COVID-19 cases will probably rise after Songkran festival

[richard_smith237]

Just now, transam said:

Us humans are fragile things, there will always be something lurking to attack us, but C19 shut the world down, so that is a concern for this ageing farangy.....????

Think I had Dengue about 4 years back, that was extremely worrying, but I am still here, which I am sure you are all pleased about...???? 

I’m still left wondering if the ‘world shutdown’ was not a huge ‘over-response’ based on the risks which at the time were unknown but based on other recent zoonotic Corona viruses.

 

1) SARS-CoV (2002-2004) - Case Fatality rate about 9.5% - Total Deaths 774

2) MERS-CoV (2012) - Case Fatality rate about 35% - Total Deaths 858

 

At the time the concern with the next novel coronavirus was with the extremely high transmission rates, similar to and even greater than Influenza, yet the Virus was a Corona Virus and the last two known Novel (new) Coronaviruses to impact humans had Case Fatality Rates of 9.5 and 35%.... 

 

Knowing very little about the virus at the time virologists modelled a virus with a transmission of influenza and CFR of 10-35% and the results were horrifying. 

 

As soon as politicians got wind of these results the only ‘correct’ response at the time was ’shut down’ until more was known.

 

The issue then, became politics...  As smaller companies folded and large business lost billions it was impossible for any government or politician to announce... “Its all clear now, things aren’t as bad as we thought”...

 

... and this is where the smoke and mirrors came into it... Politicians doubled down when, with the benefit of hind-sight it was time to step back and admit the ‘understandable’ over-reaction and move on. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 minute ago, richard_smith237 said:

and this is where the smoke and mirrors came into it... Politicians doubled down when, with the benefit of hind-sight it was time to step back and admit the ‘understandable’ over-reaction and move on. 

 

 

The official world death count from COVID is approaching 7 million, and the real estimates based on excess deaths data has been put more in the 15-20 million range.

 

How much of an UNDER reaction to that do you want?

 

[spidermike007]

16 minutes ago, zzaa09 said:

There are a few mutated strains making their rounds everywhere. 

Conveniently suspicious that we don't hear about these things. 

 

Wonder why that is? 

????????

In the US the numbers continue to decrease, week to week. 

Edited April 17, 2023 by spidermike007

[BritManToo]

1 minute ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

The official world death count from COVID is approaching 7 million, and the real estimates based on excess deaths data has been put more in the 15-20 million range.

 

How much of an UNDER reaction to that do you want?

 

As there is nothing anyone can do to stop COVID/colds/flu, there's not much point in any reaction.

[spidermike007]

9 minutes ago, transam said:

So you didn't die, but millions have...........

You sound like an "I'm alright Jack" because you had the sniffles with C19, when millions are dead......

The vast majority died from earlier strains. Very few are dying from omicron. And those who are, likely had alot of other issues. 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

4 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Very little information seems to be available here. I have a friend who is a surgical nurse at a major hospital, and she says she cannot even remember the last time they have seen a covid patient. Some just don't want to let it go. 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

All the info you want is available at the website you linked to above... but you obviously don't want to acknowledge it... Not to mention that I've previously posted it here in this thread.

 

From the U.S. CDC, all relating to Omicron:

"New Hospital Admissions

The current 7-day daily average for April 4–11, 2023, was 1,870.

 

Deaths

The current 7-day average of new deaths (190) decreased 25.4% compared with the previous 7-day average (254)."

 

PS - surgical nurses don't usually get involved in treating COVID cases.

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[dinsdale]

2 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

False. The number of infected would be tiny. Covid has waned. It is a nothing burger now. Stop spreading disinformation, and stop the panic. 

 

What you are right about is how benign and weak Omicron is, and how masks are not needed anymore.

I'm not sure about the infection numbers but my point is it doesn't matter. If the numbers are low or if millions are infected it doesn't matter. If it is still circulating it doesn't matter how many jabs you've had or how many times you have been infected you can still get infected but it doesn't matter. As you say Omicron is "benign and weak" so people might have a runny nose or a blocked nose or sneeze or all manner of common cold symptoms for a couple of days and think nothing of it but so what. It doesn't matter. Nobody is testing any more that's why I think the numbers could be high. We don't test for the common cold so why test for Omicrom? We don't wear masks for the common cold  so why wear masks for Omicron?

