When will it all go back to 'normal'?

[scorecard]

I guess many folks are wondering / have concerns about how long the current circumstances will last. For many reasons, many of us (all over the world) have deadline dates on visas and many other items. I have Thai PR and I'm now concerned about being able to renew my exit/re-entry stamps, and get a renewal of the 5 year entry in my red police book which is needed in August 2020.

 

I well understand that nobody knows what's really ahead for any country and when the situation might start to go back to 'normal'.

 

However, has anybody seen any expert comment (from anywhere) on a forecast of when things will start to relax and there can be more open travel etc., etc?

 

Please share...

[Chazar]

Thais  have  a  short  attention  span

[scorecard]

17 minutes ago, Chazar said:

Thais  have  a  short  attention  span

How does that connect to my original post?

[Tayaout]

My guess is 6-12 months. Expert say 18 months. 

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/18/politics/contingency-planning-18-months-coronavirus/index.html

[scubascuba3]

Depends when they develop the test to see if someone's had the virus, plus the vaccination plus treatment, these are game changers. Many months, maybe next year

[Curt1591]

1 hour ago, scorecard said:

However, has anybody seen any expert comment (from anywhere) on a forecast of when things will start to relax and there can be more open travel etc., etc?

Unfortunately, I have read "experts" that have stated anything from the entire thing being a hoax, to it taking a couple years to level out.

[shy coconut]

The chief medical spokesman in the UK was saying progress was being made

on a test for antibodies which would determine whether someone had had

a dose of this virus.

 

No details were given about the timescale but I did get the impression that it

would come a lot quicker than an anti virus jab.

[saengd]

All the lock downs I've seen reported seem to refer to only the next 30 days, whether or not they will be extended after that is anyone's guess, I suppose it would be too panicky if lock downs were designated for 6 months so I expect they may be continued beyond 30 days...dunno for sure.

 

If the experience in China is anything to go by the rate of infection slowed considerably after three months but that was a total lock down scenario, I think this is best case for the rest of us. I'm kinda hanging my hat on what happens in the UK because that's a more controlled environment with full disclosure, that is probably going to be the model to follow.

 

From what I can gather a medical solution may be up to a year away although I gather that some existing drugs show promise in treatment of the virus.

 

I've reconciled myself mentally to not much changing between now and August and I'm planning on that basis. If things do change, great, if they don't I shall replan in August. But sitting around looking for new data/information every day and listening to the conspiracy theories and pseudo facts on TVF and similar is not sensible, it'll do your head in. Best to perhaps set yourself a target date and get on with life and then revisit in a few months.

 

EDIT TO ADD: I might add that parts of China are starting to show a return to work, maybe that's premature, maybe that's ambitious, maybe that's enforced or maybe it's simply necessary.

[RichardColeman]

I'm of back to blighty tonight - though my visa is OK until January, so can come back no problems. So, couple months playing way through all the Resi-evil games in a B and B. I have a health issue and am in constant contact with pharmacists at virology labs/hospitals and they are saying no current quick fixes on the horizon.

 

My own theory is that unless a vaccine come in in the next couple of months, people (non in at risk categories) will be ordered back to work and told they have to accept the risk of infection and the issues that may bring with their own families who they can isolate in advance. In UK labour would moan, add caveats but would have to accept it as the country would end without it.

 

The world could not shut down for say 18 months - couple at best. After that with no food there would be anarchy and survival of the fittest. (which cuts out a lot of us old fat farang !!) Even that bog roll and pasta would run out in 18 months ! people would be breaking into your home and stealing your food and leaving your valuables ! Or punching policeman to get jailed and fed !

 

It will not help government printing money in times of complete isolation - with no food that money is worthless - and there would be no open shops to spend it in and no postman to deliver anything online anyhow ! 

 

No, for me, new legislation, Ordered back to work in the next few months. I also expect new high tariffs on all Chinese products until all the debt is repaid for the borrowed money supporting current action. 

 

Funny thing for me in all this is that people are sat at home ordering Chinese food blaming the Chinese for their ills !

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[faraday]

Keep us updated on the situation in blighty, Richard.

 

Safe flight.

