Prominent Thai doctor says lockdown measures aren’t working, tighter ones won’t work either, ease them to save the economy and consider an export ban on Covid19 vaccines and greatly boost vaccination program

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, Anton9 said:

Still don't understand why a country like Thailand,riddled with covid, has to put in place so many restrictions to foreign arrivals.

A vaccinated individual with a negative test would be more than enough.

To get the world and Thailand moving again then that is indeed the only way.

[sucit]

1 hour ago, Anton9 said:

Still don't understand why a country like Thailand,riddled with covid, has to put in place so many restrictions to foreign arrivals.

A vaccinated individual with a negative test would be more than enough.

Yes! It’s good to see some common sense. 

[sucit]

18 hours ago, Bluespunk said:

None of which has anything to do with the question I raised about how an end to lockdown at this point will ease infection rates. . 

Your question is completely nonsensical. 
 

Thailand has increased restrictions, and cases have gone up. Have they not? 
 

Recently UK eased restrictions, and cases went down. 
 

The point here isn’t so much that easing lockdowns reduced infections, but the actual point is, it just doesn’t matter. People are making up the reasons for decreases in infections as they see fit. Humans are human, and people will cross closed borders, people will put on dirty masks, people will come home after shopping and infect loved ones (who wears masks with no contact at home?). Covid infection curves follow very similar patterns and taper off in similar ways. It has little to nothing to do with restrictions. 

 

I realize you will never get it, but lockdowns will be shown to have a net negative impact in the end, with little to no impact on the long term number of infections. 
 

The only question you need to be asking is to yourself, and the question is why you think lockdowns work. 

Edited August 14, 2021 by sucit

[brewsterbudgen]

13 minutes ago, sucit said:

Your question is completely nonsensical. 
 

Thailand has increased restrictions, and cases have gone up. Have they not? 
 

Recently UK eased restrictions, and cases went down. 
 

The point here isn’t so much that easing lockdowns reduced infections, but the actual point is, it just doesn’t matter. People are making up the reasons for decreases in infections as they see fit. Humans are human, and people will cross closed borders, people will put on dirty masks, people will come home after shopping and infect loved ones (who wears masks with no contact at home?). Covid infection curves follow very similar patterns and taper off in similar ways. It has little to nothing to do with restrictions. 

 

I realize you will never get it, but lockdowns will be shown to have a net negative impact in the end, with little to no impact on the long term number of infections. 
 

The only question you need to be asking is to yourself, and the question is why you think lockdowns work. 

The damage caused by lockdowns won't be properly known for a long time. Only then can their effectiveness or ineffectiveness be truly measured.

 

[Anton9]

45 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

To get the world and Thailand moving again then that is indeed the only way.

For many countries that's the only requirements.

Thailand(and most SEA countries) are still living in 2020 with their paranoid and overkill approach.

[Bkk Brian]

4 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

For many countries that's the only requirements.

Thailand(and most SEA countries) are still living in 2020 with their paranoid and overkill approach.

Thats because of the low vaccination rates though. Once they are up then that is different and places like Thailand should do the same

Edited August 14, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[Anton9]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Thats because of the low vaccination rates though. Once they are up then that is different and places like Thailand should do the same

I don't think that's the reason, even with a low vaccination rate what would be the risk to let in double jabbed people with negative test?

I think it's more because of incompetent and authoritarian governments.

[Bkk Brian]

7 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

I don't think that's the reason, even with a low vaccination rate what would be the risk to let in double jabbed people with negative test?

I think it's more because of incompetent and authoritarian governments.

Its to do with virus control actually

[Bluespunk]

1 hour ago, sucit said:

Your question is completely nonsensical

Nope. 
 

UK lockdowns ended when the rate of infection fell to a rate the health service could cope with, mainly I should imagine due to a successful vaccination programme. 
 

The infection rate needs to come down to a level health services can cope with before ending a lockdown, it makes no sense to end one when numbers are increasing at ever higher rates. 

