Biden win would boost Thai economy: Research house

[webfact]

Biden win would boost Thai economy: Research house

By The Nation

 

 

If Democratic candidate Joe Biden wins the US presidential election as polls predict, it will be a boon for US, global and Thai economies, said Kasikorn Research Centre.

 

Americans are voting in the high-stakes election on Tuesday, though about 100 million have voted in advance.

 

The research house forecast that a Biden victory would lead to robust US economic growth of 3 per cent-plus in 2021. Democrats are expected to win majorities in both houses, which would enable a Biden administration to pass the budget bill and economic policies smoothly, boosting the US economy, according to Kasikorn Research.

 

Global economic risks would also drop under Biden, while the baht would strengthen from its current rate of Bt31.15/dollar.

 

“Every 1 percentage point of US growth will translate into Thai economic growth of 0.2 points,” said the research house.

 

A Biden win would also see a 10-20 per cent surge in Thai exports to the US, it forecast.

 

However, if Donald Trump wins a second term, global markets would be hit by high volatility with US stocks falling, said the research centre. 

 

The US economy would face more downside risks, while economic growth would be lower than 2 per cent next year. The dollar would weaken and the baht rise – but less than if Biden won. Thai exports to the US market would grow at less than 5 per cent.

 

However, a more cautious view of the next US presidency’s impact on Thailand was offered by Amonthep Chawla, head of research at CIMB Thai Bank. 

 

He said that if Trump wins, the US-China trade war may not escalate as the US had little room to raise duties further on Chinese imports. But trade disputes would shift to tension over technology. Trump’s policies would encourage more Chinese tech factories relocate to Thailand. And as Thailand is part of China’s production chains, Thailand needs to take advantage by joining the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), he said.

 

If Biden wins, Thailand should instead join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), he added.

 

Trade tensions between the US and China are unlikely to ease under Biden, but Chinese factories would be less likely to shift to Thailand.

 

Amonthep said both Biden and Trump favoured nationalistic policies over free trade, promoting US-made goods and job-creation. 

 

He predicted their stance would result in de-globalisation and the US losing its status as the world’s largest economy to China in the next 10 years. 

 

A Biden win would see the baht rise to Bt29-30 against the dollar, as he would borrow more money to boost the US economy, Amonthep predicted. A Trump win would push the baht up to Bt30/dollar from its current level just above Bt31.

 

Thailand needs to have a strong trade relationship with both China and the US, he added.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30397273

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-11-04

 

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[nev]

Wow what a made up load of twaddle.

[canuckamuck]

 Its going to be huge mess either way, but under Trump it will be a slower descent into dystopia.

[ezflip]

The only thing I read from this is bla bla bla "Dollar weakens, Baht up" bla bla bla. regardless of who wins.

So, essentially, it's not encouraging news for foreign tourists or existing ex-pats.

[RichardColeman]

22 minutes ago, ezflip said:

The only thing I read from this is bla bla bla "Dollar weakens, Baht up" bla bla bla. regardless of who wins.

So, essentially, it's not encouraging news for foreign tourists or existing ex-pats.

Keep it up Biden - I'm happy with dollar falling against my pound. Either way Americans are about to get a 3% currency loss in the next days against most currencies according to this. 

£/$ 1.3062+0.0148 (+1.1445%)

[Scott]

Off-topic post reported and removed.  

 

[ThailandRyan]

Thailand the Hub of fictional narratives and wishful thinking.  You gotta love the fact you can get an early morning laugh where you actually either choke on your coffee or get to spit it all over the keyboard when you read this drivel in the morning.

[MasterBaker]

Looks like Kbank knows more about US economy than Thai. They should use decimal point in numbers to make this data more believable

[J Town]

For what it's worth, Wall Street predicts a Biden win would be better for the economy.

[Jeffr2]

1 hour ago, nev said:

Wow what a made up load of twaddle.

It matches what the big houses are saying on Wall Street.  If Biden wins, and the senate flips, the US will have better chances of getting aid to those in need and the ability to start big infrastructure projects.  Makes sense.  Trump could careless about any of that.

[vandeventer]

2 hours ago, nev said:

Wow what a made up load of twaddle.

The real Americans are with Trump. It will be a clean victory for him. Thailand needs to stand on it's own two feet and get this place going again.

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

The research house forecast that a Biden victory would lead to robust US economic growth of 3 per cent-plus in 2021. Democrats are expected to win majorities in both houses, which would enable a Biden administration to pass the budget bill and economic policies smoothly, boosting the US economy, according to Kasikorn Research.