[ThaiBunny]

Some Western governments eg. Australia are saying "prepare for six months" (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/australia-declares-emergency-warns-coronavirus-crisis-could-last-six-months/articleshow/74686006.cms). Others such as the UK are saying "could be as late as Spring 2021" (https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/britains-coronavirus-outbreak-to-last-until-spring-2021-with-up-to-8-million-people). It's certainly not the 2-3 weeks that some people are stating

 

It partly depends on whether an effective treatment can be found from existing drugs, as it seems that a vaccination is unlikely this calendar year (2020). There's this recent news - https://www.livescience.com/flu-drug-could-treat-coronavirus.html - and there was a lengthy article in this week's Economist (out last weekend) about the potential for existing anti-viral drugs including those used for HIV. Waiting for a vaccine is going to be a long wait

 

While Italy's death rate seems very high, it should not be forgotten that Italy - like Thailand in some places - often has multi-generational households. It seems that young workers picked up the virus in the cities, went home, displayed few or no symptoms but infected their parents or grandparents who are now dying in large numbers. As an American friend of mine says "Wait until it hits Miami"

[ukrules]

Imperial College released a 20 page report on this - this report is why the governments of the world acted immediately and started lockdowns based on its content

 

There are two links.

 

The first link is a summary of the report - it's not from the usual twitter rubbish - it's a well written summary full of relevant information from the longer report reformatted using the threadreader app :

 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239975682643357696.html

 

The second link is the original report from Imperial College which is much more lengthy and detailed - the above summary is much more suitable for most of us - me included

 

Full report : https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

 

A little note : This will happen in stages according to the report, lockdowns followed by periods where the virus spreads again followed by lockdowns until vaccines are produced and everyone is innoculated.

 

It will likely drag on for years apparently.

 

This is the full text of the summary :

 

Quote

The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing -- if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course?

Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.

 

 

It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.

So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.

 

 

How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.

Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II.

 

 

Now, of course countries won't stand by and do nothing. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy: all symptomatic cases in the US in isolation. Families of those cases quarantined. All Americans over 70 social distancing.

 

This mitigation strategy is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.

 

And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by 8 times.

 

 

That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two Civil Wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we rely on mitigation & common sense.

Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, assuming a "suppression" strategy: isolate symptomatic cases, quarantine their family members, social distancing for the whole population, all public gatherings/most workplaces shut down, schools and universities close.

Suppression works! The death rate in the US peaks 3 weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit but don't exceed the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear.

 

 

But here's the catch: if we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before.

 

 

After the 1st suppression period ends in July, we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by city could do a bit better.

But we simply cannot EVER allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.

 

 

How quickly will a vaccine be here? Last week three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. That's an extreme measure, but necessary.

Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for 14 months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This part can't be rushed: if you're going to inoculate all humans, you have to make absolutely sure the vaccine itself won't kill them. It probably won't, but you have to be sure.

Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.

 

 

During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and society will be disrupted in profound ways. And if suppression actually works, it will feel like we're doing all this for nothing, because infection and death rates will remain low.

 

 

It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do.

 

The world has already changed, we just don't realise it yet

[saengd]

3 minutes ago, ukrules said:

Imperial College released a 20 page report on this - this report is why the governments of the world acted immediately and started lockdowns based on its content

 

There are two links.

 

The first link is a summary of the report - it's not from the usual twitter rubbish - it's a well written summary full of relevant information from the longer report reformatted using the threadreader app :

 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239975682643357696.html

 

The second link is the original report from Imperial College which is much more lengthy and detailed - the above summary is much more suitable for most of us - me included

 

Full report : https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

 

A little note : This will happen in stages according to the report, lockdowns followed by periods where the virus spreads again followed by lockdowns until vaccines are produced and everyone is innoculated.

 

It will likely drag on for years apparently.

 

This is the full text of the summary :

 

 

 

An excellent report, thanks for posting.

 

If the assumptions and model are accurate we should see the conclusions proven or otherwise very soon because China, Wuhan in particularity, is right at the following stage currently: 

 

"Suppression works! The death rate in the US peaks 3 weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down".

 

But for suppression to be effective it must be maintained, otherwise we revert to the other scenario's!

[balo]

Best scenario is it will get back to normal again in June. Worst scenario it could last for 2 years.

[Puchaiyank]

Very interesting thread and good comments.  No one knows when this thing will end as the world is in uncharted territory.  

 

The end will be a moving target until a vaccine is proven and moved to production...figure 18 months to two years unless a miracle cure is developed quickly...

[OneMoreFarang]

2 hours ago, scorecard said:

I well understand that nobody knows what's really ahead for any country and when the situation might start to go back to 'normal'.

It seems our best hope is that it will take a long time.

Because if many people get infected "now" then there will be no hospital beds and no doctors for all of them. Chaos and lots of people would die.

