Government prepared to handle ‘surge’ in cases

[Bkk Brian]

3 minutes ago, kiwikeith said:

70,80 ,90 not working to well. Israel now has jabbed 4 million with a third booster, was on RNZ national news today.

One thing sticking out like dogs bllks is that the hospital numbers are very low in NZ, only the elderly and those with comorbidities are in Hospital.

Most are recovering at home in self isolation. 

But that is enough to, lockdown the economy , people, jobs, airlines are going to the wall, now New Zealanders in Auckland are doing what the Aussies did, and holding mass protests, people getting jailed for protesting against mandates, that say if you don't get a vaccine certificate no job, no Mc Donald's ,no fly anywhere.

Also in that news report about Israel was that the efficacy of vaccine fades, so that after 6 months you may be as low as 30% or less --- not enough they said so thats why Israel is going for Jab no 3.

 

Now look at the insane vaccine roll out that went for 80%, by the time they get there, those that got jabbed first, have low efficacy are at risk of reinfection, or serious illness and can hurtle through the country and re-infect others.

These are mad times ,I only hope that the madness stops and treatment becomes the norm.

My wife's mother and brother, work in the markets, have never been vaccinated, all they do is drink heaps of ginger tea and take a few vitamin supplements- D being one of them, although I worry about them heaps I can not convince them of taking a vaccine or not, they like to do it their way, and so far so good, but not what I recommend personally to anyone as people make their own choice, unless mandated.

However this is about Thailand and opening with only 2 Provinces at 70% vaccinated.

[kiwikeith]

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

However this is about Thailand and opening with only 2 Provinces at 70% vaccinated.

Exactly what I just said in the post,

[sirineou]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

The government has made plans to handle a surge in cases following the reopening of the country’s border on Monday, a senior doctor told Thai Enquirer.

 

It is reassuring to tell us that they have, but it would be a bit more credible if you told us how.  

[Bkk Brian]

3 minutes ago, kiwikeith said:

Exactly what I just said in the post,

Really I just read NZ and Israel comparisons that have no bearing on Thailand. I will wait for Sweden next I guess

[thaiman]

2 hours ago, Willy Wombat said:

Beware the fully vaccinated foreigner

Better to say:

"Beware the fully vaccinated foreigner who brings covid to a land where covid is already endemic and already spreading out of control"

[MrJ2U]

6 hours ago, daveAustin said:

Why will there be a surge in cases from visitors that are thoroughly tested before and after they fly?

The problem isn't the foreigners.

 

It's going to be the unvaccinated Thai's.

 

Even before this there's a lot of Thais getting COVID-19.

 

Northern and Southern Thailand are seeing thousands everyday.

 

But hey, Thailand's open for business.

I hope the hospitals can keep up.

[aBigSmile]

6 hours ago, daveAustin said:

Why will there be a surge in cases from visitors that are thoroughly tested before and after they fly? There will be some that will not show signs till later on but any surge will likely be from movement of unvaccinated/untested locals and from porous borders. 

It seen it'll never penetrate your skulls. Vaxxd and unvaxxed transmit the disease and get infected just the same. If the vaccine has any advantage it's by reducing symptoms and hospitalizations. The CDC says and so does Boris Johnson. 

[madmitch]

The surge if anything might be caused by Thais arriving from overseas as for some inexplicable reason they are exempt from taking a pre-departure PCR test! Hopefully the airlines won't let them onboard (other than THAI of course!)

[aBigSmile]

46 minutes ago, smedly said:

lets not forget why Thailand is far behind other countries 

 

This government severely messed up their vaccine procurement and are 100% to blame for the mess Thailand is in right now

You'll never let the facts confuse you, won't you? Vaxxed and unvaxxed transmit and get infected just the same. If the vaccine does anything, it's  to reduce symptoms and hospitalizations. 

[aBigSmile]

39 minutes ago, kiwikeith said:

70,80 ,90 not working to well. Israel now has jabbed 4 million with a third booster, was on RNZ national news today.

One thing sticking out like dogs bllks is that the hospital numbers are very low in NZ, only the elderly and those with comorbidities are in Hospital.

Most are recovering at home in self isolation. 

But that is enough to, lockdown the economy , people, jobs, airlines are going to the wall, now New Zealanders in Auckland are doing what the Aussies did, and holding mass protests, people getting jailed for protesting against mandates, that say if you don't get a vaccine certificate no job, no Mc Donald's ,no fly anywhere.

Also in that news report about Israel was that the efficacy of vaccine fades, so that after 6 months you may be as low as 30% or less --- not enough they said so thats why Israel is going for Jab no 3.

 

Now look at the insane vaccine roll out that went for 80%, by the time they get there, those that got jabbed first, have low efficacy are at risk of reinfection, or serious illness and can hurtle through the country and re-infect others.

These are mad times ,I only hope that the madness stops and treatment becomes the norm.

My wife's mother and brother, work in the markets, have never been vaccinated, all they do is drink heaps of ginger tea and take a few vitamin supplements- D being one of them, although I worry about them heaps I can not convince them of taking a vaccine or not, they like to do it their way, and so far so good, but not what I recommend personally to anyone as people make their own choice, unless mandated.

