Assault on Kiev: Russian helicopters swoop above Ukraine's capital

[tgw]

1 hour ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

In terms of sanctions on Russia they have been an unmitigated disaster for the West - forcing a pivotal movement of those markets and resources away from the west to new partners, accelerated the process towards consolidating and expanding their industrial and industrial military base, cementing an inviolable relationship with China and others that can prove an able and willing partner to replace tech know how that they lost with sanctions. What has happened we have sanctioned ourselves, threatened German's industrial base which was posited on cheap Russian gas and markets and by so doing the stability of the Eurozone itself.

 

If you don't believe me, listen to this recent lecture from the noted Professor of Economics James K. Galbraith who makes all these points with great eloquence and persuasiveness

 

 

 

yes, we know which playbook you use content from.

 

these are short term costs for a longer term investment into peace and security.

[Hummin]

Just now, tgw said:

 

yes, we know which playbook you use content from.

 

these are short term costs for a longer term investment into peace and security.

What did we learn from Japan after world war 2, Germany, just to mention a few countries who where punished, sanctioned? Embargoes doesnt work as we hoped it would do. Thats the reality, 

[beautifulthailand99]

28 minutes ago, tgw said:

 

yes, we know which playbook you use content from.

 

these are short term costs for a longer term investment into peace and security.

My play book as you call it is to want peace and an end to war by understanding the complexities of the situation and accepting certain geopolitical realities. We have had 2 years of Putin is dying , he will be replaced in a coup, Russia's economy is on its knees, the counteroffensive will work ,shovels and washing machines, Leopards ,Abrams, Challengers and the next Wunderwaffe are game changers and doubters have been called Putin shills , Kremlin mouthpieces, traitors and the like. The time has come to accept reality and begin a road to a messy peace, not more senseless war. I have been a pacifist by temperament all my life and if that makes me a useful idiot so be it.

 

The Pentagon's think tank the Rand Corporation has already war gamed a potential end to hostilities, Ukrainian watchers may find it of interest if they truly want to be informed. I take care with my posts and links hopefully to inform and educate, not to annoy others with different views if you choose to denigrate them rather than engage with their substance, then mai bpen rai.

 

https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html

 

 

President Biden has said that this war will end at the negotiating table.[74] But the administration has not yet made any moves to push the parties toward talks. Although it is far from certain that a change in U.S. policy can spark negotiations, adopting one or more of the policies described in this Perspective could make talks more likely. We identify reasons why Russia and Ukraine may have mutual optimism about war and pessimism about peace. The literature on war termination suggests that such perceptions can lead to protracted conflict. Therefore, we highlight four options the United States has for shifting these dynamics: clarifying its plans for future support to Ukraine, making commitments to Ukraine's security, issuing assurances regarding the country's neutrality, and setting conditions for sanctions relief for Russia.

A dramatic, overnight shift in U.S. policy is politically impossible—both domestically and with allies—and would be unwise in any case. But developing these instruments now and socializing them with Ukraine and with U.S. allies might help catalyze the eventual start of a process that could bring this war to a negotiated end in a time frame that would serve U.S. interests. The alternative is a long war that poses major challenges for the United States, Ukraine, and the rest of the world.

[Hummin]

Again spineless reaction with use of childish emotions from typewriter warriors without any sense of realistic view of what is really going on! No historical sense of what have been done before, and why the west using Ukraine, as the west have done for a long time with no what so ever self criticism. 

 

A few here should start educate themselves whats the real problem, and whats on stake here. 

 

As long russia manage to bond and create new and deeper relations with other countries around the world, using cheap oil and gas, giving aid to african countries, create bilateral deals, there is no way they are getting hurt by the sanctions.

 

So the long term affect some hope for, is in best case only short term.

 

India, China, Brazil, south Africa still have trade and good relations with russia just to mention a few. 

[beautifulthailand99]

4 minutes ago, Hummin said:

Again spineless reaction from typewriter warriors without any sense of realistic view of what is really going on! No historical sense of what have been done before, and why the west using Ukraine, as wenthe west have done for a long time with no what so ever self criticism. 

 

A few here should start educate themselves whats the real problem, and whats on stake here. 

 

As long russia manage to bond and creat new and deaper relations with other countries around the world, using cheap oil and gas, giving aid to african countries, create bilateral deals, there is no way they are getting hurt by the sanctions.

 

So the long term affect some hope for, is in best case only short term.

 

India, China, Brazil, south Africa still have trade and good relations with russia just to mention a few. 

