Pattaya A Dead or Dying City?

[Pilotman]

2 minutes ago, rott said:

Ha ha climbing down now. Not as crabby as he was earlier on.

who me or him? In fairness, if it is me, I am very very hot, the dogs are driving me crazy because so are they and  Mrs P has been eating Durian. I've also run out of wine and I can't be bothered to go and get some more.  

[jacko45k]

6 minutes ago, Pilotman said:

In fairness, if it is me, I am very very hot, 

The gardener was round and I had to close all the doors and windows, it seemed sensible to turn on the beast (my largest AC unit).....lovely and cool.

[Pilotman]

1 minute ago, jacko45k said:

The gardener was round and I had to close all the doors and windows, it seemed sensible to turn on the beast (my largest AC unit).....lovely and cool.

Trouble with that idea is that Mrs P is banished to the veranda to eat Durian and if the aircon was on she may insist on coming inside. I would rather be hot frankly. Bit off topic I know. 

[rott]

It is hot, but rain forecast for tomorrow and the next few days. So it should happen sometime soon. And yes????. 

[jacko45k]

3 minutes ago, Pilotman said:

Trouble with that idea is that Mrs P is banished to the veranda to eat Durian and if the aircon was on she may insist on coming inside. I would rather be hot frankly. Bit off topic I know. 

My Mrs was in her hammock until she learned the AC was on.... as to Durian, more likely to be me eating it, Mrs hates it, I am rather partial.

Sort of on topic, to be whittling on about nothing as we are, really expresses life in Pattaya now... there isn't really any.  

[Pilotman]

4 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

My Mrs was in her hammock until she learned the AC was on.... as to Durian, more likely to be me eating it, Mrs hates it, I am rather partial.

Sort of on topic, to be whittling on about nothing as we are, really expresses life in Pattaya now... there isn't really any.  

It passes the time. 

[jacko45k]

13 minutes ago, Pilotman said:

It passes the time. 

Until beer o'clock!

[Pilotman]

1 minute ago, jacko45k said:

Until beer o'clock!

I'm out of wine remember.  

[Eindhoven]

2 hours ago, rott said:

Having spent many years in the bars and Sois of the Pattaya "ghetto" I have seen little to no evidence of drugs, exploitation and depression. 

As for not liking customers I would say that Thais can hate foreigners as much as the next person. 

 

I don't spend any time in the bars; but I have talked to many over the years. You must be wearing blinkers. They are people. I have seen very many instances of what is described here. But they won't show and tell to people whom they don't trust.

[newnative]

1 hour ago, morrobay said:

But the area from S. Naklua along coast to Bali Hi , from beach up to soi Bukow and Jomtien. Is about 80% supported by foreign tourism revenue. So what now is going to fill that void ? Bangkok by the Sea for Thais, and or chinese swooping in buying up on the cheap.The  casino at Bali Hi. In any event they had better get on with it. Because the last business model was in trouble before covid: there was a link that did not transfer that showed total foreign tourism revenue for Thailand on 2019 as half of 2018 revenue.

 

 

 

 

View Thailand's Tourism Revenue from 1960 to 2019 in the chart:

max 1y 5y 10y                                               bar                                              line                                              area                                              spline                                              areaspline                                              column                                         ApplyGet this data

I think this chart is more accurate.  The only dip in revenue since 2010 was in 2014, the year of the coup.  Tourism was also down that year so the dip makes sense.

[Leaver]

 

There's a rumour going around that the Thai government is seriously considering legalizing prostitution after covid.  Some government officials believe it could promote tourism.  ????

 

Edited May 14, 2021 by Leaver

[kingofthemountain]

31 minutes ago, Leaver said:

 

There's a rumour going around that the Thai government is seriously considering legalizing prostitution after covid.  Some government officials believe it could promote tourism.  ????

 

And now Clivebaxter is on the edge of collapse

[thaibeachlovers]

7 hours ago, newnative said:

     New car dealerships, including several new brands coming to town for the first time, speak volumes about the health of the local economy, which does have a focus on tourism.  If a tourism town is dying, I doubt Mercedes and Mazda would decide now's the time to expand and move to new, bigger facilities.   Ditto for other new retail opening, such as Terminal 21.   And new tourism attractions such as Legend Siam, Tiger Park, the two new water parks, and others.  

