Coronavirus outbreak has turned Asia’s best-performing currency into one of the worst

Yen Nee Lee

 

Thailands economy is 'too dependent' on China, says economist

 

• Thailand, Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, is “too dependent on external demand,” particularly that from China, said Trinh Nguyen, senior economist at French investment bank Natixis.
   
• She said tourism revenue from China account for around 2.7% of Thailand’s gross domestic product, while exports to China make up some 6% of the country’s GDP.
   
• The Thai baht has flipped from Asia’s strongest currency last year, to one of the region’s worst performing following an outbreak of a new coronavirus that originated from China.

 

The Thai baht has flipped from Asia’s strongest currency in 2019 to one of the region’s worst performing this year, following an outbreak of a new coronavirus that originated from China.

 

The Thai currency has lost around 4.1% against the U.S. dollar so far this year, reversing almost half of its 7.9% gains against the greenback in 2019.

 

In a bid to boost the Thai economy, the country’s central bank, the Bank of Thailand, on Wednesday unexpectedly cut its policy rate to an all-time low, and cited the virus spread as one reason that will drag down growth.

 

Full story: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/06/coronavirus-thai-baht-weakens-as-reduced-chinese-tourism-hit-thailand.html

 

-- CNBC 2020-02-07

 

 

 

CRASH BAHT CRASH.????????????

24 minutes ago, webfact said:

The Thai baht has flipped from Asia’s strongest currency last year, to one of the region’s worst performing

HAHaHahaha (sorry...)

Huzzah !!

The coronavirus fatalities are far worse than the Chinese authorities are admitting. Entire supply chains are being shut down as cities in China are in lockdown. It is not good news for anybody, with the possible exception of the medical industry.

Going to get worse before it gets better, lots going to lose out in businesses etc etc, hopefully night in life from the virus, it's only money, up/down, if people are not too heavily in debt, those in business, they will survive, but I know Thai's love to borrow.

 

The above said, will be keeping my eye on some opportunities, might be a few Rolex's up for sale cheap in a month or two or three.

3 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

The above said, will be keeping my eye on some opportunities, might be a few Rolex's up for sale cheap in a month or two or three.

Edited 2 minutes ago by 4MyEgo

You mean cheaper than the 350 baht ones on Silom road ?

8 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

Going to get worse before it gets better, lots going to lose out in businesses etc etc, hopefully night in life from the virus, it's only money, up/down, if people are not too heavily in debt, those in business, they will survive, but I know Thai's love to borrow.

 

The above said, will be keeping my eye on some opportunities, might be a few Rolex's up for sale cheap in a month or two or three.

1997 came to mind. 

45 minutes ago, tonray said:

You mean cheaper than the 350 baht ones on Silom road ?

OMG, they have dropped already........this is a good sign.

45 minutes ago, lazygourmet said:

1997 came to mind. 

I missed that one, x wife back in the old country just gave birth to our first daughter and I was completing my second degree while working as well, my head was truely up my rear, with her post natal depression as well, doctors excuse, with my reply being, nah, she's been like that, i.e. a spoilt Greek Princess since the day I met her, her father took the opportunity to kick her out when he found out about me and there I was, "sucker", true story ????

 

55 minutes ago, lazygourmet said:

1997 came to mind. 

3 months and it's back on a crazy climb again 

Gonna take more than a flu to derail it 

Why did the baht drop last week, 34.60 B to 1 euro , and now it’s back to 34 ?? Is it likely to drop again soon ? 

1 hour ago, geisha said:

Why did the baht drop last week, 34.60 B to 1 euro , and now it’s back to 34 ?? Is it likely to drop again soon ? 

Yes .

Quote

Thailands economy is 'too dependent' on China, says economist

You don't say?

5 hours ago, Lacessit said:

The coronavirus fatalities are far worse than the Chinese authorities are admitting. Entire supply chains are being shut down as cities in China are in lockdown. It is not good news for anybody, with the possible exception of the medical industry.

Time to find new supply chains and exclude China. That's good for just about everybody except the Chinese.

It's not the only flip.

 

 

All of a sudden the penniless 65 year old pensioners in Pattaya love the Chinese! ????

