Fears for the baht as it hits a 15-year low and Thai economic performance in the medium term

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

13 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

I am curious to learn from a better mind as to why the powers that falsely inflated the Baht don't do the same now. 

well, because they have different calculations now, like for example

attract more tourists.

[NobbyClarke]

Anyone else remember the pound at around 70 baht to the pound?

The Kingdom was heaving with tourists, very little crime, Thailand people pleased to welcome tourists, clean beaches and a safe and secure LOS?

People came to the Kingdom knowing what to expect 

I doubt if many of these things will ever return but wouldn't it be nice?

Any thoughts?

[topcat333]

I follow this chart regularly. 

https://longforecast.com/usd-to-bht-today-forecast

Dollar To Baht Forecast For 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 And 2026

Month	Open	Low-High	Close	Mo,%	Total,%
2022
Jun	34.14	34.14-36.27	35.73	4.7%	4.7%
Jul	35.73	35.47-36.55	36.01	0.8%	5.5%
Aug	36.01	35.23-36.31	35.77	-0.7%	4.8%
Sep	35.77	35.77-37.39	36.84	3.0%	7.9%
Oct	36.84	36.84-38.09	37.53	1.9%	9.9%
Nov	37.53	36.31-37.53	36.86	-1.8%	8.0%
Dec	36.86	36.34-37.44	36.89	0.1%	8.1%
2023
Jan	36.89	36.02-37.12	36.57	-0.9%	7.1%
Feb	36.57	36.22-37.32	36.77	0.5%	7.7%
Mar	36.77	35.94-37.04	36.49	-0.8%	6.9%
Apr	36.49	36.49-38.14	37.58	3.0%	10.1%
May	37.58	36.21-37.58	36.76	-2.2%	7.7%
Jun	36.76	36.76-38.34	37.77	2.7%	10.6%
Jul	37.77	37.77-39.38	38.80	2.7%	13.6%
Aug	38.80	38.25-39.41	38.83	0.1%	13.7%
Sep	38.83	38.19-39.35	38.77	-0.2%	13.6%
Oct	38.77	38.77-40.43	39.83	2.7%	16.7%
Nov	39.83	39.83-41.11	40.50	1.7%	18.6%
Dec	40.50	39.74-40.96	40.35	-0.4%	18.2%

[KhunLA]

7 minutes ago, topcat333 said:

I follow this chart regularly. 

https://longforecast.com/usd-to-bht-today-forecast

Dollar To Baht Forecast For 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 And 2026

Month	Open	Low-High	Close	Mo,%	Total,%
2022
Jun	34.14	34.14-36.27	35.73	4.7%	4.7%
Jul	35.73	35.47-36.55	36.01	0.8%	5.5%
Aug	36.01	35.23-36.31	35.77	-0.7%	4.8%
Sep	35.77	35.77-37.39	36.84	3.0%	7.9%
Oct	36.84	36.84-38.09	37.53	1.9%	9.9%
Nov	37.53	36.31-37.53	36.86	-1.8%	8.0%
Dec	36.86	36.34-37.44	36.89	0.1%	8.1%
2023
Jan	36.89	36.02-37.12	36.57	-0.9%	7.1%
Feb	36.57	36.22-37.32	36.77	0.5%	7.7%
Mar	36.77	35.94-37.04	36.49	-0.8%	6.9%
Apr	36.49	36.49-38.14	37.58	3.0%	10.1%
May	37.58	36.21-37.58	36.76	-2.2%	7.7%
Jun	36.76	36.76-38.34	37.77	2.7%	10.6%
Jul	37.77	37.77-39.38	38.80	2.7%	13.6%
Aug	38.80	38.25-39.41	38.83	0.1%	13.7%
Sep	38.83	38.19-39.35	38.77	-0.2%	13.6%
Oct	38.77	38.77-40.43	39.83	2.7%	16.7%
Nov	39.83	39.83-41.11	40.50	1.7%	18.6%
Dec	40.50	39.74-40.96	40.35	-0.4%	18.2%

Has it been accurate in the past ?

 

I personally wouldn't take much stock in rate forecasting, much further than 1 week.  Though I certainly do like their forecast.  Getting back to 40 would be great ... for me anyway.

[arithai12]

1 hour ago, NobbyClarke said:

Anyone else remember the pound at around 70 baht to the pound?

The Kingdom was heaving with tourists, very little crime, Thailand people pleased to welcome tourists, clean beaches and a safe and secure LOS?

People came to the Kingdom knowing what to expect 

I doubt if many of these things will ever return but wouldn't it be nice?

Any thoughts?

The last time the rate was 70 was around 2006, that's 16 years ago. There's no way that the number of tourists was comparable with those of 2-3 years ago. As for safer, I have my doubts. We were all younger, we didn't spend hours reading things off the internet, we probably didn't know so much about crimes. Cleaner beaches 20y ago: that goes without saying, it's true for the whole planet.

 

There's always two sides to a "favorable" exchange rate. You love it as a tourist or as a pensioner paid in a foreign currency, you hate it if you are a resident and earn a salary in Baht, or if you like to buy imported things. Thailand exports/imports a lot, so extreme low or high rates are bad for some sectors of the economy as a whole and that in the end trickles down to the average person.

