Thai economic outlook highly uncertain, risks tilted to downside - central bank

[Cake Monster]

2 hours ago, hotchilli said:

The uncertainty is coming from lack of long term government economic policy.

Both economy & tourism were on the slide long before the Covid excuse came along.

Tourism yes is a big loss but we were always told it was only a small percentage of Thailands GDP...
So why do we hear daily about tourism as if it's the only thing Thailand does.

Surely manufacturing, import/exports can prop-up the ailing GDP?

Or have we been mis-lead again?

Tourism accounts for 11.4 % of GDP if the figure is to be believed.

Exports account for a much larger percentage of GDP than this.

So if GDP from Tourism has fallen 11,4 % over the last 7 months ( March to present ) thats a reduction of over 60% GDP which equals 6% roughly o GDP right thee.\

Add  the 12% reduction in Exports over the same period and there is another 60% reduction in Export generated GDP

I reckon that its already about 12 % reduction or more already this Year

[Caldera]

Considering that this pandemic is still ongoing in most of the world (and in fact accelerating in many regions), I think any talk of recovery is premature to the extreme.

 

Tourism is a good example. You cannot possibly talk about recovery as long as the borders stay shut to tourists with no end in sight.

[spidermike007]

Foreign investments going forward, will be primarily from China, especially in light of the new draconian restrictions put into place, on protests. The world will not be viewing these measures kindly, and only the Chinese will not be put off by this, as they are accustomed to this kind of thing at home. 

 

And they keep on droning on about foreign investment, programs for foreigner to buy condos, etc. In one step, they have utterly killed that market. Expect Thailand to continue to move backwards. There was some hope, and that hope appears to have been extinguished by the 3D army. Dim, desperate, and diabolical. 

[thairookie]

Thailand will wait for their new Saviour - China.

[Grumpy John]

I think that 14/10/2020 will be a key date for Bangkokians!  Let the games commence.

[Andrew65]

3 hours ago, BestB said:

6.7 million from where? And since tourism only 11%, any particular reason why so many unemployed and first on agenda seems to be to bring the tourists back? 

There were probably millions employed in tourism. According to the Bangkok Post, tourism's 14% of GDP.

[thecyclist]

21 hours ago, keith101 said:

And yet the baht remains strong ?

Yes, why is that. Is it because they have the virus under control? 

[Dialemco]

4 hours ago, Pravda said:

Until April? 

 

I can see another "amnesty" coming. 

Maybe Good time for foreigners go back home whilst they can. 

[Henryford]

21 hours ago, keith101 said:

And yet the baht remains strong ?

Compared to the basket cases Dollar/Pound/Euro, that are printing trillions, the baht IS strong.

[Quietus]

The Thai economy is not about to collapse - there are many strong fundamentals. The baht is strong because of cash inflow- a sign that external investors see the Thai baht as a safe haven.

[craigieboy1973]

5 hours ago, nobodysfriend said:

There is simply too much uncertainty to be able to make such statements now . It is only speculation based on ' wishful thinking ' .

Too many factors about the future development of the situation cannot be known by now .

There are always at least two possibilities about the further development , it could end , or not . A vaccine that provides lasting immunity could be found , or not ...

Even if one would be found , could it ever be distributed to everybody ?

Some people will not take any vaccine , diluting it's potential effectiveness ...

The world is a mess , the people are confused and becoming more angry because of the effects of the precautions against the virus.

If one tries to be realistic and objective , it is not difficult to see that there will be many problems coming ...

 

Wow , what a precise vision on some future development ... how can they know this ?

If they knew the future , why did they not foresee what is happening now ?

This is all BS blabla without any foundation in reality .

I think in Oz we have a no jab no play for children i hope to end everything if no covid no fly .......

[billd766]

58 minutes ago, Dialemco said:

Maybe Good time for foreigners go back home whilst they can. 

I am home here in Thailand, along with my Thai wife of 20 years and our 16 year old son.

[TERMINATOR3AB]

Thailand  must  wait for a vacine or risk  its population  being badly  hurt  with this  virus

The  world  is  still  seeing many places  with Virus  still  increasing and taking hold  pushing to severe lockdowns

Ok  money is important but   human  life  should  mean  more

If need  be forget about your ecomony  and start  to feed the poor  bring in social welfare  and help the people 

The wealthy could give away  90%  of thier  wealth  and still be very rich  by world  standards

Those  in control  of Thialand  wealth  if your are honest  all relates  back to China

Good  Luck   Thailand 

[Pancho]

When the Thb crashes, I’m in.

there will be quite a few “ transfers” before that will be allowed. New legislation?

 

looking foreword to some bargaining.

i expect the jets are getting serviced, and put on standby.

I hope the people get some economic relief.

Nothing to see here, move along.

i still think the cov19 will disappear on nov 4.

[Truth Will Set You Free]

On 10/14/2020 at 3:14 PM, keith101 said:

On 10/14/2020 at 2:56 PM, webfact said:

An economic recovery will take at least two years to return to pre-pandemic levels and will be "uneven", the Bank of Thailand (BOT) said in a statement at an analysts' meeting.

