SURVEY: Omicron--Dangerous, Worrisome or Overblown?

[Bkk Brian]

4 minutes ago, fjb 24 said:

Covid/vaccines

Different variants bring different transmissiblety and vaccine effectiveness, however your cases metric should be on severe/hospitalizations as below. Vaccines work.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

[Chomper Higgot]

7 minutes ago, fjb 24 said:

Covid/vaccines

Yes very good.

 

Vaccines that we’re not designed for the newly arrived variant of the virus.

 

 

[fjb 24]

12 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Different variants bring different transmissiblety and vaccine effectiveness, however your cases metric should be on severe/hospitalizations as below. Vaccines work.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

SA situation is one to be studied if you are interested. They have practical experience dealing with illness and virus's. They are at 100% omicron cases now with no discernible crisis in illness, hospitalizations, deaths due to covid. The situation in Europe is devolving despite herd immunity levels of vaccination rates although experts may not all agree on the way forward in that dept now.

[fjb 24]

27 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

newly arrived variant of the virus.

Not many countries have high rates of omicron at this time. Many Euro countries are besieged with Delta or other variants BUT not omicron. The vaccines were not designed for delta and subsequent variants (AFAIK) and thus doing little to stem the current rising infections in countries with high vaccination rates.. We know now that AZ vaccine offers little or no protection now after 100 days, mRNA offer ~ 30% protection and now they claim 70% protection after 3rd shot/booster.

[Bkk Brian]

6 minutes ago, fjb 24 said:

SA situation is one to be studied if you are interested. They have practical experience dealing with illness and virus's. They are at 100% omicron cases now with no discernible crisis in illness, hospitalizations, deaths due to covid. The situation in Europe is devolving despite herd immunity levels of vaccination rates although experts may not all agree on the way forward in that dept now.

Yes I have studied it a little and I tend to agree with the latest reports on it.

 

WHO warns against dismissing Omicron variant as ‘mild’ after early data
 

People underestimate coronavirus at their peril, health officials have warned, as they voiced concerns that the Omicron variant was being dismissed by some as “mild”.

Data from South Africa is still in its early stage and countries must act now in the face of a potentially “large wave of cases” of the faster-spreading strain, Dr Mike Ryan of the World Health Organisation said.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/coronavirus/2021/12/14/who-warns-against-dismissing-omicron-variant-as-mild-after-early-data/

 

And from South Africa itself:

South Africa’s high level of infections could be masking how severe Omicron is

“We’re going to have to tease apart if the mild cases are due to young people getting infected or if the previous population immunity from infection and vaccination are responsible for decreasing the number of hospitalized individuals.”

https://businesstech.co.za/news/trending/546818/south-africas-high-level-of-infections-could-be-masking-how-severe-omicron-is/

[fjb 24]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

“We’re going to have to tease apart if the mild cases are due to young people getting infected

I don't understand what they're alluding to here, unless they're implying young are less impacted by omicron.

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

if the previous population immunity from infection and vaccination are responsible for decreasing the number of hospitalized individuals.”

This is the part that has peaked my curiosity as this may be the beginning of natural immunity against covid, at least this variant and the pandemic becomes endemic and life goes on just with another nuisance flu being the end result.

I have NO hesitation stating that the current vaccines will accomplish very little now or going forward to beat down covid and I am looking forward to new and improved 2nd generation vaccines and other medical treatments.

[Bkk Brian]

3 minutes ago, fjb 24 said:

I don't understand what they're alluding to here, unless they're implying young are less impacted by omicron.

This is the part that has peaked my curiosity as this may be the beginning of natural immunity against covid, at least this variant and the pandemic becomes endemic and life goes on just with another nuisance flu being the end result.

I have NO hesitation stating that the current vaccines will accomplish very little now or going forward to beat down covid and I am looking forward to new and improved 2nd generation vaccines and other medical treatments.

Patience more time is needed, listen to the experts and scientists from WHO, still conflicting info coming out of SA, a few more weeks will tell.

 

"If you think Prior Covid protects against Omicron (B.1.1.529), think again"

"Neutralizing antibody titers against Omicron were low, even below the limit of detection in a significant fraction of convalescent individuals"

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.08.21267491v1

[fjb 24]

3 hours ago, Scott said:

There is nothing to suggest that natural immunity is better than immunity provided by vaccines.  There is also nothing to indicate that antibodies last longer with natural immunity.  

 

It's somewhat misleading to compare the situation in South Africa to the UK without mentioning some of the factors that are in play. 

