Op-Ed: Thai view on the new AUKUS alliance

[Rimmer]

An off topic deflection post has been removed

[Tanomazu]

3 hours ago, steven100 said:

i'm not so sure about your assumption.....   

given that all of the countries you mentioned are fully aware that China was likely responsible for the Covid-19,  and the devastation it caused to all their economies. 

I would suspect many of them would boycott China made if the majority took a lead in doing so.   just my opinion.

They are not in the slightest concerned about betrayal and the AUKUS,  that will all be forgotten in a few months time.  

I think you're wrong about that. The EU as a  whole is very deeply concerned about Biden's betrayal with AUKUS. Not the UK or Australia obviously, they don't care about that. However, the US was always seen as the benevolent protector that you could always count on to defend you if Europe was attacked. Already with Bush the EU was under pressure, then with Trump the notion of what if the US is actually not to be relied on as a partner raised its head. That was filed under "aberration" and "well it's just Trump". However, with Biden's unilateral withdrawal in Afghanistan and then his secret deal with the UK and OZ most EU countries have woken up to the realisation that Trump was not an aberration, but rather that Biden continues the unreliable course and possibly the crumbling US is not to be trusted as serious partner.

 

This applies especially in France, but in Germany too rumblings of distrust of America are getting ever louder. If you look at the graph below you will see that Germany imports far more from China than the US, and in terms of export markets whilst the US is at the top China is fairly close. And there's another factor, namely China is a growing economy whereas the US does not compare in terms of growth figures, so if one were to look to the future one would have to choose the Chinese market. Especially for car manufacturers.

 

While Americans and Australians seriously consider that China caused Covid 19 this is not seen in the same way in Germany, France, etc, where the pandemic is just seen as a natural event.

 

Reflexively, in the past Germany and the EU would have followed a boycott of China. However, now things are quite different. You can see that also in Germany's reaction to US demands that Germany boycott Russia's Nordstream pipeline. Germany chose Russia instead.

 

 

Edited September 22, 2021 by Tanomazu

[Tanomazu]

10 hours ago, Edwin Cameron said:

Thailand do you really think that China will be your loyal ally above the U.S Britain and Australia, we have a right to have a good strategic defence system,you have to remember they are nuclear powered Sub's, not Sub's with nuclear warheads, Thailand is looking at China with 'Rose coloured glass's' one day I can see AUKUS coming to your defence, look what happened to Australia when they questioned there human rights for Uighurs. they went ballistic and tried the Bully Boy tactic that has backfired,also where does this Covid 19 originate from? ask them a question about it and they call you names like America's running dog or chewing gum stuck to the bottom of there shoes, they said it. We have a right to defend ourselves just as you have the right also.

It's on reflection absolutely correct that the US will not supply submarines with nuclear warheads to Australia. It will never happen. Because the US do not want a nuclear war with China as the US, and possibly the whole planet, would then be destroyed. The US do, however, want submarine superiority over China, because submarines are the only option the US have. Hence giving submarines to Oz.

 

However, the question is without going to war with China, destroying its anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) systems, which US analysts concede can destroy US aircraft carriers at the press of a button, how can the US defend itself, or rather its Taiwanese ally? Currently the Pentagon is focusing on submarines. However, with new technology like drones or stealth fighters, both of which China is developing, as well as developing its own submarine forces, it is by no means certain that the US could prevent an invasion of Taiwan, or put in place an effective blockade of China.

 

AUKUS will not come to the defence of anybody. Simply because the US can not afford to go to war with China or risk its own destruction and the planet's. All AUKUS does is to increase the opportunities for US and UK defense exports in terms of submarines, and also to save it money. As Tom Tugendhat, chair of the British Commons’ Foreign Affairs Committee, has said, "Bringing together the military-industrial complex of these three allies together is a step-change in the relationship. We’ve always been interoperable, but this aims at much more. From artificial intelligence to advanced technology the US, UK and Australia will now be able to cost save by increasing platform sharing and innovation costs.". AUKUS is about saving money and making money for the US industrial complex. Whether even the US can defend Taiwan purely with submarines is very doubtful.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS#Features

 

In a way AUKUS is merely a cost-cutting exercise for countries struck by the cost of Covid.

Edited September 22, 2021 by Tanomazu

[Tanomazu]

Did I just see Biden say at the UN "We will not go it alone" and keep a straight face? This after they put in place AUKUS in total secrecy without telling their close allies?

 

Politicians lie without shame, really.

[bangkokbonecollector]

A positive addition to the wall we must continue to build against the CCP's aggressive and illegal tactics. Just don't give China the Kra canal that they want and need and protect Taiwan at all costs. If we can keep them isolated in the South China Sea and out of Taiwan, they can't do <deleted> to the world. Taiwan will very soon be seen as the Saudi Arabia of the Far East; A country which must never lose its status quo.

