Where Does Thailand 70% Vaccination Rate Come From?

[Pattaya Spotter]

The US virus cases and death numbers are plunging and the country is starting to return to normal at only 40% fully vaccinated and 50% having one shot...where does Thailand's fetish for a 70% vaccination rate to re-open and return to normal come from...and is such a high rate necessary?

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/health/covid-vaccine-states-distribution-doses/

[Jeffr2]

It's one of the numbers scientists are pushing around as the rate we need to get to in order to stop the virus.  Some say even 80%.

[Ryan754326]

8 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

It's one of the numbers scientists are pushing around as the rate we need to get to in order to stop the virus.  Some say even 80%.

Should I assume that they have taken into consideration the millions who have already had covid and recovered, as well?

Edited May 26, 2021 by Ryan754326

[Jeffr2]

21 minutes ago, Ryan754326 said:

Should I assume that they have taken into consideration the millions who have already had covid and recovered, as well?

No.  Just because you had it one time, doesn't mean you can't get it again.  Even if fully vaccinated, you can still get the virus and pass it along.

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/more-people-are-getting-covid-19-twice-suggesting-immunity-wanes-quickly-some

[Emdog]

That herd immunity theory is based in part that the 70% is uniformly spread among the population. Or that's my guess and I'm sticking with it.

I see a problem in the US as there are many areas where mask wearing and vaccines are seen as some sort of commie plot. Vaccine rates for population of those states far under and probably will never reach 70%. Short of banning interstate travel (like Australia did) I see nothing to prevent those states from becoming giant Petri dishes.

If you have a house fire in your 5 bedroom house, putting it out in 4 of the rooms is just not enough....

[Ryan754326]

1 hour ago, Jeffr2 said:

No.  Just because you had it one time, doesn't mean you can't get it again.  Even if fully vaccinated, you can still get the virus and pass it along.

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/more-people-are-getting-covid-19-twice-suggesting-immunity-wanes-quickly-some

So if being fully vaccinated doesn’t protect against reinfection, and recovering from the virus doesn’t give sufficient immunity, then how do we get out of this? 
 

 

[Phillip9]

4 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

The US virus cases and death numbers are plunging and the country is starting to return to normal at only 40% fully vaccinated and 50% having one shot...where does Thailand's fetish for a 70% vaccination rate to re-open and return to normal come from...and is such a high rate necessary?

 

Keep in mind that the US is using much better vaccines than any vaccine that will be available in Thailand this year.  Look at Maldives, currently the worlds worst covid outbreak--much worse than India.  They are using the same 2 vaccines as Thailand, and they are 30% fully vaccinated, and 60% one shot, but still a disaster.

[cdemundo]

I think the idea is the more people vaccinated the better.

Setting the goal high for this reason.

Or not.

[chilly07]

If you vaccinate 70pc of the population starting with the most vulnerable first ( not the most hi so or those living in Phuket!) the remaining 30pc are likely to be those young and with a strong immune system giving overall herd immunity. Wuflu will not propogate in those vaccinated and overall will die out.

[placeholder]

5 hours ago, chilly07 said:

If you vaccinate 70pc of the population starting with the most vulnerable first ( not the most hi so or those living in Phuket!) the remaining 30pc are likely to be those young and with a strong immune system giving overall herd immunity. Wuflu will not propogate in those vaccinated and overall will die out.

Actually, 70% is now at the low end of estimates about what it would take to achieve herd immunity. As new, more contagious variants emerge, estimates have gone up. In fact, it may be that herd immunity isn't attainable. But as long as you're vaccinated, the odds ore overwhelming the you won't get seriously ill or die.

And, by the way, the coronavirus is in no way, shape or form, an influenza virus. Not even close.

[rickudon]

On 5/26/2021 at 4:52 PM, Phillip9 said:

 

Keep in mind that the US is using much better vaccines than any vaccine that will be available in Thailand this year.  Look at Maldives, currently the worlds worst covid outbreak--much worse than India.  They are using the same 2 vaccines as Thailand, and they are 30% fully vaccinated, and 60% one shot, but still a disaster.

Maldives isn't that bad - only 270 deaths per million compared with over 2,000 deaths per million in Italy. they are experiencing their first wave, only isolated cases previously.

 

70% - because (hopefully) at that level the R rate should stay below 1.0 either because you do not catch it because vaccinated or only get a mild infection (so low viral load reduces infection of others).  Remember you tend to get waves of infection, and risk is higher in the winter. As for the USA, they were coming off the crest of a wave anyway, and vaccination has hopefully helped. But at 40-50% vaccinated, another wave is likely to follow - certainly next winter if the vaccination rate stays where it is.

[Phillip9]

7 hours ago, rickudon said:

Maldives isn't that bad - only 270 deaths per million compared with over 2,000 deaths per million in Italy.