 

"Evidence is building that immunity from Covid-19 infection is at least as strong as that from vaccination. Scientists are divided on the implications for vaccine policy."

CONCLUSIONS Protection from reinfection decreases with time since previous infection, but is, nevertheless, higher than that conferred by vaccination with two doses at a similar time since the last immunity-conferring event. A single vaccine dose after infection helps to restore protection.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.04.21267114v1

I am unsure, but there are some who have tried to show NI benefits.

As for SA and UK they are indeed very unique cases but I can see that delta is crippling vaccinated countries like UK whereas omicron is spreading fast in unvaccinated locations with no major illness or CFR. So, this warrants attention from the covid experts. The developments in SA may be very critical in the understanding and the evolution of the covid pandemic and steps which may prove beneficial. It's all about solving the problem.

[Virt]

8 minutes ago, fjb 24 said:

Not many countries have high rates of omicron at this time. Many Euro countries are besieged with Delta or other variants BUT not omicron. The vaccines were not designed for delta and subsequent variants (AFAIK) and thus doing little to stem the current rising infections in countries with high vaccination rates.. We know now that AZ vaccine offers little or no protection now after 100 days, mRNA offer ~ 30% protection and now they claim 70% protection after 3rd shot/booster.

70% is still a lot better than nothing.

Look at South Africa.

9 out of 10 in their ICUs are not vaccinated according to this interview

and she recommend people to get their vaccine/boosters.

 

Not sure if this interview with her can be seen where you are.

It's from a Danish news site.

 

https://tv2-dk-videos.secure.footprint.net/TV2flash/flex/cf3b4807-1c5a-4e63-a4d8-a3c19e59f11a.mp4

[Scott]

2 minutes ago, fjb 24 said:

"Evidence is building that immunity from Covid-19 infection is at least as strong as that from vaccination. Scientists are divided on the implications for vaccine policy."

CONCLUSIONS Protection from reinfection decreases with time since previous infection, but is, nevertheless, higher than that conferred by vaccination with two doses at a similar time since the last immunity-conferring event. A single vaccine dose after infection helps to restore protection.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.04.21267114v1

I am unsure, but there are some who have tried to show NI benefits.

As for SA and UK they are indeed very unique cases but I can see that delta is crippling vaccinated countries like UK whereas omicron is spreading fast in unvaccinated locations with no major illness or CFR. So, this warrants attention from the covid experts. The developments in SA may be very critical in the understanding and the evolution of the covid pandemic and steps which may prove beneficial. It's all about solving the problem.

Again, nothing to suggest natural immunity is better, but a lot to suggest that getting Covid runs a lot higher risks than getting vaccinated and boosted. 

 

It is also possible to get both Delta and Omicron which runs the risk of recombination of two varieties.

[fjb 24]

15 minutes ago, Scott said:

Again, nothing to suggest natural immunity is better

Ok, so what about some of the studies addressing the NI impact.

"This study demonstrated that natural immunity confers longer-lasting and stronger protection against infection,"

Maybe it's not emphatically know which provides better immunity yet. And maybe the SA situation will shed some light on this issue.

I'll end with this: "The evidence is strong that the fully vaccinated can become infected, colonize, and transmit the virus—particularly heavy loads of virus. This opens the door for an unvaccinated person with a fully intact functional immune system to be potentially overwhelmed by a massive viral load from the vaccinated. The vaccine has failed against Delta; disregarding the vaccinated as a source of pathogen and spread could be catastrophic."

[fjb 24]

24 minutes ago, Scott said:

which runs the risk of recombination of two varieties.

You lost me on this.

[Virt]

1 hour ago, fjb 24 said:

Covid/vaccines

In Denmark we had a lockdown from Dec 16, 2020 that were eased  march 1, 2021 so it were 4 months where we couldn't do a whole lot of things.

If that lockdown had not been in place we would have seen way more covid cases in that period where we didn't have so many vaccinated people.

 

It's also important to point out that first case of Delta was found june 21 in Denmark, and even if it killed people and sadly still do ,the Delta variant were not that much of a problem , since most people above 50 had received their 2nd shot when it arrived.

 

So the vaccines worked against Delta, even if the vaccines were not aimed at that specific variant.

 

Just like the vaccines will provide some protection against Omicron.

Maybe not as much as we could wish, but still way better than no vaccines.

 

What we are seeing now in December 2021 with that huge spike are most likely a combo of several things.

No lockdowns or restrictions up until a few weeks ago ,Winter arrived, Delta still around, Vaccines starting to fade, Massive testing and Omicron surfaced.