If we can flatten the curve (in the region, countries, continents) then more sick people will get treatment and will survive. But then the whole problem takes more time. It seems the current estimate is at least a year.

So it seems we have bad news or BAD news.

Angela Merkel said: This is the biggest crisis since Word War II.

[bkk6060]

Never.

And what is normal?

I think this will change the way people interact, business plans and models, 

attitudes towards others, economic structures of cities and countries probably for the rest of my lifetime.

[saengd]

Yes agreed very much, this will change the face of many industries, lifestyles and economies.

[OneMoreFarang]

1 hour ago, saengd said:

I'm kinda hanging my hat on what happens in the UK because that's a more controlled environment with full disclosure, that is probably going to be the model to follow.

Let's not forget that the UK has the NHS, basically free medical treatment for all of them. The NHS will obviously be overloaded but it's still a lot better than many millions of people without insurance and without money to even pay for a test in other countries, especially the USA.

[AussieBob18]

Within a month the world will know if the infection and mortality rates are as high as they are saying it is. 

 

If it turns out not to be as high as first thought (as some are saying it is) then the control measures will be started to ease back and 'normality' will be restored by May.  Then the WHO and the whole 'pandemic response' organisations will be torn a new one for creating the biggest ever fake worldwide panic in mankind's history.

 

If it turns out to be as bad as WHO and others predicted, the measures will stay in place until the infection rate starts to decline and/or a vaccine is developed - and that could take another 6-12 months. Then the WHO and the whole 'pandemic response' organisations will be praised and awarded medals.

 

Either way China is going to be severly punished for suppressing the information and allowing it to be spread to other countries.

 

[OneMoreFarang]

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

No, for me, new legislation, Ordered back to work in the next few months. I also expect new high tariffs on all Chinese products until all the debt is repaid for the borrowed money supporting current action. 

 

Funny thing for me in all this is that people are sat at home ordering Chinese food blaming the Chinese for their ills !

How do those paragraphs work together?

Do you blame all Chines people and want to make them pay? Should they also pay for the incompetence and ignorance of the leaders in other countries?

[saengd]

Just now, OneMoreFarang said:

Let's not forget that the UK has the NHS, basically free medical treatment for all of them. The NHS will obviously be overloaded but it's still a lot better than many millions of people without insurance and without money to even pay for a test in other countries, especially the USA.

Yes, except the NHS is already swamped and the virus problem will compound that issue many times over hence not everyone is going to receive treatment, even though it is free. And the same is going to be true of many other countries including Thailand although they are unlikely to admit it, the issue seems to be ventilators which are nobody anywhere has in sufficient quantities. So if we can see what the numbers look like coming out of the UK we can perhaps adjust them to arrive at a more believable picture of what might happen here.

[Lacessit]

Depends on what is meant by normal, and which sector of the economy one applies it to.

My guess is six months for reasonably free travel to be restored, two years for economies to recover. All that could change if we have a white swan ( vaccine ) or black swan ( COVID 25 ) event.

[saengd]

4 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

Either way China is going to be severly punished for suppressing the information and allowing it to be spread to other countries.

I just don't get the blame game or revenge at this stage of the proceedings and I don't think it's helpful, constructive or warranted. With hindsight China would have done things differently, with hindsight I wouldn't have married my first wife either!

[christophe75]

On one hand, the "report" written by a bunch of demented doctors in England (Imperial College), based on speculations and absurd extrapolations.

 

On the other hand, hard data.

 

Italy, upate march 17.

 

-2 500 deaths

-average age of deaths : 79,5 (it was 80,3 on march 13)

 

-on those 2 500 deaths, many of them suffered prior pathology (50 % had 3 prior illnesses !)

 

-on those 2 500 deaths only... 17 were under 50 years old (!)

 

-as for the few deaths under 40 years old, they had all serious existing medical conditions.

 

[source]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says?srnd=premium-asia

 

Facts :

-the virus is highly contagious... exactly like a common cold/flu

 

-actually... many of us have been infected. Already !

This is why it's so easy to scare people by calculating super high CFR... by not testing all the people.

 

Number of official "cases" are super low... so the CFR looks very high and dramatic !

 

It's complete BS.

 

-the virus kills... old people, and very ill people. Exactly... like a common flu.

 

-yes, it kills a few young people. Bad luck.

 

-the point is not to compare oranges with bananas.. but to remember SCALES.

You can't understand a phenomenon if you do not use SCALES.

 

So to go back to Italy : 2 500 deaths from the virus... Versus 647 000 total deaths in 2019 and 633 000 in 2018.

