Thailand reports 15,376 new COVID-19 cases, 87 more deaths

[DrJack54]

10 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

I have noticed a couple of times that the government now talks in terms of vaccinating 300k people a day through to the end of the year. 

Yes in one of your posts yesterday, I was going to say......"if we could be guaranteed 350k doses every day onwards, I would grab that deal in a heartbeat"

Seems they have capacity to have a 350k vaccinations every day benchmark if adequate supply is available. 

Edited July 26, 2021 by DrJack54

[placeholder]

27 minutes ago, dan42 said:

Myammar around 8% fatality rate...That's horrendous... God know what's going on there...

Given the utter state of disrepair of the public health system in Myanmar, I don't think there are any reliable figures available. That said, because their public health system is in disrepair, their mortality rate is virtually certain to be higher than the average.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

20 minutes ago, anchadian said:

 

A well known traditional Thai medicine is gaining steam as a potential treatment for Covid despite its dubious scientific merit.

 

Fah Talai Jone, or andrographis paniculata, has been used to treat a number of different illnesses, including the flu, a sore throat, and inflammation. Now, the herb is also being used to treat mild Covid systems in “green level” patients, provided they are not pregnant or breastfeeding. Or have any underlying diseases.

 

https://thethaiger.com/news/national/traditional-thai-medicine-fah-talai-jone-gains-steam-as-a-treatment-despite-shaky-scientific-merit

 

From your linked article above:

 

"Further, the same department also admits that research conducted on Fah Talai Jone as a medicine to treat Covid has shown inconclusive results. Other experts go so far as to say that there is no solid evidence that this herb can boost immunity or even relieve the symptoms of Covid… Also, the Chao Phraya Abhaibhubejhr Hospital says that taking the herb in large quantities can damage the kidney and liver."

 

And yet, they're handing out these two items like candy to folks who test positive for COVID here with less serious symptoms.  And I'm assuming, one of the reasons is they're both readily available and relatively inexpensive in Thailand, despite being largely unproven.

 

Edited July 26, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[BestB]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

As of a few days ago on July 21, MoPH reported the breakdown of total then current hospitalizations (including alternate facilities) for BKK and its 5 adjoining provinces was:

 

51.78% no symptoms

26.3% mild symptoms

18.1% moderate symptoms

3.82% severe symptoms

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/369693274649003/?type=3

 

 

And, there was this over the weekend from a local TV report on Channel 3 re hospital capacity for COVID suitable beds. As of today, other reports are saying COVID hospital beds in the BKK region are maxed out full:

 

 

Thanks for that , all over sudden total picture is less dramatic than saying 15300 cases.

 

80% of those either have no symptoms or very mild.

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 minute ago, BestB said:

Thanks for that , all over sudden total picture is less dramatic than saying 15300 cases.

 

80% of those either have no symptoms or very mild.

 

 

 

4,289 COVID patients are in critical condition today in Thailand, and COVID and ICU hospital bed capacity is maxed out in the BKK region...

 

The total number of current critical condition COVID patients has more than doubled since the start of July.

 

How much less dramatic would you like?

 

[wensiensheng]

12 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

Show math plz. I can't seem to match your numbers.

Isn’t it about 2.5%? Not good, but better than 8%.

 

of course, the accuracy of the numbers is probably suspect. On the whole I think I would prefer not to get sick in Myanmar, of Covid or anything else.

[DrJack54]

13 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Roads around us look pretty empty today, it would appear that those that wanted to leave have and then one has to wonder where did they go since the holiday tomorrow was canceled, but then this is a soft lockdown.

The next few weeks might show how many folk exited Bangkok for (if you take Tuesday off work) is a 5 day break.

Here is screenshot of travel registration I filled into today for Travel. Reason 'optional'. 

[Blumpie]

4 minutes ago, BestB said:

Thanks for that , all over sudden total picture is less dramatic than saying 15300 cases.

 

80% of those either have no symptoms or very mild.

 

 

It has been no different all around the world.  This is how COVID works.  It always has this entire pandemic.  

