SURVEY: How long before tourism returns to normal?

[Scott]

With a  vaccine on the horizon, how long before tourist numbers return to normal levels?  Please feel free to leave a comment, including any restrictions you think that Thailand  may put on tourists in the short term.

 

[skorts]

Whilst the vaccine will no doubt help the key driver to the return of mass tourism in Thailand is the end of compulsory quarantine. The vast majority of tourists in Thailand come for up to 2 to 3 weeks.
Are any of these tourists going to spend 14 nights in quarantine which they have to pay for? Of course they will not. 
It would be interesting to know how many of the 39.9 million tourists who visited Thailand in 2019 fall into this category. 
British Airways (BA) cancelling the re-introduction of flights from London to Bangkok until 1st November 2021is quite telling. This was done before the latest surge of cases in the U.K. and introduction of Tier 4 restrictions. 
BA clearly thinks the route is not viable until late next year, at the earliest. 
Even once the vaccine starts to be rolled out to the Thai population from 1st May next year it will take many months to achieve the levels of protection to achieve herd immunity. 
Thailand has also only ordered enough vaccine at this stage for 13 million people (2 doses each) so that represents only c.20% of the population. Whilst it will understandably be given to front line line health workers and the most vulnerable is this enough protection of the Thai population for compulsory quarantine to be removed?

The dilemma facing the Thai Government is the vaccine does not stop people who have had it from passing on the virus so compulsory quarantine with compulsory testing during that period is the only way to be sure people entering Thailand do not have the virus. 
I think it will be November 2021 at the earliest until any form of mass tourism returns but the numbers will be driven by the need to quarantine on arrival. 

 

[rwill]

Your first question should say next year, not this year.

[WineOh]

It will be a decade before it returns to anything resembling 'normal tourist levels.'

[mr mr]

anyone who thinks tourism will return to normal is living in a dream world. the virus has fundamentally changed our species. mass tourism from the west will not be coming back to thailand like it was before. focus on your new market and move on. china and india. 

 

 

[brommers]

The powers that be are determined to change the face of Thai tourism. They are letting the lower end of the local tourism industry collapse in a quite deliberate way and want to move this country up-market and lower volume. All well and good if you want to let your innate nationalism rule your thinking and reduce the impact of foreigners on "Thai culture". But in the process there will be gazillions of unemployed people who are not suitable for other forms of employment. I am thinking of those employed in small accomodation establishments, food stalls, souvenir markets and other small enterprises. The shockingly outdate education system has utterly failed to equip them for other forms of work and so they will simply be thrown onto the jobless heap.

[internationalism]

it would never be the same "normal" tourism from the previous years.

there would be travel certificates, confirming recent vaccination, negative test.

Each country might require their own certified vaccination, and not one of many hundreds, which will appear on the market soon.

So consulates will be handling vaccinations.

As majority of airlines will get bankrupt, scaled down, flying once every week, there would be less competition and airfare sore, beyond budget traveller means. So the majority would be short regional travel, not intercontinental one. For Thailand it will mean growing Chinese, Indian and possible Russian tourism, on top of steady Korean, Japanese.

Intercontinental travel would not be for 2-3 weeks, but 2-3 months would make financial sense.

 

 

[Seeall]

9 hours ago, Scott said:

With a  vaccine on the horizon, how long before tourist numbers return to normal levels?  Please feel free to leave a comment, including any restrictions you think that Thailand  may put on tourists in the short term.

 

Question and all replies a load of hot air.... nobody knows...  remember Trump saying it will all be over for easter?  ha ha .. just blah blah..

[scorecard]

29 minutes ago, Liverpoolfan said:

It will be a decade before it returns to anything resembling 'normal tourist levels.'

 

Decade?

 

But I suspect there will be ongoing new requirements to quote vaccine certificate numbers, show the certificate at check-in or boarding and show the certificate at passport check on arrival.

 

Maybe also at some destinations (maybe including Thailand) a very rapid Covid 19 test at departure and/or arrival point, and cannot board / cannot deplane until negative result seen. 

 

Quarantine; maybe it will continue in some destinations for quite a while, how many days unknown.

 

In other words there will be a new normal.

 

 

[Seeall]

13 minutes ago, internationalism said:

it would never be the same "normal" tourism from the previous years.

there would be travel certificates, confirming recent vaccination, negative test.

Each country might require their own certified vaccination, and not one of many hundreds, which will appear on the market soon.

So consulates will be handling vaccinations.

