Future outlook for Phuket

[thaibutty]

What is your personal outlook for the immediate to mid term future of Phuket?

 

Personally, I have to say I am rather pessimistic.

 

The island is heavily dependent on tourism. Last low and high season was already quite bad. The high season wasn´t much better and has been destroyed by the virus.

 

With the virus still spreading and the whole world in lock down for many more weeks and months and the economic uncertainty in the home countries of tourist  it is highly questionable if international travel will be back to normal for the coming high season. Realistically, it will be disastrous low season followed by no high season, followed with a very low low season before the return to somewhat normal.

 

My businesses is affected. I can sit it out for a few months, but if there won´t be a high season, I will have to close shop and leave.

And talking to many others, I am not alone.

 

How many local businesses can survive that? How many people will be forced to leave? 

This will affect tourism, real estate, restaurants and down the line also all the other industries where people spend money.

 

Most Thais are highly indebted. Bank interest rates are high.

 

There is a lot of people already suffering, a lot of people have lost their jobs. Unemployment payments are low anyway, and will run out after 6 months. 

What are they going to do? Properties and cars, repossessed.

 

Crime rates will rise. I already heard of 6 cases of break in attempts, stolen motorbikes from outside the house in the last 3 days alone. 

This is only the beginning.

 

Some Thais are blaming farangs for spreading the virus. Social media unveiled a lot of hatred towards farangs.

 

Will the climate change towards farangs and will we become target of attacks and robberies more often? 

 

As a family father this concerns me. Also, the financial stress is real and with very high school fees I will have to make the decision whether to spend the money on a year of school or keep the kids at home and use the money for general living expenses until things improve. Again, speaking to others, they have expressed similar concerns.

 

There is a lot of uncertainty and I am seriously considering to move back to Europe once the island reopens for travel and international flights resume more regularly.

 

What is your take on this?

 Are you considering to leave? Or are you even forced to do so? Will you sit it out? 

 

I understand this will affect different people in different ways. For retirees it won't be as severe as for those running businesses with children.

So interested to hear what you lot have to say about this ???? 

 

 

 

 

[Psimbo]

Oh jeez, here we go. Chicken Littles incoming.

 

On the brightside a lot of greedy people who over-extended themselves will fall.

[Tarukhtah]

I personally have no clue how it will go. I cross fingers. Difficult to say. Obviously not good but cannot predict. From all the list of issues you mentioned I'd be rather concerned with homeland security, attacs, robbery and any kind of racism. Because the economic problems... I think are virtually everywhere else too. Obviously Phuket more affected since it lives greatly on tourism. Not sure.

[stevenl]

Take into account it has been announced that schools won't restart till July. So that means for international schools in September.

 

Personally I am more optimistic than you and think that it will pickup sooner than you expect, but who knows. I do know I don't have the money for a bad high season.

 

Regarding crime, people keep saying that, but I have been hearing this for years and years already, and have so far not experienced or seen crime rates increase. So for the moment I am not worried about that.

[thaibutty]

5 minutes ago, stevenl said:

Take into account it has been announced that schools won't restart till July. So that means for international schools in September.

 

Personally I am more optimistic than you and think that it will pickup sooner than you expect, but who knows. I do know I don't have the money for a bad high season.

 

Regarding crime, people keep saying that, but I have been hearing this for years and years already, and have so far not experienced or seen crime rates increase. So for the moment I am not worried about that.

 

I hope it picks up earlier. Of course, it is also too early to make a prediction. I guess sometime before the start of the school year it will become more clear if we can expect a return to somewhat normal for the high season. 

 

[baansgr]

Worldwide tourism will be affected till at least year end and probably way after. Infection rates are almost doubling each week, so can expect almost 4million at next weekend, with 8 million befoe May...thats scary figures. Unless a magical vaccine is found...no one will be traveling anywhere. If I had a business with rent etc to pay, I would be inclined to quit, strip and get what you can for chattels and then start a fresh if things ever pick up. Hard call to dump a business that you've worked hard to build up but these thing a happen and you have to calculate colatoral damage.

[phuketrichard]

i figure dead till next high season. 2021

reason being, the majority of the middle class tourist that usually travel to SE asia from western countries will have lost their jobs or gone into debt

so NO vacations for awhile.