[Tanomazu]

1 hour ago, bangkokbonecollector said:

A positive addition to the wall we must continue to build against the CCP's aggressive and illegal tactics. Just don't give China the Kra canal that they want and need and protect Taiwan at all costs. If we can keep them isolated in the South China Sea and out of Taiwan, they can't do <deleted> to the world. Taiwan will very soon be seen as the Saudi Arabia of the Far East; A country which must never lose its status quo.

And why would Taiwan be crucial to these secret Chinese world-domination plans, that only you are aware of?

[bangkokbonecollector]

3 hours ago, Tanomazu said:

And why would Taiwan be crucial to these secret Chinese world-domination plans, that only you are aware of?

If you could quote me where I said stated that China (I said the CCP) have a secret world-domination plan, then I might reply. However, if you cannot grasp why losing Taiwan would be of great strategic loss, then I really don't feel you are worth debating with anyway. Good luck

[Tanomazu]

1 hour ago, bangkokbonecollector said:

If you could quote me where I said stated that China (I said the CCP) have a secret world-domination plan, then I might reply. However, if you cannot grasp why losing Taiwan would be of great strategic loss, then I really don't feel you are worth debating with anyway. Good luck

When you have a USA where one of the most senior generals, Gen Mark Milley, has assured his Chinese counterparts that the US will not strike China, and a China where Xi Jinping is still trying to secure his power domestically the strategic value of Taiwan is precisely zero.

 

You said "they can't do <deleted> to the world", as if China had some secret plan to conquer the world. Nothing could be further from reality really.

[bangkokbonecollector]

35 minutes ago, Tanomazu said:

When you have a USA where one of the most senior generals, Gen Mark Milley, has assured his Chinese counterparts that the US will not strike China, and a China where Xi Jinping is still trying to secure his power domestically the strategic value of Taiwan is precisely zero.

 

You said "they can't do <deleted> to the world", as if China had some secret plan to conquer the world. Nothing could be further from reality really.

Can't do <deleted> to the world and secret plan to take over the world are very two different comments. Yeah I do realise the CCP's bravado is just to drum up nationalistic support in order to maintain control just like the 'random' investigations into a CCP members finances when they get too big for their boots. The fact remains Taiwan is strategically important and the Americans will want the status quo to remain as is. I never mentioned anything about an invasion did I? I said status quo which is basically internal politics and making sure the pro CCP camp in Taiwanese politics does not get into power. Pointless talking to someone who just makes up what you said in their own mind and runs with it.

 

To be honest I wouldn't be too sure the CCP's ambitions are really as internal as you and others claim them to be. The first drop has been made on the Chagos Islands and they are still pushing the Thai's for the Kra canal.

[Tanomazu]

1 minute ago, bangkokbonecollector said:

Can't do <deleted> to the world and secret plan to take over the world are very two different comments. Yeah I do realise the CCP's bravado is just to drum up nationalistic support in order to maintain control just like the 'random' investigations into a CCP members finances when they get too big for their boots. The fact remains Taiwan is strategically important and the Americans will want the status quo to remain as is. I never mentioned anything about an invasion did I? I said status quo which is basically internal politics and making sure the pro CCP camp in Taiwanese politics does not get into power. Pointless talking to someone who just makes up what you said in their own mind and runs with it.

 

To be honest I wouldn't be too sure the CCP's ambitions are really as internal as you and others claim them to be. The first drop has been made on the Chagos Islands and they are still pushing the Thai's for the Kra canal.

Yah, Taiwan has great strategic importance. In a world where China and the US go to war. However, neither the US nor China actually want to go to war, see Gen Mark Milley's comments to his Chinese friends.

 

Of course China wants the silk road and the canal, that's just peaceful infrastructure and trade though. You can't extrapolate from that that China wants war. They don't. Too much to lose. Just like the US.

 

Even in Afghanistan, where the US had real strategic interests the US just walked away because the presidents knew that their voters do not want US soldiers to die in Afghanistan. If the US wanted war would their senior general Mark Milley tell his counterparts that the US will not strike China?

[thaibeachlovers]

On 9/21/2021 at 4:59 PM, Eric Loh said:

China don’t have fleets like the US Second, Third, Fifth, Sixth, Seventh and Tenth Fleets active all over the world. Who is doing the bullying? 

Just a matter of time.

The bully I see isn't the US.

[jacko45k]

3 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

What the <deleted> were they thinking they would achieve by staying?

Nation building...

[thaibeachlovers]

2 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Nation building...