     You conveniently overlooked my mentioning of the new hotels that have been built in the past few years--they do 'say much about the tourism economy'.  Mytt, Brighton, Ozo, Grand Centre Point, Palazzo, Centre Point Prime, the Amari Suites addition--those are the big, highrise projects that come to mind--but there are many other new smaller boutique hotel projects, as well, scattered all over on side sois.  Even now, work continues on the massive Grand Centre Point 2, a third highrise wing to D Beach,  and another highrise hotel going up in Naklua.  And, the large new hotel going up across from Central Festival.  Plus, the soon to be finished Edge, which will likely function as a hotel.  

    These are all quality products, to join others already here such as Hilton, Dusit, Centara, Holiday Inn, Hard Rock, Cape Dara, and many others.  Although you are fond of saying Thailand is no longer attracting 'quality' tourists, I wonder who was filling all these new hotels--and many new condo rooms, as well--pre-covid.   

Pattaya has always adhered to the mantra that if someone  does something 200 other people/ companies should immediately do the same thing. For that reason Pattaya has always had large numbers of new bars, market stalls etc built in areas that would never succeed, and inevitably become derelict habitats for feral dogs and rats etc. Just look at the craze that built so many malls in Pattaya that many had hardly any customers pre corona. I can't imagine how they thought it was a good idea to build another mall when the existing ones were already doing badly.

IMO the new hotels are going up in hope of a resurgence of the Chinese tourist demographic- they sure ain't being built for mongers. They could also be aimed at weekenders from Bkk. Once the high speed train starts ( don't hold your breath on that one ) they may imagine hordes of city dwellers arriving to eat sea food and drink booze on the beach.

 

Although you are fond of saying Thailand is no longer attracting 'quality' tourists, I wonder who was filling all these new hotels--and many new condo rooms, as well--pre-covid.   

 

Well, was the Hilton full? I never saw any evidence of that. The Hard Rock probably catered to western tourists that didn't do any research about Pattaya and came based on pretty pictures in a travel agent brochure.

As for the condos, some were full of illegal short stay Chinese, much to the dismay of any that had mistakenly bought to live in one of them.

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

2 hours ago, newnative said:

View Thailand's Tourism Revenue from 1960 to 2019 in the chart:

max 1y 5y 10y                                               bar                                              line                                              area                                              spline                                              areaspline                                              column                                         ApplyGet this data

I think this chart is more accurate.  The only dip in revenue since 2010 was in 2014, the year of the coup.  Tourism was also down that year so the dip makes sense.

Not surprising given the increase in tourist numbers, but it was quantity, not quality tourism, and it was destroying the environment. They didn't have to close Maya Bay because they thought it a good idea- they did it because they had to as mass tourism had destroyed it.

[thaibeachlovers]

7 hours ago, newnative said:

New car dealerships, including several new brands coming to town for the first time, speak volumes about the health of the local economy, which does have a focus on tourism.  If a tourism town is dying, I doubt Mercedes and Mazda would decide now's the time to expand and move to new, bigger facilities.   Ditto for other new retail opening, such as Terminal 21.   And new tourism attractions such as Legend Siam, Tiger Park, the two new water parks, and others.  

Since when did tourists buy cars?

The only relevant cars for tourism in Pattaya would be Isuzu pickups.

 

Sorry to burst the bubble, but the tourist area of Pattaya is so small in comparison to the actual city that IMO it's irrelevant for the great majority of Pattaya residents, most of which IMO will rarely if ever go to that part of the city.

 

Those parks that you mention are not in the tourist area along the city waterfront, and many cater to tourists on day trips from elsewhere.

 

Pattaya isn't dying, but the tiny part that occupies the mind of us farangs may very well die and be resurrected as something entirely different.

