Humanity: better or worse

[Sparktrader]

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202204

 

Scientific website

Warming slowed to 0.04 per decade since 2010.

 

 

[Sparktrader]

1.6% not 97% of papers

[rott]

3 hours ago, Lacessit said:

People who enjoy the work they are doing can go on into their eighties or even nineties. Those that don't, usually tap out at 50.

True but people tell me that TEFLing is not exactly a bundle of laughs, especially for the modest pay that usually goes with it.

Unless of course you're a proper teacher who already knows what it's all about and can get a proper teaching job. 

Edited May 15, 2022 by rott

[Scott]

Posts reported and removed.

 

[Lacessit]

7 hours ago, Sparktrader said:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202204

 

Scientific website

Warming slowed to 0.04 per decade since 2010.

 

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202204/supplemental/page-2

 

Outlook is 2022 will be "95% confidence interval of 2nd to 8th warmest year on record"

 

Looks like you  picked the data that suited you.

 

If climate change is not real, according to you, please explain why the Insurance Council of Australia is warning 1 in 25 houses will become uninsurable by 2030 due to climate change.

 

Insurance companies live and die by risk assessment and probabilities, permit me to doubt they are lefty organizations treating climate change as a religious crusade.

[BritManToo]

4 hours ago, Lacessit said:

If climate change is not real, according to you, please explain why the Insurance Council of Australia is warning 1 in 25 houses will become uninsurable by 2030 due to climate change.

Presumably Oz banks won't be offering 30 year loans on any of them.

If you can't get insurance, you can't get a mortgage.

1 in 25 householders losing their money would topple most governments/banks/financial institutions.

 

Only 8 years left before Oz life becomes interesting and the Oz dollar worthless.

Edited May 16, 2022 by BritManToo

[spidermike007]

14 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Don't agree with the population scares.

Most western countries have reducing populations, if you remove the non-white immigrants.

 

Do agree with the sex.

For most of my pals back in the UK sex stopped for them at age 40.

And declining populations is a very good thing. However, that does not discount the 8 billion already here. I would argue that this planet was not really designed or created to support 8 billion souls.

[BritManToo]

11 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

And declining populations is a very good thing.

No if it's only 'your' population dropping.

[spidermike007]

5 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

No if it's only 'your' population dropping.

I cannot even interpret that. However, I agree with many of your posts, so I hope you and yours continue on with a very healthy life. I do think dropping population is a very good thing for humanity. On most levels. Sure, there may be some labor shortages. But, it will all be worked out. 

[Lacessit]

21 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Presumably Oz banks won't be offering 30 year loans on any of them.

If you can't get insurance, you can't get a mortgage.

1 in 25 householders losing their money would topple most governments/banks/financial institutions.

 

Only 8 years left before Oz life becomes interesting and the Oz dollar worthless.

My guess is flood and bushfire-prone areas will be declared build at your own risk. While my son is still paying house insurance, he also has pumps, sprays and enough water supply to fight a bush fire by blanketing the whole house in water mist. There will always be people who accept the risk, just as there are many retirees here who self-fund their medical and hospital bills.

 

Life in Oz is not interesting for me, it's why I am here. It may be for some who get a masochistic pleasure out of listing all their bowel motions for the Centrelink feminazis.

 

I doubt the Oz dollar will become worthless, we've always been pretty good at digging stuff up out of the ground. For example, Australia produces twice as much lithium for omnipresent batteries than the next biggest exporter. If we could just get rid of the corrupt coal-humpers in Canberra, we could also become the world's largest exporter of renewable energy. We certainly get enough sunshine.

 

I'm wondering what will happen to the GBP,  because the UK's principal export appears to be people with snotty attitudes.

 

 

[BritManToo]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

I cannot even interpret that. However, I agree with many of your posts, so I hope you and yours continue on with a very healthy life. I do think dropping population is a very good thing for humanity. On most levels. Sure, there may be some labor shortages. But, it will all be worked out. 

Of course you can, I'm a white Anglo Saxon protestant (I can stretch that to include Catholics) with WASP/Thai mix children.

[BritManToo]

1 hour ago, Lacessit said:

There will always be people who accept the risk, just as there are many retirees here who self-fund their medical and hospital bills.

You read but you don't understand.

Those properties are already owned/leveraged.

Without the ability to insure them they become worthless.

The current owners won't continue to repay any loans, the financial institutions will suffer a 100% loss.

 

A 4% default (1 in 25) will be a massive blow to the finances of the country and it's institutions.

Edited May 16, 2022 by BritManToo

[formanth]

Everyone's entitled to their opinion, sure.

All the people saying that population reduction should've started yesterday as being a good thing overall... it'll happen anyway, Why give it energy? The year 2100 won't have the same numbers as this era.

 

Why don't you hear them say  " I'll gladly assist in the population reduction by volunteering (to go) first".........

 

The old "as long as it's not me"....

Edited May 16, 2022 by formanth

[Fat is a type of crazy]

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

You read but you don't understand.

Those properties are already owned/leveraged.

Without the ability to insure them they become worthless.

The current owners won't continue to repay any loans, the financial institutions will suffer a 100% loss.

 

A 4% default (1 in 25) will be a massive blow to the finances of the country and it's institutions.

You seem to be agreeing climate change is a thing. Good job.

There aren't that many houses in Australia in that situation so it's not that dire. Way less than 4 per cent I'd say. Most live in the city and suburbs that look the same as other countries. There are though large areas with relatively few houses that are at risk. Not to minimise the risk as it is definitely significant to small part of the population. 

