How are the bars, restaurants, agogos, massage shops, gentleman clubs and any business doing during covid?

kinyara · June 29, 2022

20 hours ago, Leaver said:

Thriving compared to what? Thriving for who? You have never said.

Compared to 2019?

Compared to lock down?

Compared to testing and SHA?

Compared to low seasons pre covid?

Where's the Russians and Chinese?

I spoke to a Thai girl I know who works in reception of a large hotel in Central Pattaya the other day. I asked her what is the current occupancy rate of her hotel. We did the math and it was around 13%.

Is Pattaya rebounding? Yes. Is Pattaya "thriving?" In my opinion, no, not yet. Next high season will be interesting.

How about compared to Vietnam, a neighbouring country you regularly quote as being a competitor you think will draw tourists away from Thailand.

2019 Pre-Covid - Vietnam had 48% of the tourist numbers of Thailand

Year to date May 2022 - Vietnam had 28% of the tourist numbers of Thailand. ( which included all the competitors atttending the SEA games in Vietnam in May ).

It's a low low season which is to be expected as it's all relative to the issues faced by every tourist market in the recovery of the global travel industry. Pattaya will at least benefit from the domestic weekend market again through the low season supported by the government's travel incentives alongside the gradual if unspectacular improvement in international visitors.

Looking to high season I'd be a bit concerned if my customer base was primarily the long-haul Western market given what we are already seeing with the increased flight costs and inflationary rises in the cost of living.

Leaver · June 29, 2022

On 6/28/2022 at 10:54 AM, scubascuba3 said:

I went to the large Outlet Mall at the top of Thepprasit this morning, a well stocked out place, more staff than customers, in fact virtually no customers, staff looked depressed, could barely be bothered to look up when i walked past, anyway it's worth a look there for sports and maybe general clothes and shoes

Some members would describe such a scene as "thriving." ????

Leaver · June 29, 2022

10 hours ago, kinyara said:

How about compared to Vietnam, a neighbouring country you regularly quote as being a competitor you think will draw tourists away from Thailand.

2019 Pre-Covid - Vietnam had 48% of the tourist numbers of Thailand

Year to date May 2022 - Vietnam had 28% of the tourist numbers of Thailand. ( which included all the competitors atttending the SEA games in Vietnam in May ).

It's a low low season which is to be expected as it's all relative to the issues faced by every tourist market in the recovery of the global travel industry. Pattaya will at least benefit from the domestic weekend market again through the low season supported by the government's travel incentives alongside the gradual if unspectacular improvement in international visitors.

Looking to high season I'd be a bit concerned if my customer base was primarily the long-haul Western market given what we are already seeing with the increased flight costs and inflationary rises in the cost of living.

Well, since you mentioned Vietnam.

https://vietnamtourism.gov.vn/english/index.php/statistic/international?txtkey=&year=2020&period=t1

"International visitors to Viet Nam in 1/2020 estimated 1.994.125 arrivals, increase 16,6% over 12/2019 and up 32,8% over the same period last year. 2019. Total international arrivals in 1 months reached 1.994.125 arrivals, increasing 32,8% over the same period last year."

If Vietnam returns to 32.8% increases in tourists, year on year, how long before Vietnam overtakes Thailand?

Why such a big increase, well possibly because Vietnam is investing in tourism.

Some examples:

World record breaking cable car.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHXgwCZGotg

Six new airports over the next 10 years.

https://en.vietnamplus.vn/six-more-airports-to-be-constructed-in-10-years/214064.vnp

"Six new airports will be built in the next 10 years, raising the total number of airports in the country to 28, haft of which are international airports."

Vietnam will have 14 international airports, and Thailand only 7.

Luxury ship building.

https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/two-luxury-superyacht-cruise-ships-building-for-vietnam

"The Vietnamese cruise ships are due for delivery late in 2023 and will both operate in Ha Long Bay, a UNESCO World Heritage Site and popular travel destination in northern Vietnam."

