Thai government advised to prepare for financial fallout from China’s ‘Evergrande’ crisis

[Mr Meeseeks]

1 minute ago, hotchilli said:

Sounds like China in general, things are going south fast and little cash flow.

Which is detrimental to the rest of Asia and Africa in particular. 

 

Once it starts to go bad it will be the biggest economic disaster the World has ever seen. 

[vandeventer]

15 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

I thought that a statement was issued a few Days ago, which basically stated Thailand had very little exposure to the Evergrande melt down.

If Korn is sounding a warning, then I doubt this to be the case.

China could be happy about this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bw7nL5gVKEU

 

[CharlieH]

Flame exchange removed.

[BangkokReady]

14 hours ago, timendres said:

The seams are starting to fray, as is inevitable with any communist experiment.

It's really interesting to watch.  Moving away from communism financially in order to try to move out of poverty, but then getting to a point where they feel that this has led to too much influence from the outside world and drifting back to being closed off and isolated, apparently not caring if the economy is wrecked in the process.

[Caldera]

Covid, flooding, now Evergrande... The universe has it in for Thailand this year!

[hotchilli]

29 minutes ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

Which is detrimental to the rest of Asia and Africa in particular. 

 

Once it starts to go bad it will be the biggest economic disaster the World has ever seen. 

If China goes pop can you imagine all the projects worldwide going down the pan.

[Sametboy2019]

2 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

If China goes pop can you imagine all the projects worldwide going down the pan.

Apart from the digital plan????

[Emdog]

15 hours ago, timendres said:

Evergrande is the caricature of a property bubble about to go pear shaped. A power grid so stressed that blackouts are common place now, and even factories are shuttered for days each week. An attack on the tech sector that has caused four companies to lose $250B USD in market value. And now we hear that Xi is selling strategic oil reserves to "stabilize prices" (yeah, nah). The seams are starting to fray, as is inevitable with any communist experiment. Thailand seems to be the kid who always kissed up to the popular kid on the playground, and is about to find itself without any friends.

"The seams are starting to fray, as is inevitable with any communist experiment." Ever see "The big short", the housing bubble collapse in USA? Derivatives tied to <deleted> mortgages sold as AAA?

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1596363

[Nabby]

For anyone saying that the idea of China invading Taiwan is something new or recent, it's embarrassing to read. You obviously don't live in Asia, but are writing from some backwater in Alberta or Perth or Texas and don't get out much. China has been making threats and firing missiles into the Taiwan Strait since the 1990s, and it has been escalating since. Actually, they've been launching missiles at each other in a kind of gentleman's game of war when Mao was in power from Fujian province to Taiwan's Kinmen Island which is visible from the Mainland (and of course vice versa) on a clear day.

This idea is nothing new. Which cave district do you live in?

It's actually very simple, this big, bad, new, mysterious, foreboding, surprising idea: China invading Taiwan. I'll break it down for you: if China could, they would. They can't, so they don't. That's it. That's all there is. 

There are way too many unknowns for China's taste. First, there's the chance that Taiwan might either beat them or hold them off sufficiently. If they US committed just 10% of their forces it is over. The Taiwan Strait becomes the PLA and PLAN watery graveyard. Don't think so, then please explain why they have never even tried to invade Taiwan in all these years.

If anything will see Xi get torn to shreds by his opponents and the millions he has wrong in China, it is failure in a Taiwan debacle. And he fears that as much as Hu Jintao and Jiang Zamin did. Not happening. 

[Pravda]

16 hours ago, Gold Star said:

Chinese tourism in Thailand is a long way off, and perhaps may never come. 

 

China has suspended 98% of passport renewals and applications and revoked many others. As the heavily leveraged property bubble collapses, it will take down a lot of other things with it. New Myanmar border fences have just recently been built with the razor wire facing inwards. Getting money and wealth out of China is very difficult now. Don't count on Chinese investors in the Thai condo market being able keep up their payments.

 

 

Oh well....

 

Thank God Thailand got rid of cheap Charlie tourists and zero dollar tours. Now there will be no one left to rip off....except quality long term expats. 

[khunpa]

1 hour ago, Caldera said:

Covid, flooding, now Evergrande... The universe has it in for Thailand this year!

Don’t worry… soon 1 million rich Indian tourists will come and save the day… ????

 

 

[Eric Loh]

15 hours ago, MRToMRT said:

I can't take anything Korn says seriously after he complained that his kids had to pay for medical treatment in London. Another elite waste of my time who has multiple agendas that I do not have enough money to be capable of understanding.

I don't take him seriously too. His handling of the 1997 financial crisis and fire sale of distressed assets left much to desire. Evergrande debt default will not be systemic crisis nor has contagion events that will spread globally like the Lehman crisis. As IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath commented that China has the tools and policy space to prevent this turning into a systemic crisis. 

 

The foreign exposure in offshore bonds is only 19B USD. Evergrande is not anything like the Lehman crisis which played a major role in global financial fallout in 2008. Evergrande owned assets that they can sell to get some cash flow. Lehman had only financial assets with massive leverage positions. 

