Thai industry group scales down tourism forecast, says 3 million jobs lost

[webfact]

A man rakes the sand on a beach as Phuket gets ready to open to overseas tourists from July 1 allowing fully vaccinated foreigns to visit the resort island without quarantine, Phuket, Thailand June 29, 2021. REUTERS/Jorge Silva/Files

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Foreign visitors in Thailand are expected at about 280,000 this year, down from half million projected earlier, a private tourism group said on Tuesday, as the country suffers a prolonged coronavirus outbreak.

 

The crucial tourism sector has lost about 3 million jobs during the pandemic, the Tourism Council of Thailand said in a statement.

 

(Reporting by Satawasin Staporncharnchai and Kitiphong Thaichareon; Writing by Orathai Sriring; Editing by Martin Petty)

 

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[aussiexpat]

So 40,000 international arrivals July to September, guess that leaves 240,000 for October to December. 

 

Dropping to 7 days quarantine is not going to increase travellers x 6 needed for that ridiculous number

[JonnyF]

40 Million down to 280,000. And most of those aren't really tourists, just people returning from overseas. That's quite a hit.

 

3 million jobs lost.

 

Lucky that tourism isn't really that important to Thailand ????.

[RotBenz8888]

7 minutes ago, webfact said:

Thailand are expected at about 280,000 this year,

I wonder how many of those are real tourists, not returnees? But of course, they all need hotelrooms... 

[RichardColeman]

11 minutes ago, webfact said:

The crucial tourism sector has lost about 3 million jobs during the pandemic, the Tourism Council of Thailand said in a statement.

And 3 million that don't appear on the unemployment figures

[Bkk Brian]

T.A.T. will be along shortly to double or treble that figure no problem

[timendres]

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

T.A.T. will be along shortly to double or treble that figure no problem

They will likely be adding zeroes.

[smedly]

someone using that calculator again with the sticky buttons

 

unless they dump the sandbox red tape including rip off SHA hotels and tests and all the rest plus open pubs and entertainment - nobody is coming

 

How many times does it need to be repeated before these buffoons get the message

[86Tiger]

 

 

I was one of those "40,000" in July.  Moved family back home after few years in Turkey and I returned Turkey to finish current project.

 

But moving family is only reason I would submit to all the <deleted>.   I will not be back to Thailand until they finish all this craziness of quarantine, COE, etc.

[smedly]

11 minutes ago, aussiexpat said:

So 40,000 international arrivals July to September, guess that leaves 240,000 for October to December. 

not a chance in hell, they are dreaming

 

Phuket has ground to a halt from the start of Sept and they still aren't getting it

[pagallim]

10 minutes ago, smedly said:

not a chance in hell, they are dreaming

 

Phuket has ground to a halt from the start of Sept and they still aren't getting it

Agree there's little chance of those numbers.   However, the situation with Phuket arrivals hasn't changed radically, with an average of some 400 people arriving (internationally) every day, only slightly less than the beginning of July.

[GrandPapillon]

14 minutes ago, smedly said:

not a chance in hell, they are dreaming

 

Phuket has ground to a halt from the start of Sept and they still aren't getting it

Thais are a bit slow on the learning phase ????

[GinBoy2]

42 minutes ago, pagallim said:

Agree there's little chance of those numbers.   However, the situation with Phuket arrivals hasn't changed radically, with an average of some 400 people arriving (internationally) every day, only slightly less than the beginning of July.

And then there is the slight problem of actually getting into Thailand.

 

I work for an airline (Delta) and they don't run like buses, you can't throw in an extra flight like you would a bus.

 

Equipment and crews are planned 12-16 weeks in advance based on projected loads.

 

So look at flight schedules and that's basically the total capacity until the end of the year, which might be the most realistic maximum number of incoming tourists.

 

Damn that seems so simple to figure out!

 

Unless of course we're banking on the overland Chinese market, who are banned from travel until the end of 2022, the Indians, or the overland trekkers from Europe, and the swimmers from the Americas!

[spidermike007]

At least someone is telling the truth. Although I would say if anything the estimate of 3 million jobs is low. And this does not take into account the funds foreign men provide by meeting, falling for, and then building homes, businesses, buying cars, trucks, gold, and countless other things for their new Thai women and their families. It amounts to countless billions of baht annually. Nobody has ever been able to estimate the actual value, as the number is likely too high to estimate! Also, this figure likely does not estimate the number of cash jobs, such as bar girls, massage, escorts, go-go, as well as the food carts, and the hundreds of thousands if not a million vendors or more, who made their livings supporting tourism, and now have little, or nothing. 

 

 

 

 

[pagallim]

4 minutes ago, GinBoy2 said:

And then there is the slight problem of actually getting into Thailand.