These are the points that Professor Galbraith makes in that video, then you ally China is as a "partner without limits" as they call it then it's a perfect storm for the perceived limits of western power and influence. Kissinger no less before he died majored on that point

 

https://www.newsweek.com/kissinger-predicts-china-involvement-will-lead-ukraine-peace-talks-1798917

[Hummin]

3 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

These are the points that Professor Galbraith makes in that video, then you ally China is as a "partner without limits" as they call it then it's a perfect storm for the perceived limits of western power and influence.

Exactly, but is from the wrong source, not creditable 

[beautifulthailand99]

3 minutes ago, Hummin said:

Exactly, but is from the wrong source, not creditable 

He is a hugely respected Professor at the University of Texas and son of the famous economist JK Galbraith one of the most famous and distinguished economists of all time.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_K._Galbraith

[Hummin]

15 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

He is a hugely respected Professor at the University of Texas and son of the famous economist JK Galbraith one of the most famous and distinguished economists of all time.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_K._Galbraith

Not in here, where quite a few have their heads up where light never shine

[beautifulthailand99]

42 minutes ago, Hummin said:

Not in here, where quite a few have their heads up where light never shine

Since I was referencing Kissinger I did a dive and came up with this perceptive analysis. His final statement is coming chillingly true - the worlds' largest landmass and richest in natural resources allies themselves with the world's largest industrial giant. How do you think that pans out ? Add Putin's stooge Trump likely to come to power in the world's richest and most powerful country no wonder western leaders are panicking at the prospect. The Roman Empire died with decadence and the barbarians at the gate. As Marx said 'The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see' and "History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce" holds immense relevance in this context.

 

"Right off the top of my head, I cannot give a direct answer," Kissinger responded. "Because the war in Ukraine is on one level a war about the balance of power. But on another level, it has aspects of a civil war, and it combines a classically European type of international problem with a totally global one. When this war is over, the issue will be whether Russia achieves a coherent relationship with Europe -- which it has always sought -- or whether it will become an outpost of Asia at the border of Europe."

 

 

https://www.rferl.org/a/henry-kissinger-evolution-views-russia-ukraine-obituary/32708682.html

[Hummin]

10 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Since I was referencing Kissinger I did a dive and came up with this perceptive analysis. His final statement is coming chillingly true - the worlds' largest landmass and richest in natural resources allies themselves with the world's largest industrial giant. How do you think that pans out ? Add Putin's stooge Trump likely to come to power in the world's richest and most powerful country no wonder western leaders are panicking at the prospect. The Roman Empire died with decadence and the barbarians at the gate. As Marx said 'The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see' and "History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce" holds immense relevance in this context.

 

"Right off the top of my head, I cannot give a direct answer," Kissinger responded. "Because the war in Ukraine is on one level a war about the balance of power. But on another level, it has aspects of a civil war, and it combines a classically European type of international problem with a totally global one. When this war is over, the issue will be whether Russia achieves a coherent relationship with Europe -- which it has always sought -- or whether it will become an outpost of Asia at the border of Europe."

 

 

https://www.rferl.org/a/henry-kissinger-evolution-views-russia-ukraine-obituary/32708682.html

Second that, but empires rearly dies a quick death, so even it seems declining at the moment, Usa have to much dept to be trown over in any near future, but of course that depinding very much on Trump, and how far he is willing to push the limits of established allies and business partners. If he gets on his second term. Life will be easier and more predictable with Biden administration 

 

So far usa have the power of using their positions of being in great dept to Japan, UK and China and China use the same approach establishing their own dept dependency to other countries. 

 

It is a game, with to many factors involved and to many players. A chess game

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

Thanks Putin, NATO's most proficient recruiter.

 

Sweden formally joins Nato military alliance

Sweden has officially become the 32nd member of Nato after it completed its accession process in Washington.

The handover of documents took place at a ceremony two years after Sweden applied to join the military alliance following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said that "unity and solidarity" would be Sweden's "guiding lights".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68506223

[tgw]

11 hours ago, Hummin said:

What did we learn from Japan after world war 2, Germany, just to mention a few countries who where punished, sanctioned? Embargoes doesnt work as we hoped it would do. Thats the reality, 

 

"after world war 2"

I think you have your history mixed up. The embargo on Japan was before it started war against the US (and arguably led to it).

Regarding Germany, the US' Marshal plan put it on fast track to reconstruction and economic development.

 

End let's assume you meant "before WW"" - in this case, the embargo pushed Japan into war. Japan experienced very serious shortages of embargoed raw materials such as steel which crippled their arms industry.