The Seahorse vehicle carrier couldn't even get started here.

Casinos. Here's one.

https://thegrandhotram.com

Kinyara, what has Thailand built to benefit tourists, and the tourism industry in recent years?

I'm not the only one to see it. Here's a thread from mid 2019, well before covid.

From a senior Thai in tourism:

"In fact the outlook is terrible - with Vietnam presenting a "scary" proposition as a competitor for the tourism dollar.

He described Vietnam as "naa glua" - meaning scary.

He said that Vietnam was increasingly a rival of Thailand for tourist cash. Vietnam has lots of unexplored and new tourism locations and many people are choosing to go there instead of Pattaya in particular and Thailand in general."

You mentioned the high costs of living having an impact on the funds available to tourists. Look at the youtube video at 5:30 minutes. A local beer, on the beach, after transport on world record breaking tourism infrastructure, is 30,000 Vietnam Dong, which is 45 baht, with a free hammock, and no mafia in sight.

Yet, Thailand continues to simple target more and more zero baht tourists to prop up the tourist numbers, showing new tourists the same tired old tourism infrastructure it's had for decades.

Edited June 29, 2022 by Leaver

Yellowtail · June 29, 2022

On 6/28/2022 at 3:29 PM, Leaver said:

Glad we cleared that up..

We?

On 6/28/2022 at 3:29 PM, Leaver said:

Rent is a cost of doing business in any country, but many rents here increase to unrealistic levels which the property itself simply can not support. Eg. small beer bars that sit only 12 customers and are 40,000 baht or more a month rent. Do the math to see how many beers would have to be sold, every single hour of operation, just to cover the rent.

So the landlords should base the rent on whatever the business owner claims they can afford, not on what the market dictates, yes? If the business can afford the rent, it should shut down.

On 6/28/2022 at 3:29 PM, Leaver said:

Many Thai landlords have cashed in over the years from flipping leases to "dreamers." Do you deny this?

I don't disagree at at all, so what? No shortage of fools thinking they're going to be living the life running a 12 seat beer-bar in Pattaya, is that somehow the landlord's fault?

kinyara · June 30, 2022

11 hours ago, Leaver said:

Well, since you mentioned Vietnam.

https://vietnamtourism.gov.vn/english/index.php/statistic/international?txtkey=&year=2020&period=t1

"International visitors to Viet Nam in 1/2020 estimated 1.994.125 arrivals, increase 16,6% over 12/2019 and up 32,8% over the same period last year. 2019. Total international arrivals in 1 months reached 1.994.125 arrivals, increasing 32,8% over the same period last year."

If Vietnam returns to 32.8% increases in tourists, year on year, how long before Vietnam overtakes Thailand?

Why such a big increase, well possibly because Vietnam is investing in tourism.

Some examples:

World record breaking cable car.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHXgwCZGotg

Six new airports over the next 10 years.

https://en.vietnamplus.vn/six-more-airports-to-be-constructed-in-10-years/214064.vnp

"Six new airports will be built in the next 10 years, raising the total number of airports in the country to 28, haft of which are international airports."

Vietnam will have 14 international airports, and Thailand only 7.

Luxury ship building.

https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/two-luxury-superyacht-cruise-ships-building-for-vietnam

"The Vietnamese cruise ships are due for delivery late in 2023 and will both operate in Ha Long Bay, a UNESCO World Heritage Site and popular travel destination in northern Vietnam."

The Seahorse vehicle carrier couldn't even get started here.

Casinos. Here's one.

https://thegrandhotram.com

Kinyara, what has Thailand built to benefit tourists, and the tourism industry in recent years?

I'm not the only one to see it. Here's a thread from mid 2019, well before covid.

From a senior Thai in tourism:

"In fact the outlook is terrible - with Vietnam presenting a "scary" proposition as a competitor for the tourism dollar.

