Big layoffs ahead in the automotive workshop sector - hold on to your hats!

[vinny41]

1 minute ago, JBChiangRai said:

No, forget the percentages, we are way past the innovators stage.

 

Tesla and it’s early buyers were the innovators, we are now well into the early adopter stage with a dozen or more manufacturers, offering EV’s and people all over the world, taking them up.

Its funny you quote % when it suits you and now it doesn't suit you you want to forget %

As I said maybe 10 years time when there nearly 6 million EV's on the road Thailand will be considered at the 

early adopter stage

[JBChiangRai]

1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

Its funny you quote % when it suits you and now it doesn't suit you you want to forget %

As I said maybe 10 years time when there nearly 6 million EV's on the road Thailand will be considered at the 

early adopter stage

It’s because I don’t agree with the exro article you quoted.  It looks like it’s been copied from a IT article and been doctored with percentages.  There is no way 20% of new car buyers in December and January are innovators.

 

The adoption cycle has nothing to do with existing vehicles on the road and has everything to do with the percentage of new vehicle purchases.

 

EV’s have been around over a decade, only the early Tesla roadster and Model S buyers were innovators, Model 3 buyers were early adopters.

 

I come from the IT sector, we see the adoption cycle regularly, sometimes several times a year with various products. I have 45 years experience of the adoption cycle.

 

EV’s are in the early adoption process and Norway is way past that too.

[vinny41]

21 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

It’s because I don’t agree with the exro article you quoted.  It looks like it’s been copied from a IT article and been doctored with percentages.  There is no way 20% of new car buyers in December and January are innovators.

 

The adoption cycle has nothing to do with existing vehicles on the road and has everything to do with the percentage of new vehicle purchases.

 

EV’s have been around over a decade, only the early Tesla roadster and Model S buyers were innovators, Model 3 buyers were early adopters.

 

I come from the IT sector, we see the adoption cycle regularly, sometimes several times a year with various products. I have 45 years experience of the adoption cycle.

 

EV’s are in the early adoption process and Norway is way past that too.

Total number of cars on the road  in Norway 2024  2,876,313

Cars on the road that are over 10 years old

Norway - 1,289,250

1. Norway - 28.7

 

[vinny41]

1 hour ago, JBChiangRai said:

It’s because I don’t agree with the exro article you quoted.  It looks like it’s been copied from a IT article and been doctored with percentages.  There is no way 20% of new car buyers in December and January are innovators.

 

The adoption cycle has nothing to do with existing vehicles on the road and has everything to do with the percentage of new vehicle purchases.

 

EV’s have been around over a decade, only the early Tesla roadster and Model S buyers were innovators, Model 3 buyers were early adopters.

 

I come from the IT sector, we see the adoption cycle regularly, sometimes several times a year with various products. I have 45 years experience of the adoption cycle.

 

EV’s are in the early adoption process and Norway is way past that too.

Total number of registered vehicles in Norway is currently 6,431,432

Total number of registered private cars in Norway is 2,917,435

Total number of registered electric cars in Norway is 599,169

When we look at total number of registered vehicles current electric cars represent a share of approx 10%

If we look at electric car share of just private cars the electric cars share of total registered cars is 20.5%

https://www.ssb.no/en/transport-og-reiseliv/landtransport/statistikk/bilparken

If the whole point of electric cars people need to stop focusing on just new car sales they need to focus on total number of all registered cars on the road 

if we look at total number of registered vehicles in Norway they clearly are at the

Innovators (2.5% of vehicles): The first stage goes from 0 – 2.5% of vehicles being electric in relation to overall on-the-road vehicles.

Not sure what your point of being from an IT background was

I have a background of being in IT since 1974 and have worked it IT for 40 years

[WhatMeWorry]

15 hours ago, Classic Ray said:

In low income/no road salt countries like Thailand, people will hang on to their ICE vehicles as long as they can. Governments cannot afford to implement scrappage schemes and there are plenty of 30/40 year old vehicles still in use.

 

Charging infrastructure coverage will be patchy and maintained poorly like the rest of the infrastructure. 
 

Whilst there are markets like this, car manufacturers and parts suppliers will continue to supply the demand.