[rott]

2 hours ago, Eindhoven said:

 

I don't spend any time in the bars; but I have talked to many over the years. You must be wearing blinkers. They are people. I have seen very many instances of what is described here. But they won't show and tell to people whom they don't trust.

If you don't spend any time in bars where do you talk to these women and where do you see this evidence of depression, drug problems etc. Massage parlours.?

And how do you get them to trust you more than someone who speaks to them regularly, tips them and helps pay their wages.? 

You sound like a fantasist. 

I have no doubt these problems exist (as they exist everywhere) but not to the extent that you omagine. 

[metisdead]

Some inflammatory posts and replies have been removed.

[ChipButty]

6 hours ago, Olmate said:

Don,t tell me you have never had a grannie!!

When I was 17 she used to buy me new Ben Sherman shirts

[spidermike007]

10 hours ago, newnative said:

     New car dealerships, including several new brands coming to town for the first time, speak volumes about the health of the local economy, which does have a focus on tourism.  If a tourism town is dying, I doubt Mercedes and Mazda would decide now's the time to expand and move to new, bigger facilities.   Ditto for other new retail opening, such as Terminal 21.   And new tourism attractions such as Legend Siam, Tiger Park, the two new water parks, and others.  

     You conveniently overlooked my mentioning of the new hotels that have been built in the past few years--they do 'say much about the tourism economy'.  Mytt, Brighton, Ozo, Grand Centre Point, Palazzo, Centre Point Prime, the Amari Suites addition--those are the big, highrise projects that come to mind--but there are many other new smaller boutique hotel projects, as well, scattered all over on side sois.  Even now, work continues on the massive Grand Centre Point 2, a third highrise wing to D Beach,  and another highrise hotel going up in Naklua.  And, the large new hotel going up across from Central Festival.  Plus, the soon to be finished Edge, which will likely function as a hotel.  

    These are all quality products, to join others already here such as Hilton, Dusit, Centara, Holiday Inn, Hard Rock, Cape Dara, and many others.  Although you are fond of saying Thailand is no longer attracting 'quality' tourists, I wonder who was filling all these new hotels--and many new condo rooms, as well--pre-covid.   

They were not being filled. My five star GM friend has pointed out that Thailand has had one of the lowest occupancy rates of any of the worldwide Amari properties, over the past five years. We all assume much market research goes into the development of those properties. I think that is often not the case here. Vacancy is very high in alot of office and condo buildings now. As well as alot of malls. Over development is not necessarily a sign of a healthy economy. 

 

Another friend of mine is dating a woman who is a senior exec with one of Thailand's largest developers. They are shutting down 120 projects next month. That represents 100% of their projects nationwide. Some of it is Covid related. Some of it is just insane, overly optimistic projections. 

 

Build it, and they will come. Not necessarily. 

Edited May 14, 2021 by spidermike007

[spidermike007]

7 hours ago, morrobay said:

But the area from S. Naklua along coast to Bali Hi , from beach up to soi Bukow and Jomtien. Is about 80% supported by foreign tourism revenue. So what now is going to fill that void ? Bangkok by the Sea for Thais, and or chinese swooping in buying up on the cheap.The  casino at Bali Hi. In any event they had better get on with it. Because the last business model was in trouble before covid: there was a link that did not transfer that showed total foreign tourism revenue for Thailand on 2019 as half of 2018 revenue.

 

 

 

 

 I anticipate condo prices to drop by half. A friend of mine recently moved to Pattaya. He looked at condos in Jomtien. He walked into one of the nicest towers, looked at a 36th floor unit with panoramic views, and when he was quoted 28, 000 a month, he offered 10,000. They settled on 13,000. He said the agent more or less admitted the building was nearly empty, and they could not rent to sell anything, at this time.

 

Another friend was in contract long before Covid broke, on a 16 million baht condo in BKK. He has put down roughly 2 million baht on it. They are expecting him to close, as the building is finished now. He told them to drop their price by 8 million baht, or he will seek legal remedies to get his deposit back. He told me he would rather walk away from that 2 million baht, than invest in something that has already gone down in value, by many millions of baht. How many others feel that way? 

