Assault on Kiev: Russian helicopters swoop above Ukraine's capital

[beautifulthailand99]

42 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Nice one David! 

 

Britain 'prepared to loan Ukraine all frozen Russian central bank assets in UK'
Britain is prepared to loan Ukraine all frozen Russian central bank assets in the UK on the basis that Russia will be forced to pay reparations to Ukraine at the end of the war, the UK foreign secretary David Cameron has said.

He said the assets would be used as surety for the payment of the reparations. The plan is more radical than proposals discussed in the European Union for Ukraine to be given only the windfall profits from the Russian central bank assets being held by the West. The annual windfall profits are estimated at $4bn.

More in the link here

The danger of course in sequestrating foreign assets from the western banking system for whatever reason is it sends the message to worldwide autocrats that it could happen to them. So China and a host of other countries will begin repatriating their assets to safer havens. If that happens, then there will be a retreat from the dollar and linked currencies and bond market crisis as countries will be forced to raise interest rates on bonds and increase the servicing costs of the debt they already hold. Any remaining western assets in Russia will of course be seized as well to add to the bounty that Russia already has from the fire sale of well known brands to local oligarch such as MacDonalds and Starbucks.

 

The China/Russia/Iran/NK/BRICS Global South alternative financial universe is already expanding at pace - sequestration will be a key signal for many players to move over there. Indeed, China has set up its own Bank to deal with it. The sun is setting on dollar western hegemony.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Development_Bank

 

https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91556

 

Above all, they fear that doing so would deter sovereign wealth funds, central banks, corporations, and private investors from the Global South from investing in European assets. A potential outflow of investment in euros would have serious consequences: a rise in borrowing costs and inflation, as well as a fall in tax revenues.

 

Some might say that there is nothing to worry about: after all, losing an investment is a calculated risk in high-yield investing in emerging markets, especially when, as in Russia’s case, the threat of sanctions has existed for years. Yet this argument, which is based on a fundamental principle of capitalism—that there is no profit without risk—has a major flaw.

For many systemically important Western firms, writing off Russian assets would spell disaster. Take Euroclear, used by foreign investors to buy Russian stocks and bonds. If its clients’ assets were seized, it could face a slew of lawsuits and even bankruptcy.

Bailing out companies like Euroclear would ultimately cost European governments even more than direct aid to Ukraine. An exchange of frozen assets is therefore the most logical solution, but so far no one is willing to break the deadlock.

[Bkk Brian]

12 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

The danger of course in sequestrating foreign assets from the western banking system for whatever reason is it sends the message to worldwide autocrats that it could happen to them. So China and a host of other countries will begin repatriating their assets to safer havens. If that happens, then there will be a retreat from the dollar and linked currencies and bond market crisis as countries will be forced to raise interest rates on bonds and increase the servicing costs of the debt they already hold. Any remaining western assets in Russia will of course be seized as well to add to the bounty that Russia already has from the fire sale of well known brands to local oligarch such as MacDonalds and Starbucks.

 

The China/Russia/Iran/NK/BRICS Global South alternative financial universe is already expanding at pace - sequestration will be a key signal for many players to move over there. Indeed, China has set up its own Bank to deal with it. The sun is setting on dollar western hegemony.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Development_Bank

 

https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91556

 

Above all, they fear that doing so would deter sovereign wealth funds, central banks, corporations, and private investors from the Global South from investing in European assets. A potential outflow of investment in euros would have serious consequences: a rise in borrowing costs and inflation, as well as a fall in tax revenues.

 

Some might say that there is nothing to worry about: after all, losing an investment is a calculated risk in high-yield investing in emerging markets, especially when, as in Russia’s case, the threat of sanctions has existed for years. Yet this argument, which is based on a fundamental principle of capitalism—that there is no profit without risk—has a major flaw.

For many systemically important Western firms, writing off Russian assets would spell disaster. Take Euroclear, used by foreign investors to buy Russian stocks and bonds. If its clients’ assets were seized, it could face a slew of lawsuits and even bankruptcy.

Bailing out companies like Euroclear would ultimately cost European governments even more than direct aid to Ukraine. An exchange of frozen assets is therefore the most logical solution, but so far no one is willing to break the deadlock.

The danger of course in sequestrating foreign assets from the western banking system for whatever reason is it sends the message to worldwide autocrats that it could happen to them. 

