Crypto Crashes

[ozimoron]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

Unless you have access to a crystal ball or time machine, how do you when the price is at a low, and when it's at a high?

The same way as you know how any other asset is at a low or a high. ????

[ozimoron]

Just now, Hummin said:

Im waiting for his book where he tellls the story behind it. 

He doesn't need the money.

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, ozimoron said:

The same way as you know how any other asset is at a low or a high. ????

Which is why almost everyone wins when it comes to investing.

[Mac Mickmanus]

4 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

The same way as you know how any other asset is at a low or a high. ????

 

usually the share price is worked out by how the Company is performing , how much profit they are making through selling things and their expected growth and what assets they have . 

   Bitcoin has no assets , does not sell anything and isn't going to expand 

[Hummin]

 

Im sure you read this one before, but could be interesting for others. 

https://www.investopedia.com/tech/three-people-who-were-supposedly-bitcoin-founder-satoshi-nakamoto/

[ozimoron]

Just now, Mac Mickmanus said:

 

usually the share price is worked out by how the Company is performing , how much profit they are making through selling things and their expected growth and what assets they have . 

   Bitcoin has no assets , does not sell anything and isn't going to expand 

Tesla never made money for years, it was purely speculative. Gamecorp, what was that about? Houses? They can drop 50% and did so after the GFC in many places.

[ozimoron]

1 minute ago, Hummin said:

 

Im sure you read this one before, but could be interesting for others. 

https://www.investopedia.com/tech/three-people-who-were-supposedly-bitcoin-founder-satoshi-nakamoto/

Yes, but you own nothing and can't ever get your hands on the bitcoin unless you hold the wallet addresses. Possession is 100% of the law in this case.

[Airalee]

2 hours ago, Lemsta69 said:

you seem to be hung up on the cost of BTC transfers. that ship sailed a long time ago. there are plenty of other blockchains that process transactions for pennies. BSC being a notable example. last BEP20 transfer I did get from Beyoncé to Trust Wallet only cost me fifty cent.

But the values of those “tokens” or “coins” have both fallen around 80% YTD.  So if bought them in January and then used them to transfer funds today, you would have lost 80% of your purchasing power.

 

 

[Hummin]

1 minute ago, ozimoron said:

Tesla never made money for years, it was purely speculative. Gamecorp, what was that about? Houses? They can drop 50% and did so after the GFC in many places.

You can not see the difference between a inventing producing company who sits on technology, patents and some of the best engineers spread out on many developing fields and BTC or any other crypto currency’s? 
 

 

[Hummin]

3 minutes ago, Airalee said:

But the values of those “tokens” or “coins” have both fallen around 80% YTD.  So if bought them in January and then used them to transfer funds today, you would have lost 80% of your purchasing power.

 

 

If it falls below 6, I can be tempted to buy a couple just for fun, and money Im willing to loose. And sell it above 50

[ozimoron]

10 minutes ago, Hummin said:

You can not see the difference between a inventing producing company who sits on technology, patents and some of the best engineers spread out on many developing fields and BTC or any other crypto currency’s?

I'm saying that not all assets are productive. Gold is one of them.

 

The bottom line is that bitcoin is priced at $30,000 today because $1 trillion greenbacks says that it will be higher in the future., It was worth double that but $1 trillion bailed out. I am not suggesting that anybody buy BTC at current prices. I'm only saying that it has intrinsic value based on perception. That's all it takes.

 

There was a very public difference of opinion between Cathy Wood (Ark Investments) and Michael Saylor. Both lost. My position is that there is no safe asset class right now other than uncle sams. The stock markets are in a confirmed bear market with no macroeconomic factors supporting a recovery anytime soon. BTC will not go to zero because it can't be destroyed. Other crypto, notably Luna and UST can but bitcoin can't. It must have a bottom price. When it gets there it will be a fantastic buy. It might be now but that's not my opinion. I might well be wrong, Time will tell. I just think that something that is worth nearly ten times what it was 2 or 3 years ago can easily go back there given the current economic outlook.

[atpeace]

3 hours ago, lkn said:

Has it really? During the pandemic, the price of gold spiked initially but has underperformed now that inflation has actually arrived.

 

Anything that does not get cheaper to produce, has minimal storage costs, long shelve life, and for which there will not be decreasing demand, is a good hedge against inflation. Therefore real estate would probably be my choice, if I were to hedge against inflation (via a real estate investment trust, so that my investment is easy to convert into cash).

 

But since economic growth generally outpace inflation, I would not just want to hedge against inflation, I want to put my money in productive assets and beat inflation — maybe when I get older, I will be more conservative and happy with I Bonds ????

