Prolonged Ukraine war to see Thai inflation at 6.3%, a stalled economy and a possible downgrade

[ThailandRyan]

6 minutes ago, TheScience said:

Oooh wooow...oooooh...

I picture a pudgy child with it's face mashed against a store window looking at baked goods

 

*It's you're or you are.

 

Where in what I had written did I state that I believe in worldwide conspiracy?

 

The world is absolutely flooded with worthless money. Look at Japan in just the last week the yen hit record lows.

 

China has been strategically hoarding oil, working with Russia and Iran. China's rare earth minerals are being weaponized.

 

Saudi and most of UAE are turning backflips of joy over high oil prices. The oil crises (this particular one) could easily be averted by flipping back on EU nuclear, drilling in US and CA , sorting out longstanding and childish disputes with Venezuela.

 

Everywhere in the west I see supply chain stupidity. It was always about profit and now the chain has fallen apart.

 

Stupid de facto proxy war with Russia. The west understood what Russia was providing but decided to jump in the middle of a largely internal affair. This could be seen in 2014 loss if Crimea and back to Oblahma administration.

 

It's not a conspiracy per SE but rather all these parties leveraging their commodities when the west is weak.

 

We can also blame the Green (bowel) movement as well. Forced insistence on expensive, tenuous technologies.

 

More like a perfect storm - of stupidity.

You wrote that  "Prices are rising and Fiat Currency is worthless".  Based upon that and sorry if I misinterpreted you, but it is a line taken straight from the folks who believe in the great reset.  I do apologize as that was not your intent.  Your talking more about Hyperinflation etc.....

https://yourinvestingfuture.com/hyperinflation-when-fiat-currencies-are-worthless/

 

https://medium.com/metalstream/the-great-reset-the-death-of-currency-how-will-you-survive-it-96d355c0b88e

[sandyf]

2 hours ago, JimHuaHin said:

6.3% inflation?   Surely a typo.  It is probably closer to 16.3%.

A predicted 6.3%, if prolonged.

The UK is already at 6.1% and rising, cost of living is now recognised as a crisis.

Energy bills jumped an average of £700 yesterday, I pay about two thirds of that increase for a year.

Of course Thailand's problems have to be much worse than anyone else's.

[Enoon]

2 hours ago, John Drake said:

People are likely to be familiar with the Schlieffen Plan but may not be aware of France's Plan XVII. Had both plans played out as intended, the Germans would have wheeled through Belgium and northern France until occupying Paris. Meanwhile, to the south, the French would have plowed through Luxembourg and the Saarland on their way to Berlin. Wha appened?

The Germans modified the original Schlieffen plan, causing it to fail.

 

The French stuck to Plan 17 in its original form, which also failed..........because it was a bad plan, based on wrong assumptions about the strength of the offensive being inherently superior to that of the defensive.

 

 

 

 

[Adumbration]

4 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Thailand is not as you call it a third world country, they are a developing nation who has more millionaires and billionaires than some bigger economy countries. 

 



Blah, blah,blah....

 

A country moves out of third world status by developing the size of its middle class.  There is no other valid metric.

 

For more than a decade the middle class in Thailand (and many other countries for that matter) has been shrinking....rapidly.

 

Yes there a lots of millionaires and billionaires in Thailand.  Put that is par for the course in a third world nation.  They are rich because they are stripping out the middle class and feeding on the impoverished.

 

Wealth disparity anyone?

[Adumbration]

4 hours ago, Jingthing said:

That's a passe label and doesn't really describe Thailand even if it wasn't.

Passe....pfft...

 

I don't endeavor to communicate with words that are fashionable.  I just use words that are easy to understand and fit for purpose.

 

I will leave fashion to the imbeciles who think it is important.

[Adumbration]

4 hours ago, simple1 said:

Personally I'm not so sure your opinion holds up. The rouble has aready recovered fom the 30% dip after the invasion commenced. EU countries are paying one billion dollars a day for Russian energy. US is unable to fulfill sufficeint EU energy if needs to replace Russian supply.