I do live in such a house less than an hour from the city, surrounded by big gum trees, kookaburras and cockatoos etc. It is a bit of a risk and insurance will probably get more expensive, right now it's about AUD $1300 so pretty good,  but it makes for a nice lifestyle.

We have a large and active fire brigade, professional and volunteer, and those who live here know how to minimise the risk. So I think it effects a relative small number of properties and those people amongst the trees, particularly nearer to the cities,  are able to somewhat adapt and lessen the risk. 

Edited May 16, 2022 by Fat is a type of crazy

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

You read but you don't understand.

Those properties are already owned/leveraged.

Without the ability to insure them they become worthless.

The current owners won't continue to repay any loans, the financial institutions will suffer a 100% loss.

 

A 4% default (1 in 25) will be a massive blow to the finances of the country and it's institutions.

Point taken, I was thinking more about new builds. However, that would require people with sufficient cash to avoid the necessity of borrowing.

 

What about house owners who have paid off their properties? They are not going to just walk away from where they live, they would either accept the risk of being wiped out, or shore up their defences.

 

Come to think of it, do Thais insure their houses?

[BritManToo]

12 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Come to think of it, do Thais insure their houses?

I don't insure anything unless required by law.

[Lacessit]

46 minutes ago, Fat is a type of crazy said:

You seem to be agreeing climate change is a thing. Good job.

There aren't that many houses in Australia in that situation so it's not that dire. Way less than 4 per cent I'd say. Most live in the city and suburbs that look the same as other countries. There are though large areas with relatively few houses that are at risk. Not to minimise the risk as it is definitely significant to small part of the population. 

I do live in such a house less than an hour from the city, surrounded by big gum trees, kookaburras and cockatoos etc. It is a bit of a risk and insurance will probably get more expensive, right now it's about AUD $1300 so pretty good,  but it makes for a nice lifestyle.

We have a large and active fire brigade, professional and volunteer, and those who live here know how to minimise the risk. So I think it effects a relative small number of properties and those people amongst the trees, particularly nearer to the cities,  are able to somewhat adapt and lessen the risk. 

It sounds very similar to my son's area, $1300 is very cheap. His latest premium is $3500. How big is your block of land, and who are you insured with?

[Lacessit]

Just now, BritManToo said:

I don't insure anything unless required by law.

IIRC, you've said your house is being paid off on a bank loan. Does the Thai bank require you to have house insurance?

[Fat is a type of crazy]

18 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

It sounds very similar to my son's area, $1300 is very cheap. His latest premium is $3500. How big is your block of land, and who are you insured with?

As it happens I live less than 10km from your son. If I recall correctly  he is in Olinda. I was in Olinda for 10 years as a kid. Beautiful place.

I had a policy with Coles insurance where in my first year they started nice and low at $800, and have increased it well above the inflation rate since, but still good. Other ones that offer reasonable rates are Woolworths and AAMI. Some like Budget Direct won't insure in  that area. I first joined GIO but after a claim for a new roof after a hailstorm there rates went crazy. 

[Grecian]

11 hours ago, Lacessit said:

 

 

If climate change is not real, according to you, please explain why the Insurance Council of Australia is warning 1 in 25 houses will become uninsurable by 2030 due to climate change.

 

 

Doesn't your argument go the other way too then? If climate change is hugely overblown the insurance companies will be insuring those houses in 2030?

 

 

[Lacessit]

26 minutes ago, Grecian said:

Doesn't your argument go the other way too then? If climate change is hugely overblown the insurance companies will be insuring those houses in 2030?

 

 

Insurance companies are notoriously hard-headed about risk, they have to be. Or go broke.

When I asked another poster to explain the terms albedo and clathrates without resorting to Google, dead silence. Probably went straight through to the wicketkeeper.

 

Contrary to social media conspiracy theory, scientists are usually quite conservative when it comes to modelling. That's who the insurance companies are listening to.

What most scientists are concerned about is the occurrence of a black swan event. Such as could happen with an unexpected permafrost melt. In that event, it's very possible the effect of climate change could be way underestimated.

 

Pro tip: Rent in Bangkok, don't buy. It's only 1 metre above sea level.

 

 

[BritManToo]

3 hours ago, Lacessit said:

IIRC, you've said your house is being paid off on a bank loan. Does the Thai bank require you to have house insurance?

138bht a month, no choice, don't  know what it covers, never asked.

[Lacessit]

3 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

138bht a month, no choice, don't  know what it covers, never asked.

So you're paying 1,656 baht/year, my son on the current exchange rate is paying 84,342 baht/year. <deleted> me.

[formanth]

2 hours ago, Lacessit said:

So you're paying 1,656 baht/year, my son on the current exchange rate is paying 84,342 baht/year. <deleted> me.

You pay for the "privelege" of living in a "brand" country.

You know, highly taxed, overly regulated, authoritarian, angry, slowly collapsing cuntries - Aust, N.Z, the U.K, the U.S and Canada, Scandinavia, etc.

[Lacessit]

47 minutes ago, formanth said:

You pay for the "privelege" of living in a "brand" country.

You know, highly taxed, overly regulated, authoritarian, angry, slowly collapsing cuntries - Aust, N.Z, the U.K, the U.S and Canada, Scandinavia, etc.

 

48 minutes ago, formanth said:

You pay for the "privelege" of living in a "brand" country.

You know, highly taxed, overly regulated, authoritarian, angry, slowly collapsing cuntries - Aust, N.Z, the U.K, the U.S and Canada, Scandinavia, etc.

I take it the spelling mistake was not actually that.