A very sensible stance. However, you won't reach many people here. Their mind is made up: "The vaccines stop transmissions and infections, and facts be damned." 

[sirineou]

4 minutes ago, aBigSmile said:

You'll never let the facts confuse you, won't you? Vaxxed and unvaxxed transmit and get infected just the same

It is funny that you would accuse someone of ignoring the facts while you are doing the same.

"No, Vaccinated People Are Not ‘Just as Likely’ to Spread the Coronavirus as Unvaccinated People "

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/the-vaccinated-arent-just-as-likely-to-spread-covid/620161/

 

"London: Fully vaccinated people can contract and pass on Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 , in household settings, but at lower rates than unvaccinated people, according to a study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal. "

https://www.firstpost.com/health/covid-19-can-be-transmitted-by-fully-vaccinated-people-at-home-shows-lancet-study-10095961.html

 

"Vaccinated people are less likely to spread Covid, new research finds "

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/vaccinated-people-are-less-likely-spread-covid-new-research-finds-n1280583

 

 

[smedly]

15 minutes ago, aBigSmile said:

You'll never let the facts confuse you, won't you? Vaxxed and unvaxxed transmit and get infected just the same. If the vaccine does anything, it's  to reduce symptoms and hospitalizations. 

you are confused, go do some research before posting misleading information, vaccines do help considerably at preventing covid 19 disease and spreading of the virus

[Kadilo]

16 minutes ago, smedly said:

you are confused, go do some research before posting misleading information, vaccines do help considerably at preventing covid 19 disease and spreading of the virus

What misleading information like your opening post?

 

“There we go - as predicted any covid surge over the coming weeks will be blamed on foreign tourists - idiots”

 

When the article clearly said the opposite. 
 

Or does posting misleading information only apply to other people ?

[metisdead]

Some posts using a trolling image and a trolling video have been removed.

[thailand49]

They might have something because under the Thailand Pass rules not much different that the COE the surge I don't think so? I know they are hoping it surge that would be people are just dying to get here?  When they do open up without any restriction that is when it will really come they say they can handle the surge to me T.I.T. means they can't.????

[Kalasin Jo]

Why should there be a surge coming from fully vaccinated and tested twice, on departure and on arrival, before being allowed to move around Thailand?

Presumably should any test positive on arrival they will be locked away until they test negative...and I'd like to know exactly what that means too. They haven't said to my knowledge....and presumably don't want to say for fear of depressing the hoped for numbers of international arrivals.

 

I think this has more to do with attempting to reassure the Thais themselves.

 

As I've said before foreigners arriving are at greater risk from becoming infected by the locals, the vast majority still unvaccinated where I want to go, my home in Thailand. So far only the MiL has been partially vaccinated there. The FiL and my wife and her sister are more afraid of the vaccine than the the disease after MiL felt very unwell after first dose!

 

 

[itsari]

8 hours ago, smedly said:

There we go - as predicted any covid surge over the coming weeks will be blamed on foreign tourists - idiots

You have predicted . 

I sincerely hope your prediction is wrong as if the prediction of yours becomes reality it would become dangerous to set foot out of one's abode .

[RafPinto]

8 hours ago, smedly said:

There we go - as predicted any covid surge over the coming weeks will be blamed on foreign tourists - idiots

But there will be a problem.

Surge in cases but not tourists, hmmm;

It must be the Burmese, for sure....

[soalbundy]

8 hours ago, sammieuk1 said:

Would the preparation be 1m carboard beds and some tents ???? 

and expensive quarantine hotels for foreigners

[sawadee1947]

9 hours ago, webfact said:

government has made plans

Another day, another plan......

Big Yawn......Boring....????????

[Elkski]

We are opening but we know there will be a big surge in cases ( deaths).  But we are ready to sacrifice some of you because the economy is suffering so much and we don't want to spend any more money supporting you.   

Of course there will be a surge.  Workers migrating back to their tourist destinations hoping for some easy money.  Then when they get sick they will go home spreading it more.   It's going to be painful to watch, even from afar. 

In reality it's like there is a war going on and the General orders his troups to the battlefield.  

But I'm pretty convinced the numbers can't go above 19k because they already tested the procedure to limit daily tally of daily cases.   It's absurd to think they have been holding near 8k for weeks. 

The only hope is most tourists are smart enough not to come now. 

[VBF]

3 hours ago, smedly said:

you are confused, go do some research before posting misleading information, vaccines do help considerably at preventing covid 19 disease and spreading of the virus

And in the article quoted in the OP, ( https://www.thaienquirer.com/34522/government-prepared-to-handle-surge-in-cases/) the Doctor goes on to say........

 

“What you will see is the number of cases make spike but hospitalization and deaths will be low like you see in the United Kingdom and France,” he said. “It is a calculated risk but its one the prime minister views as necessary because of the way the economy is going.”

But, IMO, that will only apply to  the areas where Thais ARE vaccinated, which, again taken from the same article are ".....the majority of people in big cities....."