[spidermike007]

16 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

The Thailand numbers aren't continuing to drop. As the prior news reports in this thread show, COVID hospitalizations increased about 250% from two weeks prior to this past week.

 

You keep saying Covid "is basically gone," but never put forth any sourced facts to support your false claims.

 

Here we go. In the US the numbers continue to decrease, week to week. Very little information seems to be available here. I have a friend who is a surgical nurse at a major hospital, and she says she cannot even remember the last time they have seen a covid patient. Some just don't want to let it go. 

 

As of April 12, 2023, the current 7-day average of weekly new cases (14,491) decreased 17.3% compared with the previous 7-day average (17,519). A total of 104,348,746 COVID-19 cases have been reported in the United States as of April 12, 2023.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

 

As of Jan 31st, Thailand stopped reporting the number of covid cases per day. But, at they time daily cases were down to 431 nationwide. Since then, based on all the sources I can find, it has continued to drop. There may be a tiny songkran related spike. 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/thailand/

[transam]

3 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

The vast majority died from earlier strains. Very few are dying from omicron. And those who are, likely had alot of other issues. 

So very few ARE dying, those that ARE still dying means a loved one is dead, gone.....????

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

2 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

There may be a tiny songkran related spike. 

A 250% week over week increase in Thailand COVID hospitalizations is your version of "tiny"?

 

[spidermike007]

Just now, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

A 250% week over week increase in Thailand COVID hospitalizations is your version of "tiny"?

 

Yes. When the overall numbers are that small, and the total cases prior to this spike were so low. It is not an alarming stat, on any level. Sure, if the numbers continued to climb, it would be. But, I will bet you they don't. I am not worried. Why are you so worried? 

[dinsdale]

1 minute ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

A 250% week over week increase in Thailand COVID hospitalizations is your version of "tiny"?

 

Is this people hospitalised from covid related symptoms which for the vast majority are mild to very mild or non-existent or people hospitalised for something else but have covid? I still think a lot is down to people with air pollution related illnesses presenting at hospitals but just happen to have Omicron. 

[transam]

Just now, spidermike007 said:

Yes. When the overall numbers are that small, and the total cases prior to this spike were so low. It is not an alarming stat, on any level. Sure, if the numbers continued to climb, it would be. But, I will bet you they don't. I am not worried. Why are you so worried? 

It seems you are trivialising folk dying because the numbers are low, is it alright then if you tell your loved one the same stuff, and they die....?

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 minute ago, spidermike007 said:

Yes. When the overall numbers are that small, and the total cases prior to this spike were so low. It is not an alarming stat, on any level. Sure, if the numbers continued to climb, it would be. But, I will bet you they don't. I am not worried. Why are you so worried? 

I'm not worried. But I do object to those here who falsely claim nothing is occurring with COVID these days either here in Thailand or elsewhere in the world.... when many people are still getting stick and some still are dying from COVID.

 

"Dr Thares advised all high-risk groups to promptly obtain a new booster shot of the Covid-19 vaccine, particularly focusing on the elderly and those with chronic illnesses.

 

To adapt to the escalating number of new infections, the Ministry of Public Health will revise its vaccination strategy. From next month, booster shots will be administered as they would for seasonal flu vaccinations."

 

https://thethaiger.com/news/national/adapting-ddcs-vaccination-strategy-to-address-increasing-cases

 

 

[KhunLA]

1 minute ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

All the info you want is available at the website you linked to above... but you obviously don't want to acknowledge it... Not to mention that I've previously posted it here in this thread.

 

From the U.S. CDC

"New Hospital Admissions

The current 7-day daily average for April 4–11, 2023, was 1,870.

 

Deaths

The current 7-day average of new deaths (190) decreased 25.4% compared with the previous 7-day average (254)."

Reaction .... 7 million

Don't have one/reaction, as didn't know any of them.

 

190 of the ~ 350 million population ... and you expect a reaction.

 

worldwide:  "There were 67.1 million deaths in 2022." 

... again, no reaction, as didn't personally know any of them.  Had a BIL die, but didn't really know him, or could even tell his name.

