Omicron may become dominant variant with its high transmissibility – Dr. Yong Poovorawan

[Danderman123]

On 12/4/2021 at 5:44 AM, Sanookmike said:

 

 

Same goes for you guys and apparently you can't read either...

 

I said it's "random but generally".. it can go the other way and become more deadly but what I said was correct. Scientists expect covid to disappear eventually just like the sars outbreak we had.

So, what was the point of your post telling us we were stupid not to understand that viruses get weaker over time? 

[Danderman123]

2 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

This is frightening.  Look at the crazy increase in high care and ICU admissions.  Not good.

 

There are still few reports on the severity of Omicron cases. I have the impression that people are hospitalized for observation or treatment of mild symptoms. 

[Jeffr2]

22 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

There are still few reports on the severity of Omicron cases. I have the impression that people are hospitalized for observation or treatment of mild symptoms. 

If in the ICU, it's serious. Which is the case now.

[placnx]

5 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

This is frightening.  Look at the crazy increase in high care and ICU admissions.  Not good.

 

This interview of Eric Feigl-Ding (Federation of American Scientists) from Friday, 26 November, is still relevant and worth spending 30 minutes to watch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1ejs9zsZ8I

 

[placnx]

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

There are still few reports on the severity of Omicron cases. I have the impression that people are hospitalized for observation or treatment of mild symptoms. 

Feigl-Ding is a kind of information hub for epidemiology, so he quite up-to-date on Covid developments.

[Bkk Brian]

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

There are still few reports on the severity of Omicron cases. I have the impression that people are hospitalized for observation or treatment of mild symptoms. 

Although in the epicenter of Gauteng, ICU admissions have gone from 55 on the 26th Nov to 120 on the 4th Dec

[Danderman123]

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Although in the epicenter of Gauteng, ICU admissions have gone from 55 on the 26th Nov to 120 on the 4th Dec

Data is still very sparse, so there is a temptation to extrapolate from what information we do have.

 

it is possible that the increase in ICU cases is related to Delta, and not Omicron.

[Bkk Brian]

10 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Data is still very sparse, so there is a temptation to extrapolate from what information we do have.

 

it is possible that the increase in ICU cases is related to Delta, and not Omicron.

Well that is one data point that I quoted. Its also been said that Omicron is the dominant variant there so while delta may still be present it will be in small numbers considering the delta wave receded weeks ago there.

[Jeffr2]

17 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Data is still very sparse, so there is a temptation to extrapolate from what information we do have.

 

it is possible that the increase in ICU cases is related to Delta, and not Omicron.

75% of all new cases now are Omicron.

[Macrohistory]

This is an excellent Twitter thread on such matters, but you have to follow it all the way through to the end

 

 

 

 

[Danderman123]

17 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

75% of all new cases now are Omicron.

But, it’s possible that ICUs are filling up with the 25%.

 

We need to be careful with the data.

[Bkk Brian]

33 minutes ago, Macrohistory said:

This is an excellent Twitter thread on such matters, but you have to follow it all the way through to the end

 

 

 

 

Interesting indeed, a small sample but some positive vibes filtering through from it.

[Chelseafan]

On 12/1/2021 at 11:56 AM, dinsdale said:

I said before this may be a good thing. Delta became dominant over Beta and Beta has disappeared. Omicron (which should have been named Xi) becomes dominant aver Delta and hopefully Delta dissapears. Again hopefully Xi Omicron is mild and this thing might fizzle out. Of course Omicron might mutate later into a more deadly strain albeit less transmissable. Let's hope for the former.

Given there's only 24 letters in the Greek alphabet, we only have 19 variants to go and then we're done with Covid ????

 

[Chelseafan]

On 12/1/2021 at 2:21 PM, RichardColeman said:

So as far as we know, nobody has died of this variant as yet - seems even the 61 on the plane to europe were so mild they did not know they had it - but we are shutting borders, stopping flights, closing businesses structures, imposing masks, adding more travel tests. etc.

 

It's nuts.