He described Vietnam as "naa glua" - meaning scary.

He said that Vietnam was increasingly a rival of Thailand for tourist cash. Vietnam has lots of unexplored and new tourism locations and many people are choosing to go there instead of Pattaya in particular and Thailand in general."

You mentioned the high costs of living having an impact on the funds available to tourists. Look at the youtube video at 5:30 minutes. A local beer, on the beach, after transport on world record breaking tourism infrastructure, is 30,000 Vietnam Dong, which is 45 baht, with a free hammock, and no mafia in sight.

Yet, Thailand continues to simple target more and more zero baht tourists to prop up the tourist numbers, showing new tourists the same tired old tourism infrastructure it's had for decades.

You didn't address my observation as to how come Vietnam is doing poorly in the recovery stakes compared to Thailand in 2022, as I said 28% compared to 48% of Thailand's numbers post v pre covid ? Given all what you mention above wouldn't you be expectIng Vietnam to be doing better relative to Thailand already ?

Yellowtail · June 30, 2022

26 minutes ago, kinyara said:

You didn't address my observation as to how come Vietnam is doing poorly in the recovery stakes compared to Thailand in 2022, as I said 28% compared to 48% of Thailand's numbers post v pre covid ? Given all what you mention above wouldn't you be expectIng Vietnam to be doing better relative to Thailand already ?

The Vietnamese landlords must be 20% greedier than the greedy Thai landlords....

kinyara · June 30, 2022

1 minute ago, Yellowtail said:

The Vietnamese landlords must be 20% greedier than the greedy Thai landlords....

Now now don't give him clues Yellowtail, I think we should let poor old Leaver try and work it out for himself. He must be sat there scratching his head muttering to himself, " How is that possible, why have all the cable car loving tourists not returned ? " ????

Olmate · June 30, 2022

20 minutes ago, kinyara said:

Now now don't give him clues Yellowtail, I think we should let poor old Leaver try and work it out for himself. He must be sat there scratching his head muttering to himself, " How is that possible, why have all the cable car loving tourists not returned ? " ????

Patts cable car is the.go to attraction!!

jacko45k · June 30, 2022

51 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

The Vietnamese landlords must be 20% greedier than the greedy Thai landlords....

Jeez guys, pony on up to the challenge!

Leaver · June 30, 2022

11 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

We?

Yes.

11 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

So the landlords should base the rent on whatever the business owner claims they can afford, not on what the market dictates, yes? If the business can afford the rent, it should shut down.

No. Thai landlords should drive past their properties once a month, and if they see 10 customers in the business one month, as opposed to only 5 customers the month before, they should double the rent. That's only fair, right? ????

11 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

I don't disagree at at all, so what? No shortage of fools thinking they're going to be living the life running a 12 seat beer-bar in Pattaya, is that somehow the landlord's fault?

Trouble is, Thai landlords think all farang are fools, even if you run a good operation.

Leaver · June 30, 2022

2 hours ago, kinyara said:

You didn't address my observation as to how come Vietnam is doing poorly in the recovery stakes compared to Thailand in 2022, as I said 28% compared to 48% of Thailand's numbers post v pre covid ? Given all what you mention above wouldn't you be expectIng Vietnam to be doing better relative to Thailand already ?

Quite short sighted of you to only focus on an immediate post covid recovery. Let's look at 5 years from now.

Vietnam only opened their borders around 1990 and look how far their tourism has come since then.

More to the point, is the billions of dollars, not baht or Vietnam dong, that they have spent on tourism infrastructure in just the last 10 years.

You never answered my simple question, what has Thailand built for the benefit of tourists, and the tourism industry, in recent years? Simple question, really.

A senior Thai in the tourism industry commented on the topic in mid 2019, well before covid, so the writing has been on the wall for some time, and it's not like Thai's to criticize other Thai's and cause some loss of face, such is the threat of Vietnam's tourism industry to Thailand. Do you think he is plain wrong? What makes you think Vietnam will not return to 32.8% increases in tourist numbers, year on year, post covid?