 

"The world population, therefore, increased by 65.81 million in 2022",   65,81 mill more births than deaths.

... reaction ... more people need to either die, or not be born, as the planet can sustain the increase in population for ever.

 

death & birth stats from this link:

https://ourworldindata.org/births-and-deaths#:~:text=There were 67.1 million deaths,region from 1950 to 2021.

[transam]

1 minute ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

I'm not worried. But I do object to those here who falsely claim nothing is occurring with COVID these days either here in Thailand or elsewhere in the world.... when many people are still getting stick and some still are dying from COVID.

 

"Dr Thares advised all high-risk groups to promptly obtain a new booster shot of the Covid-19 vaccine, particularly focusing on the elderly and those with chronic illnesses.

 

To adapt to the escalating number of new infections, the Ministry of Public Health will revise its vaccination strategy. From next month, booster shots will be administered as they would for seasonal flu vaccinations."

 

https://thethaiger.com/news/national/adapting-ddcs-vaccination-strategy-to-address-increasing-cases

 

 

I think you are wasting your time with these people that think a few dying is OK................

[zzaa09]

We do have to seriously examine the obsessive, and cult-like, COVIDians and their continued/repeated models. 

 

Very much akin to a conditioned psychosis. 

 

[dinsdale]

10 minutes ago, transam said:

It seems you are trivialising folk dying because the numbers are low, is it alright then if you tell your loved one the same stuff, and they die....?

Again with the dying bit. Did they die explicitly from Omicron? Were there comorbidities? Did they die from their comorbities but also had omicron? Without a detailed breakdown it's impossible to tell but on the whole Omicron has shown to be a non-fatal variant of Covid-19. Indeed it is not even a severe variant.

Edited April 17, 2023 by dinsdale

[richard_smith237]

Just now, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

190 people per day are dying of COVID on average each and every day in the U.S., per the U.S. CDC. Thailand COVID news hospitalizations are running 60+ per day.

 

And all the major public health agencies -- for our purposes here, WHO, CDC and Thai MoPH, continue to recommend mask wearing to help prevent COVID.

 

Are 190 people in the USA dying OF Covid-19 or WITH Covid-19 ????...   There is a difference and the ‘differentiation between dying OF and ditching WITH has been contested repeatedly.

 

 

There is also the facet of people cherry picking and posting their own bias - The CDC does not recommend EVERYONE wears a mask... It does recommend mask wearing based on risk and suggests you know the risk of the area you are in (ranging from Green, yellow to amber).

For Green areas the CDC States: People may choose to mask at any time. Masks are recommended in indoor public transportation settings.

 

Personally - I think mask wearing in busy public transportation settings is a good idea, even before Covid, but I wouldn’t get more neurotic about it than that and certainly not while anywhere outdoors, or even in a shopping mall unless is excessively crowded.

 

 

 

https://covid19.who.int/region/searo/country/th

 

This WHO graphic shows that 2 people have died with Covid-19 in the past week (numbers possibly low due to reporting over Songkran). 

 

NOTE: Yearly deaths in Thailand is 594,000 (approx)

Daily deaths in Thailand is approx 1630 people per day (all causes).

Also 60 per day in road accidents. 

 

I think this puts the ‘covid concern’ into perspective. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

 

COVID-19 leading cause of death ranking

November 10, 2022

 

"At the time of this brief, COVID-19 is on track to be the third leading cause of death in the U.S. for the third year in a row. COVID-19 claimed 340,000 lives in 2020, 475,000 lives in 2021, and so far, has taken 230,000 lives in 2022 through September."

 

 

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/covid-19-leading-cause-of-death-ranking/

 

[transam]

2 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Again with the dying bit. Did they die explicitly from Omicron? Were the comorbidities? Did they die from their comorbities but also had omicron? Without a detailed breakdown it's impossible to tell but on the whole Omicron has shown to be a non-fatal variant of Covid-19. Indeed it is not even a severe variant.

I forgot, you are wasting my time....................

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

7 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

Are 190 people in the USA dying OF Covid-19 or WITH Covid-19 ????...   There is a difference and the ‘differentiation between dying OF and ditching WITH has been contested repeatedly.

