Thailand warns daily COVID-19 cases could hit 30,000 in worst case

[snoop1130]

Public health officers bring coronavirus disease (COVID-19) swab testing to residents living in remote communities, amid the rise of coronavirus disease infections, in Samut Prakan, near Bangkok, Thailand, July 19, 2021. REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun

 

(Reuters) - Thailand's COVID-19 task force on Monday called on people to follow stricter containment measures, warning that without cooperation record daily infection rates could roughly treble to reach 30,000 under a worst-case scenario.

 

The Southeast Asian country reported on Monday 11,784 new cases, the fourth consecutive day of record infections, and 81 new deaths, bringing total fatalities to 3,422 and cases to 415,170, with most infections from an outbreak started in April.

 

Thailand could see daily infections of more than 30,000 if the public did not comply, Taweesin Wisanuyothin, a spokesman for the country's COVID-19 task force, told a briefing.

 

"I do not want that projection to happen," he said. "We have seen over 10,000 cases for many days and we want this to come down. But no one can do this alone and everyone has to help," he said.

 

The government on Sunday announced tighter lockdown measures in the capital and 12 high-risk provinces, classified as "dark red zone", from this week, suspending most domestic fights and expanding curfew areas.

 

Domestic flights to and from Bangkok and those provinces will be suspended from Wednesday, with some exceptions, including for medical or emergency situations.

 

Registration will be required for people to leave those areas and checkpoints set up, meaning it will be "very inconvenient to travel," Taweesin said.

 

As Thailand is struggling with its longest-running outbreak, so far only 3.4 million out of a more than 66 million population have been fully vaccinated.

 

The government last week approved a plan to acquire 120 million doses of vaccines in additional to this year's planned 105.5 million doses, government spokesman Anucha Burapachaisri said in a statement.

 

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2021-07-19

 

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[ripstanley]

If testing was increased then that number may already be surpassed.

[SooKee]

Bit of a trend developing here.  Not so long back they were saying we could hit 10,000 if we aren't careful then, lo and behold, the week after, it's 10,000.  It's as if they think making these advance announcements makes it come as less of a shock when, 'surprise surprise, we were right, see, if only you'd done as you were told'.

[robblok]

Its a bit rich blaming it on the people while it was the government that did not test enough and the government that let building sites go on and did not control its migrant workers.

 

Not to mention that Prayut let Songkran go on famously saying what will be will be. Government will always blame others.

 

I am not happy with the lockdown from a personal point of view, but understand its needed. I dislike the inconvenience of it but would dislike it even more if I ended up in a hospital on the triage with a bed shortage.

 

But the government should take blame and payout far more to low income earners and forget about the subs and other military toys and as compensation for their faults forgo on those and use the money to help the people.

 

I know that will never happen as the fat cats want to eat.

[Frank Abegnale]

It COULD hit 30k, . . . or it might not. 

[2 is 1]

8 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

Domestic flights to and from Bangkok and those provinces will be suspended from Wednesday, with some exceptions, including for medical or emergency situations.

What about tourist flight's to Phuket and Samui, maybe they are not province's in Thailand anymore!

[darksidedog]

Predicting numbers is like guessing the lottery numbers. Short while back UK was under 2,000 a day now above 50K, albeit with a well vaccinated populace.

2,000 here became 3,000, became 4,000, then 6,000 and in no time has almost doubled with not much really in the way of a lockdown, which seems to stem from the welfare payments needed if they do call that. I do not see 30K as the worst case scenario, rather a likely one. The worst case could be way higher, as other Asian countries can testify.

[2 is 1]

11 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

Thailand could see daily infections of more than 30,000

No sht Sherlock and what is your best guess when can this happen! Dont say August or its going to happen next week! Like maybe going to have 10k infection/day in August!

[RichardColeman]

 

13 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

The government last week approved a plan to acquire 120 million doses of vaccines in additional to this year's planned 105.5 million doses, government spokesman Anucha Burapachaisri said in a statement.

'approved a plan' - translation : NOT ORDERED

 

[mark131v]

Unfortunately the eejits in charge have shown themselves completely unable to plan for best or indeed worst case numbers

 

Nothing they proclaim is worth listening to they having proven themselves utterly inept

 

They demonstrate the reverse midas touch, everything they touch turns to <deleted>...

[wensiensheng]

57 minutes ago, Frank Abegnale said:

It COULD hit 30k, . . . or it might not. 

I think they have made projections based some scientific analysis of data available to them, but not to you. It may or may not end up being accurate.

 

Your comment is based on absolutely nothing, and says absolutely nothing.

 

I know who I would rather listen to.

[wensiensheng]

46 minutes ago, RandolphGB said:

The current mortality rate for covid in Thailand is 0.8%
 

Daily cases of 30,000 would lead to around 240 deaths - or four people in every million of the population. 
 

The average age of those deaths is 80+ with two co-morbidities.

