15 minutes ago, Pib said:

Not really a game change....just a good improvement in BYD Blade Battery capacity of approx 27%.   And that 1000km estimate is based on CLTC range estimation without saying how big the KWH battery size would need to be in a certain car model.  CLTC ranges are optimistic....even more optimistic than the optimistic NEDC estimate.   

The BYD 1,000 km estimate may be a bit optimistic but Nio have apparently demonstrated a battery with an actual 1,000 km range already.

 

A Chinese EV company developed a battery with a 1,000km range — and its CEO tested it out on a 14-hour livestream

 

Quote

CEO William Li put it to the test by livestreaming a 14-hour roadtrip between two Chinese cities. He managed to travel 1,044km without recharging and finished with 3% battery charge still remaining.

 

Nio operates with a somewhat different battery usage model to most companies, based on battery swapping, but this test seems to show that 1,000 km battery technology is already available, regardless.

1 hour ago, marino28 said:

https://electrek.co/2024/04/08/byd-launch-next-gen-ev-battery-more-range-lower-price/

 

this one is a game changer. 
if really in the near future the range go up do 1000km and the price will be even more cheap than now. I think I will buy one ev.

 

 

I expect the models B1,300,000 will have the larger long range batteries

Anything below B1,100,000 will have the lower range  batteries

27 minutes ago, Pib said:

 

Not really a game change....just a good improvement in BYD Blade Battery capacity of approx 27%.   And that 1000km estimate is based on CLTC range estimation without saying how big the KWH battery size would need to be in a certain car model.  CLTC ranges are optimistic....even more optimistic than the optimistic NEDC estimate.   

 

For example, a BYD Atto 3 Extended range with 60.5KWH Blade Battery has a CLTC range of 510Km, a  NEDC of 480Km, and a WLTP of 420Km.     Say the the Atto 3 battery pack physical sized remained the same but its Gen 1 Blade Battery cells were replaced with this new Gen 2 cell with 27% more capacity it would now have around 77KWH capacity with a CLTC range of around 650Km, NEDC of 610, and WLTP of 535Km.

let’a wait for the details but as far as I understand , there will be bigger range and cheaper price. 
 

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/02/26/catl-byd-to-slash-battery-prices-by-50-in-2024-boom-evs-win/

 

probably at the end of 2024/ begins of 2025 will be possible to have a battery with a 1000km for the price of a 500km range battery in 2023 

12 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

The BYD 1,000 km estimate may be a bit optimistic but Nio have apparently demonstrated a battery with an actual 1,000 km range already.

 

A Chinese EV company developed a battery with a 1,000km range — and its CEO tested it out on a 14-hour livestream

 

 

Nio operates with a somewhat different battery usage model to most companies, based on battery swapping, but this test seems to show that 1,000 km battery technology is already available, regardless.

Yea...there are EVs that can go 1000Km right now like the NIO ET7 that did the 1000Km run which had a 150KWH battery which is like 2 to 2.5 times the capacity of a typical EV right now.    But that big capacity 150KWH battery surely comes at a high price right now.

 

EV battery pack capacity will continue to increase with little to no increase in physical size of battery pack but I think it will be done in small steps instead of like all of a sudden in just a few years all new EVs have twice their current 2024 year range.

 

There is so much battery hype right now....like how Toyota has been promising a solid state battery for years and years and years already that will propel it past Tesla.  That Toyota solid state battery is still years away "if", repeat if Toyota ever decides to go the EV way which they don't seem to be really interested in doing.

6 minutes ago, marino28 said:

let’a wait for the details but as far as I understand , there will be bigger range and cheaper price. 
 

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/02/26/catl-byd-to-slash-battery-prices-by-50-in-2024-boom-evs-win/

 

probably at the end of 2024/ begins of 2025 will be possible to have a battery with a 1000km for the price of a 500km range battery in 2023 

50% price reduction is wholesale this is battery  manufacturers  selling  100,000 batteries  selling to ev  manufacturers

by the time reduction reaches end customer maybe 10-20% reduction

If EV battery capacity say increases by 50% with a corresponding drop in price of around 50% over the next few years it will cause EV sales to sky rocket and ICEV sales to descend very significantly.  Heck, Toyota and Honda will even have to start producing EVs unless they want to fade away while mumbling "ICEV Forever!!!"

 

And assuming more people get comfortable with EV technology (it takes time & learning) and the charging infrastructure continues to improve I think EV sales will continue to grow at a very healthy pace.  

29 minutes ago, Pib said:

If EV battery capacity say increases by 50% with a corresponding drop in price of around 50% over the next few years it will cause EV sales to sky rocket and ICEV sales to descend very significantly.  Heck, Toyota and Honda will even have to start producing EVs unless they want to fade away while mumbling "ICEV Forever!!!"