Edited August 14, 2021 by Bluespunk

[Anton9]

13 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Its to do with virus control actually

Still with this "virus control" nonsense.

Tell me what impact will have on the overall cases fully vaccinated foreigners entering the country.

Yeah,negligible,exactly

 

[bkkcanuck8]

1 hour ago, sucit said:

Your question is completely nonsensical. 
 

Thailand has increased restrictions, and cases have gone up. Have they not? 
 

Recently UK eased restrictions, and cases went down. 
 

The point here isn’t so much that easing lockdowns reduced infections, but the actual point is, it just doesn’t matter. People are making up the reasons for decreases in infections as they see fit. Humans are human, and people will cross closed borders, people will put on dirty masks, people will come home after shopping and infect loved ones (who wears masks with no contact at home?). Covid infection curves follow very similar patterns and taper off in similar ways. It has little to nothing to do with restrictions. 

 

I realize you will never get it, but lockdowns will be shown to have a net negative impact in the end, with little to no impact on the long term number of infections. 
 

The only question you need to be asking is to yourself, and the question is why you think lockdowns work. 

In China, the virus was out of control.  Strict controls reduced the outbreak to almost nothing and returned the country to a state of almost normalcy considering what the rest of the world would go through.  When the virus first started getting out of control in Thailand, Thailand implemented similar controls recommended by China's experience and the country became a safe haven for a year and the country returned to a state of almost normalcy compared to the rest of the world.   These controls do cause pain though, and the government a year later was averse to taking the same hard decisions and let the virus get out of control and as a result the economic pain is greater over a longer period of time.

[placeholder]

5 hours ago, Cuba said:

Are you implying the government don't know where to get them?

No. I'm saying that they're going to have to wait. Other countries are also being made to wait. Why should Thailand be special? Demand has long since outstripped supply.

Edited August 14, 2021 by placeholder

[Bkk Brian]

22 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

Still with this "virus control" nonsense.

Tell me what impact will have on the overall cases fully vaccinated foreigners entering the country.

Yeah,negligible,exactly

 

Virus control. Easy to grasp. The reason even well vaxxed countries like the UK have red list countries for entry. Get used to it. Its here to stay for the immediate future. 

[kiwikeith]

On 8/13/2021 at 1:04 AM, internationalism said:

what allowing import by private hospitals, without the government interaction and without taxes?

From the very beginning of  year some 3 hospital networks wanted to buy some 20mln sinovac. They were blocked.

There were few other attempts for some other vax.

So now moderna import is curtailed to only 5mln, from which 1mln for the red cross/army

Where have all the flowers gone? 

This whole vaccine debacle is a mess, not enough ingredients available, they were gazumped when India broke out, must have counted the chickens before the eggs. 

[jacko45k]

13 hours ago, sucit said:

Recently UK eased restrictions, and cases went down. 

Keep your perspective, Infections fell in the UK when the schools closed for the summer break, dropping from around 50,000 daily to 20,000 daily. Since then restrictions have been all but removed and infection numbers climbed back into the 30,000s. I do not see a correlation to reducing restrictions and reducing infections. 

[sucit]

14 hours ago, brewsterbudgen said:

The damage caused by lockdowns won't be properly known for a long time. Only then can their effectiveness or ineffectiveness be truly measured.

 

That’s not true. We already know things like overdoses have spiked 50% in a San Francisco study. So imagine all the deleterious effects being added up, domestic abuse, depression, suicide. 

Edited August 15, 2021 by sucit

[sucit]

14 hours ago, Bluespunk said:

Nope. 
 

UK lockdowns ended when the rate of infection fell to a rate the health service could cope with, mainly I should imagine due to a successful vaccination programme. 
 

The infection rate needs to come down to a level health services can cope with before ending a lockdown, it makes no sense to end one when numbers are increasing at ever higher rates. 