 

 

Could you give a source for the stat “average age of those deaths is 80+ with two co morbidities”.

 

thanks

[internationalism]

no, just 2 weeks ago they said that 10k is probable at the end of year.

 

but after second though, with 1k rising daily, we are only month away from this perspective

[Makem]

Wonder what the figure will be when TAT estimate it?

[Khabib]

2 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

I think they have made projections based some scientific analysis of data available to them, but not to you. It may or may not end up being accurate.

 

Your comment is based on absolutely nothing, and says absolutely nothing.

 

I know who I would rather listen to.

Available to who?, you must be having a laugh

[Dogmatix]

More victim blaming by the perpetrators of this human rights outrage.

 

More behind the curve predictions. Actual cases must be over 30k and reported cases will soon follow.  But 30k is by no means a worst case scenario.  60k is easily possible, if we follow a similar trajectory to India and it could be even worse.  

[ukrules]

3 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Even if only half those additional deaths were covid, then Thailand is approaching 2% death rate.

Unlikely to be 2% due to COVID, which suggests that the numbers are very wrong.

 

The numbers are always wrong, everywhere.

[mommysboy]

You can only get the numbers down with a stricter lockdown.  The Government is trying to shift responsibility to individuals, whilst presumably blaming poor performance thus far on bad personal behaviour.

[Sheryl]

3 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

Could you give a source for the stat “average age of those deaths is 80+ with two co morbidities”.

 

thanks

There is no possible source for this as it is completely untrue.

 

In Thailand, most COVID deaths have been in people aged 40 -65. I don't offhand recall ever seeing a report of a COVID death in someone over 80 here, if there were any they were very, very few. There have been deaths in people well under 40 and even in children.

 

Even in Western countries where the disease has swept through old age homes, the average age of COVID deaths is  below 80. 

[The Cipher]

10 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

Even in Western countries where the disease has swept through old age homes, the average age of COVID deaths is  below 80. 

I was unable to find enough data to confirm or deny this with quick research, but did stumble upon this interesting graph. Presented without further comment.

 

[daveAustin]

5 hours ago, ripstanley said:

If testing was increased then that number may already be surpassed.

Indeed. 10k+ positives a day from 70,000 tests. Imagine if they tested one million per day!

[Sheryl]

6 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

I was unable to find enough data to confirm or deny this with quick research, but did stumble upon this interesting graph. Presented without further comment.

 

Certainly, older people have a higher case fatality rate- not just for COVID but for anything.

 

That does nto mean that the average age of those who died will be over 80. Average age of those who died is influenced not just by age specific fatality rates but by age specific infectoin rates - who gets it in the first place. In Thailand the infection have tended to be in younger, economically active people.  With the result that most deaths have also been in that group.

 

Many western countries now find that the ages of those being hospitalized and dying is trending downward as a result of high vaccination rates among the elderly. Earlier in the pandemic the virus swept through nursing homes which led to many elderly deaths in the US and Europe.

[RubbaJohnny]

6 hours ago, ripstanley said:

If testing was increased then that number may already be surpassed.

With 60 million unvaxxeed the upper limit may be when all the poor vulnerabel are dead, We'll know it's really hits the fan when topknobs go off radar in their private jets to join redBS boy at the Dubai Shindig  or Black Frest gateau chateau

[ukrules]

1 hour ago, Sheryl said:

That does nto mean that the average age of those who died will be over 80. Average age of those who died is influenced not just by age specific fatality rates but by age specific infectoin rates - who gets it in the first place. In Thailand the infection have tended to be in younger, economically active people.  With the result that most deaths have also been in that group.

 

Many western countries now find that the ages of those being hospitalized and dying is trending downward as a result of high vaccination rates among the elderly. Earlier in the pandemic the virus swept through nursing homes which led to many elderly deaths in the US and Europe.

I believe it's old information, at some point last year in the UK the average age of a COVID death was indeed 84 years old which was notably ironic as the average age amongst the general population is just under 82 - this made the news.

 

Like you say - that situation wouldn't have lasted very long, it soon runs out of 84 year olds and moves on to the younger.

[sammieuk1]

Just about the only place outside China where the normal rampant virus behaves itself and produces around about the same figures to fit with predictions ????

[Soikhaonoiken]

I don't think it is at its worst, I think 30,000 will be the norm... 

[metisdead]

A post with unsubstantiated information regarding extra deaths in Thailand has been removed as well as the reply.  Please provide a valid link to the source of information when posting. 

[bkk6060]

Seems most possible predictions made have come true.  That white haired Doctor said 10,000 a few months back and here we are.  Look at Indonesia now.

Unfortunately 30,000 seems within reach.

[Mickeymaus]

TAT and the government said in 120 days Thailand will be opened. So I guess then Covid will not be a problem anymore. But perhaps this is just a new version of the Thai "tomorrow". The day that will not come so soon... 

[ikke1959]

Maybe sooner than expected