Doctors sound alarm over plan to reopen borders by October

[clivebaxter]

3 million more tracking wristbands ordered from China for the tourists to wear from Oct ????

[The Cipher]

23 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

I don't like the odds... 1.5-2.5% of those infected in other countries die. Many get something called long Covid... doesn't sound good. And many have unpleasant symptoms ... it nearly killed the UK PM. 

 

I believe that people who are concerned about the risk of Covid should be free to take any individual precautions that they deem necessary. I also do believe (hope?) that vaccines are the long term solution to the Covid issue and would like Thailand to get their rollout in order.

 

But I also believe that those of us with the courage to stare down a ~98% chance of survival and confidently say "you know what, I'll take those odds", should also be free to live meaningful lives in the meantime.

[sammieuk1]

The Dr forgot to add whilst wearing flippers and playing the accordion ????

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, DrJack54 said:

What's the point of quoting number of folk that have received first jab.

What's the number that have received both shots.

 

1.9 million out of 70 million, as of today's update, which covers thru the end of yesterday.

 

Here's the latest chart:

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/346611956957135

Edited June 17, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[jacko45k]

9 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

But I also believe that those of us with the courage to stare down a ~98% chance of survival and confidently say "you know what, I'll take those odds", should also be free to live meaningful lives in the meantime.

All people need to still go out and shop for food, work  and do other necessary things, which will take them outside of their comfort zone and into risk.  So I  expect governments to keep some necessary facilities open, with a reasonable control on risk to users.

 

It is not necessarily just courage, I see very dumb people not taking precautions, which actually then puts risk onto others.  That is unacceptable. 

[DrJack54]

Just now, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

1.9 million out of 70 million, as of today's update, which covers thru the end of yesterday.

 

So has anyone done some modelling of projected compete vaccination. Obviously there are huge variables i.e supply etc. There must be a best worst scenario. 

% of population that have received both shots by year's end is what? Best case 60% worst case 30%. ? 

[Danny Australia]

It’s just suicidal and grossly irresponsible to open up the country in 120 days while the capital has been unable to contain the latest outbreak and while there is a shortage of vaccine. I understand the economy is hurt and people are suffering but the country should only be opened with clear targets to be reached first such as % of population fully vaccinated and acceptable number of daily cases.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

9 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

But I also believe that those of us with the courage to stare down a ~98% chance of survival and confidently say "you know what, I'll take those odds", should also be free to live meaningful lives in the meantime.

 

In your vision, you're not just risking your life, you're risking the lives of every unvaccinated person you may come into contact with...

 

Because, the vaccines prevent against illness in the vaccinated person primarily. They don't prevent you from becoming infected with the virus and then being contagious to others around you, even though there appears to be some lessening of contagiousness.

 

So society at large is really only substantially protected, and the spread of the virus can only be significantly stopped, when almost everyone has been fully vaccinated.  And Thailand is nowhere close to that right now or for the foreseeable future.

 

 

[PMinThailand]

How about cutting the salaries of these doctors to make them understand how the population feels!

[mommysboy]

Taking the examples of the UK and Chile, it's likely that when there are more exotic variants around 80% of the adult population needs full vaccination (two jabs) to avoid significant hospitalization.  Those countries have also experienced big outbreaks so might reasonably have 20% of the population with naturally acquired immunity of some form.  

 

Anything short of 80% full vaccination 2 weeks after the final person has been vaccinated is going to cause a big wave of infection within 2 months of reopening imo.  

 

 

[pokerface1]

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

 

With 3% efficacy of the Chinese gunk from first jab, pretty pointless !

Yep waste of a good syringe

[mommysboy]

24 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

 

I believe that people who are concerned about the risk of Covid should be free to take any individual precautions that they deem necessary. I also do believe (hope?) that vaccines are the long term solution to the Covid issue and would like Thailand to get their rollout in order.

 

But I also believe that those of us with the courage to stare down a ~98% chance of survival and confidently say "you know what, I'll take those odds", should also be free to live meaningful lives in the meantime.