 

Those things can explain most of that huge spike.

 

[fjb 24]

3 hours ago, rabas said:

blow a big hole in your anti vaccine argument

You were saying about some "big hole".

Vaccinations Rates: UK is 69% fully vaccinated, S Africa is 26% fully vaccinated but

Covid Death Rates: UK's covid death rate is > 4 times the death rate in S Africa.

In summation, what we have are countries with high vaccination rates with increasing death rates and new covid infections which are both outpacing S Africa's (low vaccine rate-26%) death rates and infection rates. The vaccines are struggling and failing now. There is no other explanation.

UK's daily new covid infections are more than double that of SA. and Denmark's daily infection rate is almost 4 times that of SA infection rate. (as of Dec 13/21)

 

Edited December 15, 2021 by fjb 24

[Virt]

No idea if this guy is right or wrong, but he explains it in an way that is interesting to watch,

and he think omicron is a good thing, unless it mutate into a new strain.

 

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

10 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

If you were in a position of global decision making power would you ignore the virus and let it run its natural course ?

I've already stated my preferred option a few times, but apparently you missed them.

I'd provide isolation support for the actually vulnerable if they wished to isolate, and provided information to the populace as how to protect themselves, then done what Sweden did initially.

 

Interesting interview with an Australian NSW journalist on the radio this morning. He said basically that the citizens of Sydney are so over covid, and are back to normal as much as possible- businesses open, no masks no checking/ QR codes etc.

25,000 positive cases a day, but he says low numbers in ICU, hospitalizations steady.

He said NSW had spent 60 BILLION $ on covid.

He also said what I've been saying, "should have got back to normal much earlier".

 

https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/easing-covid-19-restrictions/opening-in-dec

 

 

NSW has also apparently given up on penalising the unvaccinated. Pity the NZ government isn't as enightened. NZ government has IMO embarked on a campaign to create a divided country. The "team of 5 million" is well and truly gone.

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/nsw-covid-restrictions-to-ease-on-december-15-changes-to-masks-check-ins-unvaccinated-freedoms-c-4923081

The changes - which came into effect on Wednesday, December 15 - see restrictions align for all, regardless of vaccination status.

 

No doubt many will disagree with him ( and me ), but the government response has IMO caused more problems for the future than a less draconian response would have.

The numbers of people I know that "dislike" government is certainly higher now than before corona happened.

 

 

[Scott]

3 hours ago, fjb 24 said:

Ok, so what about some of the studies addressing the NI impact.

"This study demonstrated that natural immunity confers longer-lasting and stronger protection against infection,"

Maybe it's not emphatically know which provides better immunity yet. And maybe the SA situation will shed some light on this issue.

I'll end with this: "The evidence is strong that the fully vaccinated can become infected, colonize, and transmit the virus—particularly heavy loads of virus. This opens the door for an unvaccinated person with a fully intact functional immune system to be potentially overwhelmed by a massive viral load from the vaccinated. The vaccine has failed against Delta; disregarding the vaccinated as a source of pathogen and spread could be catastrophic."

I am not wishing to get into a protracted argument about natural vs vaccine-induced immunity.  There have been many studies (mostly a review of existing information) on both.  There is nothing to indicate there is an advantage to natural immunity:

 

New studies show that natural immunity to the coronavirus weakens (wanes) over time, and does so faster than immunity provided by COVID-19 vaccination.

 

The COVID-19 vaccines are recommended, even if you had COVID-19. At present, evidence from Johns Hopkins Medicine and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) supports getting a COVID-19 vaccine as the best protection against getting COVID-19, whether you have already had the virus or not.

 

• A study published in August 2021 indicates that if you had COVID-19 before and are not vaccinated, your risk of getting re-infected is more than two times higher than for those who got vaccinated after having COVID-19.
• Another study published on Nov. 5, 2021, by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) looked at adults hospitalized for COVID-like sickness between January and September 2021. This study found that the chances of these adults testing positive for COVID-19 were 5.49 times higher in unvaccinated people who had COVID-19 in the past than they were for those who had been vaccinated for COVID and had not had an infection before.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/covid-natural-immunity-what-you-need-to-know

 

All indications are that natural immunity wanes quicker than vaccine-induced immunity.  Natural immunity also varies much more than vaccine immunity.  In other words, one person may have significantly greater immunity for longer than another person.  In short, it's less predictable.  It appears that those with mild cases have less immunity than those with more severe cases.  