And yet the baht remains strong ?

How do they expect tourist to come here, spend their hard earn money on all the restrictions and buy property when the baht is so strong? 

 

Could it be high interest rates? The Thai banks are running neck to neck at 0.2500. Does China have their hands in the pot? Is China getting a higher return by investing in in Thailand? It’s showing 0.3500-1.1000 These are low.  Thailand is trying so hard to get them in here for some unjust reason. 

 

I am surprised they are not being investigate when it comes to a strong baht and no changes during all this. 

[Mavideol]

On 10/14/2020 at 2:56 PM, webfact said:

Thailand's economic outlook remains highly uncertain with risks tilted to the downside and the central bank stands ready to use necessary tools to support an economy hammered by the coronavirus pandemic, central bank officials said on Wednesday.

not hammered only by corona virus but also by the political uncertainty unrest/confusion created by the government, Immigration requirements, dictatorship type governments do contribute to many (if not the majority) of many countries  economic & political (domestic & international )problems, it should be about time for Thai government to open their eyes/ears

[Mavideol]

I posted the news a couple days ago  555

 

https://www.khaosodenglish.com/sponsored/2020/10/08/the-post-covid-outlook-for-thailands-consumer-economy/

 

“It’ll get worse before it gets better.”

[Mavideol]

5 hours ago, Grumpy John said:

I think that 14/10/2020 will be a key date for Bangkokians!  Let the games commence.

and I know why... because it just follows the 13/10/2020  555 (just kidding, I couldn't let it pass)

[metisdead]

A post in violation of fair use policy has been removed:

 

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Off topic posts have been removed. 

[PFMills]

9 hours ago, NorthernRyland said:

6.7 million foreign tourists this year with the borders closed 

Now that is a big border hop LOL

[natway09]

Obviously many of you posting do not understand economics that well.

Every country in the world is taking a beating at presen.

Thailand being a non nanny state will come out of this a lot better than many first world countries,

due to not paying out billions in handouts & exports still over 90% of last years (Remember exports have grown substantially nearly every year for 20 years.)

Most of the grizzling on here is about me, me, me & yes my business is down 75% on last year but just gotta hang in there

[billd766]

4 hours ago, TERMINATOR3AB said:

Thailand  must  wait for a vacine or risk  its population  being badly  hurt  with this  virus

The  world  is  still  seeing many places  with Virus  still  increasing and taking hold  pushing to severe lockdowns

Ok  money is important but   human  life  should  mean  more

If need  be forget about your ecomony  and start  to feed the poor  bring in social welfare  and help the people 

The wealthy could give away  90%  of thier  wealth  and still be very rich  by world  standards

Those  in control  of Thialand  wealth  if your are honest  all relates  back to China

Good  Luck   Thailand 

This government seems to have borrowed almost the amount that it can without breaking the financial law and it is bleeding money faster than it can be replaced.

 

There are anywhere between 8 and 20 million unemployed Thais without a job or income heading for disaster whilst Prayuth plays the fiddle and Thailand slowly falls apart. To bring in social welfare would be impossible under a military government as it would destroy the ruling clique and even another military coup will not be able to fix it.

 

As for the rich, of course they could help, and in a big way too. However most of their fortunes and assets are locked away in businesses here and abroad. Individually they probably only keep perhaps 100 million baht in what you might call instant money. Taken that would give everybody in Thailand about 1 baht 50 satang each.

 

 

[steven100]

Just out  ......

[baboon]

2 hours ago, natway09 said:

Obviously many of you posting do not understand economics that well.

Every country in the world is taking a beating at presen.

Thailand being a non nanny state will come out of this a lot better than many first world countries,

due to not paying out billions in handouts & exports still over 90% of last years (Remember exports have grown substantially nearly every year for 20 years.)

Most of the grizzling on here is about me, me, me & yes my business is down 75% on last year but just gotta hang in there

Have you seen what is going on in Bangkok?

[Ventenio]

20 minutes ago, baboon said:

Have you seen what is going on in Bangkok?

YES YES  I'm in Bangkok.  I cannot believe my eyes

 

Massage Soi 3, 1 hour for 100 baht!!!   wow.  This will be make headlines!!!!  

[Albert Zweistein]

16 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

The problem is twofold.  Wuhan virus gets the headlines, and should, since it has devastated tourism.  Yet the Chinese virus obscures a much deeper evil: the obscenely high Baht.

Are there TWO virusses, the Wuhan and the Chinese ? I heard also something about Corona/Covid but you didn't mention those. Let me guess, American and fan of this bragger in the white house ?

[tgw]

23 minutes ago, Albert Zweistein said:

Are there TWO virusses, the Wuhan and the Chinese ? I heard also something about Corona/Covid but you didn't mention those. Let me guess, American and fan of this bragger in the white house ?

ROFLMAO

[Bkktodd]

17 hours ago, NorthernRyland said:

6.7 million foreign tourists this year with the borders closed? Maybe if they opened the borders tomorrow and offered free visas to China but no way that's going to happen.

They fail to mention that 6.5 million are those that are counted from January-March 2020 BEFORE the shut down.