Even using pre covid figures, Thailand had about 39.92 million tourists in 2019. Vietnam had about 18.01 million tourists in 2019.

To use compounding would be a long equation, so to simplify, and also be conservative, 18.01 million x 32.8% = around 5,904,000 extra tourists, year upon year, for Vietnam.

39 million - 18 million = 21 million extra tourist Thailand had over Vietnam in 2019.

21 million / 5,904,000 = around 3.55 years for Vietnam to reach Thailand's tourist numbers, and these are conservative figures, with no compounding, and doesn't even address the point you made about affordability, which I agree, will play a big part in tourism in this region over the next few years, with Vietnam offering a considerably cheaper holiday, yet a lot more new tourism infrastructure, some of it world record breaking, and some of it services that Thailand doesn't even offer. Eg. casinos.

Is my math wrong? How much will covid play a part in the recovery of the tourism industry for both countries is yet to be scene, but I do agree with you, if business owners here a relying on a big high season, I'm not so sure it will eventuate, as many returning tourists may simply not be able to afford to holiday here for sometime, for several reasons previously mentioned.

Pattaya / Thailand has spent decades building a huge sex industry, which in my opinion is unrivaled across the world, and I freely admit that's why I am here, but we are talking about tourism in general, not just sex tourists, particularly western tourists, not zero baht Chinese tourists.

Edited June 30, 2022 by Leaver

Leaver · June 30, 2022

1 hour ago, Olmate said:

Patts cable car is the.go to attraction!!

Compare the investment in both tourist attractions and you can see which country will be attracting tourists with real money to spend in the future.

Leaver · June 30, 2022

2 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

The Vietnamese landlords must be 20% greedier than the greedy Thai landlords....

Yet, it's somehow 20,000 Vietnam Dong (30 baht) for a beer in a girly bar in Vietnam. Go figure. ????????

Leaver · June 30, 2022

2 hours ago, kinyara said:

Now now don't give him clues Yellowtail, I think we should let poor old Leaver try and work it out for himself. He must be sat there scratching his head muttering to himself, " How is that possible, why have all the cable car loving tourists not returned ? " ????

In my opinion, Vietnam will return to big increases, year on year, of their tourist numbers, post covid.

Vietnam not only will be a genuine competitor to Thailand, but will take a big part of Thailand's market share, possibly overtaking Thailand for tourist in around 5 to 7 years from now.

Thailand continues to build nothing and invest nothing for tourism, while expecting tourists to keep coming, as they have in the past. This may be the case for zero baht tourists, so the tourist numbers will look good, but all the while Vietnam will be reinvesting on the back of more and more tourism. This was happening pre covid.

In many ways, Thailand is like the Nokia phone company. Nokia had a huge market share, but ultimately went broke.

Leaver · June 30, 2022

1 hour ago, jacko45k said:

Jeez guys, pony on up to the challenge!

Happy to debate it, if they were to post any content other than personal attacks. ????

kinyara · June 30, 2022

5 hours ago, Leaver said:

In my opinion, Vietnam will return to big increases, year on year, of their tourist numbers, post covid.

Vietnam not only will be a genuine competitor to Thailand, but will take a big part of Thailand's market share, possibly overtaking Thailand for tourist in around 5 to 7 years from now.

Thailand continues to build nothing and invest nothing for tourism, while expecting tourists to keep coming, as they have in the past. This may be the case for zero baht tourists, so the tourist numbers will look good, but all the while Vietnam will be reinvesting on the back of more and more tourism. This was happening pre covid.

In many ways, Thailand is like the Nokia phone company. Nokia had a huge market share, but ultimately went broke.

You do realise that Vietnam's tourist growth has been driven to a greater extent than Thailand's by the Chinese tourists you seem to think are detrimental here ?