 

There going to need find new job and or get out of debt, (or both

 

EXCEPT possible the Chinese ( OHH NO>>>>>>

If i had a high end restaurant/resort/hotel i would seriously be thinking of walking away rather than go into debt to hold on till the middle class tourists return.  Will be some great deals in the next 6-10 months

 

Back packers and business travelers only for the 1st year

Edited April 10, 2020 by phuketrichard

[Sharp]

Its a tricky one to call as already stated it's a global crash so holidays will be for the very few in the near future .

 

BUT..... the Chinese will be the first boots on the ground and in mass I'm betting also sooner rather than later so if your intention is to hang on I'm there prepare your business accordingly for the demographic arriving at the airports  

[stuandjulie]

4 hours ago, stevenl said:

Take into account it has been announced that schools won't restart till July. So that means for international schools in September.

 

Personally I am more optimistic than you and think that it will pickup sooner than you expect, but who knows. I do know I don't have the money for a bad high season.

 

Regarding crime, people keep saying that, but I have been hearing this for years and years already, and have so far not experienced or seen crime rates increase. So for the moment I am not worried about that.

I wish I was more optimistic, Europeans wont be back this year, maybe high season next year. Stupid air fares etc. and Europeans will be recovering financially and that along with the new perception that all Asians will eat any old <deleted> and it is unclean will persist. That leaves the people that started this <deleted> show to return in droves, oh joy.

[LivinginKata]

Bleak outlook Butty. Tend to agree with you. Talked to an 'owner' big Bangla bar and he seems to think all his customers will be back November 2020. For sure this will be  a bumpy 12 months.  

[Agusts]

I also noticed this campaign of anti-farang sentiment all over, not just on internet or media but also the way authorities behave, their wordings and actions.... ! How is this all the farang's fault I have in idea, if anything the Chinese brought it here first, and everywhere else - Thais don't consider them farang by the way, they are kind of categorised as Asian... !

 

I think if anything the majority of cases are returning Thais, remember the 42 who tested positive after returning from some religious do in Asia, or the boxing stadium super spreader, those alone must be more than all the infected farangs they found here... !

 

 

[William Osborne]

That guy on Spotlight Thailand isnt doing anyone any favors......from what i've seen he's against all foreigners who even go out for walk.....????

 

Edited April 10, 2020 by William Osborne

[RJRS1301]

6 hours ago, baansgr said:

Worldwide tourism will be affected till at least year end and probably way after. Infection rates are almost doubling each week, so can expect almost 4million at next weekend, with 8 million befoe May...thats scary figures. Unless a magical vaccine is found...no one will be traveling anywhere. If I had a business with rent etc to pay, I would be inclined to quit, strip and get what you can for chattels and then start a fresh if things ever pick up. Hard call to dump a business that you've worked hard to build up but these thing a happen and you have to calculate colatoral damage.

Tourism wil be affected until a vaccine comes around, borders will be closed to and from certain countries. People who previously jumped on planes will have less disposable income after they have faced months of no income, and mounting debt, credit card companies will lower limits, to hedge debt levels.

People will require health travel certificates before you are able to travel to certain countries. Travel insurance will skyrocket, plane tickets will increase as fewer travellers, less planes,  fewer choices of airlines, less  people able and allowed to travel. 

 

[Sundown]

4 hours ago, LivinginKata said:

Bleak outlook Butty. Tend to agree with you. Talked to an 'owner' big Bangla bar and he seems to think all his customers will be back November 2020. For sure this will be  a bumpy 12 months.  

All his customers in november 2020? he is a very optimistic dude...

 

Phuket will collapse. No foreigners at least for 1 year no businesses running except the 40 baht soup stalls. The Thai racists will learn the harsh way..meanwhile, another guy suicided today jumping from khao rang viewpoint. 

Edited April 10, 2020 by Sundown

[gearbox]

2 hours ago, RJRS1301 said:

Tourism wil be affected until a vaccine comes around, borders will be closed to and from certain countries. People who previously jumped on planes will have less disposable income after they have faced months of no income, and mounting debt, credit card companies will lower limits, to hedge debt levels.

People will require health travel certificates before you are able to travel to certain countries. Travel insurance will skyrocket, plane tickets will increase as fewer travellers, less planes,  fewer choices of airlines, less  people able and allowed to travel. 