I deleted my post because this can only get political, and we can't discuss politics.

[zzaa09]

18 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Just a matter of time.

The bully I see isn't the US.

The U.S. has always been the bully, historically.

Most assuredly, they aren't sainted by any means.

For decades upon decades, the most destructive, disconnected and evil force on the planet. 

[Eric Loh]

2 hours ago, zzaa09 said:

The U.S. has always been the bully, historically.

Most assuredly, they aren't sainted by any means.

For decades upon decades, the most destructive, disconnected and evil force on the planet. 

Extract from op-ed illustrated your point well.

 

“ In a way, thanks to President Joe Biden’s quick reaction to the post-Afghanistan chaos, the region has seen his administration’s true colours – jumping from one debacle to create a new one. The tripartite alliance will change the way the region perceives the US for the rest of 21st century”. 

[The Cipher]

2 hours ago, zzaa09 said:

The U.S. has always been the bully, historically.

Most assuredly, they aren't sainted by any means.

For decades upon decades, the most destructive, disconnected and evil force on the planet. 

(Most) countries don't think in terms of good and evil. And certainly not the great power countries of the world. They think in terms of national interest and then do what it takes to advance those goals.

 

As you've correctly said the US throughout history has certainly been no saint. But they've done a great job at controlling the narrative (Hollywood + ubiquitousness of American news outlets worldwide) and have successfully created an American mythos that a lot of people have bought into.

[BobinBKK]

On 9/21/2021 at 3:30 PM, Mr Meeseeks said:

Thailand was in the middle of two Empirical realms, the Glorious British Raj and French Indochine. 

 

Pure geographical luck. 

Is there anything here that anyone really wants other than, uh, well you know... 555

[BobinBKK]

2 hours ago, The Cipher said:

(Most) countries don't think in terms of good and evil. And certainly not the great power countries of the world. They think in terms of national interest and then do what it takes to advance those goals.

 

As you've correctly said the US throughout history has certainly been no saint. But they've done a great job at controlling the narrative (Hollywood + ubiquitousness of American news outlets worldwide) and have successfully created an American mythos that a lot of people have bought into.

This would be the American governments doing and not it's citizens. If truth be told, the vast majority of American tax payers (including myself) don't support the governments BS around the world. We hate them more than you do!!!

[jacko45k]

Just now, BobinBKK said:

This would be the American governments doing and not it's citizens. If truth be told, the vast majority of American tax payers (including myself) don't support the governments BS around the world. We hate them more than you do!!!

Well please stop voting them in!

[tifino]

On 9/21/2021 at 5:44 PM, madmitch said:

The Thai Government will no doubt see this as justification for increasing their military spending.

or try to jump the queue for some 2nd Hand Collins subs going cheap soon?

[Rimmer]

A troll post has been removed, if you want your post to remain up suggest stop calling the POTUS names

[The Cipher]

18 minutes ago, BobinBKK said:

This would be the American governments doing and not it's citizens. If truth be told, the vast majority of American tax payers (including myself) don't support the governments BS around the world. We hate them more than you do!!!

I don't hate the American government. I don't hate the Chinese government either. They're just playing the game. If they don't play it someone else will, I guess.

 

But you raise a good point that it isn't fair to blame a government's actions on its citizens. The average American isn't responsible for US adventuring in the Middle East any more than the average Chinese person is responsible for China's actions in the South China Sea. And it's important to remember that. For better or worse, most of us are just along for the ride.

[BobinBKK]

1 hour ago, The Cipher said:

I don't hate the American government. I don't hate the Chinese government either. They're just playing the game. If they don't play it someone else will, I guess.

 

But you raise a good point that it isn't fair to blame a government's actions on its citizens. The average American isn't responsible for US adventuring in the Middle East any more than the average Chinese person is responsible for China's actions in the South China Sea. And it's important to remember that. For better or worse, most of us are just along for the ride.

Yes I agree with you 100%  Unfortunately, I see the next major conflict taking place in the South China Sea. These are unwelcome advances by a superior military's force that none of these other countries want. I honestly don't know what the Chinese government is thinking considering the global alliance that's willing to stand up to it's aggressions. And after this Covid-19 debacle, there isn't much love around the world for China at the moment and won't be for many years to come.

[Tanomazu]

7 minutes ago, BobinBKK said:

Yes I agree with you 100%  Unfortunately, I see the next major conflict taking place in the South China Sea. These are unwelcome advances by a superior military's force that none of these other countries want. I honestly don't know what the Chinese government is thinking considering the global alliance that's willing to stand up to it's aggressions. And after this Covid-19 debacle, there isn't much love around the world for China at the moment and won't be for many years to come.