 

I cannot see significant change in the next 20 years, especially when all the Chinese EVs start falling to pieces.

 

ICE workshop jobs are safe.

So true Classic Ray. I just got back from shopping at Central. It is a short distance but I was going to buy some food items and I did not want to carry them home. So I drove my Nissan Teana with a V6 engine to Central. As I was driving I thought that I really want to keep this car as long as possible because they just are not making larger sedans with V6 engines in Thailand anymore. I have 0.00% interest in an EV so I will baby my ICE and keep it running as long as possible.

[billd766]

6 hours ago, Ralf001 said:

Would you prefer I say something insulting ?

That is up to you.

[vinny41]

17 minutes ago, WhatMeWorry said:

So true Classic Ray. I just got back from shopping at Central. It is a short distance but I was going to buy some food items and I did not want to carry them home. So I drove my Nissan Teana with a V6 engine to Central. As I was driving I thought that I really want to keep this car as long as possible because they just are not making larger sedans with V6 engines in Thailand anymore. I have 0.00% interest in an EV so I will baby my ICE and keep it running as long as possible.

I can never understand Nissan marketing they withdrew the Teana, x-trail and march from sale and replaced them with nothing

[vinny41]

2 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

It’s because I don’t agree with the exro article you quoted.  It looks like it’s been copied from a IT article and been doctored with percentages.  There is no way 20% of new car buyers in December and January are innovators.

 

The adoption cycle has nothing to do with existing vehicles on the road and has everything to do with the percentage of new vehicle purchases.

 

EV’s have been around over a decade, only the early Tesla roadster and Model S buyers were innovators, Model 3 buyers were early adopters.

 

I come from the IT sector, we see the adoption cycle regularly, sometimes several times a year with various products. I have 45 years experience of the adoption cycle.

 

EV’s are in the early adoption process and Norway is way past that too.

The exro article explains the background of the article here

In this article, we apply Everett Rogers’ theory, Diffusion of Innovations, to electric car innovations in order to understand some of the characteristics of current early adopters of electric vehicles. In our examination of the EV adoption curve, we find five segments of adopter groups: Innovators, Early Adopters, Early Majority, Late Majority, and Laggards.

https://www.exro.com/industry-insights/early-adopters-of-electric-vehicles-the-ev-adoption-curve

Diffusion of Innovation Theory

https://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/mph-modules/sb/behavioralchangetheories/behavioralchangetheories4.html

A few years ago companies would publish their annual reports  with great fanfare we have 400,000 new subscribers because they offered special deals for new customers only ( A law in the UK has since banned this any deal has to be offered to all customers)

Look how well our sales team is doing 400,000 new customers what they made very difficult to find is the number of subscribers that had ceased or cancelled their service as gaining 400,000 new subscribers and losing 600,000 existing subscribers means your shareholders could work out overall you have lost 200,000 subscribers

EV adoption curve has to include all vehicles on the road otherwise EV will never be considered mass market if the majority of vehicles on the road are ICE

[JBChiangRai]

12 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Total number of registered vehicles in Norway is currently 6,431,432

Total number of registered private cars in Norway is 2,917,435

Total number of registered electric cars in Norway is 599,169

When we look at total number of registered vehicles current electric cars represent a share of approx 10%

If we look at electric car share of just private cars the electric cars share of total registered cars is 20.5%

https://www.ssb.no/en/transport-og-reiseliv/landtransport/statistikk/bilparken

If the whole point of electric cars people need to stop focusing on just new car sales they need to focus on total number of all registered cars on the road 

if we look at total number of registered vehicles in Norway they clearly are at the

Innovators (2.5% of vehicles): The first stage goes from 0 – 2.5% of vehicles being electric in relation to overall on-the-road vehicles.

Not sure what your point of being from an IT background was

I have a background of being in IT since 1974 and have worked it IT for 40 years

 

11 hours ago, vinny41 said:

I can never understand Nissan marketing they withdrew the Teana, x-trail and march from sale and replaced them with nothing

 

Two weeks ago S&P downgraded Nissan's credit rating to Junk, it's hardly surprising they are consolidating product lines, they are fighting to survive.  Ever since Ghosn left they have been in trouble.