 

And assuming more people get comfortable with EV technology (it takes time & learning) and the charging infrastructure continues to improve I think EV sales will continue to grow at a very healthy pace.  

Its catch 22 if  a 2025 Atto3 model came out with a 50% increase in battery size and a 50% price reduction it would literally would assign a junk status value on all existing Atto 3 on the road

Most of the EV brands are complaining that with existing price war their margins are being cut to the bone

I suspect increase in battery range will only come to new models and they will be priced on the road without any further discounts

 

 

 

Durn near all of the potentially "big" jumps in battery capacity deal with "solid state" battery technology where basically the gooey liquid electrolyte in the battery is replaced with a "solid" electrolyte.    Now of course it more technical than just switching from a liquid to solid electrolyte but that's the foundation.  Below are a couple of good articles to help explain solid state batteries in layman terms, challenges yet to overcome, etc.   Solid state batteries appear to be the next generation of batteries....will definitely increase EV range by a lot.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2398896-what-are-solid-state-batteries-and-why-do-we-need-them/

https://www.samsungsdi.com/column/technology/detail/56462.html?listType=gallery'

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/things-know-solid-state-batteries-vijay-tharad-yfv1c

 

BYD's next-generation DM hybrid system is expected to give the vehicle a combined range of nearly 2,000 kilometers, while the new e-Platform 4.0 will have a higher level of integration and is expected to further reduce costs, according to local media.

https://cnevpost.com/2024/03/11/byd-to-launch-next-gen-phev-bev-platforms-further-offensive-petrol-cars/

BYD launches Yuan Plus (ATTO 3), a new Honor Edition model in China, price reduced from the previous model to only 600,000 baht.

https://carnewschina.com/2024/03/04/2024-byd-yuan-plus-launched-2200-usd-cheaper-than-before/

4 hours ago, Pib said:

BYD Atto 3 Extended range with 60.5KWH Blade Battery has a CLTC range of 510Km, a  NEDC of 480Km, and a WLTP of 420Km.

Speed kills, but luckily 😉 no lives were lost and only the EV's range was killed at m highway speed.

The above 420 km range is reduced to 163 km at a constant 120 km/h.

Both the Atto 3 and Seal 🦭 take a massive +60% reduction in range at speed.

Not sure if the ORA funky cat is the same model as the good cat, but it is doing surprisingly well for it's fairly poor aerodynamic.

 

1 minute ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Speed kills, but luckily 😉 no lives were lost and only the EV's range was killed at m highway speed.

The above 420 km range is reduced to 163 km at a constant 120 km/h.

Both the Atto 3 and Seal 🦭 take a massive +60% reduction in range at speed.

Not sure if the ORA funky cat is the same model as the good cat, but it is doing surprisingly well for it's fairly poor aerodynamic.

 

Does this mean you now have to look at the speedo and the battery gauge when on a trip, and adjust accordingly....?

5 minutes ago, transam said:

Does this mean you now have to look at the speedo and the battery gauge when on a trip, and adjust accordingly....?

 

no  😔

I drive my Seal very hard, the range drops from 580km to about 450km if I hammer it.

 

I have had similar or worse consumption issues with ICE cars, especially if they had turbos.

 

The accelerator pedal is an on/off switch isn’t it?

3 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Speed kills, but luckily 😉 no lives were lost and only the EV's range was killed at m highway speed.

The above 420 km range is reduced to 163 km at a constant 120 km/h.

Both the Atto 3 and Seal 🦭 take a massive +60% reduction in range at speed.

Not sure if the ORA funky cat is the same model as the good cat, but it is doing surprisingly well for it's fairly poor aerodynamic.

 

Don't know about rest of the cars, or even the MG ZS models they test.  This is our experience

with the 2022 MG ZS.  Actually and fairly consistent kms on full charge.  WLTP % deviation is

actually spot of for highway driving, and local, +12%, actually wee bit more.

 

Don't know what there test parameters are, but local is mixed 30-60-90 kph

Highway is 90 kph, over 3+ hours, with average speed 80 kph, if not too much cross traffic, or slow truck traffic.

 

They did get the one stat correct, the newer 72.6kWh LR model, also released 2022, I think, and -0- WLTP % deviation.

 

 

 

Expect the price war to continue in Thailand. China has a (over)-supply problem.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/496f3bfa-9f0c-4145-9024-188572a280fd

Imported vehicles are piling up at European ports, turning them into “car parks” as automakers and distributors struggle with a slowdown in sales and logistical bottlenecks including the lack of truck drivers.

2 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Expect the price war to continue in Thailand. China has a (over)-supply problem.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/496f3bfa-9f0c-4145-9024-188572a280fd

Imported vehicles are piling up at European ports, turning them into “car parks” as automakers and distributors struggle with a slowdown in sales and logistical bottlenecks including the lack of truck drivers.