Bro, uk lockdowns ended, infection rate dropped. Not much else to discuss. You’re responding “nope” to facts. You seem to be making the mistake of assuming lockdowns are effective. 

[sucit]

1 hour ago, jacko45k said:

Keep your perspective, Infections fell in the UK when the schools closed for the summer break, dropping from around 50,000 daily to 20,000 daily. Since then restrictions have been all but removed and infection numbers climbed back into the 30,000s. I do not see a correlation to reducing restrictions and reducing infections. 

I didn’t say there was. Read closely you’ll find I’m saying it does not matter. Infection curves follow a similar pattern everywhere in the world. 
 

I feel like I am speaking with three year olds sometimes. Really, if lockdowns worked, why did Sweden get pullbacks in infection rates? Sweden should just be an utter mess if lockdowns really worked, and Thailand should be seeing decreasing numbers right now if regulations worked. I’m just not sure how on gods green earth people have not proven to themselves that infections tapering is caused by properties within the biology of the virus, and nothing we do. 
 

Maybe a more simple way to look at it: Thailand locked its borders. Why do we even have the delta variant then? It’s because humans are human. A rich Thai billionaire flies his Cambodian mistress over to Thailand during the closed border period. You see, it doesn’t work, and it’s proven not to work, so why keep doing it? Hopefully thereis some clarity in there for you. 
 

 

Edited August 15, 2021 by sucit

[Bluespunk]

2 hours ago, sucit said:

I didn’t say there was. Read closely you’ll find I’m saying it does not matter. Infection curves follow a similar pattern everywhere in the world. 
 

I feel like I am speaking with three year olds sometimes. Really, if lockdowns worked, why did Sweden get pullbacks in infection rates? Sweden should just be an utter mess if lockdowns really worked, and Thailand should be seeing decreasing numbers right now if regulations worked. I’m just not sure how on gods green earth people have not proven to themselves that infections tapering is caused by properties within the biology of the virus, and nothing we do. 
 

Maybe a more simple way to look at it: Thailand locked its borders. Why do we even have the delta variant then? It’s because humans are human. A rich Thai billionaire flies his Cambodian mistress over to Thailand during the closed border period. You see, it doesn’t work, and it’s proven not to work, so why keep doing it? Hopefully thereis some clarity in there for you. 
 

 

If you can’t answer without arrogant and patronising comments you really should consider why you are unable to refrain from such. 
 

Not only do I have clarity, I also note that nothing you say answers the question I posed. 
 

How will ending a lockdown in the midst of rising numbers help ease infection rates?

 

The lockdown came about because of the danger of overwhelming the health services, and until the number of infections drops to a level where the health services can cope it makes no sense to end it. 
 

 

Edited August 15, 2021 by Bluespunk

[jacko45k]

5 hours ago, sucit said:

Hopefully there is some clarity in there for you. 
 

Nope. I find it unlikely and a view lacking in thought and reality. Your reasoning is flawed, the absence of something is not proof. Insults are the resort of a failed reasoning... stick them where the sun don't shine.

Keep trying.

Edited August 15, 2021 by jacko45k

[sandhurstmolonski]

He is spot on , it's now well versed 

LOCKDOWNS DONT WORK , and cases don't matter , we are pumping out massive numbers here , the only way forward is high levels of vaccination .

But this lockdown nonsense is just that , it hinders active updated immunes and it destroys lives , nothing has changed here other than testing , it's time to be logical and cease all lockdown BS immediately .

Get on with life , get vaccinated , a functional immune required , but we cannot carry on like this , it's doesn't work and we tried prior .

 

Singapore model , cases not matter , vaccinations above 80 % over time , get on with life . Well said doctor .

[bkkcanuck8]

49 minutes ago, sandhurstmolonski said:

He is spot on , it's now well versed 

LOCKDOWNS DONT WORK , and cases don't matter , we are pumping out massive numbers here , the only way forward is high levels of vaccination .

