Thailand's tourism industry won't recover from Covid-19 for many years, says top Thai bank

 

 

A research institute connected to one of Thailand's leading financial institutions has painted a grim picture of Thailand's tourist industry recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. 

 

They said it could be 4 years before things get back to anything like normal. 

 

The grim outlook was part of many stats that will come as no surprise to anyone in the industry or even the casual observer.

 

Krungthai Compass spokesman Phachornphot Nantharamas said that revenue from tourism for this year will be down from 2.1 trillion baht to just 910 billion - a 70% drop on 2019. 

 

He noted that arrivals were down from 39 million to just 6.8 million tourists. 

 

Thaivisa notes that most of these were in the first few months of the year before Thailand was effectively locked down. Since then foreign arrivals have been virtually non-existent and the outlook until the end of the year remains steeped in ifs and buts.

 

Phachornphot said that limited improvement was expected in 2021 but most of that depended on government policies regarding the acceptance of foreign tourists rather than businesses adjusting to the "new normal" of domestic tourism. 

 

Krungthai Compass's figures put a huge margin on what this could mean for foreign tourist arrivals - next year they predicted as little as 900,000 and as many as 14.9 million. 

 

They predicted that revenue would likely be 1.24 trillion baht next year but even this optimistic figure would represent nearly half of   2019 figures. 

 

But perhaps the most dire prediction was that a full recovery of tourism in Thailand - that was formerly around 20% of the nation's GDP - is three to four years away. 

 

Source: Daily News

 

 

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I suspect that the banks assessment may be more realistic than TAT's!

"Thailand's tourism industry won't recover from Covid-19 for many years, says top Thai bank"

 

Dear Khun Phachornphot, I give you a hint:

 

It's only partly Covid-19 itself which causes this. The bigger part is your Thai compatriots and governments paranoid reaction on Covid. You should think a little bit more about this!

Reality.

 

And there is no "scheme" that can save it.

2 hours ago, webfact said:

They said it could be 4 years before things get back to anything like normal.

that's optimistic !!!!  if they don't change their government and their visa requirements it could be forever

2 hours ago, webfact said:

that was formerly around 20% of the nation's GDP

Could happen again, if all other sectors plummet

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand's tourism industry won't recover from Covid-19 for many years,

 

It''s not just the tourism industry. The entire country itself won't recover from the disease of the mad generals and their corrupt gang of thieves for many...many years.

 

 

Now introducing triple pricing! We'll make up the loss one way or another!

Well that will cheer up the bar, restaurants Hotels and anyone else that depends on the Foreign  Tourists coming back to Thailand 

I was thinking maybe next year but according to this report could take longer

Which is proberly more to the truth 

First realistic report. What tourist would want to come with the current paperwork hurdles and prison like expensive quarantine. Also most tourism centres don't have many decent restaurants left to eat in. Over half of the restaurants in Pattaya are shut down many for good. 

Words of reason for a change.  Wonder if this man will be threatened with attitude adjustment.  

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Phachornphot Nantharamas said that revenue from tourism for this year will be down from 2.1 trillion baht to just 910 billion - a 70% drop on 2019. 

another guy with a dart board in the office

So let's get out & emigrate en mass, normal and educated Thais included!!! Let the generals and other unqualified bureaucrats behind with their mess.. ????????????

1 hour ago, 86Tiger said:

Reality.

 

And there is no "scheme" that can save it.

Definitely Vouchers.

I'd be more interested to know how much money has been - and will continue to be lost - from the Thai economy from money exchange. Must be pushing billions

7 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

I'd be more interested to know how much money has been - and will continue to be lost - from the Thai economy from money exchange. Must be pushing billions

That is a great point.  I had not considered previously.

 

Very well may see some banks dependent on that income stream failing soon......

The present Government reactions look as though they will destroy tourism and the greater economy far worse than the virus could ever do! 

To be honest, it is something the country has never experienced before...and they have no idea what to do.  Everyone was super happy before just taking the money in...ripping off foreigners where they could - now it has come to an abrupt halt. HHmmm...

