The "Game Changer" (that must come)...........

[ukrules]

11 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

UK government to facilitate says minister

 

I will believe it when it happens.

 

[Surelynot]

2 minutes ago, ukrules said:

 

I will believe it when it happens.

 

You have a point.....Johnson will prevaricate for so long that by the time he gets it up and running the whole world will have been vaccinated.

[onebir]

30 minutes ago, Somchai Jackson said:

Well if you don't then the white westerners will be discriminating against people of color like they usually do.  Back to white privilege based on vaccinations.  Like normal.

Are there are no westerners of colour???

[foreverlomsak]

51 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

UK government to facilitate says minister

Across the whole world I can envisage the following happening, I hope not but.

Yes, you've been vaccinated with vaccine A, we don't use that one in this country we use vaccine B, unless you have a certificate for vaccine B you can't come here as your a COVID risk.

How many different vaccines can you safely take.

[Rancid]

Vaccines do not guarantee either immunity or that you can't spread covid. The idea presumably is vaccinate everyone reducing the amount of potential hosts until it dies out itself. I would imagine many countries will be vaccinated by the end of this year, then give it 6 -12 months of watching to see if it pops up again. If not then travel should restart. Remember the Australian city of Perth went into lock down for a week as one (1) person in a city of 2.5 million tested positive.

[Leaver]

39 minutes ago, foreverlomsak said:

Across the whole world I can envisage the following happening, I hope not but.

Yes, you've been vaccinated with vaccine A, we don't use that one in this country we use vaccine B, unless you have a certificate for vaccine B you can't come here as your a COVID risk.

How many different vaccines can you safely take.

 

Vaccine A and B are the same, when it comes to international travel. 

 

Whether vaccine A or B, you can still be infected, and still spread the virus.

 

The traveller will need to be vaccinated, and the majority of people in the country that the traveller wishes to visit will also have to be vaccinated, and for Thailand, with 70 million people, that could take years. 

 

Thai tourists islands like Phuket and Samui, which have airports, can vaccinate 50% to 60% of the island population to get some tourism started, but as for mainland Thailand, not a lot will change until 2022.    

[foreverlomsak]

2 minutes ago, Leaver said:

Vaccine A and B are the same, when it comes to international travel. 

Are you sure as some vaccines are more effective against this variant and not that, and don't work against some by what I've read, I'm no virologist so I don't really know.

Applying Thai policy on Insurances (yes you are covered for 10 million USD, but it's not from one of our approved policy companies, so not acceptable) to vaccines I can envisage this happening.

[Leaver]

23 minutes ago, foreverlomsak said:

Are you sure as some vaccines are more effective against this variant and not that, and don't work against some by what I've read, I'm no virologist so I don't really know.

Applying Thai policy on Insurances (yes you are covered for 10 million USD, but it's not from one of our approved policy companies, so not acceptable) to vaccines I can envisage this happening.

 

With all respect, I think you, and some other members. are missing the point I am making, and which is now being reported, as the vaccine is being rolled out, globally.

 

It's not just about the effectiveness of the vaccine that the potential traveller receives.  It's also about the vaccination rate of the country the traveller wishes to visit, in this case, we are discussing Thailand.  

 

For example, let's say 80% of the UK population was vaccinated by next week, but vaccinations have not started to be rolled out in Thailand, then Thailand is not opening up its borders.  

 

It's not only about who is coming to Thailand, it's also about if the Thai population is vaccinated to a point that Thailand can accept visitors. 

 

On that basis, you are looking at 2022, at best. 

 

70 million people, even 50% is 35 million people.  The logistics are huge.  Thailand will get there, but it will not be until well into 2022. 

 

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Leaver

[foreverlomsak]

6 minutes ago, Leaver said:

For example, let's say 80% of the UK population was vaccinated by next week, but vaccinations have not started to be rolled out in Thailand, then Thailand is not opening up its borders.  

they will by maintaining mandatory quarantine along with appropriate vaccination records, and that is what I expect short term.

[ericthai]

15 hours ago, HashBrownHarry said:

Curb you pessimism, things are improving everywhere.

 

At times it sounds like you don't want things to get better, along with a couple of other posters that comment doom and gloom all the time.

 

yes, things are better but, allot of people lost their jobs and dont have any money to go anywhere. 

[Leaver]

3 minutes ago, foreverlomsak said:

they will by maintaining mandatory quarantine along with appropriate vaccination records, and that is what I expect short term.

 

I thought we were discussing tourism.  

 

What tourist, who wants a 2 week holiday in Thailand, will do mandatory quarantine?  

[BritManToo]

5 hours ago, Leaver said:

There would need to be at least 50% to 60% of Thai's vaccinated, before international travellers are allowed to enter Thailand.  That said, tourists areas like Phuket may vaccinate the island's Thai population and than enforce a no Thai's in or out policy until the majority of the Thai population has been vaccinated.  They may do this in order to start to revive some tourism, in some areas.

 

If the current vaccines are only 67% effective.

Wouldn't they need to vaccinate 100% of the world to get near the immunity level (70%) the WHO claims is required? 

 

PS.

I agree with Jingthing, can't see much in the way of tourism happening for the next 3+ years.

If anything, 2024 is probably a bit optimistic.

Edited February 5, 2021 by BritManToo

[Leaver]

3 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

 

If the current vaccines are only 67% effective.

Wouldn't they need to vaccinate 100% of the world to get near the immunity level (70%) the WHO claims is required? 

 

PS.

I agree with Jingthing, can't see much in the way of tourism happening for the next 3+ years.

If anything, 2024 is probably a bit optimistic.