I don't, as they're as low as they are going to get.  Make a decent enough profit on the export trade.   Make up for no or low profits as they develop market share.   They'll start being profitable, or more so, if not already, once the cost of batteries come down on their side.   Not passing on the savings, keeping as profits, to make up for the loss of, or little profits they make now.

 

Will offer better specs & range for about the same price as present models, after initial offerings, and for the same price or cheaper than comparable ICEV.   

 

Thus people will finally realize the value and advantages of EV.  They can have a better performing vehicle, that cost less to operate, and will last longer with less maintenance hassles.

 

It will eventually sink in, as they see their neighbors with better performing, stylish EV, saving money on simply petrol cost as it continues to rise, while taking their ICEV in for constant oil changes & tune ups, along with repairs, as some of the 2000 ish parts malfunction.

 

Eventually pulling the heads out of their A$$ ...

... oops, I mean sand 

13 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

18 hours ago, Pib said:

BYD Atto 3 Extended range with 60.5KWH Blade Battery has a CLTC range of 510Km, a  NEDC of 480Km, and a WLTP of 420Km.

Speed kills, but luckily 😉 no lives were lost and only the EV's range was killed at m highway speed.

The above 420 km range is reduced to 163 km at a constant 120 km/h.

Both the Atto 3 and Seal 🦭 take a massive +60% reduction in range at speed.

Not sure if the ORA funky cat is the same model as the good cat, but it is doing surprisingly well for it's fairly poor aerodynamic.

 

I must have got an extra special Atto then, because I get at least 300 km range at 120 kmh (+), BKK-Jomtien on a regular basis on Highway 7. The 'real time' power usage goes up to around 18-20 kw/100 km.

 

Where were those tests done? In the Arctic?

15 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

I don't, as they're as low as they are going to get.  Make a decent enough profit on the export trade.   Make up for no or low profits as they develop market share.   They'll start being profitable, or more so, if not already, once the cost of batteries come down on their side.   Not passing on the savings, keeping as profits, to make up for the loss of, or little profits they make now.

 

Will offer better specs & range for about the same price as present models, after initial offerings, and for the same price or cheaper than comparable ICEV.   

 

Thus people will finally realize the value and advantages of EV.  They can have a better performing vehicle, that cost less to operate, and will last longer with less maintenance hassles.

 

It will eventually sink in, as they see their neighbors with better performing, stylish EV, saving money on simply petrol cost as it continues to rise, while taking their ICEV in for constant oil changes & tune ups, along with repairs, as some of the 2000 ish parts malfunction.

 

Eventually pulling the heads out of their A$$ ...

... oops, I mean sand 

We are all just guessing, but that is the fun part.

I think BYD got themselves into a bit of a pickle. They sold around 40,000 cars under the EV3.0 and 3.5 agreements. As I understand it, they now have to match those sales numbers with domestic produces cars in 2024 or 1.5x in 2025.

With falling overall auto sales, the only option for BYD is to dump prices.

To make matters worse, some potential EV buyers might skip the showroom and look at the growing second hand market.

I think there is a lesson for Tesla.

 

The Chinese bring new models to market in a fraction of the time it takes Tesla. They keep their offerings upto date and modern looking with the latest technology.

 

Tesla are trading on yesterday and broken promises.

28 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

We are all just guessing, but that is the fun part.

I think BYD got themselves into a bit of a pickle. They sold around 40,000 cars under the EV3.0 and 3.5 agreements. As I understand it, they now have to match those sales numbers with domestic produces cars in 2024 or 1.5x in 2025.

With falling overall auto sales, the only option for BYD is to dump prices.

To make matters worse, some potential EV buyers might skip the showroom and look at the growing second hand market.

But like we have discussed before those domestic produced EV’s can be exported to neighbouring countries, Lao and Malaysia for example or even the U.K., Australia and Brazil where BYD are selling okay to well.

4 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

I think there is a lesson for Tesla.

 

The Chinese bring new models to market in a fraction of the time it takes Tesla. They keep their offerings upto date and modern looking with the latest technology.

 

Tesla are trading on yesterday and broken promises.

Yet they are out outselling BYD that is offering deep discounts and "new" models. US automakers fell into the "modern looking" think back in the fifties, but back then it was just called planned obsolescence. 

 

Does the BYD Seal not look a lot like the Tesla Model S?

 

This is modern looking: 

 

7 minutes ago, Andrew Dwyer said:

But like we have discussed before those domestic produced EV’s can be exported to neighbouring countries, Lao and Malaysia for example or even the U.K., Australia and Brazil where BYD are selling okay to well.

Other countries that don't care that the steering wheel is on the opposite side?

 

Different countries (and even states in the US) have different requirements that must be met to be approved for sale. 

