Thailand reports 2,438 coronavirus cases, daily record of 11 deaths

[ThailandRyan]

13 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Independent action is being taken. My Thai GF has informed me if I don't get back to her village before 11 am tomorrow, I may be denied entry - the village is going into lockdown. How long that lockdown will last is another question.

Two villagers and a visiting Bangkok relative have been carted off by ambulance to the government hospital in Chiang Rai, COVID infected.

Be safe

[Lacessit]

2 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Be safe

Thanks for that. I'm just wondering where is safe in Thailand, the government ignored scientific advice ( where have we heard that before ? ) and permitted interprovincial travel for Songkhran. The rise in infections is doing very well in correlating with the incubation period for travellers.

[ThailandRyan]

9 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Thanks for that. I'm just wondering where is safe in Thailand, the government ignored scientific advice ( where have we heard that before ? ) and permitted interprovincial travel for Songkhran. The rise in infections is doing very well in correlating with the incubation period for travellers.

That is a good question, where is safe.  Isolated at-home? In the village?  Who knows. Sucks all the parks and pools are closed, yet I do understand their reasoning, well I try to at least.

[Bkk Brian]

 

2 hours ago, Sheryl said:

 

 

 

GitHub gets its data from MoPH.

 

There was indeed a huge jump in numbers being tested daily starting around 6 April. Because contrary to what some on this site insist, the MoPH does expand testing in response to  rising numbers of cases. It does not, as soem claim, try to limit case detection by limiting testing (which would in any event be a futile endeavor since it would feed the spread of the epidemic).

 

These are the actual number of tests done per day, from the MoPH lab site (the bottom row with totals is mine, rest is a straight download from the MoPH lab servcie)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Look at the documentation on the excel file: It clearly states for repeat testing also, we know that a positive case has multiple tests before they are released from Hospital. Its impossible to calculate the positive count percentage when the test figures are too high because its listing all tests inlcuding repeats and including all others ie arrivals on planes how many hundred a day etc https://service.dmsc.moph.go.th/labscovid19/indexen.php

 

The total lab test from the raw data is 3,917,139

The total lab tests from official filtered daily tests for walk in and pro active is 1,942,990

 

Edited April 25, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[Danderman123]

2 hours ago, Sheryl said:

Same patient is not repeat tested in a given day. (And the data you respond to is incorrect, the actual number is currently over 50,000 a day).

 

Positivity rate is readily available from sites already posted in this thread. Currently stands at about 4%. Up from 1-2% before this wave began but still so far under the 5% benchmark. The MoPH is well aware of the significance of positivity rate and expands testing accordingly. It us just that the massive nationwide testing some here are insisting should be done, is not indicated by the positivity rate.

I don't see the same data as you.

 

To determine positivity rate, the numerator is the number of random samples, and the denominator is the number of positive results from those random samples. I don't know where to find that data, and the Github site does not point me there.

[Bkk Brian]

2 hours ago, Sheryl said:

 

The official CCSA reports you refer to do nto contain the number of tests, period. You are confusing numbers of PUI with numbers tested.

 

It does not need filtering into categories to calculate total tests done and positivity rate nationwide. 

 

Various categorizations (e.g. by location) can be found here https://github.com/djay/covidthailand/#tests-per-confirmed-case

The official figures I'm referring to do not give the total overall lab tests no they only give the total lab tests from Hosp walk ins and pro active testing, thats why they are different.

 

Yes he is getting scraping figures direct into Github from https://service.dmsc.moph.go.th/labscovid19/indexen.php

 

He is no doubt very good at his coding and data gathering and finding all the data to get the total tests per lab. He is not taking into account that those totals include many repeat tests and many tests from arrival/departures etc. The totals are just that Sheryl. They need filtering and put into catigories. 

 

Thats exactly what the daily official updates do, they also give total Lab tests but those total lab tests are very different in number because they are filtered into the lab test for walk in hosp and pro active testing only. This is where its then possible to calculate the positive rate.

 

I'm not giving credibility to a gentleman with a website and publishing his scraped data onto Github over the officall figures given daily who have done the correct calculations before publishing.