 

Pretty grim but fairly accurate picture. Thais can try to open some of the big markets like China and South Korea which seem to be getting less and less cases. Of course that would require Thailand to be coronavirus free itself,  which country would send their people in, only to get the virus back?  There is big mistrust between countries at this time.

[madmitch]

 

Phuket has recovered from localised problems in the past, notably the 2004 tsunami, but this is a global problem and it doesnt matter whether Phuket is ready for guests for the next high season, its a case of whether the guests will be ready to come. 

 

Personally I think it'll be a while before most tourists return, and many never will, but the Russians are an interesting case. There are still a few around and many saw it out right until the last minute before leaving, unlike other nationalities who left long before (sensibly!!!). I also had emails from Russians very disappointed that they were forced to cancel, and this was as recent as two weeks ago! I even took a Russian booking last week for November!

[Fatman666]

I sit on the same boat as you. My wife is running a small business in Bangkok. Now forced to stop. We try also to sit it out, as long as we can. I stay in Thailand for 31 years and this is the first time i been forced to prepare a plan B for me and my family. And this includes to leave Thailand, if the crisis will take a longer time. 2 days ago i was at my embassy here in Bangkok, to discuss the possibility to take my wife back to my country and start a small business over there. My opinion is that the tourism in Thailand will never be the same, as it was before. Dont count on it, that many Farangs will return to Phuket, because of the worldwide crisis. Also many farangs will not forget, how bad they treated in these difficult days. I see a new kind of tourism could starting with a lot of Chinese at Phuket, but everybody know that locals will have not much profit of the well organized chinese tour groups. Also Cambodia build up cities for the Chinese as for example in Sihanoukville to made a second Macao for them. So i think the Chinese hords will like it more there , than at Phuket, where casinos are not allowed.  Also the cost of living there is a lot chaeper than in Phuket, so the chinese touroperators will get more profit, when they direct their folk to Cambodia. I worked many years as a tour operator so i still in contact with a few guys. So prepare your plan B for you and your family is my advice to you. Good luck, stay healthy and be strong at these days.

[darrendsd]

8 hours ago, phuketrichard said:

If i had a high end restaurant/resort/hotel i would seriously be thinking of walking away rather than go into debt to hold on till the middle class tourists return.

Some of these high end resort/hotel owners would have paid tens of millions for their businesses - they are unlikely to walk away from that kind of investment

Edited April 10, 2020 by darrendsd

[ChaiyaTH]

This low season was supposed to kill a lot of business owners, the next high season was not expected to become better than previous 2 either.

Guess it is like 96% sure that nothing will be close to normal again for the next 12 months, so that includes coming high season. Unless Chinese have to make it up.

Now we are not even talking about domestic recessions, global recession or even depression. In that case it could take up to a decade in time.
If they somehow scam things up once again, we could see a relieve of a few years before still facing the same negative outlook.

To conclude, risk to sit-out and sell off during a relieve period or take the loss now and make plans to move on. 
I hope I am wrong about it but I been right more on things like these in the past decade, been saying the peak was reached since the coup.

Edited April 10, 2020 by ChaiyaTH

[ukrules]

4 hours ago, William Osborne said:

That guy on Spotlight Thailand isnt doing anyone any favors......from what i've seen he's against all foreigners who even go out for walk.....????

 

Don't pay any attention to what the Thai think

[Patong2]

Waiting to get back to Phuket as our flights have been cancelled we have been trying to forecast various scenarios

 

I think there is so much money tied up in airlines, planes, airports and tourism and it is such a cash cow for nearly all governments there will be huge pressure to get all this infrastructure moving as quickly as possible.

The jobs are also so necessary and effect all countries.

 

My pick is flying will start in July and in full sweep by November. 

 

Whether Thailand and Phuket get a share of the pent up spending will remain to be seen but I am optimistic. Look at the recovery after the Tsunami, just miraculous

Edited April 10, 2020 by Patong2

[bkk6060]

Like you suggested.

I would move back to Europe.

[Destiny1990]

How about these annoying tuktuks in Patong filling up parking spaces still there?

[Sharp]

42 minutes ago, Destiny1990 said:

How about these annoying tuktuks in Patong filling up parking spaces still there?

I think those that do come back will find out pretty quick their good ole days are gone!!