3 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

I suspect that the banks assessment may be more realistic than TAT's!

No doubt that can be rearranged

1 hour ago, JusticeGB said:

First realistic report. What tourist would want to come with the current paperwork hurdles and prison like expensive quarantine. Also most tourism centres don't have many decent restaurants left to eat in. Over half of the restaurants in Pattaya are shut down many for good. 

Bruno's, Cherry's, Wooden Box and many more. Some closed before Corvid due to the dwindling, non-Chinese patrons. The tourism policies before Corvid, the shortsighted "make money while you can", a shaky and unpopular "government", internet truths about assaults and crimes in the LOS; exposés about roadway carnage and government corruption, all played a part in the current chaos.

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand's tourism industry won't recover from Covid-19 for many years, says top Thai bank

Now, how long to recover if there were any capable and incorruptible people in government?

I predict the tourism industry will never recover. Ever. Sure, people will return. But in our lifetimes they will not see over 30 million tourists again. 

 

The $100 billion (yes, about 3.3 trillion baht!) Thailand takes in from tourism annually reverberates out in countless ways. Even the rural folks benefit. Alot of the nicer houses in the poorer farming areas were built with money from expats. Alot of trucks, cars and income is from expats. Countless business employing many. To say it is insignificant, is a blatant misunderstanding of Thai economics. Thousands of hotels, restaurants, countless airlines and many tour companies, also benefit.

 

This hapless administration needs to develop some courage and initiative. They can't hide from the world forever. Extreme timidity from supposedly tough men is an amusing thing to witness. However, the pain they are inflicting on millions is not. 

2 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

Could happen again, if all other sectors plummet

20% of official GDP. But it is hurting people with revenues too small to be recognised.

 

Plus, consider that high season provides income for the year. That has now run out or nearly. What do you think ordinary people will do when their savings are gone?

BUT BUT they are introducing a new 90 day renewable tourist visa for 2000 thb per person in October we will be fighting for the sunbeds 

I notice the narrative (number of news stories)  is starting to swing more and more in the direction of economic hardship due to Covid restrictions.  
I suspect this is a setup to opening earlier than one might think.  The generals will be presiding over a dead corpse of an economy if they don’t do something urgently ... and don’t think they don’t know this.  Covid has been a proven killer in some cases but it’s now more of a political problem than a health problem.

The new normal that they tak about is going to be slightly lower than the old normal.  Pats and Phuket were already priced out o the market and were really only a place for peole that wanted to drink and screw. 

 

I think that that is not going to come back as well because most of the old timers will be too old to push their walkers onto the plane.

 

I think that if they want to get tourism back it is simple gear it to the thai wants and desires.  Most of what the Thai family is looking for is what the tourists originally wanted.  Yes places like Walking street and NANa will still exist but I donot see them existing at the levels they were.

Lets hope it never goes back to the days of unsustainable mass tourism. 

They killed the goose who laid the golden eggs.  Let’s see if they can save exports.

Tourism would have gone down the pan irrespective of Corona, Covit-19 or any other excuse; Thais have simply overdone it with a suffocating pristine example of bureaucracy mess in their visa system and immigration, their racist approach towards "dirty farang" and "alien", dual pricing, cheating, non-enforcement of existing law etc. etc. etc.

As far as the figures are concerned; the light blue bank might have to work them over. Their statement on revenue topping from "2.1 trillion baht to just 910 billion - a 70% drop on 2019 ... and arrivals were down from 39 million to just 6.8 million tourists." The topping is not 70% by revenue yet try to work out, how much 39 million tourists spend per capita and then compare it to the 6.8 million tourists. 

Resting my case; get your act in order and then it will still take quite some time until they are back. Treat tourists like customers and not like cattle on the way to the slaughterhouse ???? 

 

5 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

They killed the goose who laid the golden eggs.  Let’s see if they can save exports.

Not if they start to be a proxy for China, then they'll face sanctions.