 

A friend of mine recently offered a homeowner 15% less than she was asking, and in exchange offrerd to pay a years rent in advance. She refused. Now, the home has been vacant for four or five months already, as it is an extremely soft rental market. 
 
I am not a math professor. But the 15% would have represented less than two months rent. So, unless her phone was ringing off the hook, with potential renters, his offer was a good one. 
 
Pride? Lack of common sense and reason? She just does not need the money, and is not sincere about renting the house? One can often rack the mind trying to figure out the reasoning here. Or lack thereof. 

 
Demand is way down. The Chinese market is nearly gone, Russians and others are very hesitant to commit. And the long term tourists are gone too. So, who does that leave? Wealthy Thais, many of whom see the market collapsing, and would rather wait and see how all of this shakes out, and ex-pats, many of whom are smart enough to be shopping for bargains right now. 
 

[Leaver]

31 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

 I anticipate condo prices to drop by half. A friend of mine recently moved to Pattaya. He looked at condos in Jomtien. He walked into one of the nicest towers, looked at a 36th floor unit with panoramic views, and when he was quoted 28, 000 a month, he offered 10,000. They settled on 13,000. He said the agent more or less admitted the building was nearly empty, and they could not rent to sell anything, at this time.

 

Another friend was in contract long before Covid broke, on a 16 million baht condo in BKK. He has put down roughly 2 million baht on it. They are expecting him to close, as the building is finished now. He told them to drop their price by 8 million baht, or he will seek legal remedies to get his deposit back. He told me he would rather walk away from that 2 million baht, than invest in something that has already gone down in value, by many millions of baht. How many others feel that way? 

 

A friend of mine recently offered a homeowner 15% less than she was asking, and in exchange offrerd to pay a years rent in advance. She refused. Now, the home has been vacant for four or five months already, as it is an extremely soft rental market. 
 
I am not a math professor. But the 15% would have represented less than two months rent. So, unless her phone was ringing off the hook, with potential renters, his offer was a good one. 
 
Pride? Lack of common sense and reason? She just does not need the money, and is not sincere about renting the house? One can often rack the mind trying to figure out the reasoning here. Or lack thereof. 

 
Demand is way down. The Chinese market is nearly gone, Russians and others are very hesitant to commit. And the long term tourists are gone too. So, who does that leave? Wealthy Thais, many of whom see the market collapsing, and would rather wait and see how all of this shakes out, and ex-pats, many of whom are smart enough to be shopping for bargains right now. 
 

 

Whilst I do not disagree with your assessment of the residential market, the member you were replying to was clearly talking bout the commercial market, specifically, the commercial area of Central Pattaya, and Jomtien.  

[soi3eddie]

6 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Since when did tourists buy cars?

The only relevant cars for tourism in Pattaya would be Isuzu pickups.

 

Couldn't it be the case that tourists spending money in Pattaya would be supporting business owners and workers who could then be buying new cars on the profits of their endeavours?

 

[DerbyDan]

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

 Pride? Lack of common sense and reason? She just does not need the money, and is not sincere about renting the house? One can often rack the mind trying to figure out the reasoning here. Or lack thereof. 

It's pride and face, bro.

Someone who would rather lose money and suffer then fess up and take a lower offer.

You can see the same principal at work in smallest interactions. Go into a night market and haggle over a belt that's made in China near worth nothing. The stall owner has thousands in a box in the rear room. He can't ever sell them all. Will probably end up throwing them out. Yey, he won't come down in price to half what he asked. It's just an 'oh well, nevermind'.

[Henryford]

Despite the dead/dying image it's surprising how much development is still going on. Driving around town i see many new condos being finished off. Look at that monster on Jomtien beach near the Night Market. Also Tree Town has many new bars including that posh one with the swimming pool. So someone must think things will get better soon.

[DerbyDan]

18 hours ago, jacko45k said:

My Mrs was in her hammock until she learned the AC was on.... as to Durian, more likely to be me eating it, Mrs hates it, I am rather partial.

Sort of on topic, to be whittling on about nothing as we are, really expresses life in Pattaya now... there isn't really any.  

 

Your comment reads as slightly limp.