 

In the U.S., as a general rule, a case only gets counted as a COVID related death if COVID either directly caused or contributed to the person's death. That's why doctors there fill out causes on the death certificates.

 

And, there's wide agreement among COVID scientists and researchers that the various official COVID death counts tallied by governments are in fact undercounts to the actual deaths that have occurred.

 

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[dinsdale]

1 minute ago, transam said:

I forgot, you are wasting my time....................

I believe you waste your own time for wearing a mask but that is only my opinion. If you think Omicron can kill you (maybe you have serious comorbidities) then I strongly suggest you keep wearing your respirator mask properly fitted and consistently. For the rest of us the pandemic is well and truly over and has been since Omicron booted Delta of the planet. All people of knowledge in this area say this to be so. 

[transam]

2 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

I believe you waste your own time for wearing a mask but that is only my opinion. If you think Omicron can kill you (maybe you have serious comorbidities) then I strongly suggest you keep wearing your respirator mask properly fitted and consistently. For the rest of us the pandemic is well and truly over and has been since Omicron booted Delta of the planet. All people of knowledge in this area say this to be so. 

Dr. Dinsdale has spoken..........................................????

[richard_smith237]

43 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

The official world death count from COVID is approaching 7 million, and the real estimates based on excess deaths data has been put more in the 15-20 million range.

 

How much of an UNDER reaction to that do you want?

 

I don't want under or over reaction.... I want unadulterated unbiased facts. 

 

 

Given population increases and expected death rates based on that... The excess deaths in 2021 was 9.9 million.

That information is the unadulterated facts regarding how deadly Covid-19 was... very damning evidence that covid ‘was’ clearly very dangerous. 

 

I’m not disputing any of that - this source matches your information https://ourworldindata.org/births-and-deaths

 

 

For the purposes of this debate I am questioning how dangerous Covid-19 remains, both on a community scale and on a global scale. 

 

For example, the same data source states road deaths at 1.2 million per year (for 2019)... 

What will be more dangerous in 2023 ??..... Covid-19 or using the roads ??? (in aggregate numbers of course). 

 

 

Thus, my curiosity surrounds the existing risks vs the concern we expend on said risk - is the concern we show towards Covid-19 still balanced ?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by richard_smith237

[richard_smith237]

17 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

In the U.S., as a general rule, a case only gets counted as a COVID related death if COVID either directly caused or contributed to the person's death. That's why doctors there fill out causes on the death certificates.

 

And, there's wide agreement among COVID scientists and researchers that the various official COVID death counts tallied by governments are in fact undercounts to the actual deaths that have occurred.

 

 

It was also proven that Hospitals get ‘extra money from Medicare’ IF the hospital has listed Covid-19 on the bill - this is theoretically to cover the extra costs of treatment for Covid-19. 

 

Fact check prove this - although the same checks state there is no evidence that Covid-19 was falsely listed to increase the income from hospital. 

 

Thus: what has actually been written on certificates and bill is IMO, somewhat questionable and open to some underhanded ‘exaggeration’....  

 

That said, as you have pointed out, based on ‘excess deaths’ numbers it would appear that Covid-19 deaths are less than the Excess deaths...  BUT.. that only works IF the excess deaths are considered Covid-19 deaths...  What if those excess deaths were from the side-effects of Covid-19 lockdowns etc ??...  That is perhaps another debate for another time, but one on which I wonder if again, definitive facts will become extremely difficult to come by. 

 

 

For the interest of debate: Going by your figures TallGuy...

Reported Covid-19 deaths: 7 Million

Excess Deaths: 15-20 million. 

 

Could it be argued that between 8 million and 13 million people died as an indirect result of Covid-19 ?? i.e. not because of Covid-19, but due to lock down etc, an inability to access medical care when needed, prevention of urgent diagnosis ?

 

The waters are already getting muddied and I suspect we’ll never know and only by into the stats and information which suit us. 

As I wrote earlier - I’d like to see unadulterated facts, but I think it will be difficult to receive those. 

 

So back tracking - is Covid-19 still a danger to us, I don't think so. no more than any other prevalent illnesses and risks. But I do think cases will rise after Songkran - (if people are even bothered about getting tested anymore). 