As majority of airlines will get bankrupt, scaled down, flying once every week, there would be less competition and airfare sore, beyond budget traveller means. So the majority would be short regional travel, not intercontinental one. For Thailand it will mean growing Chinese, Indian and possible Russian tourism, on top of steady Korean, Japanese.

Intercontinental travel would not be for 2-3 weeks, but 2-3 months would make financial sense.

 

 

 

13 minutes ago, internationalism said:

it would never be the same "normal" tourism from the previous years.

there would be travel certificates, confirming recent vaccination, negative test.

Each country might require their own certified vaccination, and not one of many hundreds, which will appear on the market soon.

So consulates will be handling vaccinations.

As majority of airlines will get bankrupt, scaled down, flying once every week, there would be less competition and airfare sore, beyond budget traveller means. So the majority would be short regional travel, not intercontinental one. For Thailand it will mean growing Chinese, Indian and possible Russian tourism, on top of steady Korean, Japanese.

Intercontinental travel would not be for 2-3 weeks, but 2-3 months would make financial sense.

 

 

Not make snce at all when most cant affort to have more than a couple of weeks off.....  and dont think the high earners can, they have more stress and less time than most...  have you never heard the saying  : the poor have time and the rich do not?

[Dagfinnur Traustason]

Nice one! It´s same like asking: How long will it take for the pandemic to be over? ???? (After that  you add 5 years for good measurement)

(If above do not work, do not try another version. It´s impossible and the answer will be never.)

[Dagfinnur Traustason]

2 minutes ago, Seeall said:

remember Trump saying it will all be over for easter?

He has always been good throwing eggs in his own face.

[GroveHillWanderer]

My answer would be, "none of the above."

 

I reckon Tourism won't return to normal until a large percentage of both Thailand's and the world's population has been vaccinated and I don't see that happening within the next year.

 

I would hazard a guess that it will take around 2-3 years to reach a high enough level of vaccination world-wide, for the authorities here to allow tourism levels similar to what they were before.

[rwill]

We have had many pandemics in the past.  Things always went back to normal.  Humans have short memories.

Like who remembers Russia and the USA shooting down airliners?

[kingstonkid]

The problem is that not everyone can get the vaccine there are side effects that are limiting.

 

Thailand will be back to operating but think what we had before is go ne

[scorecard]

14 minutes ago, Seeall said:

 

Not make snce at all when most cant affort to have more than a couple of weeks off.....  and dont think the high earners can, they have more stress and less time than most...  have you never heard the saying  : the poor have time and the rich do not?

Valid point, how many people, world wide, will quickly have the funds for international travel?

[Andy from Kent]

55 minutes ago, Liverpoolfan said:

It will be a decade before it returns to anything resembling 'normal tourist levels.'

 

 

You have a far reaching crystal ball. ????

[Pilotman]

10 hours ago, Scott said:

With a  vaccine on the horizon, how long before tourist numbers return to normal levels?  Please feel free to leave a comment, including any restrictions you think that Thailand  may put on tourists in the short term.

 

the virus is mutating, the vaccine has a short shelf life of impact and then back to square pone.  World wide tourism, as we have know it, is probably not coming back for a generation. It will  be regional tourism, Asia for the Asians, Europe for the Europeans, and domestic tourism.  Long haul in any meaningful ,numbers may be dead and gone for decades. 

[FritsSikkink]

10 hours ago, Scott said:

With a  vaccine on the horizon, how long before tourist numbers return to normal levels?  Please feel free to leave a comment, including any restrictions you think that Thailand  may put on tourists in the short term.

 

"Normal tourism will return this year, probably in the second half."

Probably mean next year as it is December.

[4MyEgo]

As the saying goes, "how long is a piece of string"

 

The red light districts of Thailand will mostly be reduced to around 30% and when the word travels, I think you will find a lot of tourists going elsewhere, I mean let's face it, apart from families wanting to come to Thailand because it's cheap and within close proximity to other countries, the largest piece of western tourism is single horny blokes IMO.

 

The above said, I can't see anywhere near the numbers the Thai's were "allegedly" receiving pre Covid-19.

 

What does all of this mean, there will be mass hotel closures, and naturally many unemployed adding to the already massive unemployment list.

 

Perhaps we will see Thailand become a retirement destination and a family get away in the future, but as for red light districts bringing the bulk of the westerners in, I think it's time for Thailand to focus on the wealthier Indians and Chinese for the future.

