Thailand’s daily COVID-19 cases forecast to reach 40,000-50,000 in mid-April

[snoop1130]

 

Thailand’s daily COVID-19 cases, confirmed by RT-PCR tests, are forecast by the Diseases Control Department to reach 40,000-50,000 cases in mid-April and may reach 100,000 if existing restrictions are further eased, according to the Centre for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) today (Thursday).

 

Strict compliance with the requirements of Thailand’s COVID-19 “Level 4 Alert”, which allows stricter restrictions on restaurant dining, large gatherings, bars, pubs and karaoke joints, may limit the peak to about 20,000 cases a day, said the department. Level 5 is the highest which can involve imposing a curfew.

 

Thailand’s daily COVID-19 cases today, confirmed by RT-PCR tests, are 23,618, a drop from the record high reported on Saturday of 25,615. A sizeable group of 42,138 people, however, tested positive using rapid antigen tests over the past 24 hours, a new high.

 

Full Story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thailands-daily-covid-19-cases-forecast-to-reach-40000-50000-in-mid-april/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2022-03-03

 

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[ThailandRyan]

Seems we are already there with over 40k positive ATK tests alone today.......

[Snig27]

To be fair, every prediction made by this lot over the past two years seems to have been pulled out of the air and never came to be. Either way, the panic these people would happily provoke is unlikely to happen as most people seem to have a ''so what" attitude to this stuff now as they carry on. 

I guess they are trying to justify their jobs.

[Snig27]

4 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Seems we are already there with over 40k positive ATK tests alone today.......

Our housekeeper was one of those (she has had the past two weeks off) and today two doctors and a policeman turned up at her apartment and literally padlocked the door and said she was now in "home isolation". They said her building supervisor can get food for her and the two kids (9 and 12) she has with her but nobody can leave until 10 days after a negative result.

Why would anyone tell the authorities? 

[Mac Mickmanus]

Why is Covid still such a big issue in Thailand ?

Here in the U.K Covid has finished and theres no restrictions or mass testing or anything and everythings back to normal .

[ukrules]

7 minutes ago, Snig27 said:

Our housekeeper was one of those (she has had the past two weeks off) and today two doctors and a policeman turned up at her apartment and literally padlocked the door and said she was now in "home isolation". They said her building supervisor can get food for her and the two kids (9 and 12) she has with her but nobody can leave until 10 days after a negative result.

Why would anyone tell the authorities? 

Could you perhaps do me a favour and take a photo of the locked down apartment for us....thanks

[nattaya09]

The CDC did a seroprevalence survey for the period Feb 2020 -Sept 2021 and estimated that cases were undercounted by a factor of 4. The US was doing a lot more testing than Thailand during that time and it was months before the more transmissible Omicron. My guess is that Thailand easily has over 100K cases a day now.

[DoctorB]

4 hours ago, Snig27 said:

Our housekeeper was one of those (she has had the past two weeks off) and today two doctors and a policeman turned up at her apartment and literally padlocked the door and said she was now in "home isolation". They said her building supervisor can get food for her and the two kids (9 and 12) she has with her but nobody can leave until 10 days after a negative result.

Why would anyone tell the authorities? 

Why would you even get tested? Go to hospital if you are in serious medical distress, otherwise stay home and keep your head down until you feel better.

[internationalism]

I think they are warming up to seriously curtail or postpone songkran, exactly as they did a year and 2 years ago. 
better to make this decision now, before people start preparing their journey, with bus and train tickets going on sale 30 days in advance. 
Air travel would be always on a small scale and with rules much easier imposed

[ikke1959]

Positive ATK tests are mostly correct as negative results could be false.. So positive ATK tests of yesterday were 42.000 and with 23.000 PCR tests there were 65.000 positive tests... What do they talk about 40-50 k in the next month? That will never happen because all figures ow are already manipulated and it will be going on. Unless the death toll peaks numbers will still be "under control".

 

[jacko45k]

11 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Seems we are already there with over 40k positive ATK tests alone today.......

I thought the declared new cases was 23,000..... anxiously watching numbers to see them peak and roll off as in other omicron infected countries. 

