Far more people at risk of rising seas than feared - climate study

By Matthew Green

 

Residential houses submerged in floodwaters following heavy rainfall are seen at a town in Shantou, Guangdong province, China September 2, 2018. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Climate change will put three times more people at risk of coastal flooding by 2050 than previously thought, according to a study published on Tuesday, with swathes of Asia and cities in North America and Europe all vulnerable to rising seas.

 

The research by Climate Central https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12808-z, a U.S.-based non-profit climate science and news organisation, underscored the scale of the upheaval projected to unfold as global warming increasingly threatens some of the world's most densely-populated regions.

 

The study found that 300 million people are now living on land that is likely to flood at least once a year on average by mid-century without adequate sea defences, even if governments manage to make sharp cuts in emissions.

 

Earlier estimates had put that figure at about 80 million. China, Bangladesh, India and Vietnam account for the bulk of the at-risk population.

 

The authors said they had used artificial intelligence to correct systematic errors in a previous dataset that had suggested many inhabited coastal zones were at higher elevations -- and thus safer -- than they actually are.

 

"We now understand that the threat from sea-level rise and coastal flooding is far greater than we previously thought," said Benjamin Strauss, chief executive of Climate Central and co-author of the three-year study.

 

"It's also true that the benefits from cutting climate pollution are far greater than we previously thought – this changes the whole benefit-cost equation," Strauss told Reuters.

 

The threat that advancing seas will overwhelm the ability of countries to build coastal defences and force many millions of people to migrate has long been regarded as one of the most potentially destabilising impacts of the climate crisis.

 

The risks were underlined last month when the U.N.-backed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a landmark report on oceans that said sea levels could rise by one metre (3.3 ft) by 2100 -- ten times the rate in the 20th century -- if carbon emissions keep climbing.

 

Even if governments manage some curbs on emissions, the new study, published in Nature Communications, said that about 237 million people spread across China, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand are likely to face annual flooding by mid-century, unless they establish adequate sea defences.

 

By 2100, if emissions continue unchecked, and ice sheets rapidly disintegrate, then land where 250 million people now live in those six countries will fall below the waterline at high tide -- putting almost five times more people at risk than assessments based on previous elevation data had found.

 

An interactive, zoomable map https://bit.ly/31XU6TV 

produced by Climate Central so people can view their neighbourhoods also showed that large areas of the Netherlands, London, New York, Miami, Tokyo and other parts of the industrialised world are at risk.

 

The study, which found that today's dykes, sea walls and levees already allow 110 million people to live below the high tide line, did not factor in the impact of these or possible future defences, the authors said, citing a lack of data.

 

Although a certain amount of sea-level rise is baked into the climate system due to a legacy of past carbon emissions, rapid cuts in greenhouse gas pollution now could steer the world away from worse coastal flooding by century's end, the study found.

 

The authors urged governments to urgently conduct surveys to find out how feasible it might be to hold back the rising waters as well as take action to reverse carbon emissions, which hit a record high last year.

 

"We don't know whether today's coastal defences will be sufficient for tomorrow's sea levels," Strauss said. "Every day of warning we've had for a hurricane saves lives and property. Every decade counts in preparing for sea-level rise."

 

(Reporting by Matthew Green; Editing by Alexandra Hudson)

 

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-10-31

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Bangkok projection

35 minutes ago, thaitero said:

Bangkok projection

I foresee some excellent deals on 1st and 2nd floor condo's coming up in Bangkok!

yawnn yawn bluddy  yawn........25 years ago the Maldives was going to be underwater......its still there

https://onenewsnow.com/science-tech/2018/09/22/30-yrs-later-global-warming-still-hasnt-sunk-maldives

This  link wont work in google  chrome for me ( maybe they dont  want you to read it)  but works in Opera.maybe a geographic  location limit?

At 2mm a year the sea will rise 160 mm in 80 years, that's half a foot, not 3 and a half feet. We have increased CO2 by 40% and have not seen a correlation with sea level rise. What sort of junk science is predicting a 500% increase in the rate of sea level rise

1 hour ago, webfact said:

now could steer the world away from worse coastal flooding

could, would, might ,perhaps................pah

1 minute ago, canuckamuck said:

At 2mm a year the sea will rise 160 mm in 80 years, that's half a foot, not 3 and a half feet. We have increased CO2 by 40% and have not seen a correlation with sea level rise. What sort of junk science is predicting a 500% increase in the rate of sea level rise

The one that wants your money via taxes as theyve run out of things to tax

that Reuters photo... well the Chinese are well known of inundating whole towns, for more dams, for more power

 - and convenient for culling...

The deniers are up early this morning.

Just now, neeray said:

The deniers are up early this morning.

supposedly up to our necks!!

13 minutes ago, neeray said:

The deniers are up early this morning.

It ain't much, but it's honest work.

I thought the problem with Bangkok and its surrounds was the land subsiding through both natural and man-made factors rather than the rising seas?

the seas are not Rising with mans' help...

 - they are moving sideways

 

18 minutes ago, canuckamuck said:

It ain't much, but it's honest work.

Yeap. Honest work, eyes wide shut.

1 hour ago, webfact said:

The study found that 300 million people are now living on land that is likely to flood at least once a year on average by mid-century without adequate sea defences, even if governments manage to make sharp cuts in emissions.

Perhaps if people stopped overpopulating the planet they wouldn't be living on natural flooding areas, then complaining when it floods.

It's like buying a house next to an airport then complaining about the planes.

Self inflicted problem.

43 minutes ago, canuckamuck said:

At 2mm a year the sea will rise 160 mm in 80 years, that's half a foot, not 3 and a half feet. We have increased CO2 by 40% and have not seen a correlation with sea level rise. What sort of junk science is predicting a 500% increase in the rate of sea level rise

Climate alarmism science?