2019 - Chinese tourists as a % of Vietnam's total tourism = 32%

2019 - Chinese tourists as a % of Thailand's total tourism = 27%

I guess if we apply your "logic" they must be playing the zero dong numbers game better than Thailand.

Leaver · July 1, 2022

20 hours ago, kinyara said:

You do realise that Vietnam's tourist growth has been driven to a greater extent than Thailand's by the Chinese tourists you seem to think are detrimental here ?

2019 - Chinese tourists as a % of Vietnam's total tourism = 32%

2019 - Chinese tourists as a % of Thailand's total tourism = 27%

I guess if we apply your "logic" they must be playing the zero dong numbers game better than Thailand.

You are correct, and no disagreement from me. The Chinese were / are the biggest tourism market for both countries.

What will be very interesting is the trend of the traditional western markets in the future. Couples, families etc. Once again, Vietnam is investing and building things to cater for them, whilst Thailand is still relying on its tired and dirty mafia controlled beaches, and sex trade.

As I have said in the past, what is the point of building a big new shiny 5 Star hotel, in the middle of outdated tourism infrastructure? As soon as a tourist, who has spent big money on a 5 Star hotel, steps outside, they can't even walk on a decent sidewalk, for example.

I am not suggesting Vietnam will be taking a big market share of sex tourists. (mongers) No chance of that. Thailand has that market secured well and truly. It's that lucrative western market with real money to spend, such as families, that in my opinion, Thailand is not only going to struggle to retain, but also to attract, in the future.

On the point of the Chinese, I have actually been to Ho Tram casino and seen the gambling floor near capacity with predominately Chinese gamblers. I'm not suggesting Chinese gamblers make up the majority of Chinese tourist numbers for Vietnam, but Chinese gamblers appear to be lucrative for Vietnam. This is a market that Thailand is no where near being able to compete with Vietnam to attract.

It will be interesting to see some tourism data a few years from now, but if Thailand's and Vietnam's tourism industries were both listed on a stock exchange, and I had to chose one for a long term investment, I would be choosing Vietnam for the reasons I have mentioned in this, and other posts.

Which one would you chose?

Edited July 1, 2022 by Leaver

kinyara · July 2, 2022

On 7/1/2022 at 1:08 PM, Leaver said:

You are correct, and no disagreement from me. The Chinese were / are the biggest tourism market for both countries.

What will be very interesting is the trend of the traditional western markets in the future. Couples, families etc. Once again, Vietnam is investing and building things to cater for them, whilst Thailand is still relying on its tired and dirty mafia controlled beaches, and sex trade.

As I have said in the past, what is the point of building a big new shiny 5 Star hotel, in the middle of outdated tourism infrastructure? As soon as a tourist, who has spent big money on a 5 Star hotel, steps outside, they can't even walk on a decent sidewalk, for example.

I am not suggesting Vietnam will be taking a big market share of sex tourists. (mongers) No chance of that. Thailand has that market secured well and truly. It's that lucrative western market with real money to spend, such as families, that in my opinion, Thailand is not only going to struggle to retain, but also to attract, in the future.

On the point of the Chinese, I have actually been to Ho Tram casino and seen the gambling floor near capacity with predominately Chinese gamblers. I'm not suggesting Chinese gamblers make up the majority of Chinese tourist numbers for Vietnam, but Chinese gamblers appear to be lucrative for Vietnam. This is a market that Thailand is no where near being able to compete with Vietnam to attract.

It will be interesting to see some tourism data a few years from now, but if Thailand's and Vietnam's tourism industries were both listed on a stock exchange, and I had to chose one for a long term investment, I would be choosing Vietnam for the reasons I have mentioned in this, and other posts.

Which one would you chose?

67% of Vietnam's tourism industry is from just 4 countries, China, Korea, Taiwan and Japan. That suggests to me it is predominantly a budget Asian tour bus destination. Nothing wrong with that, but I think it will be a long time before it has the broader geographic customer base that Thailand attracts. We've seen how Sihanoukville has been destroyed by a Chinese casino/gambling model, I hope Thailand doesn't go down that route.

