Serious concern’ as South Africa detects new coronavirus variant--Omicron

[Danderman123]

2 hours ago, Bluetongue said:

Very interesting, thanks. On WHO figures there was a 728% increase in SA infections week ending 28 Nov, after they roughly doubled the week before. The death rate also roughly doubled last week. So hospitalisations increased by 400% over the month, both figures are in the same ball park, given that it must take time from becoming infected to being ill enough to go to Hospital. So next weeks figures will be much awaited.

 

While I was there I looked at Botswana figures which look a bit rubbery but you can get the trend. They spiked massively a month ago but have gone down since.

I am trying to be an optimist here, and I don't see fatality data that worries me - yet. 

[atpeace]

13 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Healthy people are being killed by this virus. Stunning you're not aware of this.

 

What's a simple alternative?

Show me the  data (not one article or one study) that even a small percentage(>20%) dying are healthy. BTW, I know healthy people are dying and like the other poster above, you are creating arguments and then shoot them down. It is your argument - strange...

 

We can have a discussion or we can keep doing what we are both doing and I find it tiresome.  What about my believes  are wrong in regards to Covid,  racism...?  Very good possibility - at least 50% of them are off base considering I don't consider myself flawless.  I think you would be amazed in my ability to alter my stance.  I'm not an independent, democrat, Trumpist, fake news follower which you have labeled others that disagree.  I do what I think is right and try to empathize.  Is that a bad approach?

 

Anyhow, I have had too much fun today and time to for some non-virtual time with the GF - ✌ 

[Jeffr2]

35 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I am trying to be an optimist here, and I don't see fatality data that worries me - yet. 

Deaths tend to lag by a few weeks.

[Jeffr2]

36 minutes ago, atpeace said:

Show me the  data (not one article or one study) that even a small percentage(>20%) dying are healthy. BTW, I know healthy people are dying and like the other poster above, you are creating arguments and then shoot them down. It is your argument - strange...

 

We can have a discussion or we can keep doing what we are both doing and I find it tiresome.  What about my believes  are wrong in regards to Covid,  racism...?  Very good possibility - at least 50% of them are off base considering I don't consider myself flawless.  I think you would be amazed in my ability to alter my stance.  I'm not an independent, democrat, Trumpist, fake news follower which you have labeled others that disagree.  I do what I think is right and try to empathize.  Is that a bad approach?

 

Anyhow, I have had too much fun today and time to for some non-virtual time with the GF - ✌ 

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/hong-kong-expands-travel-curbs-omicron-fears-australia-reports-5-cases-2021-11-30/

 

Moderna CEO warns COVID-19 shots less effective against Omicron, spooks markets

[cyril sneer]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

You really don't want to give the virus the opportunity to evolve into a more efficient killing machine

depends really

[rabas]

1 hour ago, Jeffr2 said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/hong-kong-expands-travel-curbs-omicron-fears-australia-reports-5-cases-2021-11-30/

 

Moderna CEO warns COVID-19 shots less effective against Omicron, spooks markets

"all the scientists I've talked to . . . are like 'this is not going to be good'," Bancel said." (Moderna's CEO)

 

A quick look at what scientists are seeing, which is unprecedented (for better or for worse).

 

1. Graph comparing unique mutations as SARS-2 progresses from Alpha through Delta to Omicron. In numbers, n=4, 6, 8, 10, 26.  From Alpha through Delta, this generally resulted in higher transmission and moderately higher severity.  [ref] Note: images can be zoomed.

 

 

2. Delta vs Omicron showing mutation locations. The top, central orange area is the critical active binding region.

 

 

3. An initial look at Omicron's evolution relative to other variants.  The 'rooting' line from Omicron to the origin has no meaning. One question is probably, how did this even happen?  (based on data from https://covariants.org/variants/21K.Omicron)

 

 

 

Edited November 30, 2021 by rabas

[Jeffr2]

As Moderna's scientists said. This isn't good.

[Virt]

Seems like the Omicron variant were present in Netherlands before the infamous plane arrived from South Africa.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/nov/30/covid-news-live-who-warns-omicron-poses-very-high-risk-new-variant-detected-in-at-least-a-dozen-countries?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-61a5ff098f087c6028247e84#block-61a5ff098f087c6028247e84

 

"Omicron variant was already in Netherlands prior to flights known to have carried cases"

[mommysboy]

We all have opinions about this variant; they are no more than that really.