Really? You see major conflict taking place in the South China Sea? Even though the senior US general Mark Milley has bent over sideways, backwards and forwards to assure his Chinese counterparts that the US would not strike China?

 

Even though even Trump has confirmed he never had any intention to strike China?

 

Even though US military have expressly declared they will not fight China on the ground?

 

Even though China is a nuclear military power and a war started by the US would result in the total annihilation of the US and possibly the world?

 

There will no war between China and the US. The threat of China is merely an illusion propagated by the US because the US defense industry wants to make money, because generals need to justify always increasing their budgets.

 

In reality the likelihood of China going to war herself, given all that she has to lose in that case, is zero. A few airstrikes and a submarine embargo and the whole economy would suffer greatly.

[BobinBKK]

36 minutes ago, Tanomazu said:

major conflict

Is not an all out war. You seem to like putting a lot of words in other peoples mouths to "propagate" your own brand of utter nonsense. China nor the US would be fighting a war on each others soil nor would either nation strike each other with nuclear weapons as it would be mutual annihilation. However, there is the "possibility" of other countries taking the war to Chinese soil such as India on the west side and Japan along with Taiwan from the east. Why in Gods name do you think any of these countries of this region would be so willing to roll over?

 

By your line of thinking no-one should have opposed Nazi Germany either.  Right?

[Tanomazu]

1 minute ago, BobinBKK said:

Is not an all out war. You seem to like putting a lot of words in other peoples mouths to "propagate" your own brand of utter nonsense. China nor the US would be fighting a war on each others soil nor would either nation strike each other with nuclear weapons as it would be mutual annihilation. However, there is the "possibility" of other countries taking the war to Chinese soil such as India on the west side and Japan along with Taiwan from the east. Why in Gods name do you think any of these countries of this region would be so willing to roll over?

 

What is "utter nonsense" is to suggest that Japan would declare war on China, or India. Taiwan and Japan will take on China from the east? Lol.

 

So the US would not strike China because it is afraid of China's nuclear arsenal, but Japan would not be? Lol. Nor India. Right, right.

 

You have to laugh.

 

5 minutes ago, BobinBKK said:

By your line of thinking no-one should have opposed Nazi Germany either.  Right?

Germany did not have nuclear missiles. I think you'll find China does. Around 300 of them.

 

So care to revise your geo-political predictions?

 

 

[Eric Loh]

12 minutes ago, BobinBKK said:

Is not an all out war. You seem to like putting a lot of words in other peoples mouths to "propagate" your own brand of utter nonsense. China nor the US would be fighting a war on each others soil nor would either nation strike each other with nuclear weapons as it would be mutual annihilation. However, there is the "possibility" of other countries taking the war to Chinese soil such as India on the west side and Japan along with Taiwan from the east. Why in Gods name do you think any of these countries of this region would be so willing to roll over?

 

By your line of thinking no-one should have opposed Nazi Germany either.  Right?

Let me put you to ease by stating that there is a better possibility of an India and Pakistan war than with China. There is no strategic reason for war between India and China. Border skirmishes will be there but a full scale invasion is simply not plausible as China military capability is twice larger than India which is a massive deterrent. 
 

As for Japan, their constitution forbid external use of force and has a no war clause. 

[NanLaew]

On 9/21/2021 at 4:08 PM, Eric Loh said:

On 9/21/2021 at 4:06 PM, NanLaew said:

China "don’t have fleets like the US Second, Third, Fifth, Sixth, Seventh and Tenth Fleets active all over the world" at the moment.

Yes neither do they have military bases all over the world. 

Oh yes they do.

 

Panto season begins.

[BobinBKK]

On 9/23/2021 at 3:51 PM, Tanomazu said:

What is "utter nonsense" is to suggest that Japan would declare war on China, or India. Taiwan and Japan will take on China from the east? Lol.

 

So the US would not strike China because it is afraid of China's nuclear arsenal, but Japan would not be? Lol. Nor India. Right, right.

 

You have to laugh.

 

Germany did not have nuclear missiles. I think you'll find China does. Around 300 of them.

 

So care to revise your geo-political predictions?

 

 

I always enjoy hearing the thought process of hapless rubes ???? 

[BobinBKK]

On 9/23/2021 at 4:07 PM, Eric Loh said:

As for Japan, their constitution forbid external use of force and has a no war clause.

Forbidden external use of force as far as a first strike is concerned, but do you really think this piece of paper actually means anything during wartime or reginal conflicts? Japan has many defense agreements with neighboring countries with eyes on China, so tactically if Japanese forces are attacked, Japan has the right to defend itself. No single country in that region can't stand alone against China, but a major alliance can.