 

The China government did the right thing by not bailing out Evergrande and thereby forcing them to liquidate their assets including large tracts of land that they owned. Land is owned mostly by the government and they can stabilize land price and even buy back the land. Unfinished development projects will likely to be taken over by other developers. There is also an rumour that the government may take over and develope state owned housing like in Singapore. 

 

There are still lots on the plate for Evergrande to navigate out of this massive debt problem but Korn's advise is simply not justifiable.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/22/heres-why-the-evergrande-crisis-is-not-chinas-lehman-moment.html

[JonnyF]

With the bans on Chinese travel abroad and the CCP making it much more difficult for citizens to get money out of China (especially for buying offshore property), it does seem that maybe Thailand has been backing the wrong horse. 

 

Such a shame....

[Eric Loh]

55 minutes ago, Nabby said:

For anyone saying that the idea of China invading Taiwan is something new or recent, it's embarrassing to read. You obviously don't live in Asia, but are writing from some backwater in Alberta or Perth or Texas and don't get out much. China has been making threats and firing missiles into the Taiwan Strait since the 1990s, and it has been escalating since. Actually, they've been launching missiles at each other in a kind of gentleman's game of war when Mao was in power from Fujian province to Taiwan's Kinmen Island which is visible from the Mainland (and of course vice versa) on a clear day.

This idea is nothing new. Which cave district do you live in?

It's actually very simple, this big, bad, new, mysterious, foreboding, surprising idea: China invading Taiwan. I'll break it down for you: if China could, they would. They can't, so they don't. That's it. That's all there is. 

There are way too many unknowns for China's taste. First, there's the chance that Taiwan might either beat them or hold them off sufficiently. If they US committed just 10% of their forces it is over. The Taiwan Strait becomes the PLA and PLAN watery graveyard. Don't think so, then please explain why they have never even tried to invade Taiwan in all these years.

If anything will see Xi get torn to shreds by his opponents and the millions he has wrong in China, it is failure in a Taiwan debacle. And he fears that as much as Hu Jintao and Jiang Zamin did. Not happening. 

No mainland Chinese will support a war between their own Chinese people. It will be extremely unpopular war and will be political suicide for the President. Taiwan is split between China friendly citizens and those who want total secession. In a recent July poll, there seem to be a growing support from the public in Taiwan as they see the CPC's governance capability. If KMT win the next election, relationship with China will again be reversed.  

[Nabby]

2 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

No mainland Chinese will support a war between their own Chinese people. It will be extremely unpopular war and will be political suicide for the President. Taiwan is split between China friendly citizens and those who want total secession. In a recent July poll, there seem to be a growing support from the public in Taiwan as they see the CPC's governance capability. If KMT win the next election, relationship with China will again be reversed.  

Wrong. ALL Chinese will support an invasion because they are all brainwashed, just like you. You are very obviously a wumao 50-cent troll. Let me give you some advice: if you're going to lie, try to do so in a way in which people might be believe you; don't lie in such a way that everyone knows you're lying -that just makes you look stupid. The people of Taiwan utterly despite China and the CCP. That's why they voted for the DPP the last two elections. The KMT is a dinosaur brigade that has been humiliated in the past elections, and the best thing for their aging members to do would be to dissolve the party and form something new. You spew misinformation, and it's so obvious. Taiwanese, by and large, hate China, and China hates them. And that's just fine because China is, and always will be, too cowardly to actually attempt an invasion. If they could, they would. Simple as that. 

[timendres]

4 hours ago, Emdog said:

"The seams are starting to fray, as is inevitable with any communist experiment." Ever see "The big short", the housing bubble collapse in USA? Derivatives tied to <deleted> mortgages sold as AAA?

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1596363

Indeed. Free markets and greed is its own volatile mix.

But I will take that any day over the CCP.

[Burma Bill]

20 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

China’s Evergrande crisis.

Well I never!!

 

[NeoDinosaw]

6 hours ago, charmonman said:

Except against Taiwan

Maybe, if China implodes,  Taiwan will liberate China.    Are the KMT still training in northern Thailand ?

[DJ54]

13 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

Sorry, but I didn't hear it here first. A senior CCP minister made a statement a couple of weeks ago saying the 'reunification' of China/Taiwan will happen soon and will be completed much quicker than most people anticipate. 

And I don't think there's much the US or anybody will be able to do about it - sadly

Taiwan has been ratching up their mil-aero ... a former customer before retiring builds

their domestic fighter AC... you’ve gotta love the name (see picture)

[PETERTHEEATER]

21 hours ago, Gold Star said:

New Myanmar border fences have just recently been built with the razor wire facing inwards.

Just how is razorwire positioned to face inwards?

[Gold Star]

35 minutes ago, PETERTHEEATER said:

Just how is razorwire positioned to face inwards?

I get your point (pun intended) that razor wire cuts both ways, however the layers of horizontal rolls of razorwire are positioned on the Chinese side of the fence, as well as the sharpened impalement spikes on the top face inwards towards China. It makes it far more difficult to climb over from China to Burma, than from Burma to China. It is clearly designed to keep people from escaping China.