[TooMuchTime]

What will the death rate be?

 

Will the average age of death WITH covid end up being greater than average age of death from all causes?

 

People still fear mongering about cases?  That is so 2020.

Edited March 3, 2022 by TooMuchTime

[hotchilli]

12 hours ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

Why is Covid still such a big issue in Thailand ?

Here in the U.K Covid has finished and theres no restrictions or mass testing or anything and everythings back to normal .

Because Thailand is Thailand and UK is UK...

different country, different government, different priorities.

[RichardColeman]

53 minutes ago, TooMuchTime said:

Will the average age of death WITH covid end up being greater than average age of death from all causes?

Yes, that's the completely nutty thing about the UK and the world's response. average age of death older than life expectancy !

 

However, the 2.5 million thais that die every century on the roads wont be above life expectancy average !

[jacko45k]

4 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

Because Thailand is Thailand and UK is UK...

different country, different government, different priorities.

And at a different stage of Covid, with currently rising numbers.....

[mtls2005]

12 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

are forecast by the Diseases Control Department to reach 40,000-50,000 cases in mid-April and may reach 100,000

I don't think they could do enough PCR tests to reach 100,000? They'd have to do at least 300,000 test per day given the current PCR positivity rate.

 

And given that the PCR+ATK figure was ~ 65,500 yesterday, 100,000 combined seems like an achievable target for April?

 

 (I'm surprised they're reporting the ATK figure.)

 

 

[Scott]

A post making unsubstantiated claims has been removed along with replies.  

 

[jacko45k]

1 hour ago, TooMuchTime said:

Will the average age of death WITH covid end up being greater than average age of death from all causes?

Since the latter includes infant mortality and road accidents that would not be mathematically unlikely!

[Pattaya Spotter]

Think of it as 40-50k Covid natural immunity vaccinations per day.

[JonnyF]

Mid April? An interesting choice of date.

 

More ground work for cancelling Songkran unless we're good little comrades. Reminds me of my parents threatening Santa wouldn't come when I was misbehaving as a kid. This paternalistic attitude from a government that stole power down the barrel of a gun is really galling.

[brommers]

The DDC\CCSA are simply trying to create a fog of numbers that they can use to continue their stranglehold on Thai people. In Chiang Mai the current figures show that Covid has a lower rate of morbidity\mortality than does common influenza, and so the authorities will cease to issue daily numbers & only report every two weeks. The central government is terrified of losing its controls on the population because they know that very soon there will be a return to political demonstrations. So they will hide behind the health issue until there is the inevitable run up to a greatly needed election.

[rott]

13 hours ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

Why is Covid still such a big issue in Thailand ?

Here in the U.K Covid has finished and theres no restrictions or mass testing or anything and everythings back to normal .

No need to ask why you don't go home then is there.?

 

Well someone had to say it. 

 

And you might also have asked why the UK had so many deaths in the early stages and Thailand had so few. I'm sure there's a logical answer somewhere. 

Edited March 4, 2022 by rott

[swm59nj]

It’s all speculation unfortunately.  Yesterday I spoke with my ENT doctor at Bumrungard.  She said this Covid peak here should drop in a few weeks.  Like it did in the USA recently.  I hope it’s true.  But unfortunately it’s speculation also.  

[Will B Good]

Mmmm...doesn't quite tally with the MoH prediction that numbers would decline rapidly after Feb 28......odd! 

[rabang]

14 hours ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

Why is Covid still such a big issue in Thailand ?

Here in the U.K Covid has finished and theres no restrictions or mass testing or anything and everythings back to normal .

Asia is seeing the fruits of their elimination strategy now. South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong recording record number of deaths (might be partly due to the virus circulating in hospitals among the frail and elderly). In short they are just some months or a year behind with their curves. This epidemic will follow its natural course eventually and it will take its time. China must be horrified.

Edited March 4, 2022 by rabang

[phukettrader]

More meaningless numbers. Cases are irrelevant. The only important numbers are those seriously ill in hospital and deaths FROM Covid, not WITH Covid. The rest of the world seems to have now forgotten COVID and are now using a war to scare people. Please Thailand, let's move on.