34 minutes ago, moobie said:

I thought the problem with Bangkok and its surrounds was the land subsiding through both natural and man-made factors rather than the rising seas?

Correct. They suck so much water from under the city it is subsiding. The other problem is that it was always very low, and at risk of flooding from the river.

They should have put in proper flood embankments along the river decades ago, but as usual that won't happen till it's too late.

 

Never mind, they can just moor the new submarines on the river to propel the water away:-)

1 hour ago, canuckamuck said:

At 2mm a year the sea will rise 160 mm in 80 years, that's half a foot, not 3 and a half feet. We have increased CO2 by 40% and have not seen a correlation with sea level rise. What sort of junk science is predicting a 500% increase in the rate of sea level rise

The rate of sea rise will be exponential not gradual steps of 2mm a year, when it really starts it will have a run away effect, unstoppable, bring it on, my family's land is over 400 meters above sea level, my son will benefit from the increase in the price of land and farmers may start to get a fair price for their produce.

4 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

The rate of sea rise will be exponential not gradual steps of 2mm a year, when it really starts it will have a run away effect, unstoppable, bring it on, my family's land is over 400 meters above sea level, my son will benefit from the increase in the price of land and farmers may start to get a fair price for their produce.

Wet and warm is better for life.

2 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

The rate of sea rise will be exponential not gradual steps of 2mm a year, when it really starts it will have a run away effect, unstoppable, bring it on, my family's land is over 400 meters above sea level, my son will benefit from the increase in the price of land and farmers may start to get a fair price for their produce.

Yeah, that's what they say. I guess its OK to be spooky on Halloween. Let me know when it is actually documented as an observed phenomenon. So far they have wiffed on every prediction of doom

2 minutes ago, canuckamuck said:

Yeah, that's what they say. I guess its OK to be spooky on Halloween. Let me know when it is actually documented as an observed phenomenon. So far they have wiffed on every prediction of doom

Remember when the scientists were telling us we were going to be in an ice age by now? Not that long ago, either. I remember it well.

1 hour ago, canuckamuck said:

At 2mm a year the sea will rise 160 mm in 80 years, that's half a foot, not 3 and a half feet. We have increased CO2 by 40% and have not seen a correlation with sea level rise. What sort of junk science is predicting a 500% increase in the rate of sea level rise

The science that gets well paid and allows governments to tax us even more

1 hour ago, canuckamuck said:

At 2mm a year the sea will rise 160 mm in 80 years, that's half a foot, not 3 and a half feet. We have increased CO2 by 40% and have not seen a correlation with sea level rise. What sort of junk science is predicting a 500% increase in the rate of sea level rise

New study finds sea level rise accelerating

The rate of global sea level rise has been accelerating in recent decades, rather than increasing steadily, according to a new study based on 25 years of NASA and European satellite data...

If the rate of ocean rise continues to change at this pace, sea level will rise 26 inches (65 centimeters) by 2100 — enough to cause significant problems for coastal cities, according to the new assessment by Nerem and colleagues from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland; CU Boulder; the University of South Florida in Tampa; and Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia...

"This is almost certainly a conservative estimate," Nerem said.

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2680/new-study-finds-sea-level-rise-accelerating/

13 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Remember when the scientists were telling us we were going to be in an ice age by now? Not that long ago, either. I remember it well.

I am still searching for a past climate prediction that actually came true.

Do not build in flood plains or to close to the waters of any lakes rivers

or the ocean. My granny told me that in the 60s, and I still think she was

a very smart person.

Geezer

3 hours ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

Do not build in flood plains or to close to the waters of any lakes rivers or the ocean. My granny told me that in the 60s, and I still think she was a very smart person.

Geezer

 

I somewhat disagree with lakes. They are very easy to control. If it is a reservoir that's different. In all my time growing up in Minnesota in the land of lakes I never heard of a natural lake flooding catastrophically if it wasn't connected to some sort of a flowage.

2 hours ago, canuckamuck said:

We have increased CO2 by 40% and have not seen a correlation with sea level rise

 

Simply because the main element is not CO2 but water vapor ...

 

Forgot the link 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas

 

16 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

New study finds sea level rise accelerating

The rate of global sea level rise has been accelerating in recent decades, rather than increasing steadily, according to a new study based on 25 years of NASA and European satellite data...

If the rate of ocean rise continues to change at this pace, sea level will rise 26 inches (65 centimeters) by 2100 — enough to cause significant problems for coastal cities, according to the new assessment by Nerem and colleagues from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland; CU Boulder; the University of South Florida in Tampa; and Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia...

"This is almost certainly a conservative estimate," Nerem said.

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2680/new-study-finds-sea-level-rise-accelerating/

Lots of people in NZ live next to the sea, probably most. If there was any detectable rise in level the government ( that is all into the man made climate change biz ) would be shouting it from every roof top. Actual rise is about 1mm a year. Not enough to notice in a decade.

Personally. I'll believe it when people start noticing a real rise, which isn't yet.

As for the future, the dinosaurs had a wake up call, and humans are no less vulnerable to all sorts of catastrophes. Another Krakatoa could happen any time.

Given the disregard that humans have for their environment or the creatures that live in it with us, I doubt that any real effort will be made till it's too late anyway. We are terrible custodians of planet earth.

Yes "Far more people at risk". So Profound! World population grows, more people, more risk.

No worries, Artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics will cure all woes in our future  555

3 hours ago, thaitero said:

Bangkok projection

Looks like Pattaya could become the next capital of Thailand, is there any empty gogo bar available for the government?