Thailand reports 51 new coronavirus cases, three more deaths

[Dogmatix]

1 minute ago, Peterw42 said:

Yes that would be the ideal solution but almost impossible to do. It would involve testing 60 million people and testing/isolating them at the same time. Otherwise a week later someone who did test negative could get infected and start the cycle again.

Yes. If you ramp up testing to 100,000 a day it will still take 2 years to test the whole population.  But if you target higher risk people it will work better. The present situation where even people with symptoms aren't tested unless they are at death's door is not compatible with opening the lock down.  

[Nanaplaza666]

26 deaths since the outbrake emerged in JANUARI ?? When did they start outroling rules and regulations to prevent deaths and infections again ?? Half of march ?? Near the end of march ?? Nice timing . Anywho everybody stay safe and healthy and don't be happy to quickly by declining numbers , because as soon as the nr decline and they start lifting bans the numbers will get back up again , look at china . This is not over yet , don't start chearing to quickly .

[beammeup]

The virus has a lipid (fat) skin holding its protein contents. Imagine butter in this heat. Its not rocket science, its the heat and the sunshine. Thailand is winning and I for one am happy about it. I believe the numbers are real.

[ben2talk]

2 minutes ago, beammeup said:

The virus has a lipid (fat) skin holding its protein contents. Imagine butter in this heat. Its not rocket science, its the heat and the sunshine. Thailand is winning and I for one am happy about it. I believe the numbers are real.

Amazing, for the same reason we should also assume Flu is going to be erased this week?

I figured the virus would most likely live INSIDE the body where the 'heat and sunshine' have no effect, and would spread most efficiently from contact/close proximity - I don't worry that it'll sit on the road and get breathed in with dust outside, but I was reluctant to go to shopping centres before they got closed, and work environments are also risky - but I think Thai's are being a bit more careful about it than many westerners were in the early days.

 

I think Songkran will give another healthy breathing space - and by the end of the month we might well see a good limit on the spread.

[tso310]

2 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

So apart from the water fights and throwing water at every passing person the real original aspect of Songkran is not cancelled and the merit making and the paying of respect to one's elders if you can get to them will be allowed and the holiday has not been cancelled.Cheers.

Thais are not very tactile, very much so up in the sticks, and social distancing with a face mask should suffice when merit making. 

[Jingthing]

34 minutes ago, Nanaplaza666 said:

26 deaths since the outbrake emerged in JANUARI ?? When did they start outroling rules and regulations to prevent deaths and infections again ?? Half of march ?? Near the end of march ?? Nice timing . Anywho everybody stay safe and healthy and don't be happy to quickly by declining numbers , because as soon as the nr decline and they start lifting bans the numbers will get back up again , look at china . This is not over yet , don't start chearing to quickly .

Of course not. I don't think the public health goal anywhere is really zero new cases. It's more modest than that.

[Ketyo]

Prayut doesn't understand the time lag in this.

 

At their ministerial conference late last week he agreed that while ever there were new cases every day it shows that the lockdown is not strong enough. So they keep implementing more and more measures. 

 

But in reality it not the case. They know the full effect of a lockdown on case numbers only after a couple of weeks....after the incubation and illness period before people report they are sick. 

 

If the numbers of new cases is going down already it means the measures are already working to slow transmission enough to stop community transmission over time.

[ThailandRyan]

5 minutes ago, Ketyo said:

Prayut doesn't understand the time lag in this.

 

At their ministerial conference late last week he agreed that while ever there were new cases every day it shows that the lockdown is not strong enough. So they keep implementing more and more measures. 

 

But in reality it not the case. They know the full effect of a lockdown on case numbers only after a couple of weeks....after the incubation and illness period before people report they are sick. 

 

If the numbers of new cases is going down already it means the measures are already working to slow transmission enough to stop community transmission over time.

Only half true.  You also are in the lag window for those that fled to the provinces from Bangkok by bus 12 to 15 days ago.  Any of them could have been asymptomatic carriers that infected more people as they spread out.  The next few days will tell the truth, and that is more than likely why they are looking at stricter measures here in the near future.  Just food for thought.  This statistical set of numbers that they are giving us every day reminds me of a roller coaster, dips and rises....

[Hockeybik]

6 hours ago, JCP108 said:

I'm sorry but I miswrote my first post. I meant 5-10k deaths. So, we prob don't fully agree. 