 

See more examples around the 6:30 mark:

 

[placnx]

7 hours ago, BangkokReady said:

It's really interesting to watch.  Moving away from communism financially in order to try to move out of poverty, but then getting to a point where they feel that this has led to too much influence from the outside world and drifting back to being closed off and isolated, apparently not caring if the economy is wrecked in the process.

Under various guises, the regulatory moves seem to be an effort to suppress or intimidate any possible source of opposition to the ensconcement of the Great Leader next year. The various ill-considered and contradictory moves are perhaps a new manifestation of sowing (possibly) temporary chaos to make opposition to consolidating the power grab impossible. Rather than the sequential unheavals of the Mao era, culminating in the "cultural revolution", the idea here seems to be to implement various strategies at the same time, while the iron is hot from the Covid "success". Xi is a reckless gambler, and that does not bode well for Taiwan.

[placnx]

6 hours ago, Nabby said:

For anyone saying that the idea of China invading Taiwan is something new or recent, it's embarrassing to read. You obviously don't live in Asia, but are writing from some backwater in Alberta or Perth or Texas and don't get out much. China has been making threats and firing missiles into the Taiwan Strait since the 1990s, and it has been escalating since. Actually, they've been launching missiles at each other in a kind of gentleman's game of war when Mao was in power from Fujian province to Taiwan's Kinmen Island which is visible from the Mainland (and of course vice versa) on a clear day.

This idea is nothing new. Which cave district do you live in?

It's actually very simple, this big, bad, new, mysterious, foreboding, surprising idea: China invading Taiwan. I'll break it down for you: if China could, they would. They can't, so they don't. That's it. That's all there is. 

There are way too many unknowns for China's taste. First, there's the chance that Taiwan might either beat them or hold them off sufficiently. If they US committed just 10% of their forces it is over. The Taiwan Strait becomes the PLA and PLAN watery graveyard. Don't think so, then please explain why they have never even tried to invade Taiwan in all these years.

If anything will see Xi get torn to shreds by his opponents and the millions he has wrong in China, it is failure in a Taiwan debacle. And he fears that as much as Hu Jintao and Jiang Zamin did. Not happening. 

The difference between XI and predessors is that he is an inveterate gambler. The fake islands in the South China Sea, missile silos in Xinjiang, supersonic missiles means that the ability of the US to respond is limited. Various military commentators in the last year have stated that China will have the capability in a few years to grab Taiwan. The AUKUS move comes rather late, as far as the submarine element is concerned, since they won't start to arrive for 19 years! 

 

Considering the lack of understanding of economics shown by many recent policies that work as cross-purposes, I doubt that Xi comprehends the economic fallout that would hit China (and the world) if he invaded Taiwan, and his flunkies would not dare to contadict his "wisdom".

[CG1 Blue]

6 hours ago, Nabby said:

For anyone saying that the idea of China invading Taiwan is something new or recent, it's embarrassing to read. You obviously don't live in Asia, but are writing from some backwater in Alberta or Perth or Texas and don't get out much. China has been making threats and firing missiles into the Taiwan Strait since the 1990s, and it has been escalating since.

Who said it was new? I've only seen people saying the invasion is imminent. 

[Nabby]

1 hour ago, CG1 Blue said:

Who said it was new? I've only seen people saying the invasion is imminent. 

The invasion has been imminent for decades. 

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, Nabby said:

The invasion has been imminent for decades. 

But Xi has only recently cemented his power. And under him, China has gotten a lot more aggressive and a lot more jingoistic.

[Dumbfounded]

8 hours ago, Nabby said:

Wrong. ALL Chinese will support an invasion because they are all brainwashed, just like you. You are very obviously a wumao 50-cent troll. Let me give you some advice: if you're going to lie, try to do so in a way in which people might be believe you; don't lie in such a way that everyone knows you're lying -that just makes you look stupid. The people of Taiwan utterly despite China and the CCP. That's why they voted for the DPP the last two elections. The KMT is a dinosaur brigade that has been humiliated in the past elections, and the best thing for their aging members to do would be to dissolve the party and form something new. You spew misinformation, and it's so obvious. Taiwanese, by and large, hate China, and China hates them. And that's just fine because China is, and always will be, too cowardly to actually attempt an invasion. If they could, they would. Simple as that. 

China probably anticipated US intervention before, now they don't. China saw that the US couldn't even beat a bunch of 7th century cave dwellers with kalashnikovs and now they're ramping up. What will the US or NATO do if China does invade? You sound too confident and I would take that bet

[Pravda]

There's another developer in china missing on a 2 billion payment. 

 

This will get funny soon enough

[ericthai]

On 10/4/2021 at 11:34 AM, cheapcanuck said:

They are not the USA. No war will be started.

That's great news! Taiwan will be so happy to hear that.....meanwhile china is creating islands and building bases on them

[The Cipher]

If this thread isn't the world's best example of the Dunning-Kruger effect in action, then I dk. ????