 

Yeah most posters here ridiculed me when I told them I was buying the rouble.  I also read last night that Putin is demanding that all Russian gas be paid for in rouble.  Let's see how that pans out.

[tomster]

2 hours ago, TheScience said:

But the war in Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Syria and instability in three dozens countries has had zero bearing.

 

How patently absurd.

 

These shortages are all engineered.

 

Prices are rising because fiat currency is worthless.

First post in the thread so far that has proper insight. We are at the end of the USA being the leader of the "free World" - something is going to replace the dollar shortly and Russia knows this - they can't lose.

[ThailandRyan]

22 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Yeah most posters here ridiculed me when I told them I was buying the rouble.  I also read last night that Putin is demanding that all Russian gas be paid for in rouble.  Let's see how that pans out.

He backed out and they can continue paying how they were before....your not looking at the news are you....the rouble has not risen, look at the link I posted above.

[ThailandRyan]

33 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Blah, blah,blah....

 

A country moves out of third world status by developing the size of its middle class.  There is no other valid metric.

 

For more than a decade the middle class in Thailand (and many other countries for that matter) has been shrinking....rapidly.

 

Yes there a lots of millionaires and billionaires in Thailand.  Put that is par for the course in a third world nation.  They are rich because they are stripping out the middle class and feeding on the impoverished.

 

Wealth disparity anyone?

You sure don't pay attention now do you. Look at current affairs and news you might see your views are not correct.

[John Drake]

2 hours ago, Enoon said:

The French stuck to Plan 17 in its original form, which also failed..........because it was a bad plan, based on wrong

But still better than Plan XVI.

[Jingthing]

2 hours ago, Adumbration said:

Passe....pfft...

 

I don't endeavor to communicate with words that are fashionable.  I just use words that are easy to understand and fit for purpose.

 

I will leave fashion to the imbeciles who think it is important.

Oh Mary, spare us.

[Mike Teavee]

16 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Oh Mary, spare us.

I'm not sure my mum can help you but why are you bringing her into this!!!

 

Lol, obviously I'm joking & posting this as my Mum's name is "Mary" (& from a very Catholic Family) but it gets worse if you knew her full name... 

 

Beware The Stare of Mary Shaw... 

https://www.deviantart.com/crazysis64/journal/Mary-Shaw-Poem-from-Dead-Silance-218055158

 

My (Thai) GF is terrified of my mum after watching those movies ???? 

 

Beware JingThing... ???? Beware ???? 

 

 

 

 

[BusyB]

6 hours ago, simple1 said:

Personally I'm not so sure your opinion holds up. The rouble has aready recovered fom the 30% dip after the invasion commenced. EU countries are paying one billion dollars a day for Russian energy. US is unable to fulfill sufficeint EU energy if needs to replace Russian supply.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/28/us-eu-gas-deal-wont-make-up-shortfall-from-russia-dan-brouillette.html

 

Trade compromises go on during conflict - not that many countries are willing for damage to their economy, self interest being a driving factor. Perhaps I'm incorrect, but believe it's too early to make any medium term calls.

That's all true. But Germany and others are working very hard to ensure we don't have to buy any more Russian gas by end of 2024. Oil and coal even earlier. There are things underway which will hit hard. And most here are willing to tighten belts as well. We know what's at stake.

Eventually after the war I have no doubt some gas will be bought. We couldn't and shouldn't isolate it completely. Don't forget Versailles. But Russia is up the creek now. It is, as Barack Obama said, a mid-sized regional power. GDP is slightly larger than Italy's and about 2/3 of Germany's. 40% of that comes from raw materials sales, primarily via Gazprom. They're just proving that their military leadership and rank and file isn't up to much at all. Putin won't risk a sideways glance at a NATO country after this debacle. And China won't let him I'm sure.