 

I work for an airline (Delta) and they don't run like buses, you can't throw in an extra flight like you would a bus.

 

Equipment and crews are planned 12-16 weeks in advance based on projected loads.

 

So look at flight schedules and that's basically the total capacity until the end of the year, which might be the most realistic maximum number of incoming tourists.

 

Damn that seems so simple to figure out!

Indeed, it's going to take some airline announcements re scheduling to make a difference.   Of note, and inspite of Russia's Sputnik V now being on Thailand's approved list, nothing has happened re additional flights winging there way from the soon to be frozen north.

[smedly]

44 minutes ago, pagallim said:

with an average of some 400 people arriving (internationally) every day

really ? that is 8000 a month - I don't think so, the highest figure of some 34k has changed little in 8 weeks  

 

and you got this info from where exactly

 

I have seen the total figure up to end of Aug and the total to middle of Sept and it has changed very little - certainly not 400 a day 

 

Plus they have stopped publishing the numbers recently because they are nothing to brag about 

[GinBoy2]

10 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

At least someone is telling the truth. Although I would say if anything the estimate of 3 million jobs is low. And this does not take into account the funds foreign men provide by meeting, falling for, and then building homes, businesses, buying cars, trucks, gold, and countless other things for their new Thai women and their families. It amounts to countless billions of baht annually. Nobody has ever been able to estimate the actual value, as the number is likely too high to estimate! Also, this figure likely does not estimate the number of cash jobs, such as bar girls, massage, escorts, go-go, as well as the food carts, and the hundreds of thousands if not a million vendors or more, who made their livings supporting tourism, and now have little, or nothing. 

 

 

 

Well that's the problem.

 

So much of Thailand's economy is is the grey sector, trying to figure out the true employment devastation is hard to fathom.

 

For every airline counter agent that has lost their job, there is probably 200 massage/bargirl/food stall worker that is currently back up north on the farm

[zzaa09]

17 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

At least someone is telling the truth. Although I would say if anything the estimate of 3 million jobs is low. And this does not take into account the funds foreign men provide by meeting, falling for, and then building homes, businesses, buying cars, trucks, gold, and countless other things for their new Thai women and their families. It amounts to countless billions of baht annually. Nobody has ever been able to estimate the actual value, as the number is likely too high to estimate! Also, this figure likely does not estimate the number of cash jobs, such as bar girls, massage, escorts, go-go, as well as the food carts, and the hundreds of thousands if not a million vendors or more, who made their livings supporting tourism, and now have little, or nothing. 

 

 

 

 

That's a different aspect of the economy altogether - should have it's own category class.

[Cake Monster]

With this scaling back of Tourist Numbers for the Year to 280 K that is basically saying that from Nov 1st to Year end, each of the proposed 10 sites to be opened up is going to receive 28,000 visitors each over 2 full months.

Phuket has only had 33,000 over 3 Months, and many of those were desperate Individuals that needed to return back to Thailand to see their Families again.

I would like to think that this would be a realistic figure, but somehow, I think its all Pie in the Sky.

Many Business Operators will not be opening for such small numbers, because its cheaper to stay closed than open up, and have all the overheads and outlays for small numbers that will likely not even see the Business break even.

 

[spidermike007]

2 minutes ago, zzaa09 said:

That's a different aspect of the economy altogether - should have it's own category class.

It does have it's own class. And the leaders would likely refer to them as "the uncounted 60%, of the unbathed masses".

[pagallim]

59 minutes ago, smedly said:

really ? that is 8000 a month - I don't think so, the highest figure of some 34k has changed little in 8 weeks  

 

and you got this info from where exactly

 

I have seen the total figure up to end of Aug and the total to middle of Sept and it has changed very little - certainly not 400 a day 

 

Plus they have stopped publishing the numbers recently because they are nothing to brag about 

Actually, the total was 28,000 in early September.   There are a number of sources for daily totals, typically from Facebook news outlets.   Number of first PCR tests undertaken on arrivals is usually a good starter.   Are the numbers low?   Of course they are, but people are still arriving though for reasons and purposes not related strictly to tourism.   

 

Just looked at arriving international flights today, 2 from Singapore, 1 from Dubai, and 1 from Hong Kong.   These flights are not empty.

 

EDIT:   OK, just looking through some things, the Richard Barrow "Thai News Reports" on FB is a reliable source.   This from a couple of days ago:

 

"Update: On 24th September, 438 international travellers arrived on 5 flights bringing the total to 36,330. Since 1st July, 105 Sandboxers (+4) have tested positive. 38 on 1st test, 32 on 2nd test, 11 on 3rd test, and 24 from close contact test".

