Source: Xinhua | Editor: huaxia

 

BANGKOK, (Xinhua) -- The Siam Commercial Bank (SCB), one of Thailand's biggest commercial banks, expected the country's economy to return to 2019 growth levels in mid-2023 amid improving domestic and international demand.

 

Undermining damages from economic scars, including worsening business dynamics, increasingly fragile labor market conditions as well as deteriorating household and small and medium enterprises' balance sheets, mean that overall recovery of the Southeast Asia's second-largest economy would be gradual, according to a report released by the SCB Economic Intelligence Center.

 

The latest COVID-19 outbreak, which has seen Thailand's total number of infections surge from less than 30,000 in April to more than 1.7 million, has weakened private consumption and restricted international tourist arrivals, even though the government announced plans to ease restrictions on vaccinated travelers.

 

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Full story: http://www.news.cn/english/2021-10/09/c_1310234939.htm

 

-- © Copyright Xinhua 2021-10-11

 

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Think that sounds quite frightening. Either bank know that something bad is out there or they are way out,

 

If Thailand opened fully Jan 1 2022 without restrictions then I would expect 10-15% GDP plus next year due to low covid base line and about the same or 2023.

 

If they are prediction 4-8% growth then they are predicting a very, very slow opening 

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

Think that sounds quite frightening. Either bank know that something bad is out there or they are way out,

 

If Thailand opened fully Jan 1 2022 without restrictions then I would expect 10-15% GDP plus next year due to low covid base line and about the same or 2023.

 

If they are prediction 4-8% growth then they are predicting a very, very slow opening 

There is more then tourism , and Thailand isn't alone . At the moment we are seeing booming gas and electric prices in Europe , triggering inflation . Shortages of chips and all kind of good due to disrupted chains . A huge Chinese company is only alive on a silk thin wire ( im pretty sure Thailand will be hit massive if that company fails ) . There are many things happening all over the world , the hit tourism sector is 1 of them .

Are thees predictions made by the same rose colored glasses wearing people who keep saying that millions of tourists are on the way to Thailand and will spend billions here?...

Seems like an accurate prediction.  Thailand is not the center of the universe, despite what the authorities may think.

They must have employed a fortune teller here. In any case the should get a new one because theyre never right

Seems the banks know something every other country doesnt.  Noone else is predicting 100% back to normal next year.

 

7 hours ago, webfact said:

The Siam Commercial Bank (SCB), one of Thailand's biggest commercial banks, expected the country's economy to return to 2019 growth levels in mid-2023 amid improving domestic and international demand.

 

Much in-line with IMF's outlook for emerging and developing economies except China. 

I may be voicing an unpopular opinion but the coming tourist high season is already down the drain. There is no sensible policy for tourists to plan holidays, which are planned months in advance, tourists reroute elsewhere. Tourism affects a lot of other industries, airlines, real estate to name a couple. In other words, 2022 is already lost on the economy.

So banks are dreaming like TAT.  Maybe by 2023 there will be better conditions in most countries, and some recovery will

have started, but there will be some businesses that have already closed, who will not be reopening ever again.

  I am thinking that 2025 is a better year to hope for as a year that recovery is well on its way and the world will

be in better shape, if some other big disaster does not happen. Being hopeful is a good thing, being deluded is

not so good.  Just saying.

Geezer