Experts Say Another Thai Military Coup is Unlikely

[lordgrinz]

I'll take that bet, B10 million says another coup is imminent. 

[Kerryd]

Bet they said that last time as well (in 2014).

And the time before that (in 2006).

Sheer coincidence that both times were when a Shinawatra was PM ?

[Sydebolle]

Other experts say that the Earth is flat ......... 

[wozzlegummich]

There has already been a military "SOFT" coup by the conservative faction when they weaponized the Constitutional Court and dismissed Pita, Move Forward and Srettha. Thaksin's daughter will be next.

[No Forwarding Address]

Big Joke is not a happy camper, had aspirations of making Chief of Police, not a far fetch to be Prime Minister?        Cheers

[sandyf]

59 minutes ago, Tropicalevo said:

Not from what I have seen and heard.

They are started by military wanting more power and funded by uber rich folk who are concerned that others are after their ill gotten gains.

It  doesn't really matter what you have seen and heard from elsewhere, the issue is in Thailand. The last 2 coups have been nothing more than the military taking control in the interests of peace rather than aggression. 2006 was the the only coup in history where no shots were fired.

Thailand is an economically divided nation and the last 2 coups have resulted from politicians trying to fuel the division and deliberately create civil unrest. The economically deprived are in the minority and believe it or not there are large parts of Thailand the are more than happy to see the army step in and prevent any move towards civil war.

It is not out of the question for politicians to once again try and bring about a disruptive situation, but the outcome will be little different from the past.

[geoffrobbo]

Oh dear. Now is the time to worry

[Hanuman2547]

That's what the "experts" always say.  Then, a little later, there is a coup.  

[Purdey]

I am at a loss to explain why if Thaksin was guilty of corruption, his billions were not confiscated. They must have had the evidence.

[Hardcastle P]

5 hours ago, mdr224 said:

Does anyone listen to experts anymore

Ex = past ,spurt = Drip under pressure. Let's face the the military don't take orders from government they give orders to the government. 

[brianthainess]

10 minutes ago, Purdey said:

I am at a loss to explain why if Thaksin was guilty of corruption, his billions were not confiscated. They must have had the evidence.

Thaksin reduced the military spending/budget they didn't like that one bit.

[Thumbs]

Not going to be another coup because that would mean elections and they only just managed to keep the move forward party from taking charge, now they have the Thaksin clan in charge which isn’t ideal for the “ elites” but better than the alternative, and they also have some control over the Thaksin family due to his criminal convictions and those of his sister which are pending . we will likely see her return in coming year if they tow the line and don’t make waves. 

 

[Hunz Kittisak]

12 minutes ago, Thumbs said:

Not going to be another coup because that would mean elections and they only just managed to keep the move forward party from taking charge, now they have the Thaksin clan in charge which isn’t ideal for the “ elites” but better than the alternative, and they also have some control over the Thaksin family due to his criminal convictions and those of his sister which are pending . we will likely see her return in coming year if they tow the line and don’t make waves. 

 

Astute observation 

those coup mongers not getting their coup this time coz the military is neutered somewhat….always remember who the generals answer to

[Hunz Kittisak]

4 hours ago, Tropicalevo said:

Not from what I have seen and heard.

They are started by military wanting more power and funded by uber rich folk who are concerned that others are after their ill gotten gains.

I agree if coups have public support there wouldn’t have been protests after each and every coup

[jayboy]

6 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

I lived in Bangkok when the last two coups "happened". They didn't just happen. People were expecting them months before the actually happened.

The coups were no surprise because the corrupt Thaksin and his lackeys openly ignored the laws and enriched himself, his family and his cronies. And the state authorities, like police, prosecutors and judges, didn't do anything against him.

Many people at those times agreed that something has to happen to stop him. The legal authorities didn't stop him, and this is why the coups were initiated and successful. People on the streets gave flowers and soft drinks to the soldiers. They welcomed the coups. I don't know these facts from history books, I was here. "Everybody", at least in Bangkok, was happy that Thaksin was stopped.

 

Now Thaksin is free again and meddling even more in politics again. Lots of people don't like that. And it has to stop. Now the question is, will the police, prosecutors and judges stop him and his lackeys this time? I think they will, because he does not have as much power as before. There is a lot of opposition against him, and he does have some support, but way less than years ago.

 

I think there are basically three options:

a) Thaksin realizes his mistakes and meddles less in politics, or at least not as open.

b) He and his daughter and other enablers will be prosecuted and removed from power.

c) Another coup.

 

A is unlikely, Thaksin is ignorant and does not want to back down.

B is, IMHO, likely. It's just a question of time. Maybe when the pressure gets too high, then A will also happen.

C is still far away. It can only happen if A and B do not happen. At least for now, I don't think that will happen.

 

No, I am no political expert. But after living here for almost 30 years I have an idea what is going on. It's an idea, and my personal opinion, which obviously can be wrong.

 

This is obviously nonsense (particularly the fatuous explanation of the military coup) but it certainly represents a view point shared by some in the Bangkok middle class, though increasingly elderly and irrelevant like Thaksin himself.