[newnative]

11 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

They were not being filled. My five star GM friend has pointed out that Thailand has had one of the lowest occupancy rates of any of the worldwide Amari properties, over the past five years. We all assume much market research goes into the development of those properties. I think that is often not the case here. Vacancy is very high in alot of office and condo buildings now. As well as alot of malls. Over development is not necessarily a sign of a healthy economy. 

 

Another friend of mine is dating a woman who is a senior exec with one of Thailand's largest developers. They are shutting down 120 projects next month. That represents 100% of their projects nationwide. Some of it is Covid related. Some of it is just insane, overly optimistic projections. 

 

Build it, and they will come. Not necessarily. 

    Maybe ask your 5 star GM friend why Amari would build not one but two additions to their Pattaya property if business was not good.  Your vague notion that market research isn't done and things are just built willy-nilly just isn't flying.  

    Instead, I think quite a bit of market research was done.  Not just anything was thrown up as new construction on the site.  What Amari found--both through market research and customer feedback--was that there was a need for a more family-focused hotel wing that catered to families.  And, that's what they built.  It offers, instead of just hotel rooms, large suites that allow a family to all stay together.  There's a kids buffet bar at the restaurant and kid-focused activities.    Ditto for the other project on the site--Ozo--which is also looks to be more family-oriented and has large ballroom facilities.

    Large meeting facilities are a big feature of these new hotels.  The new Mytt Hotel just down the street can accommodate over a thousand people with its extensive ballroom and meeting spaces.  The new Grande Centre Point 2 going up now will also have extensive facilities to cater to destination weddings, seminars, business meetings company retreats, and so on.  

    The large north Pattaya hotels, and others, were all doing well pre-covid and were even doing ok on weekends before the shut down.  If the Pattaya hotel business was not good I really don't think the Centre Point company would, first, come to town and build the very large Grand Centre Point.  Then, with business still supposedly bad, turn the Trust Condo on Sukumvit into Centre Point Prime Hotel.  And then, with business STILL supposedly bad, start the massive Grande Centre Point 2.  Sorry, just not buying it.

      There's no doubt, however, that some small hotels and guesthouses were hurting, pre-covid, in Pattaya.  In the past few years dozens of very large 1000-unit condo projects, both highrise and lowrise, were built in Pattaya.  Many of them feature small 25 to 35 sqm condos that are ideal to illegally rent daily as hotel rooms.  Some smaller hotels and guesthouses--that don't offer all the bells and whistles of the large hotels--likely saw their businesses suffer as some tourists rented a condo room instead.

[tlandtday]

33 minutes ago, newnative said:

    Maybe ask your 5 star GM friend why Amari would build not one but two additions to their Pattaya property if business was not good.  Your vague notion that market research isn't done and things are just built willy-nilly just isn't flying.  

    Instead, I think quite a bit of market research was done.  Not just anything was thrown up as new construction on the site.  What Amari found--both through market research and customer feedback--was that there was a need for a more family-focused hotel wing that catered to families.  And, that's what they built.  It offers, instead of just hotel rooms, large suites that allow a family to all stay together.  There's a kids buffet bar at the restaurant and kid-focused activities.    Ditto for the other project on the site--Ozo--which is also looks to be more family-oriented and has large ballroom facilities.

    Large meeting facilities are a big feature of these new hotels.  The new Mytt Hotel just down the street can accommodate over a thousand people with its extensive ballroom and meeting spaces.  The new Grande Centre Point 2 going up now will also have extensive facilities to cater to destination weddings, seminars, business meetings company retreats, and so on.  

    The large north Pattaya hotels, and others, were all doing well pre-covid and were even doing ok on weekends before the shut down.  If the Pattaya hotel business was not good I really don't think the Centre Point company would, first, come to town and build the very large Grand Centre Point.  Then, with business still supposedly bad, turn the Trust Condo on Sukumvit into Centre Point Prime Hotel.  And then, with business STILL supposedly bad, start the massive Grande Centre Point 2.  Sorry, just not buying it.