7 minutes ago, Happy Grumpy said:

It's not the only flip.

 

 

All of a sudden the penniless 65 year old pensioners in Pattaya love the Chinese! ????

The Baht has moved from 39 to 40 against the pound. I won't be dancing in the streets till it gets to 50. Hope I'm still around to see it.

Sheesh, since when did the baht going to 40.5 from 39.5 per pound count as something to shout about

11 minutes ago, Happy Grumpy said:

All of a sudden the penniless 65 year old pensioners in Pattaya love the Chinese! ????

Everybody loves the Chinese.

 

As long as they stay in China.

8 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Everybody loves the Chinese.

 

As long as they stay in China.

Word!

Truest thing Ive read on the forum.

putting all your eggs in one basket is never a good idea.

14 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

HAHaHahaha (sorry...)

I think It's funny for another reason, in the last 20 years several highly credible Thai folks have tried to alert the reigning governments to some of these things but were ignored / sidelined / silenced.

 

Examples, Khun Korn, just recently announced he's about to launch his own party, the ex sometimes abusive royal titled gov of the BOT, removed quickly because he was too critical. 

Almost everybody in this thread seems to really enjoy being critical of Thailand and seeing the country get hurt or damaged as result of the virus, the baht, the economy, the government. I'm guessing none of you actually live in Thailand and that you're all just posting from bedsits in Morecambe or Bangor, if that's not the case and you actually live here, why are you still here if you dislike the place so much?

“too dependent on external demand,” particularly that from China,"

There are not too many countries in the same boat.....so many rely on China for their exports.

2 minutes ago, ChrisY1 said:

“too dependent on external demand,” particularly that from China,"

There are not too many countries in the same boat.....so many rely on China for their exports.

Only 12% of Thai exports go to China, Thailand is far more dependent on the US market if anything.

http://www.worldstopexports.com/thailands-top-import-partners/

 

 

 

I for one, love the high THB and hope it remains falsely strong ????. 

 

For the expats working here and earning a good salary the high THB is great. 

Lol - meanwhile in another thread dated today: "Ministry issues new measure on strong baht" 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1147111-ministry-issues-new-measure-on-strong-baht/?utm_source=newsletter-20200207-0605&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news

Reminds me of the threads where one says the number of tourists coming to Thailand is higher than ever while another thread goes on about how tourism related businesses are suffering huge losses from lack of tourists.

1 minute ago, Kerryd said:

Lol - meanwhile in another thread dated today: "Ministry issues new measure on strong baht" 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1147111-ministry-issues-new-measure-on-strong-baht/?utm_source=newsletter-20200207-0605&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news

Reminds me of the threads where one says the number of tourists coming to Thailand is higher than ever while another thread goes on about how tourism related businesses are suffering huge losses from lack of tourists.

You don't seem to understand that all those things are possible and do in fact happen simultaneous.

 

Record tourist numbers with different spending habits from what has been seen previously means traditional existing businesses suffer, case in point the migration from package tours to FIT's.

 

And by todays measures the performance of THB, as measured against USD, is one of the poorest, that doesn't stop THB from being overly strong for historic reasons that have yet to be corrected.

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, BobbyL said:

I for one, love the high THB and hope it remains falsely strong ????. 

 

For the expats working here and earning a good salary the high THB is great. 

Same applies if you are holding property here, the property market may not be going up but the value of your property in home currency is.

It ends up being a double edged sword, if the value of my home savings goes up relative to the Baht ,the value of my condo goes down.

51 minutes ago, saengd said:

Almost everybody in this thread seems to really enjoy being critical of Thailand and seeing the country get hurt or damaged as result of the virus, the baht, the economy, the government. I'm guessing none of you actually live in Thailand and that you're all just posting from bedsits in Morecambe or Bangor, if that's not the case and you actually live here, why are you still here if you dislike the place so much?

All of us who don't work here have a vested interest, in that we have to change our currency for baht. We generally love Thailand, but we have to think about surviving financially, therefore what's bad for Thailand is generally good for the exchange rate. If it wasn't for that, I'm sure we'd all be sympathetic during the present situation.