 

Yawn, risk to every action. Well done UK

[beautifulthailand99]

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

The danger of course in sequestrating foreign assets from the western banking system for whatever reason is it sends the message to worldwide autocrats that it could happen to them. 

 

Yawn, risk to every action. Well done UK

No cost for you, of course, in blood and treasure from your Thailand lair, but western taxpayers may think differently if they understand the costs and risks more fully. He may of course be grandstanding, fully expecting it to be lost in the thicket of implementation. Trump may use such threats in his shotgun diplomacy if he comes to power next year.

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, beautifulthailand99 said:

No cost for you, of course, in blood and treasure from your Thailand lair, but western taxpayers may think differently if they understand the costs and risks more fully. He may of course be grandstanding, fully expecting it to be lost in the thicket of implementation. Trump may use such threats in his shotgun diplomacy if he comes to power next year.

What makes you think me or my family do not pay tax in the UK. Like I said, risk to everything, risk to sending Himars, one was confirmed destroyed, still 38 left. These sorts of risks are calculated. 

 

Would you like to get back on topic now.

[steven100]

12 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

The danger of course in sequestrating foreign assets from the western banking system for whatever reason is it sends the message to worldwide autocrats that it could happen to them. 

 

Yawn, risk to every action. Well done UK

so why do I read Ukraine military secrets plastered all over yahoo news,  like what they have and how they use the and what they are making and what they are doing with drones in the water ...............  why tell the Russians this on the internet  ???????????????????????????????

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, steven100 said:

so why do I read Ukraine military secrets plastered all over yahoo news,  like what they have and how they use the and what they are making and what they are doing with drones in the water ...............  why tell the Russians this on the internet  ???????????????????????????????

How does that question to me equate to my post which said 

 

18 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Yawn, risk to every action. Well done UK

Another one that needs to get back on topic jeez

[beautifulthailand99]

13 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

What makes you think me or my family do not pay tax in the UK. Like I said, risk to everything, risk to sending Himars, one was confirmed destroyed, still 38 left. These sorts of risks are calculated. 

 

Would you like to get back on topic now.

From that link I provided from Carnegie. I call grandstanding - who will buy this debt ? Anybody here willing to invest in this bond ?

 

Alternatively, under a plan reportedly already circulating among G7 nations, the assets could be used as collateral for bonds. Ukraine’s allies would first demand that Russia repays the debt, and if it refuses to do so, the frozen assets would be confiscated, according to the Financial Times. Selling the bonds would raise funds and the flow of money could be regulated. It would also avoid many of the risks described above, as officially Russia’s assets would remain unappropriated until the bonds are repaid.

The difficulty is finding someone to buy those bonds. Central banks are unlikely to step in: that would effectively be akin to printing money and a return to the quantitative easing policies of the 2009 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. For their part, commercial banks are unlikely to buy the bonds without guarantees (in effect, debt securities) from Western governments. Thus, transferring Russia’s frozen assets to Kyiv this way would prove costly for the West and its taxpayers.

[steven100]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

How does that question to me equate to my post which said 

 

Another one that needs to get back on topic jeez

I'm asking for your thoughts .............

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, steven100 said:

I'm asking for your thoughts .............

No idea not that interested sorry

[Bkk Brian]

6 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

From that link I provided from Carnegie. I call grandstanding - who will buy this debt ? Anybody here in to invest in this bond ?

 

Alternatively, under a plan reportedly already circulating among G7 nations, the assets could be used as collateral for bonds. Ukraine’s allies would first demand that Russia repays the debt, and if it refuses to do so, the frozen assets would be confiscated, according to the Financial Times. Selling the bonds would raise funds and the flow of money could be regulated. It would also avoid many of the risks described above, as officially Russia’s assets would remain unappropriated until the bonds are repaid.

The difficulty is finding someone to buy those bonds. Central banks are unlikely to step in: that would effectively be akin to printing money and a return to the quantitative easing policies of the 2009 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. For their part, commercial banks are unlikely to buy the bonds without guarantees (in effect, debt securities) from Western governments. Thus, transferring Russia’s frozen assets to Kyiv this way would prove costly for the West and its taxpayers.

wow amazing. Well done UK for being the first one which will then be followed by Europe

 

EU moves toward using profits from frozen Russian assets for Ukraine

[steven100]

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

No idea not that interested sorry

ok .. thanks

[steven100]

12 minutes ago, steven100 said:

so why do I read Ukraine military secrets plastered all over yahoo news,  like what they have and how they use the and what they are making and what they are doing with drones in the water ...............  why tell the Russians this on the internet  ???????????????????????????????

can anyone here tell me what they think about my question

[beautifulthailand99]

5 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

wow amazing. Well done UK for being the first one which will then be followed by Europe

From that Guardian article you qouted.