[Cake Monster]

2 hours ago, smedly said:

Chonburi is in trouble especially Siracha and Pattaya, with only targetted testing the numbers are sure to be much higher, stay safe folks - look after yourself as nobody else will

Pattaya and Sriracha are on the Coast, but we are hearing little about any serious Infections inland.

This could become a major issue as just a few KM inland from these two Coastal cities are some of the Main Trading Estate areas on the Eastern Seaboard.

I refer to Amata City at Bowin Etc

[Eric Loh]

10 minutes ago, edwinchester said:

It will be remarkable to see Prayut willingly step aside for anyone else. He'll only go if pushed, extremely hard, from those above.

Briefly as this not topic, he is vulnerable in Parliament where he hold a fragile 19 parties coalition that can vote no confidence. He also don’t have the backing of the army and his ET faction has decline in prestige by design by higher authority. Most importantly he has little support from current highest institution. Matter of when rather than how. 

[atpeace]

11 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Your post seems contradictory. Did you mean to say evidence that lockdowns aren’t beneficial?

 

assuming that you did, have you considered that the wave of delta Covid began in April and the effect that it might have had? I mean, according to your logic, if there were no Covid at all, and there was a lockdown for no good reason, it would “create” deaths. Hmm, perhaps back to the drawing board on that one.

Yes, I was trying to say lockdowns "might" not be beneficial?

 

The numbers I listed are alarming but maybe the article has bad info.  Not sure, just wondering how to explain away 13,500 excess deaths.  As for you argument, if Delta caused all the Covid deaths since May, the death numbers would be the same as reported just the variant would be different.

 

Hey, I'm not trying to be right.  Just trying to understand how roughly an excess 13,500 people died in May in June. I hope I'm wrong and would appreciate somebody showing my  error ( high probability ) or the articles errors.

[wensiensheng]

1 hour ago, James105 said:

Lockdowns also kill people due to poverty and other conditions such as suicide.    I'd expect an increase in preventable deaths due to a combination of covid and lockdown measures. Even those who are dying on the streets that are testing positive are unlikely to be getting enough nutritional food in their bodies to be able to deal with Covid as easily as someone who can afford to eat properly.   

 

I'm getting increasingly concerned that there is still no indication from this government that any financial support is going to be offered to those who have lost their incomes due to lockdown measures.   If this stays the same how long is it before society starts to break down and desperate people start doing desperate things to simply survive?  2-3 months?  

Your second paragraph makes complete sense to me.

 

the first makes partial sense because it only includes some of the applicable factors. Not a surprise since it becomes more and more complicated as the logic is worked through.

 

yes, poverty and other conditions do lead to suicides when lockdowns are introduced. They can be alleviated by the measures talked about in your second paragraph, but they do exist. On the flip side, less traffic due to lockdowns leads to reduced road deaths. An ugly trade off to be sure, but it’s there. And then, rife Covid conditions and the inability to obtain proper medical care and grief from the death of loved ones, can also lead to suicides. Lockdowns cause economic hardship, rife covid also causes economic hardship due to workers getting sick.

 

so I don’t argue with what you say in your first paragraph, simply that i don’t think it is complete and is unquantified.

 

edit: the same can be said for my arguments also. They aren’t complete and are unquantified.

Edited July 26, 2021 by wensiensheng

[The Cipher]

1 minute ago, wensiensheng said:

Isn’t it about 2.5%? Not good, but better than 8%.

 

of course, the accuracy of the numbers is probably suspect. On the whole I think I would prefer not to get sick in Myanmar, of Covid or anything else.

Yeah. Based on the numbers provided, ~2.5% would be the correct calculation.

 

But as the second part of your comment correctly states, the numbers in Myanmar are almost certainly wrong to the point of uselessness. Nevertheless we've already seen several members in this thread jump on the obviously wrong stat as supporting evidence for their outlook on the situation. ????‍♂️

[atpeace]

25 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Yes. Current numbers would be much higher with zero restrictions. That's a given. 

Explain please.  13,500 excess deaths but less than 2000 Covid deaths in May-June.  The more i think it through, the more the chances of the info in the article is bogus.  I'm not arguing for or against lockdowns...

[FarFlungFalang]

51 minutes ago, dan42 said:

Myammar around 8% fatality rate...That's horrendous... God know what's going on there...