Agree with most but history goes a little further back than the current pandemic.

[ozimoron]

4 minutes ago, atpeace said:

Agree with most but history goes a little further back than the current pandemic.

We are currently in a period of very high inflation, right? The highest for 40 years right? Cast your beadies over this gold price outlook.

 

https://knoema.com/ryjroog/gold-price-forecast-2021-2022-and-long-term-to-2030

 

https://capital.com/gold-price-forecast

Edited May 18, 2022 by ozimoron

[atpeace]

1 minute ago, ozimoron said:

We are currently in a period of very high inflation, right? The highest for 40 years right? Cast your beadies over this gold price outlook.

 

https://knoema.com/ryjroog/gold-price-forecast-2021-2022-and-long-term-to-2030

Not sure what you are getting at? Please tell and not going to read the link. Not being confrontational just want to know your point.

[ozimoron]

19 minutes ago, atpeace said:

Not sure what you are getting at? Please tell and not going to read the link. Not being confrontational just want to know your point.

My point, as previously stated, is that gold is not a hedge against inflation and will join every other asset in a crash or stagnate at best. That said, it may well become attractive if the world's economy descends into depression.

https://crowdwisdom.live/us-stocks/gold-price-forecast-today/

Edited May 18, 2022 by ozimoron

[Danderman123]

The big problem with the crypto crash is that guys at the bars can’t talk about how much money they made. 
 

i lived through the dot.com crash, but this is worse, because some of the dot.coms were worth holding onto, whereas none of the cryptos have any value.

[GrandPapillon]

4 hours ago, fdsa said:

and the bank staff said they could not send the money because they want to see a printed invoice from the party I was sending to

yep, new regulation from SWIFT, a PITA

 

but using crypto to replace a broken system with another insecure broken system like cryptos is not an option either

[GrandPapillon]

4 hours ago, fdsa said:

This bank is called Krungsri / Ayutthaya

get a better bank, problem solved. Could have used WISE also.

[RafPinto]

That's my Shell

 

Doing extremely well.

Last purchase was around 6 months ago at 16,15£

[GrandPapillon]

1 hour ago, Hummin said:

 

Im sure you read this one before, but could be interesting for others. 

https://www.investopedia.com/tech/three-people-who-were-supposedly-bitcoin-founder-satoshi-nakamoto/

yeah, saw that long time ago, and yet went completely over the head of the usual crypto enthusiasts ????

 

[RafPinto]

40 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

I'm saying that not all assets are productive. Gold is one of them.

 

The bottom line is that bitcoin is priced at $30,000 today because $1 trillion greenbacks says that it will be higher in the future., It was worth double that but $1 trillion bailed out. I am not suggesting that anybody buy BTC at current prices. I'm only saying that it has intrinsic value based on perception. That's all it takes.

 

There was a very public difference of opinion between Cathy Wood (Ark Investments) and Michael Saylor. Both lost. My position is that there is no safe asset class right now other than uncle sams. The stock markets are in a confirmed bear market with no macroeconomic factors supporting a recovery anytime soon. BTC will not go to zero because it can't be destroyed. Other crypto, notably Luna and UST can but bitcoin can't. It must have a bottom price. When it gets there it will be a fantastic buy. It might be now but that's not my opinion. I might well be wrong, Time will tell. I just think that something that is worth nearly ten times what it was 2 or 3 years ago can easily go back there given the current economic outlook.

Oil and gas doing very well.
Have a look at SHELL, BP and even Centrica doing very well this year.

[pomchop]

How about all the crypto cheerleaders just go buy all you want and forget about trying to convince everyone (or yourself) that you see things that others can's see or understand and they should all jump on the crypto bandwagon?  Just think how much more crypto you can buy before the rest of us "see the light" and jack the prices up.

[Walker88]

21 hours ago, fdsa said:

And when you need to pay a $100 invoice via SWIFT you are happy to pay $50 in fees.

Oh if you put it THAT way, then I guess it's worth burning more energy in one transaction than the typical US house uses in 28 days, or mining btc, which uses more energy that many major corporations use in all of their activities. I mean, if that isn't worth it to save fifty bucks, what is?

[atpeace]

50 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

My point, as previously stated, is that gold is not a hedge against inflation and will join every other asset in a crash or stagnate at best. That said, it may well become attractive if the world's economy descends into depression.

https://crowdwisdom.live/us-stocks/gold-price-forecast-today/

I think you're stating that gold is a hedge but in this last couple years it hasn't been.  I'm not a fan of commodity investing so really doesn't matter financially to me but interesting nonetheless.