 

We are largely arguing about a lot of unknowns and much of it depends on the individual.  If you had a mild case, recovered and wish to take your chances, so be it.  You do have some immunity.  You may even have a great deal of immunity that will last a long time.  

 

By the way, recombination is when two different variants exist in the same host.   This can happen with Covid, including Omicron.  There is a chance that genetic material from both variants can be included in a new variant.  The danger is if you get a more dangerous strain (such as Delta) that combines with a less dangerous strain (Omicron) and the new strain ends up being highly transmissible from Omicron and dangerous like Delta.   Recombination is why it is so hard to figure out what type of flu season lies ahead.  

[Fat is a type of crazy]

3 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I've already stated my preferred option a few times, but apparently you missed them.

I'd provide isolation support for the actually vulnerable if they wished to isolate, and provided information to the populace as how to protect themselves, then done what Sweden did initially.

 

Interesting interview with an Australian NSW journalist on the radio this morning. He said basically that the citizens of Sydney are so over covid, and are back to normal as much as possible- businesses open, no masks no checking/ QR codes etc.

25,000 positive cases a day, but he says low numbers in ICU, hospitalizations steady.

He said NSW had spent 60 BILLION $ on covid.

He also said what I've been saying, "should have got back to normal much earlier".

 

https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/easing-covid-19-restrictions/opening-in-dec

 

 

NSW has also apparently given up on penalising the unvaccinated. Pity the NZ government isn't as enightened. NZ government has IMO embarked on a campaign to create a divided country. The "team of 5 million" is well and truly gone.

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/nsw-covid-restrictions-to-ease-on-december-15-changes-to-masks-check-ins-unvaccinated-freedoms-c-4923081

The changes - which came into effect on Wednesday, December 15 - see restrictions align for all, regardless of vaccination status.

 

No doubt many will disagree with him ( and me ), but the government response has IMO caused more problems for the future than a less draconian response would have.

The numbers of people I know that "dislike" government is certainly higher now than before corona happened.

 

 

Just to clarify NSW has a bit over 1000 cases a day. The 25000 cases is one  prediction and this may or may not lead to significantly higher levels  in ICU and hospitalisations depending on how omicron plays out.

Australia is pretty much back to normal and have had low deaths and illnesses thanks to the policies such as lockdowns, when there was low vaccination rates,  and then getting 90 per cent vaccinated. Good job. 

Edited December 15, 2021 by Fat is a type of crazy

[thaibeachlovers]

43 minutes ago, Fat is a type of crazy said:

Just to clarify NSW has a bit over 1000 cases a day. The 25000 cases is one  prediction and this may or may not lead to significantly higher levels  in ICU and hospitalisations depending on how omicron plays out.

Australia is pretty much back to normal and have had low deaths and illnesses thanks to the policies such as lockdowns, when there was low vaccination rates,  and then getting 90 per cent vaccinated. Good job. 

I thought he said 25,000 a day ( perhaps for all of Australia ), but I'll take your word for it.

 

He did say that WA is still under restrictions and will be till next year.

[Fat is a type of crazy]

2 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I thought he said 25,000 a day ( perhaps for all of Australia ), but I'll take your word for it.

 

He did say that WA is still under restrictions and will be till next year.

WA have been over the top. They have nil new cases and want to keep it that way despite low risk given less than 3000 new cases Australia wide per day and that people coming could be tested before they get there. 

[TropicalGuy]

13 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

The data on Omicron is being compiled and is at best only a few weeks old.

 

Hiw dangerous’ it is to an individual is only part of the equation, also to be considered is how fast it is spreading and the rate that it is putting people into hospital or otherwise rendering them unfit for work or in need of medical support.

Indeed. Omicron R factor 8 is most concerning. Vs Delta at R1……
Cuts to your NHS overload point.

Massive Wake Up Call to the persistent ignorant self- abusing Unfit….. oh wait, too late……

[Danderman123]

10 hours ago, fjb 24 said:

You were saying about some "big hole".

Vaccinations Rates: UK is 69% fully vaccinated, S Africa is 26% fully vaccinated but

Covid Death Rates: UK's covid death rate is > 4 times the death rate in S Africa.

In summation, what we have are countries with high vaccination rates with increasing death rates and new covid infections which are both outpacing S Africa's (low vaccine rate-26%) death rates and infection rates. The vaccines are struggling and failing now. There is no other explanation.

UK's daily new covid infections are more than double that of SA. and Denmark's daily infection rate is almost 4 times that of SA infection rate. (as of Dec 13/21)

 

There are plenty of explanations.

 

The UK population is much older than SA.

 

The UK handles data a lot better than SA.