Putin has just turned his 'great' country into a Chinese vassal. A deal which the Chinese are quietly closing on. Very much like Mussolini became Hitler's poodle after his unforced errors. The only reason Russia is considered a 'superpower' is because it has the largest stock of nuclear bombs in the world.

And as an afterthought: there is no way Russia can divert enough gas to China to make up for the loss in EU sales. The infrastructure simply isn't there. The last I looked they had one smallish gauge pipeline which had barely crossed the border towards Beijing. That was about 2-3 years ago.

The sad thing is that wars are won in the end by the side with the largest GDP (not great battles as you might think) - and while Russia has some $1.8tn, Ukraine has $153bn GDP/p.a..

 

[spidermike007]

Blame anything but the real cause. Ukraine is but one factor. The Prayuth decimation of the economy is the greatest factor. The lack of courage over the tourism restrictions is another. 

 

Be honest, for once in your lives. Children blame. Adults man up. 

[BKKTRAVELER]

11 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

If I lost 70% of my money but then the next year gained 10% back and so on the next year I am still down 50% when I look at the totality

You'd be much lower than 50% of your original capital unfortunately.

 

Lose 70%. Left 30%.

 

Gain 10% of the current capital the next year: 33% of your original capital.

 

The next year with 10% gain: 36.3% from original capital.

 

Truth is, Thailand is going to create a bigger gap between classes.

 

Riche people getting richer and poor people getting... well... you know.

[KhaoYai]

12 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Over the last four decades, the country has moved from a low-income to an upper-income country by making substantial progress in social and economic development.

Roughly translated for us everyday folk - the rich got richer whilst the poor got poorer. Yes, those who are able have done reasonably well but social mobility for the masses is nigh on impossible. Believe it or not, there is still a substantial portion of the working population who earn less than 10,000 per month.

 

Whenever I read these studies/predictions/forecasts I have to ask the question, in a country where a large proportion of the population don't pay tax or social security so are therefore unrecorded, where do they get their figures from?

 

Its true that the country is (was) developing but like so many other countries, real world, social polarisation is growing. It must also be remembered that it is the lowest paid in Thailand who often have to support aging parents - further restricting their ability to improve their lives.  Their 'middle class' counterparts are likely to come from a 'middle class' background and as such, their parents are less likely to need support.

 

It is also, precisely this 'lower' portion of the employed population that have been more exposed to the economic devastation caused by the Covid 19 Pandemic - the tourist and hospitality industries are famous for low pay.

[Scott]

Racist post reported and removed. 

 

[simple1]

9 hours ago, BusyB said:

That's all true. But Germany and others are working very hard to ensure we don't have to buy any more Russian gas by end of 2024. Oil and coal even earlier. There are things underway which will hit hard. And most here are willing to tighten belts as well. We know what's at stake.

Eventually after the war I have no doubt some gas will be bought. We couldn't and shouldn't isolate it completely. Don't forget Versailles. But Russia is up the creek now. It is, as Barack Obama said, a mid-sized regional power. GDP is slightly larger than Italy's and about 2/3 of Germany's. 40% of that comes from raw materials sales, primarily via Gazprom. They're just proving that their military leadership and rank and file isn't up to much at all. Putin won't risk a sideways glance at a NATO country after this debacle. And China won't let him I'm sure.

Putin has just turned his 'great' country into a Chinese vassal. A deal which the Chinese are quietly closing on. Very much like Mussolini became Hitler's poodle after his unforced errors. The only reason Russia is considered a 'superpower' is because it has the largest stock of nuclear bombs in the world.

And as an afterthought: there is no way Russia can divert enough gas to China to make up for the loss in EU sales. The infrastructure simply isn't there. The last I looked they had one smallish gauge pipeline which had barely crossed the border towards Beijing. That was about 2-3 years ago.

The sad thing is that wars are won in the end by the side with the largest GDP (not great battles as you might think) - and while Russia has some $1.8tn, Ukraine has $153bn GDP/p.a..