 

He says the official updates have titled the total lab tests wrong, really? They been published that way from the first confirmed case. They go all the way back to Jan and the first case ever detected in Thailand, the total lab tests then are added daily.

[Sheryl]

38 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I don't see the same data as you.

 

To determine positivity rate, the numerator is the number of random samples, and the denominator is the number of positive results from those random samples. I don't know where to find that data, and the Github site does not point me there.

It is the reverse. The numerator is positive cases and the denominayor is total tests.

 

Site whete you can get that has already been posted.

[Dogmatix]

11 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Horrible numbers, I think we're going to range in the late 2000's for another day or so before unfortunately dog legging up to take us into the 3000's. 

 

Hospital beds going to be at critical stage. I'm disgusted at this Governments lack of will do do the right thing.

 

Puerto Rico with a population of about 4 million started this month with 200 and is now up to 7,000.  I seem to remember that Italy with the original European variant ramped up to 20,000 cases a day exponentially about 3 weeks after breaking 2,000.  They had a fairly strick lockdown of Bergamo where it started there.  I hope it will not be so bad, as Thailand is lurching into an effective lock down even though the government doesn't want to eat its words and call it that.  But given the total lack of preparation over the last year, even 3,000 a day is enough to overwhelm ICUs which have already refused to admit people who subsequently died.

 

Edited April 25, 2021 by Dogmatix

[rabas]

53 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

The official figures I'm referring to do not give the total overall lab tests no they only give the total lab tests from Hosp walk ins and pro active testing, thats why they are different.

 

Yes he is getting scraping figures direct into Github from https://service.dmsc.moph.go.th/labscovid19/indexen.php

 

He is no doubt very good at his coding and data gathering and finding all the data to get the total tests per lab. He is not taking into account that those totals include many repeat tests and many tests from arrival/departures etc. The totals are just that Sheryl. They need filtering and put into catigories. 

 

Thats exactly what the daily official updates do, they also give total Lab tests but those total lab tests are very different in number because they are filtered into the lab test for walk in hosp and pro active testing only. This is where its then possible to calculate the positive rate.

 

I'm not giving credibility to a gentleman with a website and publishing his scraped data onto Github over the officall figures given daily who have done the correct calculations before publishing.

 

He says the official updates have titled the total lab tests wrong, really? They been published that way from the first confirmed case. They go all the way back to Jan and the first case ever detected in Thailand, the total lab tests then are added daily.

Sorry if I'm repeating something but from your great link, it seems that Thai experts have already worked out testing data ratios. These images don't have dedicated links, they are found at the bottom of your link by scrolling left/right. So I will post the images.

 

1. Total govt + private covid testing and rate of positives found

2. Total private covid testing and rate of positives found

key:

green= daily no. of tests

black= positives found/tests % ratio

brown=sum of tests

 

These values seem similar to the Github website data. They show the usual 1 week delay.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 25, 2021 by rabas

[Dogmatix]

The Royal Bangkok Sports Club that closed over Songkran for head to toe disinfecting is going into virtual shut down tomorrow after two COVID patients' timelines included visits to RBSC last week.  One of them was 48 years old and the other only 9, poor little mite.

[Bkk Brian]

6 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

Sorry if I repeat something, but from your great link, it seems that Thai experts have already worked out testing data ratios. These images don't have dedicated links, they are found by going to the bottom of your link and scrolling left/right. So I will post the images.

 

1. Total govt + private covid testing and rate of positives found

2. Total private covid testing and rate of positives found

green= daily no. of tests

black= positive found/test

brown=sum of tests

 

These values seem to be close to the Github website.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes I downloaded those a few hours ago and asked my wife to translate, the problem is they are not showing the actual daily cases found, for example the best one to look at is the daily chart with they've calculated the detection rate, but I do not see the daily positive count?

[Bkk Brian]

double post

 

Edited April 25, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[rabas]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Yes I downloaded those a few hours ago and asked my wife to translate, the problem is they are not showing the actual daily cases found, for example the best one to look at is the daily chart with they've calculated the detection rate, but I do not see the daily positive count?

Yes, they do not given the numerical 'positives' found but the Thai does use the word 'found'. You could back calculate positives from the graph.