[Used2LuvThailand]

5 hours ago, kiwikeith said:

70,80 ,90 not working to well. Israel now has jabbed 4 million with a third booster, was on RNZ national news today.

One thing sticking out like dogs bllks is that the hospital numbers are very low in NZ, only the elderly and those with comorbidities are in Hospital.

Most are recovering at home in self isolation. 

But that is enough to, lockdown the economy , people, jobs, airlines are going to the wall, now New Zealanders in Auckland are doing what the Aussies did, and holding mass protests, people getting jailed for protesting against mandates, that say if you don't get a vaccine certificate no job, no Mc Donald's ,no fly anywhere.

Also in that news report about Israel was that the efficacy of vaccine fades, so that after 6 months you may be as low as 30% or less --- not enough they said so thats why Israel is going for Jab no 3.

 

Now look at the insane vaccine roll out that went for 80%, by the time they get there, those that got jabbed first, have low efficacy are at risk of reinfection, or serious illness and can hurtle through the country and re-infect others.

These are mad times ,I only hope that the madness stops and treatment becomes the norm.

My wife's mother and brother, work in the markets, have never been vaccinated, all they do is drink heaps of ginger tea and take a few vitamin supplements- D being one of them, although I worry about them heaps I can not convince them of taking a vaccine or not, they like to do it their way, and so far so good, but not what I recommend personally to anyone as people make their own choice, unless mandated.

Debating Covid and the pandemic with the Covid people is like arguing with a Christian evangelical about whether or not Jesus answers your prayers....pointless.  Theirs is a faith and a liturgy to be followed at any and all costs, regardless of the actual outcomes.

[brucec64]

5 hours ago, kiwikeith said:

I'm not confused, it's not about foreign tourists spreading covid, it's about what has happened in Israel and Singapore and may happen in Thailand, not because of tourists, but because people might think that all is ok now, and through caution to the wind.

I agree - and also just a general increase in social interactions within the tourist industry because of higher traffic. In theory, having 70-80% vax rate allows for more cases to be absorbed without overtaxing the health system. Unfortunately, Thailand won't be there until the end of the year, so they are walking a tightrope between fully re-opening and keeping covid under control. That's why they are pushing the entertainment opening until next month. This month is just a ramp-up and I don't think there is any expectation of high tourist levels this month in any levels of the government.

[mtraveler]

7 hours ago, Kadilo said:

And so is your opening post:

 

“There we go - as predicted any covid surge over the coming weeks will be blamed on foreign tourists -idiots”

 

When was is said was In the article is:

 

“Travelers entering the kingdom will be able to travel freely after a negative result from a PCR test. The move, the government admits, will likely see a surge in new cases.

“The surge wont come from the arriving tourists but the service industry that supports them and from the behavior of locals,” a senior doctor at Siriraj told Thai Enquirer.”

 

 

 

 

 

I think there's a nuanced explanation.  It's hard to pin the blame on either the tourists or the locals.  The fact is that opening up the country starts a snowball effect.  Tourists coming means service people will start mobilizing to begin doing business.  It's not important whether it is Covid emanating from tourists (foreigners) or from local Thai.  It is the fact that the country opens up to tourism that opens this Pandora's box.  Once the doors open, the locals will be looking for money from tourism.  And whether it's Covid from foreigners (which I think more unlikely) or it's Covid from Thai people, it doesn't matter.  The numbers will go up, because more people are interacting with each other.  

 

The point is that foreign tourists CAUSE the spread of Covid because their coming here causes the locals to increase their activities.  So, in net effect, it IS the foreigners that are the cause.  They're not the ones spreading the disease, but they are the ones causing the situation that leads to the spread of the disease.  If they would all just wait until vaccination rates are higher, it will be better.  

 

It's why I've been saying that it's still a bit too soon to reopen, with the country on average vaccinated at under 45%, when it needs to be at 70% or higher.  

[retayl]

As evidenced in other better vaccinated countries the surge will come from the reopening of schools. The presence of vaccinated & tested faring tourists will have a marginal effect but will receive the bulk of the blame.

[Cabradelmar]

It seems that the Thai government is admitting that opening the boarder will indeed lead in a surge of cases; as a result of unvaccinated Thais coming out in greater numbers, no doubt. It won't be because of a trickle of vaccinated tourist (although they will be vilified). This is sad in that this could have been mitigation with proper vaccine rollout (would have been wise to delay opening until 1 December to allow for the 70% vaccinated goal to be met). Pity the Thais who will be impacted by the coming surge.

[IAMHERE]

What's the latest on 'respirators' ?  Isn't that what was in such short supply fifteen months ago or so?

 

[Chad3000]

This has been the government's fear all along. 30 % vax rate largely in Bangkok and outside substandard vaccine.

 

The vaccine efficacy is pretty much a fail.

 

When farang start mixing with unvaxed Thai and those vaxed months ago with Sinovac then go blasting around the country - that's a problem. We all know those < 10k covid numbers are magic.

[Chad3000]

On 11/2/2021 at 2:54 AM, retayl said:

marginal effect

Only bc of their stupid policies. Drop the idiocy and double, triple the numbers.

 

Still low by standards but covid has damaged savings and economies.