Don't you think that might be a testing and counting anomaly?

[wensiensheng]

1 minute ago, The Cipher said:

Yeah. Based on the numbers provided, ~2.5% would be the correct calculation.

 

But as the second part of your comment correctly states, the numbers in Myanmar are almost certainly wrong to the point of uselessness. Nevertheless we've already seen several members in this thread jump on the obviously wrong stat as supporting evidence for their outlook on the situation. ????‍♂️

True. But the overall theme that poor or non existent health care will increase the fatality rate seems valid to me. It’s hard to quantify it because if the health service is so poor that the fatality rises, it almost inevitably means that the situation is so chaotic that the numbers are suspect.

[wensiensheng]

3 minutes ago, atpeace said:

Explain please.  13,500 excess deaths but less than 2000 Covid deaths in May-June.  The more i think it through, the more the chances of the info in the article is bogus.  I'm not arguing for or against lockdowns...

The implication is that the true figure for Covid deaths is much higher than officially stated. The reason for that implication is that the only factor differentiating May and June this year and the same months in the previous 5 years, is that this year Covid is present.

 

not saying that it is true or not, but that is the implication.

 

Put another way, If you ignore official death figures and ask yourself, why are deaths in those months so much higher in 2021 than the average for the last 5 years, what reasons do you come up with? That is the conundrum to be considered.

[FarFlungFalang]

46 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Roads around us look pretty empty today, it would appear that those that wanted to leave have and then one has to wonder where did they go since the holiday tomorrow was canceled, but then this is a soft lockdown.

It definitely a soft lock of a lockdown implement by a bunch of soft locks. ( sorry for the spelling error).

[Cake Monster]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Another weekend day (Sunday) with less than 100,000 total vaccinations.

 

Falling further and further behind. Just barely over 5 percent fully vaccinated with two shots.

 

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/

 

John,

Please do not take this the wrong way, but the figures from your Chart are completely different from those in the original Op Post from Thai Visa Chart as posted at the head of this Article.

Your Chart is saying there are 3,777,712 people fully Vaccinated (presumably 2 doses )

The Other chart states that only 2,599,663 have had 2 doses.

Your Chart says 12,254,847 have had a single shot

The other chart says 15,869,844 had a single shot.

Total doses your chart will be 19,810,271 doses

The other chart total will be 21,069,170 doses.

Even the total number of doses given does not tally up, and has well over 1.1 Million Doses discrepancy. These are not small numbers

I am confused John, and really dont know what to believe any more from these charts.

Although I am starting to sway toward your chart as being the genuine numbers.

[onthedarkside]

A post linking to a Bangkok Post article has been removed. The Post does not allow its content to be linked here, and thus forum rules don't allow it either.

 

[DrJack54]

Has anyone heard of street report from Bang Na, Soi 105. Temple that has just recorded cluster with their young monk.

 

[edwinchester]

31 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Briefly as this not topic, he is vulnerable in Parliament where he hold a fragile 19 parties coalition that can vote no confidence. He also don’t have the backing of the army and his ET faction has decline in prestige by design by higher authority. Most importantly he has little support from current highest institution. Matter of when rather than how. 

I just don't see it, especially with covid-19 cases still on an upward trajectory. Nobody else is going to step up when they can still conceivably be held accountable for the mess still to follow. Give it time when the situation is obviously alot better, only then will Prayut have to face any serious leadership challenge.

Disclaimer....goes without saying all imho.

[The Cipher]

1 hour ago, wensiensheng said:

True. But the overall theme that poor or non existent health care will increase the fatality rate seems valid to me. It’s hard to quantify it because if the health service is so poor that the fatality rises, it almost inevitably means that the situation is so chaotic that the numbers are suspect.

Sure. It makes sense that poor quality of healthcare is correlated with higher death rates. But it's not the only contributing factor or even the most important factor related to Covid. For instance, we know that the median age in Myanmar is only ~28yrs; how much of an effect does that have on mortality?

 

There's so much underlying context that ought to be captured in these discussions but isn't. Why? Because it's hard and actually involves application of a brain to a problem.