If Biden wins you can watch USA crumble.

[spidermike007]

Alot of silly babble. But, I do agree Biden would help the US economy. He would provide much needed stability, in contrast to the constant chaos of Trump, who will hopefully be ousted today. In terms of the baht, and Thailand, who knows? The economy here will suffer for years to come, unless the toxic army can be ousted, and progressive minds can rule the day. 

[DrTuner]

Biden is supposed to champion democracy. For an authoritarian state like Thailand that's bad news. Unless the protestors succeed.

[Enzian]

This just confirms my opinion of K-Bank. They have had some very opaque transaction policies that cost me bucks, so instead of argue I just took my money and left.

If Biden wins, China wins. 

As Cato the Elder almost said, China delenda est.

[Jeffr2]

 

1 hour ago, Enzian said:

This just confirms my opinion of K-Bank. They have had some very opaque transaction policies that cost me bucks, so instead of argue I just took my money and left.

If Biden wins, China wins. 

As Cato the Elder almost said, China delenda est.

 China already won.  Trump's going after deals there and Ivanka got dozens of patents on her trip with Daddy several years ago.

[shackleton]

4 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Keep it up Biden - I'm happy with dollar falling against my pound. Either way Americans are about to get a 3% currency loss in the next days against most currencies according to this. 

£/$ 1.3062+0.0148 (+1.1445%)

 

[shackleton]

Just now, shackleton said:

 

Hope your correct on the pound going up

Its now $1.29.64

The next few days/weeks  will tell

 

[Sydebolle]

Thailand and its boosting economy?

Look at Bangkok, look at Thai people and look at what could be improved domestically. The US can be a nasty element in breathing down the Thai neck but ultimately the Thais are responsible for their country and its wellbeing. So dont look for a scapegoat again, it is neither Trump nor Biden. Latter being an American affair to be decided by the American people; the rest of the planet can stand by and see what the Yankees come up with this time ???? 

[Traubert]

5 hours ago, nev said:

Wow what a made up load of twaddle.

Isnt it?

[rwill]

He probably doesn't even know where Thailand is on the map....

 

When we lived in the USA people would ask my wife where she was from.  She would answer Thailand.  Lots of them would reply, Oh.  You're from Taiwan.

[Searat7]

Betting odds in USA just reversed and Trump is given a 72.9% chance of winning. The stock market is up again and futures are very good. Supposedly the Chinese yuan is tanking too (saw this on tv). Why does the Democratic Party put up the wrong candidates two times in a row ? 

[kevin612]

Stock market will fall if Biden wins, but it helps Thailand on the export; this is true

[Traubert]

11 minutes ago, Searat7 said:

Betting odds in USA just reversed and Trump is given a 72.9% chance of winning. The stock market is up again and futures are very good. Supposedly the Chinese yuan is tanking too (saw this on tv). Why does the Democratic Party put up the wrong candidates two times in a row ? 

It better hadnt because its pegged to the dollar.

[onthedarkside]

Numerous posts and replies to them have been removed, including for posting false information, name calling, trolling, off-topic comments, etc.

 

[Bad boy 561]

4 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

It matches what the big houses are saying on Wall Street.  If Biden wins, and the senate flips, the US will have better chances of getting aid to those in need and the ability to start big infrastructure projects.  Makes sense.  Trump could careless about any of that.

In need where,China,Russia,Mexico ?biden doesn’t give a <deleted> about Americans 

[Jeffr2]

2 minutes ago, Bad boy 561 said:

In need where,China,Russia,Mexico ?biden doesn’t give a <deleted> about Americans 

What?  Trump's the one responsible for thousands of deaths.  He even admitted on tape to lying to the public.  Not sure what you're on about.

[khunPer]

I know it would probably not improve my economy, but how would i help Thailand if baht goes up to 29 against $ instead of 31...????

[The Theory]

Biden !!!! ???????????? We will just get 8 more years of Obama (flat) No boost, no gain. 
 

[digger70]

10 hours ago, webfact said:

Biden win would boost Thai economy: Research house

Yea,yea,yea, What a load of rot,  Nobody  knows what will happen  doesn't matter Who Gets the Votes. Nobody will know what the Dollar or the THB  will do against the rest of the Currencies.

Nobody  has got Cristal Balls ,(not that I know of) So why all the Hipe , Speculation.

Wait and observe.   ????