 

Way it's going someone will sneeze soon and the stock markets will fall 5%

I agree but the (UK) Government have to be seen doing something. With limited data at the moment, I think the decision of reintroducing masks is a prudent one. What if Omicron turns out to be more deadly and the Government did nothing.

There has to be a sensible balance until we have all the facts.

 

[Chelseafan]

On 12/1/2021 at 11:44 PM, phukettrader said:

Good. So far this Omicron variant has been shown to be very mild with little or no symptoms and nobody is getting seriously ill or dying. Now please let us get back to normal and leave us alone.

 

If memory serves me right, the original variant was discovered around November 2019 and it took until December before sciencetists discovered how deadly it was. Let's get ALL the data in before we look to relax the restrictions.

 

I am getting sick to the teeth when the BBC continually announces how many people are being infected. The true figures to worry about are those that are dying. - around 150 a day and I'm not sure all those deaths are due to Covid either. To put it in perspective, over 600 people a day die from cancer

 

 

 

[Macrohistory]

9 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Interesting indeed, a small sample but some positive vibes filtering through from it.

 

Indeed:  It suggests that Omicron will surely sicken people who've been vaccinated or who have had another variant before, but it will be less likely than Delta to cause such people serious disease.

 

On the other hand, Omicron may be just as likely as Delta to seriously sicken the unvaccinated and people who've never had another variant before.  It is not, in other words, likely to be intrinsically less pathogenic.  That will almost certainly prove to have been a pipe dream.

 

Moreover, because Omicron spreads so much faster than even Delta, it will quickly infect huge swathes of the global population.  Even if the percentage of people who become seriously ill is lower with Omicron -- because so many are now vaccinated or else have had another variant of Covid before -- the absolute numbers of those needing hospital care, including ICU care, is likely to soar in the coming couple of months.  This will put enormous pressure on health care systems, especially in countries or regions of countries that are relatively under-vaxxed.

 

Hard to know how Thailand will fare in such a scenario.  With social distancing now a thing of the past, Omicron is likely to spread like wildfire.  Thailand needs to continue vaccinating like crazy, taking care of all those who haven't been vaxxed at all yet and moving rapidly forward with boosters.

 

[Kadilo]

1 hour ago, Chelseafan said:

 

If memory serves me right, the original variant was discovered around November 2019 and it took until December before sciencetists discovered how deadly it was. Let's get ALL the data in before we look to relax the restrictions.

 

I am getting sick to the teeth when the BBC continually announces how many people are being infected. The true figures to worry about are those that are dying. - around 150 a day and I'm not sure all those deaths are due to Covid either. To put it in perspective, over 600 people a day die from cancer

 

 

 

Perspective is a word that many do not like to use as it highlights the other real underlining  issues that are happening such as cancer patients backlogs, suicides and mental health issues etc. 

Edited December 5, 2021 by Kadilo

[Bkk Brian]

18 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

Perspective is a word that many do not like to use as it highlights the other real underlining  issues that are happening sick as cancer patients, suicides and mental health. 

Pretty sure this is about covid that has a vaccine that works very well to stop deaths.

[Danderman123]

9 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

If in the ICU, it's serious. Which is the case now.

The data is still ratty. It may be the case that people in the ICU for non-Covid illnesses are catching Covid.

[RichardColeman]

3 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

I am getting sick to the teeth when the BBC continually announces how many people are being infected. The true figures to worry about are those that are dying. - around 150 a day and I'm not sure all those deaths are due to Covid either. To put it in perspective, over 600 people a day die from cancer

indeed. As it currently stands - by the WHO's own data - you are more likely to die of being struck by lightning than this variant, yet they are making travel near impossible again for tourist.

[ozimoron]

8 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

indeed. As it currently stands - by the WHO's own data - you are more likely to die of being struck by lightning than this variant, yet they are making travel near impossible again for tourist.

That hasn't been established by any reasonable standard as yet. We all hope that it will pan out that way.

[Macrohistory]

5 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

75% of all new cases now are Omicron.