Edited May 18, 2022 by atpeace

[lkn]

2 hours ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

Could one person set up numerous Bitcoin addresses and then hold vast amounts of bitcoin whilst it appears to be owned by numerous people ?

That would be possible, yes. But that just means the number of people holding majority of the coins is even smaller.

 

When I (not the one you replied to, but previously made a statement) talk about “the one percent [in crypto]” it is based on who actually own/control the major exchanges, stable coins (which is the lifeblood of he DeFi ecosystem), “applications”, and who provide the capital for many of the schemes and thus make a lot of the money, e.g. by getting pre-mined coins before an ICO, etc.

 

It seems to me that a lot of the crypto proponents are completely blind to what actually goes on in the crypto ecosystem. I think they are too busy watching chart porn on YT or being dazzled by influencers and TV celeberties who talk about their new favorite coin…

 

In a way, it is really sad, because a lot of these people feel the existing system is unfair to them, e.g. high bank fees or them hearing about “bank bailouts” a year after they heard about multi-million dollar executive bonuses, or that we “print money” that prop up equity prices that benefit the rich, because they own majority of these equities.

 

But crypto is an unregulated negative-sum game; there will be far more losers than winners, and there is effectively no consumer protection or much action to take, if you end up losing everything e.g. to unsustainable staking schemes like Luna — let me just remind people, the founder and early investors in Luna did make millions, I think it was 23% of the coins which were sold to investors at $0.19 or so, and this coin did go above $100, so the investors probably made x100-x500 — but retail investors probably had a collective loss in the billions! This was just transfer of wealth from retail investors to Do Kwon and his investor friends, and there are lots of Do Kwons out there — Richard Heart probably being my favorite, as 5+ years ago he talked about all these scams, but then he realized, he should just create his own (HEX Coin) and is now at least a multi-millionaire, but has managed to scam people in a way where they still don’t realize it (because of his “delayed gratification” scheme).

[lkn]

29 minutes ago, atpeace said:

I think you're stating that gold is a hedge but in this last couple years it hasn't been

Like an insurance where you have paid the premium for 20 years, and now the house burns down, but they don’t pay out anything. It was a good insurance for all the years where the house didn’t burn down ????

[ozimoron]

42 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

Oh if you put it THAT way, then I guess it's worth burning more energy in one transaction than the typical US house uses in 28 days, or mining btc, which uses more energy that many major corporations use in all of their activities. I mean, if that isn't worth it to save fifty bucks, what is?

You're confusing bitcoin mining with bitcoin transactions

 

https://hbr.org/2021/05/how-much-energy-does-bitcoin-actually-consume

[sezze]

5 hours ago, fdsa said:

would you be so kind to show how to pay an invoice to some company that wants a "bank transfer", via the Western Union?

 

 

 

Bank to another bank in Thailand was 20 baht transfer fee , long before BTC arrived . WU got different rates , in older days much higher and also at the spread ( buying /sellling ) . Nowadays , lots of the fees on WU have disappeared , but still got huge bad spread rate ( aka the rate you get when sending money to Thailand ) , thats why Wise or other websites are used a lot more now . 

[atpeace]

1 hour ago, ozimoron said:

My point, as previously stated, is that gold is not a hedge against inflation and will join every other asset in a crash or stagnate at best. That said, it may well become attractive if the world's economy descends into depression.

https://crowdwisdom.live/us-stocks/gold-price-forecast-today/

Well, you got all bases covered.  It isn't a hedge but ,,,  What about 2007?  Gold isn't a great investment if compared to real companies but it does seem to be a good hedge with the exception of the last few years.  

 

[ozimoron]

1 minute ago, atpeace said:

Well, you got all bases covered.  It isn't a hedge but ,,,  What about 2007?  Gold isn't a great investment if compared to real companies but it does seem to be a good hedge with the exception of the last few years.  

 

I agree with you but the reasons for that need to be studied and understood. I don't know the answer to that question but I only note that it hasn't been for the past few years and that's what's important. Maybe that will change. One possibility is that the stimulus money for the GFC and for covid has found it's way into the financial system and has propelled the value of many assets to astronomical levels, including the stock market and crypto. So people are less interested in gold. Another thing to consider is that higher interest rates and bond yields will make dollar investments more attractive as gold doesn't return interest on holdings. An economic collapse would likely kill inflation and the dollar. In that scenario gold might become a hedge but I think its value would fall as well. It may simply be that the mix of assets available in recent years (especially housing) makes gold obsolete as an investment.

 

I don't claim to be an expert. I have studied economics and take an interest in macroeconomics but I am not an economist.