Edited July 26, 2021 by onthedarkside
Trolling comment and odd font style removed

[retsdon]

1 hour ago, dan42 said:

Myammar around 8% fatality rate...That's horrendous... God know what's going on there...

No testing worth the name and the only cases counted are those requiring urgent hospitalization is my guess. Plus the country has a pitiful doctor to patient ratio that's on a par with rural India.

[Eric Loh]

2 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

A slight correction, although your points are completely valid.

 

Delta is roughly 3 times or 200% more transmissible than the original Wuhan strain, not 1000 times. That already makes R0 (all else equal) three times larger, which makes Delta one of the most infectious respiratory diseases ever. Good enough already.

 

Also the article was July 6, I would assume Delta is now far greater than Alpha especially in Bangkok (and vaccines have barely moved forward)

 

My mistake. Meant to post that Delta has 1,000 more virus load than original variant. 
https://www.wishtv.com/news/coronavirus/study-delta-variant-carries-1000-times-more-viral-load-poses-greatest-covid-19-threat-to-date/

[mistral53]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

The death numbers bounce around a lot. Day to day changes mean almost nothing.

 

Thailand set a record high for daily deaths at 141 on July 17. The day before, the death count was 67. The day before that, 98.

 

From another perspective, 3 of the past 4 days have had death counts above 110.

 

In the four days before that, 3 of the 4 days had been in the 80s.

 

That kind of trend is not encouraging or stable.

 

The only time I start to worry is if there is an exponential increase in the death rate - the numbers bouncing around 100 is not critical.

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, atpeace said:

Don't want to get into the weeds but that is some damning evidence that lockdowns are beneficial.  Roughly 45,000 deaths per month in May and June and this represents "roughly" a 15% increase in deaths which equates to 13,500 excess deaths over 2 months.  This is unbelievable?  If true, it sure makes me wonder about the current lockdowns and deaths they are creating.  

 

Am I missing something?  Are the articles numbers correct?  Nice to see more than 2 months data.

You can see it in graph form here:

 

"Excess mortality is a more comprehensive measure of the total impact of the pandemic on deaths than the confirmed COVID-19 death count alone. It captures not only the confirmed deaths, but also COVID-19 deaths that were not correctly diagnosed and reported2 as well as deaths from other causes that are attributable to the overall crisis conditions." https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, Cake Monster said:

Please do not take this the wrong way, but the figures from your Chart are completely different from those in the original Op Post from Thai Visa Chart as posted at the head of this Article.

Your Chart is saying there are 3,777,712 people fully Vaccinated (presumably 2 doses )

The Other chart states that only 2,599,663 have had 2 doses.

 

You're misreading the labels on the other chart (the second one attached to the OP), which is in TH language.

 

The 2.59 million figure isn't a vaccine doses number. It's a different kind of statistic.

 

The vaccine numbers in the blue color chart I posted above are correct.

 

And they basically match with the official numbers from yesterday's MoPH report as excerpted below, except for the added vaccines from Sunday:

 

Doses up thru Saturday:

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106142991004034/372371534381177/?type=3

 

[BestB]

46 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

4,289 COVID patients are in critical condition today in Thailand, and COVID and ICU hospital bed capacity is maxed out in the BKK region...

 

The total number of current critical condition COVID patients has more than doubled since the start of July.

 

How much less dramatic would you like?

 

4000 patients is little different to 15000 tested positive on daily basis, But do not let facts get in a way of good fear monegring.

 

80% of people who tested positive, ie 80% of 15000 daily cases do not need any medical attention, but lets brush that aside and concentrate on 4000 in critical condition for entire month, ie lets brush aside 97% but concentrate on 3% , much better???? 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

2 minutes ago, BestB said:

4000 patients is little different to 15000 tested positive on daily basis, But do not let facts get in a way of good fear monegring.

 

80% of people who tested positive, ie 80% of 15000 daily cases do not need any medical attention, but lets brush that aside and concentrate on 4000 in critical condition for entire month, ie lets brush aside 97% but concentrate on 3% , much better???? 

When the Bangkok region runs out of critical care hospital beds with the critical patient counts still rising every day, such as currently is the case, Houston has a problem.