 

fact : it's an individual tragedy... But it's a ZERO from a statistical point of view.

And even if you multiply by 10 until the end of 2020.

 

260 death in France.. versus 20 000 old people culled in France by the heat wave in 2003 (70 000 for the whole Europe).

 

I could continue like this forever.

 

The world has gone mad.

 

Mass hysteria, a collective hallucination.

 

But in a few months, people will understand the scam. 

 

[bkk6060]

25 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Let's not forget that the UK has the NHS, basically free medical treatment for all of them. The NHS will obviously be overloaded but it's still a lot better than many millions of people without insurance and without money to even pay for a test in other countries, especially the USA.

False.

 

The US is offering free tests to every citizen. That is last weeks news.

And, UK citizens are some of the highest taxed in the world and pay a salary tax over their lifetime for NHS.  But, if a person never had a job I guess they can say it is free.

It is not free care as working people have/are paying for it.

 

[saengd]

9 minutes ago, christophe75 said:

On one hand, the "report" written by a bunch of demented doctors in England (Imperial College), based on speculations and absurd extrapolations.

 

On the other hand, hard data.

 

Italy, upate march 17.

 

-2 500 deaths

-average age of deaths : 79,5 (it was 80,3 on march 13)

 

-on those 2 500 deaths, many of them suffered prior pathology (50 % had 3 prior illnesses !)

 

-on those 2 500 deaths only... 17 were under 50 years old (!)

 

-as for the few deaths under 40 years old, they had all serious existing medical conditions.

 

[source]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says?srnd=premium-asia

 

Facts :

-the virus is highly contagious... exactly like a common cold/flu

 

-actually... many of us have been infected. Already !

This is why it's so easy to scare people by calculating super high CFR... by not testing all the people.

 

Number of official "cases" are super low... so the CFR looks very high and dramatic !

 

It's complete BS.

 

-the virus kills... old people, and very ill people. Exactly... like a common flu.

 

-yes, it kills a few young people. Bad luck.

 

-the point is not to compare oranges with bananas.. but to remember SCALES.

You can't understand a phenomenon if you do not use SCALES.

 

So to go back to Italy : 2 500 deaths from the virus... Versus 647 000 total deaths in 2019 and 633 000 in 2018.

 

fact : it's an individual tragedy... But it's a ZERO from a statistical point of view.

And even if you multiply by 10 until the end of 2020.

 

260 death in France.. versus 20 000 old people culled in France by the heat wave in 2003 (70 000 for the whole Europe).

 

I could continue like this forever.

 

The world has gone mad.

 

Mass hysteria, a collective hallucination.

 

But in a few months, people will understand the scam. 

 

How old are you, 25?

[englishoak]

This is the new normal until the virus either burns itself out when enough have had it to get the R0 number down to 1 or lower or a vaccine arrives... 18 mths and thats not including distribution/delivery.

 

Its called a paradigm shift and no one atm can tell what the outcome will be... oil right now is at $22 and whilst the dollar is the current flight to safety thats not a guarantee in a few months.

 

While the virus is spreading other things may well kick off under the fog of confusion and chaos, war breaking out in  regions is very possible as tensions mount. It might seem unthinkable now but as the global economies slow and we move into harvest time things could begin to get messy, bail ins rather than out could happen, i dont think many would be on the side of trillionaires or multi billionaires losing much of their wealth to help nations budgets and humanity, perhaps we could see a take over of some tax free zones like barbados or Caymens, BVI, Bahamas etc and company assets seized under sweeping new laws.  

 

We are in  totally unchartered waters, remember the no 1 priority of ALL governments is to survive. Govs will do whatever it takes and measures that might seem impossible now  could well seem sensible in a few months time.

 

Ill give it 2 years to stabilise and 5 years to normalise. 

[ThaiBunny]

4 minutes ago, englishoak said:

oil right now is at $22

But that's as a consequence of a Saudi decision that's completely independent of the coronavirus (although that hasn't helped) - https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/09/business/oil-price-crash-explainer/index.html

[christophe75]

8 minutes ago, saengd said:

How old are you, 25?

 

50.

 

And your question from an analytical point of view is totally irrelevant.

 

If you analyse something with emotions... you're lost.

 

And unfortunately, many people do like you.

 

You do not think.

 

You just react.

 

You're 80 old ? Yes you could die.

 

So what ?

 

Think about your young grand-children... and the insane world you leave to them if you continue to be blinded by propaganda and fear.

 

Voila. That would be constructive way to see and analyse the world.... And this virus.