 

Being in Thailand does not in itself convey knowledge or wisdom.To be frank although you claim to have been here for 30 years I would with all due respect suggest you actually have no idea what is going on.That would involve getting outside your bubble and starting some serious attempt to reach an understanding.I have been here for much longer than you but that means nothing, and I would never claim it gave me some special insight.I do however understand the significance - which you fail even to mention - that the arrogant and selfish elites and their captive functionaries have deprived the Thai people of their chosen government.These elites hate Thaksin but have also used him and he has willingly betrayed the people who once put their trust in him.

 

As an aside, any report which states "experts say" without being more specific shouldn't be taken too seriously.

[Caldera]

10 hours ago, webfact said:

Although Thailand has experienced frequent military coups since 1932, political analysts today say the conditions for another coup are not favourable.

 

Those "experts" said the same before the last coup, until it happened "to everyone's surprise". The army leadership said the same, right until they staged a coup.

[thecyclist]

7 hours ago, Homburg said:

You know that a coup is likely when they start to deny it.

When the generals themselves deny, yes.

Here it was  the "experts ".

Nevertheless, they have been announcing for decades that Thailand has " moved on".

 

[billd766]

8 hours ago, thesetat2013 said:

I guess it all depends on how the people see Thaksins involvement as he tries to do the PM job via his daughter. Personally, I think the people are just waiting and watching. A coup may be a solution if the current PM is seen as unable to do her job or if the people throw their hands up and say enough is enough with Thaksins clan. I think, the future will see another coup within a couple years as Thaksins becomes bolder with every decision he dictates to the press. People know what is happening and see him doing the PM job. It is only a matter of time before the democratic parties begin protesting

A military coup is NEVER the solution. otherwise Thailand would be among the leading countries of the world, having had so many military coups since 1932.

[thesetat2013]

19 minutes ago, billd766 said:

A military coup is NEVER the solution. otherwise Thailand would be among the leading countries of the world, having had so many military coups since 1932.

Thailand has had 11 successful coups. the chart they hit number 4 as the most in the world. But never fear because Thailand always aims to be the hub of everything. They only need 4 more to be number 1. 

https://clinecenter.illinois.edu/project/research-themes/democracy-and-development/coup-detat-project/freq-table

[thesetat2013]

5 hours ago, Kerryd said:

Bet they said that last time as well (in 2014).

And the time before that (in 2006).

Sheer coincidence that both times were when a Shinawatra was PM ?

If i recall correctly, just prior to the coup when Prayut did it. They said the Army would not interfere. Their idea of non interference with the government means a coup is on its way. 

[crazykopite]

Total BS a coup could happen at anytime especially when everyone’s gone to bed for a quick 40 winks 

[candide]

2 hours ago, Hunz Kittisak said:

Astute observation 

those coup mongers not getting their coup this time coz the military is neutered somewhat….always remember who the generals answer to

One of the few relevant comments in this thread.

 

This article ignores the most important fact:

 

The armed forces located in Bangkok are now under direct Royal command.

 

The army chief or any other general have no power to order them to make a coup.

[cowellandrew]

TAT are missing an opportunity here!

Visit a family resort and view the military on the streets,

I've reviewed quite a few 3 in Thailand 1 in the Philippines,  1 in Egypt 

😁😁

[kwilco]

Discussing the possibility of a coup in the same tones as one might talk about the weather seems a uniquely Thai thing. It also is a sad reflection on the state of "democracy" in Thailand that it appears perfectly acceptable - even by those who oppose the instigators!

[BangkokReady]

A coup by whom?  The military is already in control.

[sandyf]

3 hours ago, jayboy said:

which you fail even to mention - that the arrogant and selfish elites and their captive functionaries have deprived the Thai people of their chosen government.

I would suggest that you think you have some insight to make such a statement. The protests of 2013 & 14 are well documented and they were what led to the coup in 2014.

It was in fact the anti-government protesters that deprived the Thai people of the government of the day.

Of course you are perfectly free to believe the coup would have taken place irrespective of there being any protests.

At the end of the day it should never be forgotten that following the coup the King appointed the military government to run the country. I witnessed first hand the crowds at the funeral, about 5 hours to get to the coffin, like that for months on end.

[sandyf]

2 hours ago, billd766 said:

A military coup is NEVER the solution. otherwise Thailand would be among the leading countries of the world, having had so many military coups since 1932.

All about getting it right first time Bill. The 2 largest economies in the world have created some sort of unity by military force. Even the UK had Oliver Cromwell.

[Crossy]

8 hours ago, lordgrinz said:

I'll take that bet, B10 million says another coup is imminent. 

 

Shhhhh. It's tomorrow!!

 

[jaideedave]

11 hours ago, NorthernRyland said:

8 hours ago, bob smith said:

They always say that right before another coup!!

 

bob.

Yup...the tanks are being refilled as we speak Bob.

 

[billd766]

16 minutes ago, sandyf said:

All about getting it right first time Bill. The 2 largest economies in the world have created some sort of unity by military force. Even the UK had Oliver Cromwell.

Even Oliver Cromwell did not last that long.

 

Oliver Cromwell (born April 25, 1599, Huntingdon, Huntingdonshire, England—died September 3, 1658, London) was an English soldier and statesman, who led parliamentary forces in the English Civil Wars and was lord protector of England, Scotland, and Ireland (1653–58) during the republican Commonwealth.

 

There is an interesting biography here

 

https://www.britannica.com/biography/Oliver-Cromwell

 

His was the last military coup (that I know of) in the UK and that was nearly 300 years ago.