 

What will Thailand do for those business owners who go belly up and those unemployed, well, I can't see much, survival of the fittest is usually the way it goes here doesn't it ?

[sammieuk1]

However long it takes one thing is for absolute sure it will be elongated and exacerbated by this government trying to gouge out some more coin  ????

[Pilotman]

2 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

As the saying goes, "how long is a piece of string"

 

The red light districts of Thailand will mostly be reduced to around 30% and when the word travels, I think you will find a lot of tourists going elsewhere, I mean let's face it, apart from families wanting to come to Thailand because it's cheap and within close proximity to other countries, the largest piece of western tourism is single horny blokes IMO.

 

The above said, I can't see anywhere near the numbers the Thai's were "allegedly" receiving pre Covid-19.

 

What does all of this mean, there will be mass hotel closures, and naturally many unemployed adding to the already massive unemployment list.

 

Perhaps we will see Thailand become a retirement destination and a family get away in the future, but as for red light districts bringing the bulk of the westerners in, I think it's time for Thailand to focus on the wealthier Indians and Chinese for the future.

 

What will Thailand do for those business owners who go belly up and those unemployed, well, I can't see much, survival of the fittest is usually the way it goes here doesn't it ?

Here is a thought, you mentioned retirement here in LOS.  My pessimistic view is that Thailand will make it increasingly difficult for new retirement visas.  Once we present lot shuffle off to the quantum world, they will slowly reduce old folks until none are left. Just a theory but not an unrealistic view. 

[DaLa]

Not just tourism , but travel and freedom of movement generally as my business (not tourist related) depends on it; as soon as possible.

 

My two concerns are that whatever we previously defined as ‘normal’ will never return, ie there will be major changes to our lifestyles. Secondly and an even more concerning scenario is that there is a hidden reason or agenda behind this.

[CygnusX1]

45 minutes ago, Seeall said:

Question and all replies a load of hot air.... nobody knows...  remember Trump saying it will all be over for easter?  ha ha .. just blah blah..

But we still have to make our best guess, just so we can plan for the future. I’m having an expensive multi-outlet AC installed in my flat, and will buy a super gaming PC once the new graphics cards are available, as I’m guessing that I’m going to be imprisoned in Australia for at least the next few years. Hope it turns out that I’ll have wasted my money.

[4MyEgo]

10 minutes ago, Pilotman said:

Here is a thought, you mentioned retirement here in LOS.  My pessimistic view is that Thailand will make it increasingly difficult for new retirement visas.  Once we present lot shuffle off to the quantum world, they will slowly reduce old folks until none are left. Just a theory but not an unrealistic view. 

 

I think opposite to you, they need the retirees as much as they need the tourists, and if tourism drops off, they have to make up for the losses, in other words, they need the money, remember when some dickh's said that they didn't need tourists, well ah....hello, what has been in the media for the past 12 months, nothing short of a slaughter, they need us more than we need them IMO.

[shackleton]

Until they get rid of the Quarantine restrictions plus the local population has had the vaccine tourists returning to Thailand seems far away

Earliest not  using my Crystal ball 2022 

[1FinickyOne]

1 hour ago, mr mr said:

mass tourism from the west will not be coming back to thailand like it was before. focus on your new market and move on. china and india. 

If you made this prediction 10 years ago, you might have been on to something... predicting yesterdays news is no a difficult task... 

[1FinickyOne]

2 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

they need us more than we need them IMO.

makes that 20 baht noodle soup taste any better? 

[Pilotman]

1 minute ago, 4MyEgo said:

 

I think opposite to you, they need the retirees as much as they need the tourists, and if tourism drops off, they have to make up for the losses, in other words, they need the money, remember when some dickh's said that they didn't need tourists, well ah....hello, what has been in the media for the past 12 months, nothing short of a slaughter, they need us more than we need them IMO.

Hmm, not al all sure about that. Not at all sure, because when you see Pattaya maxed out with Thai tourists each weekend and trade booming, not at all sure that they need us at all. I also see plenty of money and activity around all the major cities. Many many new high end cars on the roads, driven by middle class Thais and even less well off locals. lots of trucks, lots of new build going on.  Little to none of that is expat related.  I think a great realignment is going on that is now almost unstoppable and we expats will get crushed in the middle of it. Face it, they dont need us half as much as some want to believe. 

[OneMoreFarang]

Maybe about half a year ago I read an article that British Airways was "storing" lots of their planes (I think they do that somewhere in the dry desert). The idea was and probably still is to review that situation in 2023. That's a long time from now...