Do you think that the hospitals are not reporting deaths as corona virus? Why would they do that? People looking at the numbers in Italy, Spain, the US and other countries think officials are OVER reporting covid deaths and calling anyone who dies with the virus even if the main cause was cancer, heart, or other as a corona virus death. So you think Thai hospitals are doing just the opposite, not reporting deaths as covid caused? Why? Deaths are much harder to hide than illnesses. 

[Jingthing]

8 minutes ago, Ketyo said:

Prayut doesn't understand the time lag in this.

 

At their ministerial conference late last week he agreed that while ever there were new cases every day it shows that the lockdown is not strong enough. So they keep implementing more and more measures. 

 

But in reality it not the case. They know the full effect of a lockdown on case numbers only after a couple of weeks....after the incubation and illness period before people report they are sick. 

 

If the numbers of new cases is going down already it means the measures are already working to slow transmission enough to stop community transmission over time.

You're right that time lag is an important factor with this virus but that doesn't mean it's going to be wise (here or anywhere) to transition instantly from major restrictions to no restrictions. They need to do so much here that they haven't done especially in the area of mass testing and eventually they would be wise to do mass testing for antibodies to identify probably immune people. Remember the cases they count are not all the cases. Many many people have no symptoms or mild symptoms and just stay at home (or much worse of course don't stay at home). Of course many others obviously have dies of lung complications without ever being tested or perhaps even gone to hospital. Again -- not enough testing! This problem isn't unique to Thailand. I was just reading today an article claiming that the U.S. deaths (now already massive compared to Thailand) are definitely an UNDERCOUNT because of all the deaths classed as pneumonia without ever being tested.

[Jingthing]

3 minutes ago, Hockeybik said:

Do you think that the hospitals are not reporting deaths as corona virus? Why would they do that? People looking at the numbers in Italy, Spain, the US and other countries think officials are OVER reporting covid deaths and calling anyone who dies with the virus even if the main cause was cancer, heart, or other as a corona virus death. So you think Thai hospitals are doing just the opposite, not reporting deaths as covid caused? Why? Deaths are much harder to hide than illnesses. 

You're wrong. People have always died of pneumonia. Testing has been limited here. There is zero doubt that some (how many we'll never know) Covid deaths here were never recorded as such. I'm not even saying that is based on evil intent or a plan to cover up numbers.

 

Have all the provincial hospitals even HAD test kits going back for months? Please get real and consider the practical problems with this.

 

There is always an undercount. Cases and deaths. The question is by how much. 

Edited April 6, 2020 by Jingthing

[JCP108]

2 minutes ago, Hockeybik said:

Do you think that the hospitals are not reporting deaths as corona virus? Why would they do that? People looking at the numbers in Italy, Spain, the US and other countries think officials are OVER reporting covid deaths and calling anyone who dies with the virus even if the main cause was cancer, heart, or other as a corona virus death. So you think Thai hospitals are doing just the opposite, not reporting deaths as covid caused? Why? Deaths are much harder to hide than illnesses. 

Yes. That's what I think. I think people are not being tested. So, many people are likely dying with the death being attributed to other causes. That's my assumption based on so few tests being done and the unbelievably low number of infected people reported so far. I would very, very, very much like to see the death statistics (for all attributed causes) for Thailand by month for the last four months to compare to the prior year. Anyone know where that can be found?

[Daveyh]

If these numbers are to be believed then I think we should all relax & stop scaring one another. I think we are all doing everything we can at the moment .......... pretty much the same as all the other countries I would think. It's difficult to know where to turn to stop the spread, but common sense tells us to self isolate as much as possible & we are doing that. I've been at home for two weeks now & only shop once a week. My household maintenance & DIY jobs, that have been long overdue are being addressed, which is great. I've managed to buy facemarks, antiseptic gel, disposable gloves & face shields locally, so I think the public are being well served by the authorities here. The key is to stay home as much as possible ....... the streets are empty, so I think the majority of the public are. Stay safe everyone by staying home ........ protect one another at this very crucial time in our lives.

[CGW]

49 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

This statistical set of numbers that they are giving us every day reminds me of a roller coaster, dips and rises....

Whats wrong with them, don't you believe them? Tin hat brigade out in force here ???? 

You should be like us Sheeple - we believe! ????