 

 

Like I have said, Thai islands like Phuket and Samui, may go for vaccinating the island's population and then shutting the island off to everyone except vaccinated tourists.  They have that luxury because they are islands with an airport.

 

As for mainland Thailand, unless Thailand fudges the books, it will be well into 2022, and beyond. 

 

This is where the reality of Thailand being a 3rd Would Country is on show for the world to see.    

[talahtnut]

Vaccines are big business, expect more pandemics and more deadly ones.

[Surelynot]

3 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

Vaccines are big business, expect more pandemics and more deadly ones.

Rubbish

[impulse]

1 hour ago, Leaver said:

On that basis, you are looking at 2022, at best. 

 

70 million people, even 50% is 35 million people.  The logistics are huge.  Thailand will get there, but it will not be until well into 2022. 

 

The current plan seems to be rolling out 5 million doses a month, starting in June, 2021.  That's 70 million doses (14 months) to get half of Thailand vaccinated. 

 

Unless they go with the J&J single dose solution.  But that's still into 2022, and contingent on no new variants popping up.

 

[Leaver]

5 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

The current plan seems to be rolling out 5 million doses a month, starting in June, 2021.  That's 70 million doses (14 months) to get half of Thailand vaccinated. 

 

Unless they go with the J&J single dose solution.  But that's still into 2022, and contingent on no new variants popping up.

 

 

Yes, but currently 2 doses needed, so the 5 million doses is only 2.5 million Thai's vaccinated.  

[impulse]

14 minutes ago, Leaver said:

Yes, but currently 2 doses needed, so the 5 million doses is only 2.5 million Thai's vaccinated.  

 

If they do it properly, you're right.  Well into the 2nd half of 2022.

 

Sadly, my bet is that one or 2 months at 2.5 million a month will get all the "important" people vaccinated.  Then they'll throw the rest of the population to the wolves.  So the important people can get back to raking in tourist money.

 

Everyone's doing their math and prognostications based on egalitarianism.  But we all know better.

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by impulse

[Leaver]

4 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

If they do it properly, you're right.  Well into the 2nd half of 2022.

 

Sadly, my bet is that one or 2 months at 2.5 million a month will get all the "important" people vaccinated.  Then they'll throw the rest of the population to the wolves.  So the important people can get back to raking in tourist money.

 

 

Can Thailand afford the bad global publicity of their poorer citizens dying in huge numbers due to tourism?   

[impulse]

2 minutes ago, Leaver said:

Can Thailand afford the bad global publicity of their poorer citizens dying in huge numbers due to tourism?   

 

You mean all those people dying of respiratory diseases that will have nothing to do with the Covid?  That's if they report them at all.

[Scott]

Off-topic post reported and removed.

 

[Leaver]

11 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

You mean all those people dying of respiratory diseases that will have nothing to do with the Covid?  That's if they report them at all.

 

Yes, I am sure "pneumonia" will be blamed. 

 

However, i  think the Thai government will find it difficult to spin this one, particularly with the elderly expat population here.  They will have to be vaccinated before tourists are allowed back.  

[impulse]

2 hours ago, Leaver said:

Yes, I am sure "pneumonia" will be blamed. 

 

However, i  think the Thai government will find it difficult to spin this one, particularly with the elderly expat population here.  They will have to be vaccinated before tourists are allowed back.  

 

You're probably right, but I still contend it's a race between rolling out the vaccinations and total economic devastation.

 

[ukrules]

5 hours ago, foreverlomsak said:

Are you sure as some vaccines are more effective against this variant and not that, and don't work against some by what I've read, I'm no virologist so I don't really know.

Applying Thai policy on Insurances (yes you are covered for 10 million USD, but it's not from one of our approved policy companies, so not acceptable) to vaccines I can envisage this happening.

The Swiss have not approved the AstraZeneca vaccine for their own people - why would they allow anyone into the country who's had the AZ vaccine?

 

They won't and I have a sneaking suspicion that the name of the specific vaccine will never be released on any documentation.

 

This is a diplomatic and bureaucratic nightmare....which is partly why I think it will never happen.

[sharksy]

21 hours ago, Henryford said:

Did the flu jab eradicate flu? 'nuff said.

There aint much Flu around this year, what with everyone isolating.

[jacko45k]

21 hours ago, Henryford said:

Did the flu jab eradicate flu? 'nuff said.

Did the polio jab eradicate polio.....

Did the smallpox jab eradicate smallpox

 

 

[jacko45k]

7 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

Can Thailand afford the bad global publicity of their poorer citizens dying in huge numbers due to tourism?   

They appear to have already thrown them under the bus. 

[Henryford]

3 hours ago, jacko45k said:

Did the polio jab eradicate polio.....

Did the smallpox jab eradicate smallpox

 

 

 

Are they coronaviruses? If it's so easy to eradicate Covid (after 6 months) why have we suffered fron colds and flu for the last 100 years.

[jacko45k]

1 hour ago, Henryford said:

 

Are they coronaviruses? If it's so easy to eradicate Covid (after 6 months) why have we suffered fron colds and flu for the last 100 years.

Not sure why you are focusing on colds and flu.... as you say been around for a long time. But personally  I am not old enough to have had either for 100 years. 

Who said it was easy to eradicate Covid, and for heaven's sake, it has only been around 12-13 months!

 

[BritManToo]

15 hours ago, Leaver said:

Like I have said, Thai islands like Phuket and Samui, may go for vaccinating the island's population and then shutting the island off to everyone except vaccinated tourists.  They have that luxury because they are islands with an airport.

It's up to Prayut, not the islands.

And I can't see him agreeing to that.