But this lockdown nonsense is just that , it hinders active updated immunes and it destroys lives , nothing has changed here other than testing , it's time to be logical and cease all lockdown BS immediately .

Get on with life , get vaccinated , a functional immune required , but we cannot carry on like this , it's doesn't work and we tried prior .

 

Singapore model , cases not matter , vaccinations above 80 % over time , get on with life . Well said doctor .

Thailand tried lock-downs prior and they worked, China did as well and they worked, Korea has in the past and it worked (they are loosening up a bit now that they have a high vaccination rate).   If you stop reduce the contact between people to nominal, they have a very hard time transmitting the virus (it does not magically jump across long distances -- it is transmitted person to person).  If you have a dark-red zone - you lock it down, you then lock-it down district by district, muban by muban at a very granular level.  You test as many people as you can test as often as you can and quarantine infected households until they are clear...  You track and trace all contacts of those infected.  If you are really competent, those infected have limited contacts to infect another...  the cases rapidly drop to a nominal number, as a muban caseload drops to zero, you open it up.  As a district case-load drops to zero you remove it from lock-down.  In a month or two you will reduce the caseload across a dark-red zone to manageable levels where comprehensive and ongoing testing as well as tracking and tracing keeps it manageable.  If you are competent, you don't get to the point of having dark-red zones in the first place.  Then society can return to some sort of normalcy and start recovering.  You let it run wild like a forest fire and you will end up having people running for the hills.   If you had a 'fully vaccinated' population it also makes it more resistant and harder to transmit in the general population.  Simply put, if the controls were applied quickly and efficiently - a full lockdown of a city should not be necessary.  Incompetence in control and you end up in a mess which is what Thailand did the second time around.... Full vaccination in Thailand right now is a pipe-dream though because the government has been utterly incompetent and acquiring vaccines - the worst in the region for doing so....

Edited August 15, 2021 by bkkcanuck8

[A1Str8]

Listen to Doc. He's right.

In the west they recognized it already and acted quickly. 

[sucit]

10 hours ago, Bluespunk said:

If you can’t answer without arrogant and patronising comments you really should consider why you are unable to refrain from such. 
 

Not only do I have clarity, I also note that nothing you say answers the question I posed. 
 

How will ending a lockdown in the midst of rising numbers help ease infection rates?

 

The lockdown came about because of the danger of overwhelming the health services, and until the number of infections drops to a level where the health services can cope it makes no sense to end it. 
 

 

Your question was how will lifting lockdowns stop hospitals from being full. I have told you upon increasing restrictions, hospitals have filled up more. There is not much more to say if you cannot understand. 

[Bluespunk]

Just now, sucit said:

Your question was how will lifting lockdowns stop hospitals from being full. I have told you upon increasing restrictions, hospitals have filled up more. There is not much more to say if you cannot understand. 

No.
 

My question was how ending the lockdown will ease infection rates. 

[sucit]

23 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

Thailand tried lock-downs prior and they worked, China did as well and they worked, Korea has in the past and it worked (they are loosening up a bit now that they have a high vaccination rate).   If you stop reduce the contact between people to nominal, they have a very hard time transmitting the virus (it does not magically jump across long distances -- it is transmitted person to person).  If you have a dark-red zone - you lock it down, you then lock-it down district by district, muban by muban at a very granular level.  You test as many people as you can test as often as you can and quarantine infected households until they are clear...  You track and trace all contacts of those infected.  If you are really competent, those infected have limited contacts to infect another...  the cases rapidly drop to a nominal number, as a muban caseload drops to zero, you open it up.  As a district case-load drops to zero you remove it from lock-down.  In a month or two you will reduce the caseload across a dark-red zone to manageable levels where comprehensive and ongoing testing as well as tracking and tracing keeps it manageable.  If you are competent, you don't get to the point of having dark-red zones in the first place.  Then society can return to some sort of normalcy and start recovering.  You let it run wild like a forest fire and you will end up having people running for the hills.   If you had a 'fully vaccinated' population it also makes it more resistant and harder to transmit in the general population.  Simply put, if the controls were applied quickly and efficiently - a full lockdown of a city should not be necessary.  Incompetence in control and you end up in a mess which is what Thailand did the second time around.... Full vaccination in Thailand right now is a pipe-dream though because the government has been utterly incompetent and acquiring vaccines - the worst in the region for doing so....