 

Almost all of those deaths were in the last month (while quite a lot of people were already vaccinated).  Maldives 7 day average daily death rate is ~1/100K.  Just a bad as Italy at its very worst even though 60% have already received one shot and 30% are fully vaccinated.

[Scott]

A post with false or misleading information and no source has been removed.

 

[sezze]

Depending on various research , herd immunity on a viral infection with a R value similar like Covid , they expect a 70% vaccination rate . This is however on the standard Covid version , and there are some higher R Covid mutations around . So the 70% is now on the low side where they see herd immunity . 80% or higher is heard more and more for the UK and Indian version ( which are more easy to spread ) . At least thats what i heard of specialists here . Let just say , the higher the number , the better it is and the less likely we do have outbreaks . 70% looks the number every  country is aiming , so lets get there 1st and see if we can go higher . Some countries surely will , other won't , lets see what the result of that will be . The whole Covid thing is the single best education book for virologists , and many other field of human behaviour , psychologists , economists , ... ever written and will go in history books and studied for long long time .

[Pattaya Spotter]

9 minutes ago, sezze said:

Depending on various research , herd immunity on a viral infection with a R value similar like Covid , they expect a 70% vaccination rate . This is however on the standard Covid version , and there are some higher R Covid mutations around . So the 70% is now on the low side where they see herd immunity .

That's what we have been told throughout the pandemic, and is being used as the standard in Thailand; but with full vaccination rates of 40%, North America is relaxing most virus precautions and returning to normal.

 

Source: Google Search

Edited May 29, 2021 by Pattaya Spotter

[sezze]

1 hour ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

That's what we have been told throughout the pandemic, and is being used as the standard in Thailand; but with full vaccination rates of 40%, North America is relaxing most virus precautions and returning to normal.

 

Source: Google Search

Thats why i say we see how it all works out , because i firmly believe more on the 70% then on 40%. The 40% is enough in the 1st , as we see down here in my home also ( now 50% on 1st vaccination ) , but when we stop now we will get more waves( thats what i think , since i believe science and not politics ) . The 70-80% stop the virus as total , not only the vulnerable . But hey , like i said , future will tell us for sure , if 40% is enough , the better it is and the sooner all would be normal . We never been in similar situations before , so like i said , we go down in history books as the 1st big test case scenario , and all math models about pandemics will be stated on how we do right now and not on the pure statistical base like before .

 I really really hope the 40% will be enough , as it would make all a lot easier , even for future outbreaks , which will come eventually , so lets just see . I am vaccinated , i hope everybody else does the same if they got the chance , since i do not see a reason not to do so , but that's me . I said many times this question , give me a good reason not to be vaccinated , and i will certainly agree on . Under age , sure don't do it , not researched , so only if you want to be a test person . Heavy on allergies , you are right also , since it is a strange substance in your bloodstream , and i agree on that . All "normal" adults , well take it , there is not a single reason imaginable why not to take it , beside crazy theories of idiots , which suddenly many people seem to believe , just because its on facebook .

[Susco]

On 5/26/2021 at 12:46 PM, Ryan754326 said:

Should I assume that they have taken into consideration the millions who have already had covid and recovered, as well?

 

The expert virologist on this forum of course gonna disagree with you, however in other threads that is exactly what they say themselves.

 

If you are vaccinated, you still can get infected, but much less chance, and the same goes for those who have been infected before.

 

So yes, I agree with you that the reduction of new cases in UK and US is in part because the majority of the population has been already been infected.

[Pattaya Spotter]

25 minutes ago, sezze said:

Thats why i say we see how it all works out , because i firmly believe more on the 70% then on 40%. The 40% is enough in the 1st , as we see down here in my home also ( now 50% on 1st vaccination ) , but when we stop now we will get more waves( thats what i think , since i believe science and not politics ) . The 70-80% stop the virus as total , not only the vulnerable . But hey , like i said , future will tell us for sure , if 40% is enough , the better it is and the sooner all would be normal . We never been in similar situations before , so like i said , we go down in history books as the 1st big test case scenario , and all math models about pandemics will be stated on how we do right now and not on the pure statistical base like before .

 I really really hope the 40% will be enough , as it would make all a lot easier , even for future outbreaks , which will come eventually , so lets just see . I am vaccinated , i hope everybody else does the same if they got the chance , since i do not see a reason not to do so , but that's me . I said many times this question , give me a good reason not to be vaccinated , and i will certainly agree on . Under age , sure don't do it , not researched , so only if you want to be a test person . Heavy on allergies , you are right also , since it is a strange substance in your bloodstream , and i agree on that . All "normal" adults , well take it , there is not a single reason imaginable why not to take it , beside crazy theories of idiots , which suddenly many people seem to believe , just because its on facebook .