 

The strength of the proposal is that seized assets would be deemed to have been returned to Russia after the payment of reparations. The proposal’s weakness is that it assumes Ukraine will win a military victory and a defeated Moscow will be prepared to pay reparations for the damage it caused to Ukraine, something that now seems unimaginable.

[beautifulthailand99]

2 minutes ago, steven100 said:

can anyone here tell me what they think about my question

A link would help.

[Bkk Brian]

4 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

From that Guardian article you qouted.

 

The strength of the proposal is that seized assets would be deemed to have been returned to Russia after the payment of reparations. The proposal’s weakness is that it assumes Ukraine will win a military victory and a defeated Moscow will be prepared to pay reparations for the damage it caused to Ukraine, something that now seems unimaginable.

Oh no! 😅

[steven100]

6 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

A link would help.

It's a question .......      can you not read the comment     ??

 

so why do I read Ukraine military secrets plastered all over yahoo news,  like what they have and how they use the and what they are making and what they are doing with drones in the water ...............  why tell the Russians this on the internet  ????????????????????????????

[kwonitoy]

The endless cold war stockpiles evidently, have a bottom.

They have a very limited to non existent manufacturing capability, jets, ships artillery pieces, tanks, etc.

The tanks that do get supplied are refurbishments from stockpiles like this one, they aren't capable of making new ones, or artillery barrels, or steel, etc.

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

33 minutes ago, kwonitoy said:

The endless cold war stockpiles evidently, have a bottom.

They have a very limited to non existent manufacturing capability, jets, ships artillery pieces, tanks, etc.

The tanks that do get supplied are refurbishments from stockpiles like this one, they aren't capable of making new ones, or artillery barrels, or steel, etc.

 

 

I find r/Ukraine is full on propaganda, fair enough that's what it there for and it's explicit purpose.  I read and contribute to r/UkraineRussiaReport that has a lively mix of Pro-UA, Pro-Russia and neutral. So all posts are hotly debated, torn part and critiqued. It has been an amazing source and clearing house of commentary, information links and OSINT that you simply don't get elsewhere. But it's a not an echo chamber and if you come with straight out propaganda you will get ripped anew one. It's got 75k members. WillyOAM the Aussie ex-infantryman is great as well on YouTube.

[Bkk Brian]

5 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

 

 

If you really want to help them, then maybe consider investing your own hard cash in their government bonds and help fund their war effort rather than clacking away on an Internet forum. For after all, if this cunning plan comes to fruition then they could soar.

 

https://vnesok.nssmc.gov.ua/en/

Go away troll

[Mike Lister]

Posts that were trolling, off topic and used quotes, far exceeding fair use, have been removed.

 

I think that's enough for today, don't you!

 

 

[Mavideol]

16 hours ago, steven100 said:

can anyone here tell me what they think about my question

propaganda ???

[Mavideol]

Ukraine-Russia war live: Putin ‘will not stop’ says Biden as Moscow warns of full-scale war in Europe

https://au.yahoo.com/news/russia-ukraine-war-live-putin-092003533.html

[Mavideol]

The one clever trick Ukraine uses to shoot down Russian planes

https://www.yahoo.com/news/one-clever-trick-ukraine-uses-153023940.html

[beautifulthailand99]

The proliferation of articles in the pro-Ukraine western press detailing the dire position of the Ukrainian front are an indication of a potential rout and collapse of the front. Macron's posturing about there may have to be boots on the ground is a reflection of that reality. But the truth is the western electorates don't want that, and anyway they are in a poor state militarily to make much difference even if they did never mind the terrible optics of body bags for a war few understand or even care about any more and besides they need any ammo they have for themselves. The Ukrainians have more than shown their bravery and valour, but there comes a time when to continue for no gain is senseless slaughter. Armistice now.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/08/russia-ukraine-forces-struggle-enemy-mariinka

 

“The Russians have more of everything. Tanks, artillery, human resources and planes,” Sasha admitted, speaking as he conducted a test flight with his bomb-carrying quadcopter. In the distance, next to a slag heap, black smoke billowed into a white sky. He added: “We have a lot less. And they prepared for this war for a long time. Unfortunately, we didn’t. We can only survive if the west steps up and gives us more weapons.”