The same applied for Germany during the war.

 

So Embargoes do work, but they aren't enough to induce political changes.

[Hummin]

6 hours ago, tgw said:

 

"after world war 2"

I think you have your history mixed up. The embargo on Japan was before it started war against the US (and arguably led to it).

Regarding Germany, the US' Marshal plan put it on fast track to reconstruction and economic development.

 

End let's assume you meant "before WW"" - in this case, the embargo pushed Japan into war. Japan experienced very serious shortages of embargoed raw materials such as steel which crippled their arms industry.

The same applied for Germany during the war.

 

So Embargoes do work, but they aren't enough to induce political changes.

As you cleverly asume, after every war conclusions is made and history is written by the winners. 

 

There is a long chain of happenings leading Japan out to the attack on Pearl Habor. 

 

Leading us back to why Putin so obviously Stupid and crazy underestimated an attack on Ukraine? And still there? What is his motive, and why he feel so threatened by the west that he felt he had to?

 

Saying Putin, but we have to remember it is not only Putins work, he got people around him, a government, a country. Russia atacked Ukraine

[tgw]

1 hour ago, Hummin said:

There is a long chain of happenings leading Japan out to the attack on Pearl Habor.

 

the chain of events is long, but the reason for them is simple: Japan was an aggressive, imperialist and expansionist power trying to take what wasn't theirs.

 

for Russia, it's a bit more complicated, but it boils down to Russia considering Ukraine to be their exclusive back yard. Yes, there are some historical reasons for this, but here too the real reason for the war is Putin's personality as a dictatorial murderer and him feeling personally threatened by the West who wants to remove dictators.

He has felt personally threatened almost right from the beginning because we knew about his shady and bloody tricks to subjugate Russians into voting him in for President.

[beautifulthailand99]

I was at a  birthday party in London last night for Thai friends and partners mostly Thais with just one other farang who was a partner actually of a very pretty Thai lady boy who is a long term friend of the missus. As he was nursing a drink quietly and not really joining in with the group 'madness' I approached him after about an hour to say hello. He introduced himself and said he was from Ukraine. I said I'm really sorry about what has happened to your country, it's a terrible tragedy. He never said mind but, thanks. We then spent an animated 30 minutes talking about Ukraine. He was in his early 30s and a draft dodger worked as a carpenter on building projects - he left shortly after the war began has refugee status under the Ukrainian settlement scheme. He never wanted to go back, indeed if he did now he would be drafted. He hated Putin, but he also hated Zelenskiy who he said was full of bs,a comedian and actor who had ruined the country. He had lost 2 childhood friends to the war and an Uncle.

 

I said it seems like a civil war that we should have stayed out of, and he animately said yes - he spoke Russian and said everybody did, and it was like England and Scotland being a war.

Not only that, but he said before the war the country was terrible, there was so much corruption and poverty most people he knew wanted to leave. But whatever they wanted, no-one but the mad people wanted this. When he said that, I said  "Azov" - he laughed and said yes, how do you know ? He reserved his greatest venom for America who he said had stirred this conflict and kept it running pumping arms and ammo into when they knew who Putin was and what he would do. I finished by saying I hope the war stops soon, and he said so do I we all do. We then toasted to peace and joined in the dancing and party spirit.

 

Now anecdote is not fact, but that chance meeting was very interesting and informative and confirmed me in my thinking that this war is not a black and white good vs evil, is a terrible tragedy for all concerned and that the West is as much an element of that tragedy as is Russia and the sooner the fighting stops the better for all concerned.

 

Хай живе мир

 

[tgw]

9 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

I was at a  birthday party in London last night for Thai friends and partners mostly Thais with just one other farang who was a partner actually of a very pretty Thai lady boy who is a long term friend of the missus. As he was nursing a drink quietly and not really joining in with the group 'madness' I approached him after about an hour to say hello. He introduced himself and said he was from Ukraine. I said I'm really sorry about what has happened to your country, it's a terrible tragedy. He never said mind but, thanks. We then spent an animated 30 minutes talking about Ukraine. He was in his early 30s and a draft dodger worked as a carpenter on building projects - he left shortly after the war began has refugee status under the Ukrainian settelement scheme. He never wanted to go back, indeed if he did now he would be drafted. He hated Putin, but he also hated Zelenskiy who he said was full of bs,a comedian and actor who had ruined the country. He had lost 2 childhood friends to the war and an Uncle . Not only that, but he said before the war the county was terrible, there was so much corruption and poverty most people he knew wanted to leave. But whatever they wanted no-one but the mad people wanted this. When he said that I said  "Azov" - he laughed and said yes, how do you know ? He reserved his greatest venom for America who he said had stirred this conflict and kept it running pumping arms and ammo into when they knew who Putin was and what he would do.