[zzaa09]

1 minute ago, spidermike007 said:

It does have it's own class. And the leaders would likely refer to them as "the uncounted 60%, of the unbathed masses".

Secretly, these resident and long-term uncounted are desired and preferred by the faux authoritarians and xenophobically created ruling elite regarding positive cycling of the economy. On the surface, contradicting and unfriendly policies certainly conflict any hidden flattery - as the long-term/residency requirements become tighter and more convoluted with each advancing year. 

[martin81]

Tourist arrivals in July 18000 and August 15000 according to Mots.co.th.

 

I guess more than half were to Phuket sandbox.

 

Maybe they will get a little more with sandboxes in BKK and Payyaya in Nov-dec but not 40000 per month with all that redtape.

[smedly]

39 minutes ago, pagallim said:

Actually, the total was 28,000 in early September. 

34,000ish total at start of Sept as I remember and that is it 

 

what exact point are you trying to make ?, sandbos was and still is a flop as massive failure and yet it seems they are intent on rolling it out to other places Nov 1st - that was the point of my previous post which still stands

 

you can argue a couple of hundred numbers here and there and matters not a jot, sandbox failed

[aussiexpat]

For the above posts talking about numbers through the sandbox, TAT publishes this figure every day (currently 37,576 with only 99 arriving today)

 

https://www.tatnews.org/

[pagallim]

5 minutes ago, smedly said:

34,000ish total at start of Sept as I remember and that is it 

 

what exact point are you trying to make ?, sandbos was and still is a flop as massive failure and yet it seems they are intent on rolling it out to other places Nov 1st - that was the point of my previous post which still stands

 

you can argue a couple of hundred numbers here and there and matters not a jot, sandbox failed

Not trying to make any point, and of course the whole 'Sandbox' philosophy was/is grossly overstated.   It's you that is trying to make a point, inferring nobody was using it any more.   I live in Phuket, and probably access more news and information through local sources than most.   For those people, and they constitute the overwhelming majority, who have undertaken it, it's been far more agreeable than the alternative two weeks confinement in a Bangkok hotel room.   For them it hasn't failed.

 

Difficult to see how any form of 'Sandbox' can work unless as in the case of Phuket and Samui, they are islands where access can be strictly controlled.   Bangkok, Pattaya, Hua Hin, how is that going to work?   How are they going to control the anticipated large numbers of people previously returned to their home provinces and now wishing to get back to employment, and likely to have had no vaccine?

 

 

[Gandtee]

3 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

I wonder how many of those are real tourists, not returnees? But of course, they all need hotelrooms... 

For a couple of weeks.

[spidermike007]

1 hour ago, martin81 said:

Tourist arrivals in July 18000 and August 15000 according to Mots.co.th.

 

I guess more than half were to Phuket sandbox.

 

Maybe they will get a little more with sandboxes in BKK and Payyaya in Nov-dec but not 40000 per month with all that redtape.

And likely 80% were returning expats. This entire thing is one huge lie. Tourism here is likely  finished. Infinite sabotage causes untold destruction of a "far less than resilient" industry. 

 

Prayuth, Anutin and Phiphat could go down in Thai history as the guys who cost Thailand a trillion dollars ilor more, in lost income, destroyed a once vital industry, decimated an economy, and caused Thailand to slip to 90th in the world GDP rankings, with long term unemployment and the withdrawal of foreign interest and investments.

 

Only time will tell how enormous the destruction they have caused really is. 

[rebo]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

… as the country suffers a prolonged coronavirus outbreak.

Go back to the root cause:

… as the country suffers a selfish, greedy and incompetent government.  

[spidermike007]

2 hours ago, pagallim said:

Actually, the total was 28,000 in early September.   There are a number of sources for daily totals, typically from Facebook news outlets.   Number of first PCR tests undertaken on arrivals is usually a good starter.   Are the numbers low?   Of course they are, but people are still arriving though for reasons and purposes not related strictly to tourism.   

 

Just looked at arriving international flights today, 2 from Singapore, 1 from Dubai, and 1 from Hong Kong.   These flights are not empty.

 

EDIT:   OK, just looking through some things, the Richard Barrow "Thai News Reports" on FB is a reliable source.   This from a couple of days ago:

 

"Update: On 24th September, 438 international travellers arrived on 5 flights bringing the total to 36,330. Since 1st July, 105 Sandboxers (+4) have tested positive. 38 on 1st test, 32 on 2nd test, 11 on 3rd test, and 24 from close contact test".

And over 9000 Thais and Burmese have tested positive within the Phuket sandbox. Who are the real zombies now? And why the continued restrictions on foreign tourists with their kinds of numbers?