 

11 hours ago, vinny41 said:

The exro article explains the background of the article here

In this article, we apply Everett Rogers’ theory, Diffusion of Innovations, to electric car innovations in order to understand some of the characteristics of current early adopters of electric vehicles. In our examination of the EV adoption curve, we find five segments of adopter groups: Innovators, Early Adopters, Early Majority, Late Majority, and Laggards.

https://www.exro.com/industry-insights/early-adopters-of-electric-vehicles-the-ev-adoption-curve

Diffusion of Innovation Theory

https://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/mph-modules/sb/behavioralchangetheories/behavioralchangetheories4.html

A few years ago companies would publish their annual reports  with great fanfare we have 400,000 new subscribers because they offered special deals for new customers only ( A law in the UK has since banned this any deal has to be offered to all customers)

Look how well our sales team is doing 400,000 new customers what they made very difficult to find is the number of subscribers that had ceased or cancelled their service as gaining 400,000 new subscribers and losing 600,000 existing subscribers means your shareholders could work out overall you have lost 200,000 subscribers

EV adoption curve has to include all vehicles on the road otherwise EV will never be considered mass market if the majority of vehicles on the road are ICE

 

If we take Norway, In 2020, 50% of new car sales were BEV, in 2022 it was almost 80%, today it's 90%.  You can't say this is the innovation stage. It's not even the early adoption stage.  I don't care what any report or theory says, common sense tells you it's way past innovation stage.  It doesn't matter how many vehicles are on the road, it's all about "current behaviour".

 

In Thailand, people were innovating 5 years ago with grey market Tesla's.  Innovators were buying MG EP's, ORA Good Cat, BYD Atto 3's.  I think we are in the early adoption stage or are at the tail end of it.

 

If we fast-forward to 2035, 100% of new car sales will be electric, if we use the flawed EXRO methodology, they will all be innovators, which is nonsense.

 

If you want to discuss IT careers, send me a PM, I'm always happy to discuss IT.

Edited March 17 by JBChiangRai
context

[Rampant Rabbit]

On 3/16/2024 at 10:02 AM, JBChiangRai said:

 

I think your figures are off but not by much.

 

The important thing to recognise is that sales and market share is accelerating.  Thailand is on it's way to mass EV adoption.  In another 11 years your only option for a new car will be EV.

No problem I bought one spare, I think its done 10000 km in 5 years, it hides in my garage , gets  run once  a  month, the other one used  daily should see me good for another 20 years........if they still sell diesel, who  knows? no one really. Cant see rural Thais  giving up their diesel pickups especially with the overloaded crap they carry.

Edited March 17 by Rampant Rabbit

[JBChiangRai]

2 minutes ago, Rampant Rabbit said:

No problem I bought one spare, I think its done 10000 km in 5 years, it hides in my garage , gets  run once  a  month, the other one used  daily should see me good for another 20 years........if they still sell diesel, who  knows? no one really

 

Maybe you should buy another before 2035...

[Rampant Rabbit]

2 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Maybe you should buy another before 2035...

im 87 now🤣

Actually they do an electric version of this in China but towing and weight are  not good  on electric vehicles, its the same basic pick up chevrolet/;isuzu with a battery  https://www.qinglingisuzu.com/pure-electric-truck/qingling-isuzu-commercial-electric-pickup.html

Edited March 17 by Rampant Rabbit

[JBChiangRai]

I bought a new Toyota Vigo here years ago, I changed it for a Ford Ranger in 2013.  I was stunned at the difference in how they drove.

 

The Toyota was noisy, badly sprung and fairly spartan inside for a top model, the Ford drove like a saloon car, far quieter, smoother and much more comfortable suspension too but it was in and out the dealership with niggly little problems.  Air con activators sticking, battery not charging properly, they could never fix that, even the guy from Ford's Thailand HQ couldn't fix it, they tried to tell me it was a special feature of the battery management unit (after they made me buy an unnecessary new battery).

 

EV's are so much simpler, only 1% of the moving parts.