 

As a matter of detail, PRC recently signed another energy deal with Russia, which includes another pipeline. From memory the orginal deal a few myears back was around $400 billion.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-russia-china-agree-30-year-gas-deal-using-new-pipeline-source-2022-02-04/

[kimamey]

18 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

The guy seems to missing the huge point that the West and other countries are not going to forgive and forget Russia's invasion and murder of thousands of Europeans and go back to normal or as before. The Russian economy will be hit for decades - especially if the Ukranians want justifiable reparations. Steps have now been made to isolate the Russian economy and buy elsewhere, that is ongoing and will NOT be reversed. The ending of the war probably wont help Russia in the slightest economically, they are going to be paying war debt for decades and isolation will stay until it is all paid.. 

I hope you're right but I can see some nations taking a 'pragmatic' approach to ease the financial effect on their country and boost their political standing and electoral chances. 

[RichardColeman]

19 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

o wit, If I lost 70% of my money but then the next year gained 10% back and so on the next year I am still down 50% when I look at the totality, my money did not grow 20% it just recovered some of the losses. 

That's why you always invest in property ! Any dip is very temporary and pretty guaranteed investment in the long run

[overherebc]

20 hours ago, sammieuk1 said:

All good news for the Teflon Baht so only the poor will be affected have a look again next year ????

Yep, next week it will be 28/29 to the dollar. ????????

[trainman34014]

On 4/2/2022 at 4:01 PM, Excel said:

Or possibly where is it ?

Moved to the British Virgin Islands....for safe keeping you understand !

[Excel]

18 minutes ago, trainman34014 said:

Moved to the British Virgin Islands....for safe keeping you understand !

Possibly but somewhere in Europe is my guess for easier spending !!!

[metisdead]

Some off topic posts and replies have been removed.

[Airalee]

On 4/2/2022 at 6:00 PM, ThailandRyan said:

the rouble has not risen,

Actually, it has.

 

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=1M
 

 

[ThailandRyan]

6 minutes ago, Airalee said:

Actually, it has.

 

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=1M
 

 

Ok it bumped up a tad, but not regaining the drop it took since the sanctions went into effect. from 150 down to below 83 then back up to 90 and back down to the low 80's in the past day...... as your graph shows is not much of a rise let alone the 30% that the poster I responded to indicated.....

[Airalee]

5 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Ok it bumped up a tad, but not regaining the drop it took since the sanctions went into effect. from 150 down to below 83 then back up to 90 and back down to the low 80's in the past day...... as your graph shows is not much of a rise let alone the 30% that the poster I responded to indicated.....

A “tad”?  Last year it was 73ish to the USD.  Lost about 1/2 and went to 150 less than a month ago.  Now it’s back at 85.

 

So, it’s actually more than a 30% rise off the lows…in fact, it’s close to a double.  Here’s the inverse chart to show it a little more clearly.

 

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=1M
 

 

[zzaa09]

Welcome to the Other World Order.

Little did you know....

[ThailandRyan]

25 minutes ago, Airalee said:

A “tad”?  Last year it was 73ish to the USD.  Lost about 1/2 and went to 150 less than a month ago.  Now it’s back at 85.

 

So, it’s actually more than a 30% rise off the lows…in fact, it’s close to a double.  Here’s the inverse chart to show it a little more clearly.

 

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=1M
 

 

Now your mixing apples and oranges. The discussion is since the war began not one year ago. Try and stay on track 

[Airalee]

6 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Now your mixing apples and oranges. The discussion is since the war began not one year ago. Try and stay on track 

You are the one who seems to be having a problem with math.  When the Ruble goes from 150 to 85, that is a large strengthening.  Much more than 30%.  It’s really quite simple.  The “dip” in the ruble is not a 1 day event but rather an ongoing issue.  It reached a bottom and now has recovered most of its value.