      There's no doubt, however, that some small hotels and guesthouses were hurting, pre-covid, in Pattaya.  In the past few years dozens of very large 1000-unit condo projects, both highrise and lowrise, were built in Pattaya.  Many of them feature small 25 to 35 sqm condos that are ideal to illegally rent daily as hotel rooms.  Some smaller hotels and guesthouses--that don't offer all the bells and whistles of the large hotels--likely saw their businesses suffer as some tourists rented a condo room instead.

I believe most of the projects currently being built were committed to by both the builder and the banks prior to covid and have not been changed.  I think you will not be seeing many new projects shortly as the financing and kickbacks have dried up.

[newnative]

15 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Since when did tourists buy cars?

The only relevant cars for tourism in Pattaya would be Isuzu pickups.

 

Sorry to burst the bubble, but the tourist area of Pattaya is so small in comparison to the actual city that IMO it's irrelevant for the great majority of Pattaya residents, most of which IMO will rarely if ever go to that part of the city.

 

Those parks that you mention are not in the tourist area along the city waterfront, and many cater to tourists on day trips from elsewhere.

 

Pattaya isn't dying, but the tiny part that occupies the mind of us farangs may very well die and be resurrected as something entirely different.

     No, tourists don't buy cars.  Or hammers.  However, if new car dealers are coming to town--including luxury brands like Audi--it's a sign of a thriving, not dying city.  The same for Home Pro needing a second store--not to sell hammers to tourists but to serve a growing Greater Pattaya population.  

    I like to use Greater Pattaya and I feel you are a bit out of touch regarding Pattaya with your thinking that the tourist area is just along the city waterfront.  Many of the tourist attractions--built for the growing family tourist market--are outside of this area.  Nong Nooch Gardens.  Tiger Park.  Floating Market.  Flowerland.  Cartoon Network Waterpark.  Legend Siam.  Ramayana Water Park.  Dolphinarium.  Underwater World.  And others.

    You're also a bit out of touch with your thinking that the tourist part of Pattaya 'rarely if ever' attracts Pattaya residents.  Right now a very large parking garage is being built next to Terminal 21.  It's a joint project between the mall and the city and it's being built to accommodate the crowds of Pattaya residents and other visitors that, yes, do come to this area of town--in their cars--to enjoy the beach, shop and dine in the area, and to attend the many special events--more of which seem to be planned every year.

    To respond to one of your other posts, you're also a bit out of touch as to which tourists are booking into Hard Rock.  It's not mostly western.  It's mostly Asian.  Ditto for Hilton, which was doing well pre-covid.  As were all the large hotels in this part of Pattaya and north Pattaya.  (So well that Mytt Hotel, Ozo Hotel, a new Amari wing, Grand Centre Point, Brighton, Palazzo, and others were recently built--with two more under construction and a third wing for D' Beach Hotel going up. ) 

    Plus a new highrise hotel going up right across from Central Festival--a mall I believe you thought would fail miserably when it first opened.  You are right that several malls are not doing well--Harbor comes to mind--but Festiival and T21 were both thriving, pre-covid.  

[newnative]

54 minutes ago, tlandtday said:

I believe most of the projects currently being built were committed to by both the builder and the banks prior to covid and have not been changed.  I think you will not be seeing many new projects shortly as the financing and kickbacks have dried up.

     I think some of the projects could have been cancelled or put on hold.  Asiatique Prime, for example, was planned for Pattaya and set to go but it, apparently, has been put on hold for now.  It will be interesting to see if the large, new luxury condo Arom Wongamat is cancelled or goes forward.  And, some others, as well.  

[spidermike007]

13 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

Whilst I do not disagree with your assessment of the residential market, the member you were replying to was clearly talking bout the commercial market, specifically, the commercial area of Central Pattaya, and Jomtien.  

I do not consider a rental apartment to be a part of the commercial market. It is clearly a residential condominium. And it is a direct indication of the weakness of the rental market. This also extends to the sales market. In particular condos have been very hard hit. It appears single family homes are not being driven down here, like the condos are. But, condos were overbuilt to a stunning degree, so you can look at it, as a health and much needed market correction.