[Ralf001]

1 minute ago, JBChiangRai said:

I bought a new Toyota Vigo here years ago, I changed it for a Ford Ranger in 2013.  I was stunned at the difference in how they drove.

 

The Toyota was noisy, badly sprung and fairly spartan inside for a top model, the Ford drove like a saloon car, far quieter, smoother and much more comfortable suspension too but it was in and out the dealership with niggly little problems.  Air con activators sticking, battery not charging properly, they could never fix that, even the guy from Ford's Thailand HQ couldn't fix it, they tried to tell me it was a special feature of the battery management unit (after they made me buy an unnecessary new battery).

 

EV's are so much simpler, only 1% of the moving parts.

 

Walk into both Ford and Toyota dealerships today and drive each pickup top model.

 

Your experience in 2013 remains the same today.... Toyota are farmer spec !

[JBChiangRai]

Just now, Ralf001 said:

 

Walk into both Ford and Toyota dealerships today and drive each pickup top model.

 

Your experience in 2013 remains the same today.... Toyota are farmer spec !

 

Yes I agree with you.  I always advise people to test drive each model and then decide, if you do that, the choice is a no-brainer.

 

But take out the extended warranty on the Ford or you'll be sorry!

[Ralf001]

Just now, JBChiangRai said:

 

 

 

But take out the extended warranty on the Ford or you'll be sorry!

 

Would not bother.... Getting Ford to cover a warranty claim is like getting blood from a stone.

[JBChiangRai]

5 minutes ago, Ralf001 said:

 

Would not bother.... Getting Ford to cover a warranty claim is like getting blood from a stone.

 

They were pretty good with me, but did make me buy a battery which wasn't needed.

[Madgee]

On 3/16/2024 at 9:41 AM, JBChiangRai said:

You don't understand the concept.

 

Why would you need a place to charge 100 cars every hour?  Most of your charging is done at home overnight.

You keep harping on about 'Most of your charging is done at home overnight' ...... My neighbour desperately wants an EV (stupid man) mainly because he thinks they are fashionable but cannot charge it at home as his car would be parked on the road away from his house. How about those living in condo blocks with very few chargers or even not allowed in the car parks?   
Respectfully, you use this point over and over again, that's your situation so sometimes start seeing it from another perspective. I'm not doubting the (at present) attractiveness of owning an EV for some but an EV certainly is not suitable for me and many others. 

[JBChiangRai]

6 minutes ago, Madgee said:

You keep harping on about 'Most of your charging is done at home overnight' ...... My neighbour desperately wants an EV (stupid man) mainly because he thinks they are fashionable but cannot charge it at home as his car would be parked on the road away from his house. How about those living in condo blocks with very few chargers or even not allowed in the car parks?   
Respectfully, you use this point over and over again, that's your situation so sometimes start seeing it from another perspective. I'm not doubting the (at present) attractiveness of owning an EV for some but an EV certainly is not suitable for me and many others. 

 

Nobody is saying EV's are for everyone.  If you live in a condo or have to park on the street, it makes owning them challenging.  Not impossible but challenging.  My 76 year old lady-friend is buying one and she lives off grid and will only charge it at BYD while she eats a free breakfast once a week or other restaurants and shopping malls.

 

Some enlightened condo blocks are already fitting charging points, it is happening but too slowly.

 

Harping on? I prefer to put it as educating the ignorant.  It's a common misunderstanding that all 7/11's or petrol stations need charging stations.  It's a common misunderstanding that you need a charging station within 150km of your house if you charge at home. It's a common misunderstanding that they are more prone to catch fire. It's a common misunderstanding that Thailand's charging networks is poorly developed.  I could go on, but I don't wish to be accused of harping on...

[Photoguy21]

On 3/15/2024 at 7:33 PM, Korat Kiwi said:

There is the beginnings of a backlash in many countries already. 

 

Chinese taxi companies that put big dollars into a complete overhaul are finding no resale in used EVs. 

 

Power prices are rising and some countries are introducing road user charges for EVs. 

 

So all is not as some people paint it. 

 

Battery replacement is also another big cost.  7 years life on 1st Gen EVs.  I feel for those poor suckers. 