 

That may be accurate enough to determine if they are showing positive cases found or simply positive tests.  At the end of the day, I assume that these are the ratios the Thai epidemiologists want to use for their decision making.

 

 

 

[rabas]

8 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

the problem is they are not showing the actual daily cases found,

Just to clarify, you already know the real daily cases found.  Then work from the tests/day and ratios in the graphs to determine if real daily cases found is the same (or not) as presumed positives used to calculate the ratios in the graph.

[Bkk Brian]

14 minutes ago, rabas said:

Yes, they do not given the numerical 'positives' found but the Thai does use the word 'found'. You could back calculate positives from the graph.

 

That may be accurate enough to determine if they are showing positive cases found or simply positive tests.  At the end of the day, I assume that these are the ratios the Thai epidemiologists want to use for their decision making.

 

 

 

They may use the word found yes but its still not given in daily figures.

 

I do know what it says in the official raw data documentation that it includes repeat tests so I presume what they say is correct and if so then its impossible to get an accurate positive rate from those.

 

At the end of the day for me personally I will stick with the official released daily figures from the same organisation to calculate the tests, after all they release for that purpose, if they were inaccurate then it would be fake news. 

 

I pay no credibility however to a github upload with scraped content that scrapes it from that raw data and he makes no mention what so ever of people tested versus multiple tests per person and total tests.

 

Anyway never easy, however as I mentioned before the daily reports the CCSA are great compared to many countries and I rely on the figures they release.

Edited April 25, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, rabas said:

Just to clarify, you already know the real daily cases found.  Then work from the tests/day and ratios in the graphs to determine if real daily cases found is the same (or not) as presumed positives used to calculate the ratios in the graph.

That makes it all muddy when official figures are already released daily for a reason. To many variables to make a credible chart and estimation from that in my view as it could be debated to death and end up a never ending bone of contention.

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, Sheryl said:

It is the reverse. The numerator is positive cases and the denominayor is total tests.

 

Site whete you can get that has already been posted.

To summarize the discussion, there is a GitHub site that scrapes the daily Thai data to collect all tests. Dividing the daily positive cases by the GitHub total (50,000+ tests a day) gives a very low positivity ratio (4%).

 

However, the Thai MOPH sites provides numbers for daily testing, and this results in 16,000 tests per day. Using this data results in a much higher positivity ratio, more than 10%.

 

The only way to know which dataset is correct is to see if the number of new infections rises or falls over the next 10 days.

Edited April 25, 2021 by Danderman123

[Jeffr2]

7 hours ago, Sheryl said:

It is the reverse. The numerator is positive cases and the denominayor is total tests.

 

Site whete you can get that has already been posted.

The links you provided were great!  50k tests per day.  A great way to show deniers that Thailand is actually doing some testing.  Actually, doing a lot of testing.

 

Thanks!!!

[ThailandRyan]

7 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

The links you provided were great!  50k tests per day.  A great way to show deniers that Thailand is actually doing some testing.  Actually, doing a lot of testing.

 

Thanks!!!

That is testing as of now, and not like the testing or lack of before, no denying that now is there.  The biggest issue now is finding beds for those that need assistance and not waiting many days or they will continue to die and spread the virus at home. I hate saying I told you so, and there is no denying that either.

[Bkk Brian]

Latest published official lab testing just published in chart. https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/situation.php

 

Note

 

There are only two official sources released by the Dept of Medical Sciences.

 

1. The first are the daily updates where I have taken the chart information, these are the filtered results of actual people tested, not repeat testing. They are totaled from PUI (people under investigation) who are waiting for their lab tests. The running total of people tested since the start of the first case found last year is currently 1,965,890 https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/situation.php

 

2. The same website but separate link takes you to the raw data. The current total of lab tests so far since the first case was found is 3,917,137 (last updated on the 17th April) On the 17th April there were a total of 55,365 lab tests performed. These lab tests include repeat testing and testing for arrivals/departure for Thailand.

https://service.dmsc.moph.go.th/labscovid19/indexen.php As you can see there is a lot of testing going behind the scenes with all the repeats etc.

 

 

 

[bwpage3]

I believe the situation is much worse than is being reported to prevent panic.

 

Thailand does not have the test kits available or the capacity to test more than a couple of thousand a day.