 

 

 

 

 

[spidermike007]

43 minutes ago, transam said:

It seems you are trivialising folk dying because the numbers are low, is it alright then if you tell your loved one the same stuff, and they die....?

I am not. Death is death, to a loved one. But, Thailand averages about 550,000 deaths per year. From something. We simply don't have enough information, to determine if the several people who die of covid here have co-morbitities, other complications, major issues, or if they are in their 80's or 90's. We do know the rate of fatalities from covid is way, way down, worldwide, due to the relatively weak, Omi and other recent mutations.

[spidermike007]

47 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Reaction .... 7 million

Don't have one/reaction, as didn't know any of them.

 

190 of the ~ 350 million population ... and you expect a reaction.

 

worldwide:  "There were 67.1 million deaths in 2022." 

... again, no reaction, as didn't personally know any of them.  Had a BIL die, but didn't really know him, or could even tell his name.

 

"The world population, therefore, increased by 65.81 million in 2022",   65,81 mill more births than deaths.

... reaction ... more people need to either die, or not be born, as the planet can sustain the increase in population for ever.

 

death & birth stats from this link:

https://ourworldindata.org/births-and-deaths#:~:text=There were 67.1 million deaths,region from 1950 to 2021.

The fact that many countries are experiencing declining birth rates is a very good thing for the planet. Recent estimates cite a strong possibility that the earth's population will actually start declining by 2050. Wouldn't that be wonderful? 

 

Improvements in access to modern contraception and the education of girls and women are generating widespread, sustained declines in fertility, and world population will likely peak in 2064 at around 9.7 billion, and then decline to about 8.8 billion by 2100 -- about 2 billion lower than some previous estimates, according to a new study published in The Lancet.

 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200715150444.htm

 

 

[zzaa09]

42 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

COVID-19 leading cause of death ranking

November 10, 2022

 

"At the time of this brief, COVID-19 is on track to be the third leading cause of death in the U.S. for the third year in a row. COVID-19 claimed 340,000 lives in 2020, 475,000 lives in 2021, and so far, has taken 230,000 lives in 2022 through September."

 

 

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/covid-19-leading-cause-of-death-ranking/

 

Conveniently omitted war and the like......

[dinsdale]

10 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

I don't want under or over reaction.... I want unadulterated unbiased facts. 

 

 

Given population increases and expected death rates based on that... The excess deaths in 2021 was 9.9 million.

That information is the unadulterated facts regarding how deadly Covid-19 was... very damning evidence that covid ‘was’ clearly very dangerous. 

 

I’m not disputing any of that - this source matches your information https://ourworldindata.org/births-and-deaths

 

 

For the purposes of this debate I am questioning how dangerous Covid-19 remains, both on a community scale and on a global scale. 

 

For example, the same data source states road deaths at 1.2 million per year (for 2019)... 

What will be more dangerous in 2023 ??..... Covid-19 or using the roads ??? (in aggregate numbers of course). 

 

 

Thus, my curiosity surrounds the existing risks vs the concern we expend on said risk - is the concern we show towards Covid-19 still balanced ?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Your last paragraph is indeed an interesting one as big pharma has a role to play. For them obviously they want to draw this out as long as possible. For anyone who understands the risks associated with Omicron and that the pandemic is over then many will have a balanced attitude. The Thai govt. keeps coming out with nonsense that seems to keep people in fear. Guess they or their friends still have huge stocks of masks to sell. To give them credit it's been a long time since I've seen a push to get vaccinated although there was a story the other day suggesting being vaccinated/boosted, part of the reasoning being to help stop spread. Help stop the spread? This is the sort of nonsense that does not help one little bit. It is a scientific fact that vaccinations do not stop transmission. If I remember correctly this was a doctor maybe professor can't remember. CDC still talking about vaccinating 6 month old babies. This is ludicrous and may well go back to what I previously said about big pharma. 

So do we have a balanced view? Some do and obviously some don't. Not wearing a mask for me is balanced because the consequences of not wearing one are little to nothing. Jabbing a 6 month old baby against a virus which is mild by nature is not balanced. In my opinion it borders on criminal.