 

For my tuppence, it's going to be much the same as the previous variants in terms of transmission and severity of symptoms, and the vaccines won't work half as well.  Crucially though, I do think they will continue to provide effective protection against hospitalization and death.  So my strategy will be to get a booster after 3-4 months of my last jab, and I'll likely look for another type of vaccine, so as to get as much of a spread of T and B cell protection as possible.

 

I would also urge people to get as fit and slim as possible.

 

Oddly enough, the best Christmas present I could wish for myself and other vaccinated people is to get a mild case of covid- because of the additional natural immunity we will acquire, again in terms of T and B cells.

 

 

[Jeffr2]

3 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

We all have opinions about this variant; they are no more than that really.

 

For my tuppence, it's going to be much the same as the previous variants in terms of transmission and severity of symptoms, and the vaccines won't work half as well.  Crucially though, I do think they will continue to provide effective protection against hospitalization and death.  So my strategy will be to get a booster after 3-4 months of my last jab, and I'll likely look for another type of vaccine, so as to get as much of a spread of T and B cell protection as possible.

 

I would also urge people to get as fit and slim as possible.

 

Oddly enough, the best Christmas present I could wish for myself and other vaccinated people is to get a mild case of covid- because of the additional natural immunity we will acquire, again in terms of T and B cells.

 

 

Good luck getting a mild case. Several of my friends are suffering a year after their "mild" case. Lack of smell and taste. Or a lingering cough. I'd prefer to avoid this.

[mommysboy]

30 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Good luck getting a mild case. Several of my friends are suffering a year after their "mild" case. Lack of smell and taste. Or a lingering cough. I'd prefer to avoid this.

Yes, I did say mild in all honesty. It is a fact that the most indeed are asymptomatic or mild.

 

Of course nobody wants a brush, but is this a reasonable expectation over the course of a year or so assuming we want a normal life?

 

Can I ask...Were your friends double jabbed before they got it?

 

The point I'm making is that any reasonably healthy person who is up to date with his jabs should be able to ride out the current variants.  It's just one of those risks we now have to take in life, as we do with many diseases such as dengue fever.

[Scott]

2 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Yes, I did say mild in all honesty. It is a fact that the most indeed are asymptomatic or mild.

 

Of course nobody wants a brush, but is this a reasonable expectation over the course of a year or so assuming we want a normal life?

 

Can I ask...Were your friends double jabbed before they got it?

 

The point I'm making is that any reasonably healthy person who is up to date with his jabs should be able to ride out the current variants.  It's just one of those risks we now have to take in life, as we do with many diseases such as dengue fever.

I think that is risky for a number of reasons.  First, are you in a position to quarantine from the time of exposure until you are clear so that you don't infect anyone else?

 

Second, are you in overall good to excellent health?  Any condition, whether known or not, could complicate your recovery.   In particular, is your weight under control?  The heavier you are, the harder it is to breathe and that's where a lot of people end up hospitalized.

Are you in a position to be able to miss work should you have problems related to heart and other organs that are sometimes affected?  

 

Finally, is your health insurance sufficient enough in case the odds of it being mild don't go in your favor?   And is your life insurance up-to-date and sufficient to care for your family should things really go tits-up.

 

Natural immunity combined with a vaccine is probably about the best one can do, but there are definite risks.  

 

 

[Virt]

The experts are all over the dartboard. Some are doomsayers and some say this is the best that could possibly happen if it is highly transmissible to be able to push delta out of the way but also cause a mild case of covid.

 

Time will tell.

[mommysboy]

2 hours ago, Scott said:

I think that is risky for a number of reasons.  First, are you in a position to quarantine from the time of exposure until you are clear so that you don't infect anyone else?

 

Second, are you in overall good to excellent health?  Any condition, whether known or not, could complicate your recovery.   In particular, is your weight under control?  The heavier you are, the harder it is to breathe and that's where a lot of people end up hospitalized.

Are you in a position to be able to miss work should you have problems related to heart and other organs that are sometimes affected?  