 

Do you have a right though to impose those odds on others who you could infect?

 

It's a tricky issue I know- there's no right or wrong answer.  Certainly if others have had ample opportunity to get vaccinated then I definitely agree with you.

[poskat]

50 minutes ago, Excel said:

I would add though that your description that "no tourists will want to come here to be exposed to the dirty potentially virus-infected thai people" is grossly unfair to most of the Thai people. They do not want to be cast in that light and hate the government  and those that keep them in power for putting them in that position, as the administration  is effectively denying them the passport for a bill of clean health by deliberately ensuring that they will not be vaccinated.

I think you missed the irony in what I said.... it was an echo of how the high-priest of health here, the great anutin, described the foreigners in thailand, and how many of the thai people view foreigners as being very likely to be infected.

 

I and many expat friends here have experienced thais not willing to be in proximity to us, as if we were plague-carrying rats.

 

if tourists dont come here based on the lack of vaccinated thais, well, som nom na...

[The Cipher]

12 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

All people need to still go out and shop for food, work  and do other necessary things, which will take them outside of their comfort zone and into risk.  So I  expect governments to keep some necessary facilities open, with a reasonable control on risk to users.

 

12 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

In your vision, you're not just risking your life, you're risking the lives of every unvaccinated person you may come into contact with...

 

Yes. To some degree this is true. But we cannot be expected to remain constrained until the very last holdout consents to accept the risk.

 

The reality is that yes, unfortunately some people will die from Covid. The vast majority will not. Quality of time on Earth beats length of time on Earth, and if the vaccine rollout still hasn't delivered in four months(!) time, there is certainly a case to be made for a full reopening regardless.

[Excel]

6 minutes ago, poskat said:

I think you missed the irony in what I said.... it was an echo of how the high-priest of health here, the great anutin, described the foreigners in thailand, and how many of the thai people view foreigners as being very likely to be infected.

 

I and many expat friends here have experienced thais not willing to be in proximity to us, as if we were plague-carrying rats.

 

if tourists dont come here based on the lack of vaccinated thais, well, som nom na...

Sorry I missed your point, apologies for that. But As you may know from all of my posts I do not live in BKK/Phuket/Pattaya anymore rather have lived in the sticks of Udon Thani for a long long time. Whilst all those years ago I did experience some Thai prejudice against foreigners in BKK, mainly from hisos or those who thought they were,  I had assumed, obviously wrongly that things had changed there. That is due to the fact that up here I have never in the past or present encountered any prejudice whatsoever  against  Perhaps it is just that people from Issan have been exposed to normal foreigners more who knows . In fact as a community there is no such thing as prejudice that I have encountered here and there is as much hatred for this unjust regime from me and other foreigners as there are Thais knowing that this regime is deliberately ensuring that vaccinations are not undertaken for either Thais or foreigners.

[The Cipher]

13 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Do you have a right though to impose those odds on others who you could infect?

 

Perhaps a better question is whether people ought to have the right to restrict the livelihoods, achievement potential, movement, and quality of life of others based on their own subjective mental comfort.

 

If reopening were to happen in October as stated, we would have endured this loss of utility for the better part of two years. Meanwhile our species is actually further from extinction than when this first started. I hope the vaccine rollout has Covid well contained by October, but if not, there has to be a cutoff point.

[Petey11]

1 hour ago, bkk6060 said:

The UK is almost 50% fully vaccinated and sadly have rising cases causing another 4 weeks of lockdown.

This place is dreaming so out of touch.

But you forget that in Thailand cases will stay constant at 2-3k come what may. TIT.

[Boomer6969]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

“To reopen while knowing that people inside the country have yet to comprehensively receive good vaccines is like climbing a mountain at night without a light,”

"good vaccines"? obviously the good doctor doesn't think much of whatever vaccines are being given to Thai folks right now and for the next 120 days.

 

I'd share the view that the only suitable light to get to the top would be 100 million doses of Pfizer and or Moderna.