 

The UK has a lot more Delta cases than SA.

 

Most fatalities in the UK are unvaccinated.

 

[Rimmer]

A misleading post and replies have been removed

[TropicalGuy]

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

There are plenty of explanations.

 

The UK population is much older than SA.

 

The UK handles data a lot better than SA.

 

The UK has a lot more Delta cases than SA.

 

Most fatalities in the UK are unvaccinated.

 

No Comparison Whatsoever between medical Data from civilized advanced accountable countries and political “data” from corrupt <deleted>hole dictatorships…….

[fjb 24]

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

The UK handles data a lot better than SA

Can you clarify and back up this claim as I find it dubious and baseless.

Furthermore data is managed and presented, not "handled", but since you mentioned it, here's a example of misleading data

15 minutes ago, TropicalGuy said:

The UK has a lot more Delta cases than SA

Until 1st case of omicron identified in SA in early November, Delta was the primary variant in SA and most countries and responsible for the vast majority of covid infections and deaths up to now (only one reported know death reported by BBC in the UK: "died with omicron"). There may be more deaths due to omicron variant but not widely published yet.

[Danderman123]

28 minutes ago, fjb 24 said:

Can you clarify and back up this claim as I find it dubious and baseless.

Furthermore data is managed and presented, not "handled", but since you mentioned it, here's a example of misleading data

Until 1st case of omicron identified in SA in early November, Delta was the primary variant in SA and most countries and responsible for the vast majority of covid infections and deaths up to now (only one reported know death reported by BBC in the UK: "died with omicron"). There may be more deaths due to omicron variant but not widely published yet.

You just made my point for me. Thank you.

 

Unless you think that the 165 deaths in the UK yesterday came from Omicron.

 

 

[fjb 24]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

Delta was the primary variant in SA and most countries and responsible for the vast majority of covid infections and deaths up to now

 

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

made my point for me

The point is, Delta is dominant everywhere except SA, Botswana and HK up to early November and still is in UK and most all countries, so UK's is no different than DK, Austria, etc with Delta infections and deaths, but UK may have more deaths and infections as leaky vaccines and waning VE are taking place. Look at the curves the past 12 months or from June (delta), SA had primarily Delta and managed much better with much lower vaccine rates than UK and most of Europe. That is the point that you try to ignore but is fact based now. Vaccines don't prevent infections and illness despite what you think now, hope is now this 3rd dose booster idea does not <deleted> out after 3 months as well. Omicron, despite evading mRNA injections seems milder in symptoms and illness. Time will tell, but to sit here and gaslight that UK is having to deal with Delta as an excuse for their mismanaged covid management strategies and low VE vaccines and out of control infection rates in vaxxed and unvaxxed is intellectually incoherent when the entire globe has delta as the predominate variant. You are intent on creating confusion for others here, nothing more.

And the other comment about UK data "handling" compared to SA is another laughable attempt of yours to deflect and obfuscate. 555, so I laugh now.

[fjb 24]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

Unless you think that the 165 deaths in the UK yesterday came from Omicron

Your words, you can "think" what you want, it's meaningless.

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, fjb 24 said:

 

The point is, Delta is dominant everywhere except SA, Botswana and HK up to early November and still is in UK and most all countries, so UK's is no different than DK, Austria, etc with Delta infections and deaths, but UK may have more deaths and infections as leaky vaccines and waning VE are taking place. Look at the curves the past 12 months or from June (delta), SA had primarily Delta and managed much better with much lower vaccine rates than UK and most of Europe. That is the point that you try to ignore but is fact based now. Vaccines don't prevent infections and illness despite what you think now, hope is now this 3rd dose booster idea does not <deleted> out after 3 months as well. Omicron, despite evading mRNA injections seems milder in symptoms and illness. Time will tell, but to sit here and gaslight that UK is having to deal with Delta as an excuse for their mismanaged covid management strategies and low VE vaccines and out of control infection rates in vaxxed and unvaxxed is intellectually incoherent when the entire globe has delta as the predominate variant. You are intent on creating confusion for others here, nothing more.

And the other comment about UK data "handling" compared to SA is another laughable attempt of yours to deflect and obfuscate. 555, so I laugh now.

Misinformation.

 

Vaccines are up to 90% effective in protecting against Delta infection.

 

Let me ask you this: if you were exposed to Delta, would you rather be vaccinated or unvaccinated?

[Danderman123]

20 hours ago, fjb 24 said:

Covid/vaccines

Denmark’s vaccines were doing great until Omicron hit.