 

I think in the future EVs will take over,  but not at this moment.  Too many unknowns 

I reckon EV's will in the future be seen as a scam with no second hand value and in reality they are am interim before the next idea is taken up. Governments like them, despite not having the network to support them if everyone changed to EV's.

[vinny41]

39 minutes ago, Photoguy21 said:

I reckon EV's will in the future be seen as a scam with no second hand value and in reality they are am interim before the next idea is taken up. Governments like them, despite not having the network to support them if everyone changed to EV's.

CEO steps down after being hit with expensive EV repairs and low resale prices following purchase of 100,000 Teslas

https://fortune.com/2024/03/15/ceo-steps-down-prices-following-purchase-teslas/

Musk's price cuts crash Tesla values

https://www.fudzilla.com/news/58616-musk-s-price-cuts-crash-tesla-values

Rental Company Sixt Phases Out Tesla EVs From Fleet

The German rental car giant says the reduced residual value, and high repair costs as the reasons why it's dropping Teslas.

https://insideevs.com/news/699689/tesla-sixt-ev-fleet/

Musk said Tesla cars would rise in value, but the opposite happened

Its simple cutting prices because your sales are falling does have a knoc

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/03/cars/musk-tesla-cars-value-ev-prices/index.html

cutting prices due to falling sales does affect the value of the cars for  existing customers

[Rampant Rabbit]

2 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

I bought a new Toyota Vigo here years ago, I changed it for a Ford Ranger in 2013.  I was stunned at the difference in how they drove.

 

The Toyota was noisy, badly sprung and fairly spartan inside for a top model, the Ford drove like a saloon car, far quieter, smoother and much more comfortable suspension too but it was in and out the dealership with niggly little problems.  Air con activators sticking, battery not charging properly, they could never fix that, even the guy from Ford's Thailand HQ couldn't fix it, they tried to tell me it was a special feature of the battery management unit (after they made me buy an unnecessary new battery).

 

EV's are so much simpler, only 1% of the moving parts.

I drove many manufacturers before deciding, I found the Ford  like a  wallowy sofa, didnt  like it  at  all. That said  the Ranger always did well in tests.

[Ralf001]

1 minute ago, Rampant Rabbit said:

That said  the Ranger always did well in tests.

 

Its a good thing and is the #1 selling pickup in Aus.

I expect that reign to be challenged when the new Hilux arrives on the scene but Ford will also be releasing the Ranger XXL around the same time so....

[JBChiangRai]

1 hour ago, Photoguy21 said:

I reckon EV's will in the future be seen as a scam with no second hand value and in reality they are am interim before the next idea is taken up. Governments like them, despite not having the network to support them if everyone changed to EV's.

 

If they are an interim, then what is the next one?

 

Everyone couldn't change to EV's instantly, government networks can adequately cope with the rate of uptake of EV's..

 

59 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

CEO steps down after being hit with expensive EV repairs and low resale prices following purchase of 100,000 Teslas

https://fortune.com/2024/03/15/ceo-steps-down-prices-following-purchase-teslas/

Musk's price cuts crash Tesla values

https://www.fudzilla.com/news/58616-musk-s-price-cuts-crash-tesla-values

Rental Company Sixt Phases Out Tesla EVs From Fleet

The German rental car giant says the reduced residual value, and high repair costs as the reasons why it's dropping Teslas.

https://insideevs.com/news/699689/tesla-sixt-ev-fleet/

Musk said Tesla cars would rise in value, but the opposite happened

Its simple cutting prices because your sales are falling does have a knoc

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/03/cars/musk-tesla-cars-value-ev-prices/index.html

cutting prices due to falling sales does affect the value of the cars for  existing customers

 

Hertz quoted weak demand as the reason they disposed of their Tesla's.

 

Customers don't like it when you cut the prices of your product.  It might tempt some new customers but it really upsets customers holding the product.

 

Hertz bought 100,000 Tesla's if I recall correctly, Musk dropping the price and 100,000 used vehicles flooding the market won't have gone down well.

 

At least one analyst is predicting Tesla will ship less cars this year than last year and make a loss.  Now is not a time to hold Tesla stock.