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

“To reopen while knowing that people inside the country have yet to comprehensively receive good vaccines is like climbing a mountain at night without a light,” Dr Thira Woratanarat, Chulalongkorn University’s professor of medicine, wrote on his social media page on Thursday.

 

According to the Health Ministry’s Immunization Center, 4.95 million people have received their first dose as of June 15. Thailand’s population is 69 million.

But Prayut has a vision... 

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, DrJack54 said:

What's the point of quoting number of folk that have received first jab.

What's the number that have received both shots.

I can name two...

[Sundew Giggleglow]

1 minute ago, hotchilli said:

But Prayut has a vision... 

 

Sundew wonders if it is cataracts.

[mommysboy]

1 hour ago, The Cipher said:

 

Perhaps a better question is whether people ought to have the right to restrict the livelihoods, achievement potential, movement, and quality of life of others based on their own subjective mental comfort.

 

If reopening were to happen in October as stated, we would have endured this loss of utility for the better part of two years. Meanwhile our species is actually further from extinction than when this first started. I hope the vaccine rollout has Covid well contained by October, but if not, there has to be a cutoff point.

 

I'd prefer it if you actually answered the original question in all honesty.

 

I think in all honesty the phrase 'subjective mental comfort' is somewhat inappropriate in this instance- we're not talking about someone playing music a bit loud on the subway.

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

I can name two...

Ah ha Prayantin

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Doctors on Thursday slammed the government’s plan to reopen Thailand within the next 120 days.

A year or two ago no-one would really speak out against the government, now we see open messages from even government establishments.

[Excel]

Just now, hotchilli said:

A year or two ago no-one would really speak out against the government, now we see open messages from even government establishments.

Just need some of the more socially responsible army personnel to take action, if there are any.

[Golden Triangle]

1 hour ago, The Cipher said:

 

 

Yes. To some degree this is true. But we cannot be expected to remain constrained until the very last holdout consents to accept the risk.

 

The reality is that yes, unfortunately some people will die from Covid. The vast majority will not. Quality of time on Earth beats length of time on Earth, and if the vaccine rollout still hasn't delivered in four months(!) time, there is certainly a case to be made for a full reopening regardless.

I sure as hell hope that with that attitude you live nowhere near me. 

[The Cipher]

56 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

I think in all honesty the phrase 'subjective mental comfort' is somewhat inappropriate in this instance

 

Not sure about this. A person's objective risk here is, to a large degree, knowable. But how they feel about that risk can vary.

 

For example - let's say that you and I are identical in every way and have the exact same risk exposure to something negative happening; say 10%. One of us might be comfortable with the 90% odds of something negative not happening, while the other person might find that risk 10% risk unacceptably high. There's a degree of subjectivity in individual comfort with risk.

 

Some people are afraid of driving. Those people generally avoid spending time behind the wheel. But nobody expects that motor vehicles will be banned until there is zero risk of an accident occuring. I realize that's not a perfect parallel to this situation, but it illustrates that (i) there's a degree of subjectivity in comfort with risk; and (ii) that risk is already inherent to much of what we do on a day to day basis.

[The Cipher]

45 minutes ago, Golden Triangle said:

I sure as hell hope that with that attitude you live nowhere near me. 

 

Don't worry lol. Based on the profile of the typical member here, there's pretty much no chance we run in the same circles ????

 

Stay safe out there tho ????

[Anton9]

I still can't believe after 1 year and a half of this there are people still wish the country will not open up.

Either the average member here is 90 years old with 3 comorbieties or there are just so many paranoid people out here.

[Anton9]

3 hours ago, mommysboy said:

 

Do you have a right though to impose those odds on others who you could infect?

 

It's a tricky issue I know- there's no right or wrong answer.  Certainly if others have had ample opportunity to get vaccinated then I definitely agree with you.

People who are worried of being infected have the right to lock themselves at home until covid will disappear from planet earth(never gonna happen).

Edited June 17, 2021 by Anton9