 

glad you had the opportunity to talk with a representative sample of the Ukrainian population.

[tgw]

11 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Not only that, but he said before the war the country was terrible, there was so much corruption and poverty

 

so different from Russia, right ?

Russia would have saved them from corruption and poverty.

[tgw]

12 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

the West is as much an element of that tragedy as is Russia

 

and there is that Ruzzian playbook again.

[beautifulthailand99]

22 minutes ago, tgw said:

 

glad you had the opportunity to talk with a representative sample of the Ukrainian population.

Even if he was just 20% of that demographic, then there's the tragedy. Like I said, he hated Putin and always had, and I was proud that my country had given him security and peace.And when the fighting stops, how do you stop the hatred and mistrust of citizen against citizen as to how 'Ukrainian' you really are ? A new Ukraine is better off without the troublesome Oblasts and Crimea rather like Eire was better off without the 6 counties. And those few pro-Russians in the rest of the country can move over there. Ukraine needs a Valera now not a  Michael Collins now and Zelenskiy is not it.

[Hummin]

21 minutes ago, tgw said:

 

the chain of events is long, but the reason for them is simple: Japan was an aggressive, imperialist and expansionist power trying to take what wasn't theirs.

 

for Russia, it's a bit more complicated, but it boils down to Russia considering Ukraine to be their exclusive back yard. Yes, there are some historical reasons for this, but here too the real reason for the war is Putin's personality as a dictatorial murderer and him feeling personally threatened by the West who wants to remove dictators.

He has felt personally threatened almost right from the beginning because we knew about his shady and bloody tricks to subjugate Russians into voting him in for President.

The natural chain of event for land and resources as well stay in power controling people, and give them reasons and a purpose to live. Something better, 

 

Simple as that, and at once an enemy take this away from them, there will be consequences. 

[Hummin]

Typewriter warriors use of emotions is impressive. Spineless action

[beautifulthailand99]

1 minute ago, tgw said:

 

so different from Russia, right ?

Russia would have saved them from corruption and poverty.

He said they were very similar. Of course, I would have never met a fighter as they are not allowed to leave any more, or are dead and as you say he may well not be representative. Hopefully our paths will cross again in the near future, his English was near perfect, so I suspect he is highly educated and by fleeing his has saved his lives and limbs. I would have done the same if I was in his shoes.

[beautifulthailand99]

5 minutes ago, tgw said:

 

and there is that Ruzzian playbook again.

For the avoidance of doubt, all views are my own and I have no time for the autocratic Putin or any other leader that oppresses their people of whatever stripe and have a strongly held belief that all wars create more problems than they solve. However, that is off-topic, so I will desist.

[Mike Lister]

Sorry, have to draw the line somewhere amd a Russian propaganda video is the wrong side of the line.

[beautifulthailand99]

Just now, Mike Lister said:

Sorry, have to draw the line somewhere amd a Russian propaganda video is the wrong side of the line.

No problem, totally understood. My context was to draw attention to the absurdity of the Russian information space, but that nuance may have been lost on some, and of course you have to see the bigger picture.

[kwonitoy]

Keep bombing the refineries, keep sinking ships, keep downing planes

The invaders country is slowly being hollowed out.

No one saw the Soviet Union collapse coming and I think the next one will be the same

[kwonitoy]

 

 

Good news if verified, the A-50 fleet is being degraded bit by bit, not many left now

[Mavideol]

Ukraine-Russia war live: Terror threat emerges in Moscow as Putin warns of full-scale war in Europe

https://au.yahoo.com/news/russia-ukraine-war-live-putin-092003533.html

[Mavideol]

Indians tricked by promise of work in Russia instead die fighting in Ukraine, investigators say

https://au.yahoo.com/news/indians-tricked-promise-russia-instead-115900443.html

[ExpatOilWorker]

30 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

Ukraine-Russia war live: Terror threat emerges in Moscow as Putin warns of full-scale war in Europe

https://au.yahoo.com/news/russia-ukraine-war-live-putin-092003533.html

Next weekend's election in Russia should be interesting.

In 2022 Ukriane was one day off Putin's birthday when they blew the Crimea bridge 🌉 up with the truck bomb.