[vinny41]

32 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

If they are an interim, then what is the next one?

 

Everyone couldn't change to EV's instantly, government networks can adequately cope with the rate of uptake of EV's..

 

 

Hertz quoted weak demand as the reason they disposed of their Tesla's.

 

Customers don't like it when you cut the prices of your product.  It might tempt some new customers but it really upsets customers holding the product.

 

Hertz bought 100,000 Tesla's if I recall correctly, Musk dropping the price and 100,000 used vehicles flooding the market won't have gone down well.

 

At least one analyst is predicting Tesla will ship less cars this year than last year and make a loss.  Now is not a time to hold Tesla stock.

Hertz announced its EV sell-down plans in January, citing lackluster demand, costly depreciation and expensive repairs

not just weak demand combination of all the above 

Rental Company Sixt Phases Out Tesla EVs From Fleet

The German rental car giant says the reduced residual value, and high repair costs as the reasons why it's dropping Teslas.

https://insideevs.com/news/699689/tesla-sixt-ev-fleet/

meanwhile more bad news for BYD international sales 

BYD’s Quality Problems Hit International Markets: Report

EVs piling in European warehouses and logistics-related quality issues are new headaches for the world’s largest EV maker.

While mold can be a common occurrence in cars, especially when they’re stored for a long duration in humid weather, the issue with BYD cars in Europe was that they didn’t receive the proper treatment to have the mold removed.

In Thailand, where Chinese EVs have taken the domestic automotive market by storm, BYD’s quality issues seem to be mounting. Complaints of paint and plastic peeling have become public

https://insideevs.com/news/712148/byd-quality-problems-hit-international-markets/

China EV imports are ‘landing in Europe with mold’ - 10,000 unsold cars sit in warehouses

At the end of 2023, BYD had over 10,000 passenger cars sitting in European warehouses; the certificates authorizing their sale in the European Union will expire soon, The Wall Street Journal reports.

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/cars/1877252/china-ev-imports-europe-mold-cars-warehouses

UK electric share of the market is 2.1%

https://uk.motor1.com/news/710991/car-numbers-european-roads-by-country/

[Rampant Rabbit]

1 hour ago, Ralf001 said:

 

Its a good thing and is the #1 selling pickup in Aus.

I expect that reign to be challenged when the new Hilux arrives on the scene but Ford will also be releasing the Ranger XXL around the same time so....

It might be a good  thing for many but I really didnt like it.

[Ralf001]

2 minutes ago, Rampant Rabbit said:

It might be a good  thing for many but I really didnt like it.

Yeah, iam with you.

[Photoguy21]

1 hour ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

If they are an interim, then what is the next one?

 

Everyone couldn't change to EV's instantly, government networks can adequately cope with the rate of uptake of EV's..

 

 

Hertz quoted weak demand as the reason they disposed of their Tesla's.

 

Customers don't like it when you cut the prices of your product.  It might tempt some new customers but it really upsets customers holding the product.

 

Hertz bought 100,000 Tesla's if I recall correctly, Musk dropping the price and 100,000 used vehicles flooding the market won't have gone down well.

 

At least one analyst is predicting Tesla will ship less cars this year than last year and make a loss.  Now is not a time to hold Tesla stock.

No idea as to what the next one will be but a lot of effort is going into Hydrogen. That doesn't mean it will end up as viable but we just don't know as yet.

[JBChiangRai]

17 minutes ago, Photoguy21 said:

No idea as to what the next one will be but a lot of effort is going into Hydrogen. That doesn't mean it will end up as viable but we just don't know as yet.

 

We do know the cost of Hydrogen, it's about 5 times more expensive per km than a battery EV, it could be even more expensive if they tax Hydrogen.

 

There could be a shortage of Lithium which will encourage Hydrogen cars.  But bear in mind, if your Hydrogen car is going to be more expensive to run than an EV, it will need to be cheaper to buy.

Edited March 17 by JBChiangRai

[Ralf001]

15 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

We do know the cost of Hydrogen, it's about 5 times more expensive per km than a battery EV, it could be even more expensive if they tax Hydrogen.

 

 

 

Cost of the EV battery includes manufacture and destruction ?