 

What if they did have the capacity to test 50,000 a day?

 

I think you would see the numbers rise significantly.

 

You have to think it is odd, how Thailand is so physically close to China, has millions of Chinese visitors each year, tons of wet markets, yet has the lowest Covid amount of any country?

 

Under-reporting and lack of text kits.

 

You won't find Covid in a country of 66,000,000 people testing only 2,000 a day.  (33, 000 days to test them all / 365 days a year = 90.41 years

 

Look at the USA and other countries with millions of tests and ask yourself why, this far into the pandemic, Thailand has tested as few as they have?

 

This government will spin any news in their favor as to hang on the power and prevent a panic from kicking  them out of power.

 

 

 

 

[anchadian]

Thai News Reports

 

@ThaiNewsReports

·

9m

 

 

 

Chonburi Public Health Office has just just announced that they have 104 new cases today. The total for this month is now 1,965. Most new cases in Bang Lamung (62), Chonburi City (18), and Sriracha (14) #COVID19 #โควิด19 #Thailand

[chiman]

Its like the center fielder (baseball) who catches the ball, its a beautiful running catch, but then stood there and celebrated by himself and forgot that there were people on 2nd and 3rd.  

[anchadian]

Thai News Reports

 

@ThaiNewsReports

 

 

BREAKING: Thai health officials reporting 2,048 new cases and eight more deaths on Monday. There are 25,767 people in care: 20,461 in hospitals & 5,306 in field hospitals. There are now 563 people in a serious condition & 150 on ventilators #COVID19 #Thailand #RIP

 

 

9:06 am · 26 Apr 2021·Twitter for iPad

[ThailandRyan]

Weekend slowdown as shown in the past. Let's see which way things swing tomorrow.

[Jeffr2]

16 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Weekend slowdown as shown in the past. Let's see which way things swing tomorrow.

Yeah, this is an easy trend to spot.  As you say, the next few days will be telling.  Daily numbers aren't what's important.  It's the trend line.  Up or down...

[Sheryl]

11 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

To summarize the discussion, there is a GitHub site that scrapes the daily Thai data to collect all tests. Dividing the daily positive cases by the GitHub total (50,000+ tests a day) gives a very low positivity ratio (4%).

 

However, the Thai MOPH sites provides numbers for daily testing, and this results in 16,000 tests per day. Using this data results in a much higher positivity ratio, more than 10%.

 

The only way to know which dataset is correct is to see if the number of new infections rises or falls over the next 10 days.

 

There is also an MoPH site that gives the raw testing data which is  what Git Hub uses, one can download it directly from MoPH.  https://service.dmsc.moph.go.th/labscovid19/indexen.php

(scroll down to the bottom)

 

These are numbers of tests,  including repeat tests. It accurately reflects the volume of tests being done but does not tell you the number of people who have ever been tested since some people (mainly those in quarantine and those whose initial test was positive) will have been tested more than once.  I do not believe that repeat  tests can account for the huge difference (>30,000 in recent days) between the lab tests reported and the figure that some are taking to mean testing from the "situation reports". 

[Sheryl]

3 hours ago, bwpage3 said:

I believe the situation is much worse than is being reported to prevent panic.

 

Thailand does not have the test kits available or the capacity to test more than a couple of thousand a day.

 

What if they did have the capacity to test 50,000 a day?

 

 

They do have the capacity to test 50,000 a day and have perfromed more than that number of tests daily for the past week or so.

[Gandtee]

45 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

They do have the capacity to test 50,000 a day and have perfromed more than that number of tests daily for the past week or so.

Capacity for 50,000 per day. How can they have done more than their capacity per day?????

[bwpage3]

9 hours ago, Sheryl said:

 

They do have the capacity to test 50,000 a day and have perfromed more than that number of tests daily for the past week or so.

The running total of people tested since the start of the first case found last year is currently 1,965,890 https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/situation.php

 

66,000,000 - 1,965,890 = 64,034,011 people divided by 50,000 tests per day = 1,280 days/365 days in a year = 3.50 years to test the population (If they have the test kits to test 50,000 per day every day for the next 3.50 years.

 

 

Edited April 26, 2021 by bwpage3