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, beammeup said:

The virus has a lipid (fat) skin holding its protein contents. Imagine butter in this heat. Its not rocket science, its the heat and the sunshine. Thailand is winning and I for one am happy about it. I believe the numbers are real.

If I throw a box of butter at your face, will it matter if it's -25 degrees or +35 or if the sun is shining? That's the direct transmission route of people coughing and sneezing at each other.

[ThailandRyan]

12 minutes ago, CGW said:

Whats wrong with them, don't you believe them? Tin hat brigade out in force here ???? 

You should be like us Sheeple - we believe! ????

And so did Dorthy from the wizard of oz, but then she woke up to reality and it was all a bad dream.  Not even close to being a conspiracy theorist.  You want to believe the numbers go ahead, I do not.....

[JCP108]

49 minutes ago, Daveyh said:

If these numbers are to be believed...

I don't believe them.

[joecoolfrog]

8 hours ago, kevin612 said:

51 is very impressive, keep bring it down. Anyway, I am satisfied with today’s number. 
stay safe, everyone.

Well they could stop testing completely , then the number of confirmed new cases would be zero , would that make you feel even happier ?

[CGW]

1 minute ago, joecoolfrog said:

Well they could stop testing completely , then the number of confirmed new cases would be zero , would that make you feel even happier ?

What exactly are they testing for, look into that a little, then join the sceptics?

Amazingly Flu & Pneumonia numbers have dropped substantially and the overall mortality rate in Europe is unchanged.

Misdiagnosed?

[bestie]

I would like to know where and when those infected foreigners went to the immigration office. 

[joecoolfrog]

6 hours ago, JimHuaHin said:

If these data are correct, then why is the Prayut Government consideration a total lockdown for 2 weeks?

The low number of confirmed cases are a simple reflection on the low rate of testing. 

Anybody with a modicum of common sense realises that the actual scale of infection is far greater , the government action reflects this.

Edited April 6, 2020 by joecoolfrog

[JCP108]

12 minutes ago, CGW said:

 

Amazingly Flu & Pneumonia numbers have dropped substantially and the overall mortality rate in Europe is unchanged.

 

Source?

[beammeup]

56 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

If I throw a box of butter at your face, will it matter if it's -25 degrees or +35 or if the sun is shining? That's the direct transmission route of people coughing and sneezing at each other.

I'd like to see you try to throw a dollop of butter that has been sitting on the counter at 35 degrees for 10 minutes at me. The point of the post is that this is why the numbers are lower here in Thailand than in Europe or USA, where is is still cold outside. Obviously it is transmittable from human to human.

[joecoolfrog]

13 minutes ago, CGW said:

What exactly are they testing for, look into that a little, then join the sceptics?

Amazingly Flu & Pneumonia numbers have dropped substantially and the overall mortality rate in Europe is unchanged.

Misdiagnosed?

Your conspiracy theory is possible but moot to the discussion . Whether one is testing for Covid , flu or anything else , less tests = less confirmed cases and thats a fact.

[White Christmas13]

2 minutes ago, beammeup said:

I'd like to see you try to throw a dollop of butter that has been sitting on the counter at 35 degrees for 10 minutes at me. The point of the post is that this is why the numbers are lower here in Thailand than in Europe or USA, where is is still cold outside. Obviously it is transmittable from human to human.

It hasn't been cold in Australia we just getting over summer well maybe in Tassie in WA we still have

33 to 35 forecast and still getting infections (most of them from the cruise ships and visitors)

[beammeup]

So why would they lie? It might damage the tourist industry?

[beammeup]

5 minutes ago, White Christmas13 said:

It hasn't been cold in Australia we just getting over summer well maybe in Tassie in WA we still have

33 to 35 forecast and still getting infections (most of them from the cruise ships and visitors)

Maybe you guys kiss each other too much?? And shake hands.

Edited April 6, 2020 by beammeup

[White Christmas13]

2 minutes ago, beammeup said:

Maybe you guys kiss each other too much??

Very funny but not true I have 2 friends who got it and both have not kissed anybody in Years

[joecoolfrog]

6 hours ago, Millcx said:

ANYONE know how many tests are being done everyday ? .... Asking for a friend

6-700 , in total around 25,000.

Nowhere near enough to form an accurate picture of the scale of the virus.

[CGW]

16 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

Source?

Internet!