 

Finally, is your health insurance sufficient enough in case the odds of it being mild don't go in your favor?   And is your life insurance up-to-date and sufficient to care for your family should things really go tits-up.

 

Natural immunity combined with a vaccine is probably about the best one can do, but there are definite risks.  

 

 

We have to live a normal life at some point though. I think perspective is required at this point- now we've been vaccinated.

 

Mind you that could all change depending on this latest variant.

 

Don't get me wrong- I'm not about to go bug chasing.

[Credo]

17 hours ago, atpeace said:

Huh? De-populating the cities.  Is that really the best option you can come up with?  

 

As for the unhealthy, maybe promoting good health since this virus isn't going away anytime soon.  Also, staying away from crowds might not be a bad idea if you are a magnet for viruses and lack the ability  to overcome them because of poor health.

 

Its odd how people are so bent on supporting their group, they can't see simple alternatives to just promoting one idea.

I am not suggesting anything.  You are.  If the main area with Covid are cities, what do you suggest?  Not letting people leave cities?  It's either that or depopulating them.   

Advocating for good health?  Well, for many people it's not exactly a quick fix and some others it's not possible.  If you have diabetes or a number of other conditions, it has nothing to do with 'advocating for good health'.   So other than eating well and going to the gym (which is a very high risk area for Covid), please enlighten us.  

 

 

[Jeffr2]

10 hours ago, mommysboy said:

Yes, I did say mild in all honesty. It is a fact that the most indeed are asymptomatic or mild.

 

Of course nobody wants a brush, but is this a reasonable expectation over the course of a year or so assuming we want a normal life?

 

Can I ask...Were your friends double jabbed before they got it?

 

The point I'm making is that any reasonably healthy person who is up to date with his jabs should be able to ride out the current variants.  It's just one of those risks we now have to take in life, as we do with many diseases such as dengue fever.

One was double jabbed.  But, couldn't stay out of the clubs!  She got covid, mild, but had rough coughs for a very long time.

 

Another wasn't jabbed, but a very mild case, and one year later is still coughing.  He's on some very hard drugs that he says wipes him out.

 

I'd rather not get covid! LOL.  But yes, we have to live our lives.

[Scott]

I hope we can get some answers sooner rather than later about Omicron.  I am wondering:

 

1.  If it is more transmissible than Delta and it appears that it is.

2.  How effective are vaccines against it?

3.  How severe are breakthrough cases?

4.  Have people with natural immunity from previous infections with other variants showing any level of immunity?

 

I hope we don't have to watch this tear through populations like Delta.

 

[Jeffr2]

This is a great article to read:

https://www.nytimes.com/article/omicron-coronavirus-variant.html

 

Or this one if the above is behind a pay wall.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/30/health/omicron-variant-weeks-research/index.html

 

Both say it's going to take weeks to know what's going on.  MSM at it's best.

[placeholder]

COVID: First signs that vaccine protects against Omicron – health minister

So far, Israel has registered four cases infected with the new variant, while general morbidity remains low.

There are indications that individuals fully vaccinated against corona within six months or with the booster are also protected against the Omicron variant, Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz said on Tuesday, after another two cases were identified, bringing the total to four.

“In the coming days we will have more accurate information about the efficacy of the vaccine against Omicron, but there is already room for optimism, and there are initial indications that those who are vaccinated with a vaccine still valid or with a booster will also be protected from this variant,” Horowitz said while visiting the Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba with Finance Minister Avigdor Liberman.

https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/covid-1st-data-about-vaccine-efficacy-against-omicron-expected-tuesday-687392

Edited December 1, 2021 by placeholder

[Jeffr2]

8 minutes ago, placeholder said:

COVID: First signs that vaccine protects against Omicron – health minister

There are indications that individuals fully vaccinated against corona within six months or with the booster are also protected against the Omicron variant, Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz said on Tuesday, after another two cases were identified, bringing the total to four.