 

If you want the old battalion,
I know where they are, I know where they are, I know where they are
If you want to find the old battalion, I know where they are,
They're hanging on the old barbed wire,
I've seen 'em, I've seen 'em, hanging on the old barbed wire.
I've seen 'em, I've seen 'em, hanging on the old barbed wire

 

Besides which there is a conscription crisis, the days of young men queuing up to defend their country have long since gone. Would you be signing up to fight at this point ?

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68255490

 

When Pavlo Zhilin and his patrol hit the streets of Cherkasy, men often swerve to avoid them.

Pavlo is a conscription officer looking for soldiers for Ukraine's army.

But almost two years into Russia's full-scale invasion, there's no flood of volunteers to the front line anymore.

Most of those who wanted to fight are either dead, injured or still stuck at the front waiting to be relieved by new recruits.

In the central town of Cherkasy, like elsewhere, finding them isn't easy now that the first burst of enthusiasm and energy has faded.

Ukraine is exhausted.

[tgw]

On 3/6/2024 at 8:40 PM, steven100 said:

can anyone here tell me what they think about my question

 

I think what the you and possibly the Russians consider to be "secrets" is of little intelligence value.

Heck, when I purchased maps in Russia and Ukraine, people were suspicious of me because they were wondering what the westerner wanted with their secret maps (this happened a long time before google maps).

 

If you want something really secret, you should google the "Budanov triangle" where Ruzzian ships and airplanes disappear with increasing frequency.

[Hummin]

On 3/6/2024 at 2:36 PM, Bkk Brian said:

wow amazing. Well done UK for being the first one which will then be followed by Europe

 

EU moves toward using profits from frozen Russian assets for Ukraine

There is a risk doing so without a longer process which useslly done after a war is ended. 

 

How would this paint the west thinking about russias allies, and potential future allies who is tired of the west two faced double morality. 

 

There is a reason Asian, African and South American countries looking more to Russia and China as potential allies against the west.

 

This is a fine line for the moment where everything can be turned against us. 

 

As much we want Ukraine to win, there is a need for a sober and realistic approach.

 

Ukraine war is more a trench war between Russia and the west using Ukraine as an buffer zone, sacrifice ukraine lives. 

 

The sad thing and still a huge problem during the war, is ineffective and corrupt personnel and leaders in Ukraine,  where sent materiel and  support get lost and dissappears. 

[Hummin]

There is no interesting  realistic sober discussion here at all. Just typewriter warriors who are better to give emotions, and talk bs. 

 

Wars is not won solely by propaganda, and for two years some here continuesly silence every healthy realistically debate about what is really going on. 

[Mavideol]

More Russian warplanes are flying in Ukraine, posing risks for Kyiv and Moscow

https://au.yahoo.com/news/more-russian-warplanes-flying-ukraine-162050137.html

[tgw]

6 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

More Russian warplanes are flying in Ukraine, posing risks for Kyiv and Moscow

https://au.yahoo.com/news/more-russian-warplanes-flying-ukraine-162050137.html

 

it's because they have run out of missiles and are very short on artillery shells as well. plus, the north korean shells are very unprecise because of poor manufacturing.

so they send planes to use the ruzzian equivalent of jdams as infantry and front line support.

 

so an increasing number of ruzzian planes get shot down.

 

[beautifulthailand99]

In terms of sanctions on Russia they have been an unmitigated disaster for the West - forcing a pivotal movement of those markets and resources away from the west to new partners, accelerated the process towards consolidating and expanding their industrial and industrial military base, cementing an inviolable relationship with China and others that can prove an able and willing partner to replace tech know how that they lost with sanctions. What has happened we have sanctioned ourselves, threatened German's industrial base which was posited on cheap Russian gas and markets and by so doing the stability of the Eurozone itself.

 

If you don't believe me, listen to this recent lecture from the noted Professor of Economics James K. Galbraith who makes all these points with great eloquence and persuasiveness