Just now, Yellowtail said:

Yet they are out outselling BYD that is offering deep discounts and "new" models. US automakers fell into the "modern looking" think back in the fifties, but back then it was just called planned obsolescence. 

 

Does the BYD Seal not look a lot like the Tesla Model S?

 

This is modern looking: 

 

 

I am tempted to say "One Swallow Does Not A Summer Make"

 

I don't think the Seal looks anything like the Model S, I think all Tesla's are showing their age, except the Cybertruck.

 

In the time between Tesla announcing a car and actually delivering it, BYD have moved forward many models.

 

The elephant in the room with Tesla is they have no model replacement plan.  You have the Model 3 & Y as mass market cars, there probably will be no replacement just minor upgrades.  I think that ultimately dooms them to failure.

 

I am equally sure that BYD will surpass Tesla in sales volumes fairly soon, the writing is on the wall for Tesla.

1 minute ago, Yellowtail said:

Other countries that don't care that the steering wheel is on the opposite side?

 

Different countries (and even states in the US) have different requirements that must be met to be approved for sale. 

 

BYD are selling LHD cars in Europe.

2 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Other countries that don't care that the steering wheel is on the opposite side?

 

Different countries (and even states in the US) have different requirements that must be met to be approved for sale. 

So RHD cars can only be manufactured in RHD countries and cars cannot be manufactured in different states in the US if the requirements are not the same ??

 

What exactly are you trying to say ??

2 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

I am tempted to say "One Swallow Does Not A Summer Make"

That was a perfect response the first time you said it, I was impressed. Now? Not so much. 

2 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

I don't think the Seal looks anything like the Model S, I think all Tesla's are showing their age, except the Cybertruck.

You're right, what was I thinking:

 

2 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

In the time between Tesla announcing a car and actually delivering it, BYD have moved forward many models.

 

The elephant in the room with Tesla is they have no model replacement plan.  You have the Model 3 & Y as mass market cars, there probably will be no replacement just minor upgrades.  I think that ultimately dooms them to failure.

 

I am equally sure that BYD will surpass Tesla in sales volumes fairly soon, the writing is on the wall for Tesla.

Toyota has been selling the Corolla since 1966 and Ford has been selling the F-Series since 1948, so I'm not sure what your point is. A lot of people like buying a vehicle on a well-developed platform, and they are not really interested in buying a "new" model. One can make the argument that R & D money is better spent on actual functional improvements to an existing platform than in producing new sheet-metal to make it look different.

 

 

 

 

 

18 minutes ago, Andrew Dwyer said:

So RHD cars can only be manufactured in RHD countries and cars cannot be manufactured in different states in the US if the requirements are not the same ??

 

What exactly are you trying to say ??

No, what I'm saying, and what I know to be true, is that vehicles are typically built market specific, and that vehicle built for one market generally are not approved for sale in other markets.  One plant might build vehicles for ten different markets, but the vehicles are built to the specific market. 

 

For example, if you have 10,000 units built for domestic sale in China, those units are likely not going to be approved for sale in the EU. 

6 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

That was a perfect response the first time you said it, I was impressed. Now? Not so much. 

You're right, what was I thinking:

 

Toyota has been selling the Corolla since 1966 and Ford has been selling the F-Series since 1948, so I'm not sure what your point is. A lot of people like buying a vehicle on a well-developed platform, and they are not really interested in buying a "new" model. One can make the argument that R & D money is better spent on actual functional improvements to an existing platform than in producing new sheet-metal to make it look different.

 

 

 

You might find this hard to believe, but I'm not trying to impress you, the world does not revolve around Mr. YellowTail.

 

Toyota and Ford maybe using the same names, but they are not even remotely like the same platforms.  So far all we are seeing as facelifts of old cars and no talk or leaks of anything regarding a replacement.

 

When Musk does announce a new car, history tells you to take it with a pinch of salt, for a few years anyway.

5 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

No, what I'm saying, and what I know to be true, is that vehicles are typically built market specific, and that vehicle built for one market generally are not approved for sale in other markets.  One plant might build vehicles for ten different markets, but the vehicles are built to the specific market. 

 

For example, if you have 10,000 units built for domestic sale in China, those units are likely not going to be approved for sale in the EU. 

 

Honda's Civic is sold all over the world, so is Toyota's Corolla, all the Mercedes models pretty much.

 

What you say is true, but it's not a major hurdle and manufacturers do it all the time.

4 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Honda's Civic is sold all over the world, so is Toyota's Corolla, all the Mercedes models pretty much.

And they are different all over the world, yes?

4 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

What you say is true, but it's not a major hurdle and manufacturers do it all the time.

I know it's true.

 

If a company has a lot of vehicles built for sale in one market, it is a big deal to rework them to such that they can be sold in a different market.