Around 50% have had at least one shot...40% both. Of course, the US isn't stopping there and are continuing to vaccinate with a goal of 70%+; I just find it interesting that at these lower levels, cases and deaths drop dramatically and life can start to return to normal.

[sezze]

9 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Around 50% have had at least one shot...40% both. Of course, the US isn't stopping there and are continuing to vaccinate with a goal of 70%+; I just find it interesting that at these lower levels, cases and deaths drop dramatically and life can start to return to normal.

I think a big part is due to who is vaccinated of those 40% . The 40% is not distributed equally over the population , but the most vulnerable in the 1st place . If they are fully vaccinated , then the deaths will drop fast , since they were always the ones who were killed by it . Next people younger but with underlying conditions , they not died often but were big chance of going hospital . If those groups are vaccinated , then the hospital numbers will reduce a lot , even when it is 40% .

[mtls2005]

Where Does Thailand 70% Vaccination Rate Come From?

 

Prof Dr Yong Pooworavan?

 

He seems to be the lead adviser to the regime, so assume this bubbled up to him, and he bubbled it to the CCSA Czar.

[placeholder]

10 hours ago, Susco said:

 

The expert virologist on this forum of course gonna disagree with you, however in other threads that is exactly what they say themselves.

 

If you are vaccinated, you still can get infected, but much less chance, and the same goes for those who have been infected before.

 

So yes, I agree with you that the reduction of new cases in UK and US is in part because the majority of the population has been already been infected.

Ryan754326 did not claim that a majority of the population had already been infected. So you're agreeing with yourself. That said, being previously infected does confer quite a bit of immunity although vaccines generally provoke a stronger immune response. 

[Susco]

4 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Ryan754326 did not claim that a majority of the population had already been infected. So you're agreeing with yourself.

 

It all depends on how you read it. My understanding is that he suggested that previous infections add to the immunity. When I see that the US has 33.6 million TESTED infections, then I'm sure that the real number of asymptomatic infection is much much higher. So i guess in the US, and most other countries that had high infection number last year, the majority of the population has had it.

 

7 minutes ago, placeholder said:

That said, being previously infected does confer quite a bit of immunity although vaccines generally provoke a stronger immune response. 

 

You have any credible source for that? I guess not, because we know how many people have been vaccinated, but we don't know how many people have been infected, because not everyone has been tested, and also not everyone needed medical care when infected.

[Sametboy2019]

Israel have gone down to no covid deaths with 60% vaccinated

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, Susco said:

You have any credible source for that? I guess not, because we know how many people have been vaccinated, but we don't know how many people have been infected, because not everyone has been tested, and also not everyone needed medical care when infected.

Dr. Fauci explains why COVID-19 vaccines work much better than natural immunity to protect you from the coronavirus

https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-why-covid-vaccines-work-better-than-natural-infection-alone-2021-5

 

Immune Response From mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines Is More Robust Than Natural Infection

https://www.contagionlive.com/view/immune-response-from-mrna-covid-19-vaccines-is-more-robust-than-natural-infection

[Pattaya Spotter]

32 minutes ago, Sametboy2019 said:

Israel have gone down to no covid deaths with 60% vaccinated

Probably as member Sezze said, once you vaccinate the elderly and medically vulnerable (maybe 20-25 percent of the population) deaths basically drop to zero. 

[Phillip9]

1 hour ago, Sametboy2019 said:

Israel have gone down to no covid deaths with 60% vaccinated

 

But they are using pfizer, a much much better vaccine than anything Thailand will use.  
 

You have to look at countries using the same vaccines as Thailand.  Look at Chile, 55% vaccinated with mostly sinovac, still a disaster and cases continue to rise.  Also look at Seychelles or maldives, high vax rates and disasters.

[Phillip9]

1 hour ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Probably as member Sezze said, once you vaccinate the elderly and medically vulnerable (maybe 20-25 percent of the population) deaths basically drop to zero. 

 

The US fully vaccinated virtually all elderly 3 months ago, and they still have about 500 covid deaths every day.

[Pattaya Spotter]

8 minutes ago, Phillip9 said:

 

The US fully vaccinated virtually all elderly 3 months ago, and they still have about 500 covid deaths every day.

338 yesterday...and falling quickly.

[Phillip9]

20 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

338 yesterday...and falling quickly.

 

Yesterday was a weekend.  A lot of states don't even report death data on the weekend which is why only the 7 day average matters.  I understated the 7 day average which is 656, and as you can see below, its not falling much at all.

 

 

[Pattaya Spotter]

8 hours ago, Phillip9 said:

 

Yesterday was a weekend.  A lot of states don't even report death data on the weekend which is why only the 7 day average matters.  I understated the 7 day average which is 656, and as you can see below, its not falling much at all.

 

 

If the 7 day average is 656 but the cases on the last day of that period is 338 (half the average) it tells me cases are falling fast.