“In the coming days we will have more accurate information about the efficacy of the vaccine against Omicron, but there is already room for optimism, and there are initial indications that those who are vaccinated with a vaccine still valid or with a booster will also be protected from this variant,” Horowitz said while visiting the Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba with Finance Minister Avigdor Liberman.

https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/covid-1st-data-about-vaccine-efficacy-against-omicron-expected-tuesday-687392

Maybe a bit premature?  From that article:

Head of Public Health Services Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis said the first data about the efficacy of the corona vaccines against Omicron were expected to be shared with Israel by South Africa on Tuesday. However, the ministry had not yet received the information as of press time.

[Danderman123]

Deaths and new cases are spiking up in South Africa, 21 and 4,000+ respectively.

 

If Moderna is not so effective against Omicron, perhaps mixing vaccines might be a better approach.

[Danderman123]

55 minutes ago, placeholder said:

COVID: First signs that vaccine protects against Omicron – health minister

So far, Israel has registered four cases infected with the new variant, while general morbidity remains low.

There are indications that individuals fully vaccinated against corona within six months or with the booster are also protected against the Omicron variant, Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz said on Tuesday, after another two cases were identified, bringing the total to four.

“In the coming days we will have more accurate information about the efficacy of the vaccine against Omicron, but there is already room for optimism, and there are initial indications that those who are vaccinated with a vaccine still valid or with a booster will also be protected from this variant,” Horowitz said while visiting the Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba with Finance Minister Avigdor Liberman.

https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/covid-1st-data-about-vaccine-efficacy-against-omicron-expected-tuesday-687392

A sample size of four is pretty worthless.

[placeholder]

12 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

A sample size of four is pretty worthless.

The sample size isn't 4. The sample size is the number of vaccinated people who were tested for the variant.

Edited December 1, 2021 by placeholder

[Jeffr2]

2 minutes ago, placeholder said:

The sample size isn't 4. The sample size is the number of people who were tested for the variant.

Not so sure....from that article:

So far, Israel has registered four cases infected with the new variant, while general morbidity remains low.

.

There are indications that individuals fully vaccinated against corona within six months or with the booster are also protected against the Omicron variant, Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz said on Tuesday, after another two cases were identified, bringing the total to four.

[Jeffr2]

 

 

[rabas]

2 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Others back his numbers. Note: when using log a scale, a straight line indicates exponential grown whose slope is proportional to R0. This lets you read doubling times from a graph. 

 

Dr Malgorzata Gasperowicz compares log graphs for SA-Omicron with current Delta rises in Portugal and Spain to get doubling times:

South Africa: 3-4 days.

Spain & Portugal: 12-14 days

 

 

I made a similar comparison of SA-Omicron with SA-Delta in the June outbreak that shows a 3.4x increase in rate.  The two graphs combined remove seasonal and regional influences. Slope = box height/width.

 

Edited December 1, 2021 by rabas

[Jeffr2]

I don't want to be doom and gloom, but it's not looking good.

[Danderman123]

Let me be a bit optimistic for a moment. 

 

We have all forgotten the research showing that people with Neanderthal heritage have genes that are both helpful in fighting Covid, but also some genes that are not helpful. 

 

The two most important points here is that Neanderthal genetic heritage impacts response to Covid infection, and, most importantly, people in South Africa mostly have zero Neanderthal heritage. So..... The virus mutated in people lacking Neanderthal DNA. 

 

That could mean that the hospitalization data in South Africa may not be relevant outside Sub-Saharan Africa. 

[onthedarkside]

A post linking to a non-credible, questionable source website has been removed.

 

[Scott]

On 11/30/2021 at 10:45 PM, Danderman123 said:

Let me be a bit optimistic for a moment. 

 

We have all forgotten the research showing that people with Neanderthal heritage have genes that are both helpful in fighting Covid, but also some genes that are not helpful. 

 

The two most important points here is that Neanderthal genetic heritage impacts response to Covid infection, and, most importantly, people in South Africa mostly have zero Neanderthal heritage. So..... The virus mutated in people lacking Neanderthal DNA. 

 

That could mean that the hospitalization data in South Africa may not be relevant outside Sub-Saharan Africa. 

The link you shared some time back was intriguing.  I used it and the information in it, to help a covid-minimizing relative understand a little how all this works and how because something doesn't happen in one place doesn't mean it won't happen in another. 

 

I think one of the big takeaways from the SARS epidemic is that for one reason or another people of Asian descent were at greater risk of infection.