Then why do countries that did not lock down at all havedrastic drops in numbers of cases? Can you answer that? 
 

The answer is the drastic drops are everywhere, lockdowns or no lockdowns, because the virus moves through the populations at this point no matter what you do. 
 

For the life of me I can’t help but just tell you all how you cannot see how obvious so much of this is. For example, Thailand’s borders are closed. Thailand is infected with covid! It makes zero sense to leave the borders closed, that is very detrimental to the country. It’s not as if we have 14 cases here or something controllable. How is this not blatantly obvious? 

[sucit]

2 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

No.
 

My question was how ending the lockdown will ease infection rates. 

How will having lockdowns ease infection rates is the better question. That’s rhetorical btw. Your input Is not required in these matters.

[Bluespunk]

7 minutes ago, sucit said:

How will having lockdowns ease infection rates is the better question. That’s rhetorical btw. Your input Is not required in these matters.

You don’t decide on whether I input or not. 
 

I disagree that your question is better, but that’s your opinion. 
 

Still doesn’t relate to my post. 

Edited August 15, 2021 by Bluespunk

[bkkcanuck8]

2 hours ago, sucit said:

Then why do countries that did not lock down at all havedrastic drops in numbers of cases? Can you answer that? 
 

The answer is the drastic drops are everywhere, lockdowns or no lockdowns, because the virus moves through the populations at this point no matter what you do. 
 

For the life of me I can’t help but just tell you all how you cannot see how obvious so much of this is. For example, Thailand’s borders are closed. Thailand is infected with covid! It makes zero sense to leave the borders closed, that is very detrimental to the country. It’s not as if we have 14 cases here or something controllable. How is this not blatantly obvious? 

Which country, which days and what was the vaccination rate -- each country is different. 

 

In the UK July 19th was the end of the lock-down... it was also also when the vaccination rate hit just around 70% for 2 doses, more for one dose (on top of those that were not vaccinated but had covid - aka hard vaccinations - and the UK had a lot of those).   It would likely take something like 7 to 10 days to really start into the process of antibodies, so as the days go on more people should be somewhat protected from that day on.   The new cases were higher than they were now starting at between Jul 13th -> July 22, but from that point on the new cases per day from Jul 23 to now somewhat constant and it is still higher than it was from around Jan 24th to July 11th or so.   Thailand has no near that percentage receiving the first dose, let alone the 2nd... and likely won't be close to reaching it until sometime early next year at the earliest (Thailand also has far fewer that were immunized the hard way). 

 

The UK also blocked export of the vaccine early on -- even though other countries ordered some of that earlier... which is why all countries should exclude UK Pharmaceutical industry from any free trade agreements (and if they are part of it now - remove it)... as UK has shown that they are treating it as a national security dependent company and countries should react accordingly.

Edited August 15, 2021 by bkkcanuck8

[placeholder]

8 hours ago, sandhurstmolonski said:

He is spot on , it's now well versed 

LOCKDOWNS DONT WORK , and cases don't matter , we are pumping out massive numbers here , the only way forward is high levels of vaccination .

But this lockdown nonsense is just that , it hinders active updated immunes and it destroys lives , nothing has changed here other than testing , it's time to be logical and cease all lockdown BS immediately .

Get on with life , get vaccinated , a functional immune required , but we cannot carry on like this , it's doesn't work and we tried prior .

 

Singapore model , cases not matter , vaccinations above 80 % over time , get on with life . Well said doctor .

So, are you in possession of 100 million doses or so of vaccine?