 

 

[daejung]

22 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Fears for the baht as it hits a 15-year low

 

Really ? The £/baht was higher than currently last week ! Talk about a nonsense headline

They speak about USD/baht.

No gain for europeans

[starky]

22 hours ago, sandrew33 said:

Extremely narrow focus of Baht v USD. 
 

AUD was almost 33 Baht a decade ago it’s now 25 baht. 

 

Perhaps remove the focus on USD and take a bigger picture view? 

What that same decade ago when Australia was in the midst of the largest resources boom its ever seen and had parity, and better, with the US dollar? That decade ago? Do you understand how forex works? Especially when dealing with a currwncy tied to the USD. What do you think fair value is for the AUD vs the baht?

  Ill give you a hint its waaaay below 30. 

[jacko45k]

13 hours ago, Jimjim1 said:

When did he say that!

I understood him to be generalising.

In January....

[Old Croc]

13 hours ago, Dumbfounded said:

AUD to THB was above 33 back in 2012 as the GFC took it's toll on the USD. Howard had Aust in surplus and so we leapfrogged the USD for a while, shame it didn't last longer. I moved from Oz in 2013 and was only getting around 28 by then, now just over 24

I lucked out in 2012, I moved a very large sum to cover a house purchase and the 800k in the bank. The exchange rate was 32.34.

[Lacrimas]

21 hours ago, Harveyboy said:

still terrible against the euro...where is the weak Baht ..please

There's war in Europe

[leeroy221]

Someone here might be able to answer this, as I am visiting soon I am wondering whether to bring GBP and change to THB when there or, should I change to USD and then THB when I arrive?

[KhunLA]

46 minutes ago, leeroy221 said:

Someone here might be able to answer this, as I am visiting soon I am wondering whether to bring GBP and change to THB when there or, should I change to USD and then THB when I arrive?

I would think you lose every time you exchange any currency, so just once, and if UK like USA, the better rate is to be had in TH.

[topcat333]

15 hours ago, KhunLA said:

Has it been accurate in the past ?

 

I personally wouldn't take much stock in rate forecasting, much further than 1 week.  Though I certainly do like their forecast.  Getting back to 40 would be great ... for me anyway.

Quote

To answer your question, the charts change regularly, but just following the trends the Baht continues to weaken. I've been building and holding USD based on these trends and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Less than a year ago there were many who said the Baht would not likely ever see 35 ever again. I can't predict whether 40 will be reached but I'm not going to rule it out either.

 

[KhunLA]

2 minutes ago, topcat333 said:

 

My brother trades currencies also.

[topcat333]

2 hours ago, leeroy221 said:

Someone here might be able to answer this, as I am visiting soon I am wondering whether to bring GBP and change to THB when there or, should I change to USD and then THB when I arrive?

It's off topic so won't answer here but if you want to write me at <Email address removed> I'll be happy to share some tips as I've been going in and out of country for years and there definatly is a more correct way to exchange to get your best rate.

[KIngsofisaan]

On 6/27/2022 at 12:40 AM, ThailandRyan said:

They are praying that the FED does not uncork another .5 to .75 basis hike coming up after the G7 summit.  Prices are rising globally and that goes for everything imports and exports.

Guaranteed the FED will increase the rates again in August 2022

[Thunglom]

low baht is perfect for tourism.....it used to be around 75 to the pound about 20 years ago. A lot of OAPs will be happy.

[jacko45k]

14 hours ago, leeroy221 said:

Someone here might be able to answer this, as I am visiting soon I am wondering whether to bring GBP and change to THB when there or, should I change to USD and then THB when I arrive?

There is inherent losses in changing.... where do you plan to buy the USD? Not very good rates in the UK. If we knew where currencies were going we could make a lot of money. 

[ThailandRyan]

34.95 Thb to $1 this morning.  Looks like the buying of the Baht by the BOT and some speculators have had an effect so far on the exchange rates, but then they will reap the rewards when the price rises and they sell it back into USD, think millions, not miniscule amounts.

[jacko45k]

On 6/29/2022 at 9:17 AM, ThailandRyan said:

34.95 Thb to $1 this morning.  Looks like the buying of the Baht by the BOT and some speculators have had an effect so far on the exchange rates, but then they will reap the rewards when the price rises and they sell it back into USD, think millions, not miniscule amounts.

I see 35.4 on my Yahoo page, which usually matches Wise transfer rates.....

We are expecting Sterling to not do so well due to poor balance of trade numbers. 

[ThailandRyan]

31 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

I see 35.4 on my Yahoo page, which usually matches Wise transfer rates.....

We are expecting Sterling to not do so well due to poor balance of trade numbers. 

Yes it bumped back up to over 35.4 this morning to 35.44 upon the banks opening

[metisdead]

A post with an unattributed chart has been removed.  Please provide a valid link to the source of information when posting. 

[jerrymahoney]

I transfer to a Thai bank a minimum 65,000 baht every first of the month (or next bank non-holiday) for extension via retirement purposes. Unlike some of you I cannot time the transfer to the microsecond swings of the baht to USD rate.