Danderman123 · July 3, 2022

Getting back to Pattaya, I am detecting a big downturn in customers in Pattaya over the last week. I have a fairly accurate method for determine the customer numbers in Pattaya: the number of ladies messaging me for a visit to my place shot through the roof last week. The phone was ringing off the hook.

The same ladies who ignored me for the last six months. Because they were busy with customers.

The irony is the number of ladies arriving from Isaan is increasing as the customers leave.

Edited July 3, 2022 by Danderman123

Olmate · July 3, 2022

36 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Getting back to Pattaya, I am detecting a big downturn in customers in Pattaya over the last week. I have a fairly accurate method for determine the customer numbers in Pattaya: the number of ladies messaging me for a visit to my place shot through the roof last week. The phone was ringing off the hook.

The same ladies who ignored me for the last six months. Because they were busy with customers.

The irony is the number of ladies arriving from Isaan is increasing as the customers leave.

Farm fresh is best!

Danderman123 · July 3, 2022

1 hour ago, Olmate said:

Farm fresh is best!

I was in Bar Code in LK Metro a couple of days ago, and 5 ladies came in with suitcases.

Fresh off the bus.

petermik · July 3, 2022

13 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I was in Bar Code in LK Metro a couple of days ago, and 5 ladies came in with suitcases.

Fresh off the bus.

Fresh deliveries from the weed growing farms..........

jacko45k · July 3, 2022

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Getting back to Pattaya, I am detecting a big downturn in customers in Pattaya over the last week. I have a fairly accurate method for determine the customer numbers in Pattaya: the number of ladies messaging me for a visit to my place shot through the roof last week. The phone was ringing off the hook.

The same ladies who ignored me for the last six months. Because they were busy with customers.

The irony is the number of ladies arriving from Isaan is increasing as the customers leave.

I was in town today and it did seem quiet..... something deterring the locals coming from Bangkok?

PJ71 · July 3, 2022

4 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

I was in town today and it did seem quiet..... something deterring the locals coming from Bangkok?

They're all at the Chonburi GP i would suspect.

Danderman123 · July 3, 2022

Despite the reduced customers, there are plenty of new bars opening, some of them large.

Also, lots of Indians in some bars, no problem for Thai ladies.

champers · July 7, 2022

Prime Burger have opened a branch at Central Festival on the bottom floor. From 2nd Rd go down the escalator and it is on the RHS opposite the supermarket and next to Mister Donut. Menu is as Soi Buakhao, with the daily special. Was empty when I went by at 4.30.

kinyara · July 7, 2022

54 minutes ago, champers said:

Prime Burger have opened a branch at Central Festival on the bottom floor. From 2nd Rd go down the escalator and it is on the RHS opposite the supermarket and next to Mister Donut. Menu is as Soi Buakhao, with the daily special. Was empty when I went by at 4.30.

Good news, been burgerless when I visit Central since Carl Jr's bit the dust. ????

champers · July 7, 2022

6 minutes ago, kinyara said:

Good news, been burgerless when I visit Central since Carl Jr's bit the dust. ????

The aircon is not as icy as Carls.

redwood1 · July 8, 2022

14 hours ago, champers said:

Prime Burger have opened a branch at Central Festival on the bottom floor. From 2nd Rd go down the escalator and it is on the RHS opposite the supermarket and next to Mister Donut. Menu is as Soi Buakhao, with the daily special. Was empty when I went by at 4.30.

Well Prime Burger is cheaper and a better deal than many of the food items for sale in the overpriced food court....

Edited July 8, 2022 by redwood1

Danderman123 · July 8, 2022

Escape club opened last week, a huge venue. Lots of other new bars opening.

it’s kind of similar to pre-Covid low seasons before.

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