 

No longer are 25% of South African SARS-CoV-2 cases caused by Delta.  An overwhelming majority are now caused by the rapidly-spreading Omicron.  Attached graph is from here:

 

https://twitter.com/TWenseleers

[Sanookmike]

11 minutes ago, Macrohistory said:

 

No longer are 25% of South African SARS-CoV-2 cases caused by Delta.  An overwhelming majority are now caused by the rapidly-spreading Omicron.  Attached graph is from here:

 

https://twitter.com/TWenseleers

Yes if you watch what I posted it has very low hospitaliaztion's, Dr Campbell isn't a conspiracy theorists or virus denier. Its looking good for a fast and wide spread herd immunity.  

Edited December 5, 2021 by Sanookmike

[ozimoron]

1 minute ago, Sanookmike said:

Yes if you watch what I posted it has very low hospitaliaztion's, Dr Campbell isn't a conspiracy theorists or virus denier. It looking good for a fast and wide spread herd immunity.  

A couple of people have pointed out some salient facts here. Firstly, the response to any form of covid is typically mild or asymptomatic anyway. There are children being hospitalised and their reaction has previously been mild to non existent. The numbers are yet small and the average time to death is around 10 to 14 days. I'm not disputing that omicron may be a milder form than delta but it's a bit soon to be declaring victory.

[Macrohistory]

5 minutes ago, Sanookmike said:

Yes if you watch what I posted it has very low hospitaliaztion's, Dr Campbell isn't a conspiracy theorists or virus denier. Its looking good for a fast and wide spread herd immunity.  

 

I wish that were true, but please consult the attached graphs -- especially the one on the far right  -- for the actual situation.  Graphs come from here:

 

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch

 

 

[Sanookmike]

1 minute ago, Macrohistory said:

 

I wish that were true, but please consult the attached graphs -- especially the one on the far right  -- for the actual situation.  Graphs come from here:

 

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch

 

 

High cases and high infection rate is not being debated...

[ozimoron]

Ntsakisi Maluleke, a public health specialist in the Gauteng province that includes Tshwane and the biggest city Johannesburg, told Reuters that out of the 1,511 COVID-positive patients in hospitals in the province 113 were under 9 years old, a greater proportion than during previous waves of infection.

"We are comforted by clinicians' reports that the children have mild disease,"

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/safrican-official-says-number-children-sick-with-covid-19-is-not-cause-panic-2021-12-04/

[Macrohistory]

7 minutes ago, Sanookmike said:

High cases and high infection rate is not being debated...

Contrary to what you said above, the hospitalization rate is soaring.

 

[Cherrytreeview]

5 hours ago, Macrohistory said:

 

Indeed:  It suggests that Omicron will surely sicken people who've been vaccinated or who have had another variant before, but it will be less likely than Delta to cause such people serious disease.

 

On the other hand, Omicron may be just as likely as Delta to seriously sicken the unvaccinated and people who've never had another variant before.  It is not, in other words, likely to be intrinsically less pathogenic.  That will almost certainly prove to have been a pipe dream.

 

Moreover, because Omicron spreads so much faster than even Delta, it will quickly infect huge swathes of the global population.  Even if the percentage of people who become seriously ill is lower with Omicron -- because so many are now vaccinated or else have had another variant of Covid before -- the absolute numbers of those needing hospital care, including ICU care, is likely to soar in the coming couple of months.  This will put enormous pressure on health care systems, especially in countries or regions of countries that are relatively under-vaxxed.

 

Hard to know how Thailand will fare in such a scenario.  With social distancing now a thing of the past, Omicron is likely to spread like wildfire.  Thailand needs to continue vaccinating like crazy, taking care of all those who haven't been vaxxed at all yet and moving rapidly forward with boosters.

 

Exactly.

Never ceases to amaze me that people don't understand this after 2 years of a global pandemic.

Health care system under pressure = restrictions.

[Sanookmike]

I find if funny that ppl jump on he's a ex nurse ingnoring that he has a degree in science, biology and a master's in health science along with research degree Dr of philosophy...

 

There's no misinformation here when its looking bad he tells you and most importantly shows you current science/data as to why and when it looks good he does the same.