 

Im guessing there will be way less but some will only realise it after days and days of sitting it their locations without a single customer then be forced to move on or go back home. ( Hopefully) 

[phuketrichard]

2 hours ago, Patong2 said:

Waiting to get back to Phuket as our flights have been cancelled we have been trying to forecast various scenarios

 

I think there is so much money tied up in airlines, planes, airports and tourism and it is such a cash cow for nearly all governments there will be huge pressure to get all this infrastructure moving as quickly as possible.

The jobs are also so necessary and effect all countries.

 

My pick is flying will start in July and in full sweep by November. 

 

Whether Thailand and Phuket get a share of the pent up spending will remain to be seen but I am optimistic. Look at the recovery after the Tsunami, just miraculous

i was in phuket, kamala to be specific, when the tsunami hit, The next day was in phuket town and some thai's were not even aware what had happened the day before!!

I recall traveling around 1 week after and businesses were already up and running>
there were MANY less tourists at that time, for at least a year, an it really only hit hard in Phuket an Khao Lak.

This is global, People wont have money to come to thailand for at least 18--24 months

Local thai's and small business owners will be hit even harder and wont have any disposable income for vacations.

 

Be prepared for the worst and hope for the best

 

EXCEPT the Chinese

[bkk6060]

News articles such as this from International news probably are not going to help:

The title of articles on their International front page:  "Thai resort of Phuket becomes a virus hotspot."

 

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/phuket-thailand-lockdown/index.html

Edited April 11, 2020 by bkk6060

[schlog]

Never mind it is Phuket, Vienna or NY. This "Corona crisis" will last till the big boys with the deep pockets got what they want. If they also want the illiquid assets the longer it will last.

When they got it Corona will fade away in the news and life will be back to normal in weeks. Have a look at Wuhan.

 

Like 97/98, 08/09 and 2020 when blood is on the steets it's time to buy assets. Buying since march again and will go on.

 

Chinese, russians and also europeans will be back this year if we get no great depression. Our chances are not bad that it's only a bumpy recession.

 

Looking and planing forward to fly to KL in June/July to relax from our shut-lock down.

 

Interesting question is why is Phuket getting this special corona treatment? Because of the nice weather or the bigger fruits to reap?

[Tarukhtah]

My thoughts after reading your insights. I.e. this is just my personal opinion based on my gut feeling:

* I believe the few seasons before the coronavirus crisis were anyway already a bit weaker than usual. Not only in Phuket but in general in Thailand. I remember to be in November in Hua Hin... never saw so little tourists.
* In general both the Thai government, and the local business were embracing more and more Chinese and Indian tourists than Western tourists. And Western tourists were slightly also shifting to some other destinations.
* I agree with you we will see more Chinese tourists vs Western tourists in the upcoming future. And whoever knows anything about Sihanoukville knows Chinese tourists do not spread their money the same way as Western: i.e. Chinese bring money, but it gets collected by some other Chinese. Just the location is abroad ????

[wasabi]

I got hit very hard by the 2008 Great Recession. I lost my life savings and didn't have work for months. No one was hiring. Interviews were all for show. This actually happened to me when I was younger too, but it was much worse because I was older at that time and had my wife to care for. Marriage was on the rocks at that time. 

 

I remember eating at Indian buffets in America every other day just to stretch my money. They'd play Bollywood videos with beautiful Indians dancing on the hills and singing and a few times it made me break down and cry because I felt so removed from any peace whatsoever. McDonald's brought back the $1 value meal which was another life saver, well not for my arteries.

 

I am merciless in saving and making money now Tobacco, war, chemicals I don't care I will do good for those I care for and no one else. The world doesn't need to be saved from itself. I never subscribe to social justice warrior or socially responsible BS. Those things are luxuries for billionaires and snowflakes and Hippocrates. Times like this teach us how much we only have ourselves to rely on. Fortunately this time I am well funded and hoping to bolster my financial security with some well timed purchases.

 

Given my present situation I have been thinking of buying real estate in Kata. It seems logical real estate would depreciate but we all know this is not the land of logic. Many may stubbornly hold on and wait for prices to rise again (if they dip) even if it takes years and makes no financial sense to do so. I am going to wait up to a year and if the dip happens I'll be ready.

 

I am truly sorry for anyone suffering. As I've indicated I have been through it. All we can do is live, learn and try to prosper.

[poohy]

Planning on a year end return to UK