Thailand reports 2,044 new coronavirus cases, 27 new deaths

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

A very tenous issue Covid has become.  Life without knowing, because of no mass testing, yet the numbers hover in the 2k area and continue in line with double digit deaths.  

While the nation sits by waiting for the chosen firm to start producing vaccines to try and reverse this trend.

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Get >2000 with low mass testing (argue against this if you will) and the infections rate MUST be higher. BKK alone should be doing 10,000+ tests a day. Test more, find more. This is one way to stop clusters early.

The other way is to have had a vaccination programme in progress.

[ourmanflint]

7 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

Rolled out globally that's 780,000,000 cases so far. ???

 

Is that really that unbelievable? 154 million confirmed cases so far

Edited May 7, 2021 by ourmanflint

[Bkk Brian]

43 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Active testing has a posivity rate of 4-6%. PUI and walk-in testing have much higher rates, but they don't represent the general population. 

 

Today, 220 cases were discovered via targeted active case finding, for the whole country. 

False.

 

PUI absolutely represents the general population, they've gone into hospital, lab or health center to get tested of their own accord, be that through symptoms, feeling they may been at risk of a very small minority (double figures) because of notifications from hotels or apps. This is a representative figure through the whole country, today there were 1,820 of them.

 

PUI entering hospital for tests by far is the biggest amount of random people who get tested of their own accord.

 

Here's some other information for you to learn. Until the number of hosptial walk ins reduces and goes under the percentage of those found via active case finding, then its proof that there are simply not enough tests being done to find people out in the community pro actively.

Edited May 7, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[anchadian]

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40000636

 

_{GPO to start making Favipiravir after Japanese pharma’s patent request rejected}

[Danderman123]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

False.

 

PUI absolutely represents the general population, they've gone into hospital, lab or health center to get tested of their own accord, be that through symptoms, feeling they may been at risk of a very small minority (double figures) because of notifications from hotels or apps. This is a representative figure through the whole country, today there were 1,820 of them.

 

PUI entering hospital for tests by far is the biggest amount of random people who get tested of their own accord.

 

Here's some other information for you to learn. Until the number of hosptial walk ins reduces and goes under the percentage of those found via active case finding, then its proof that there are simply not enough tests being done to find people out in the community pro actively.

By definition, no self selected group can be considered "random". By mixing up persons under investigation with random testing, you are just confusing people. 

 

Yes, I know you get all wrapped up in my calling " Active Case Finding" as random testing. 

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Danderman123 said:

By definition, no self selected group can be considered "random". By mixing up persons under investigation with random testing, you are just confusing people. 

 

Yes, I know you get all wrapped up in my calling " Active Case Finding" as random testing. 

They are by definition a random selection of people throughout the country who are either suffering symptoms or been in a high risk area so need to check. 

 

Your last feeble comment is a waste of time, I have already sent you the info on terms,

 

Next............

[Fex Bluse]

5 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Get >2000 with low mass testing (argue against this if you will) and the infections rate MUST be higher. BKK alone should be doing 10,000+ tests a day. Test more, find more. This is one way to stop clusters early.

It's probably too late. "Brazil" variant has been detected. Only a matter of time before "India" variant as well, probably coming across from Myanmar and the fighting there.

 

The Thais refuse to be serious and so they'll pay a significant price. 

 

To all the people who think they are testing properly and somehome, magically, beyond any mathematical reality, the cases are stable everyday: you shall see soon.

 

Edited May 7, 2021 by Fex Bluse

[Danderman123]

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

They are by definition a random selection of people throughout the country who are either suffering symptoms or been in a high risk area so need to check. 

 

Your last feeble comment is a waste of time, I have already sent you the info on terms,

 

Next............

Remind me again how a group of sick people are in any way representative of Thailand as a whole? 

 

As an aside, it's well known in polling that random sampling of voters is much more accurate than self selecting online polls. 

[Danderman123]

1 minute ago, Fex Bluse said:

It's probably too late. "Brazil" variant has been detected. Only a matter of time before "India" variant as well, probably coming across from Myanmar and the fighting there.

 

The Thais refuse to be serious and so they'll pay a significant price. 

 

To all the people who think they are testing properly and somehome, magically, beyond any mathematical reality, the cases are stable everyday: you shall see soon.

 

Yeah, you can repeat your mantra over and over, but answer this:

 

Chonburi is extensively tested every day. Why aren't the numbers that high? 

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Danderman123 said:

Remind me again how a group of sick people are in any way representative of Thailand as a whole? 

 

As an aside, it's well known in polling that random sampling of voters is much more accurate than self selecting online polls. 

Its a random selection of the general public who have gotten sick through catching the virus, although not all are sick or have symptoms.

 

 

 

Your aside is a ridiculous statement on random voters has nothing to do with this

[Fex Bluse]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

From Friday's televised English language COVID news briefing by the government. Numbers below are the new cases for the most recent day. The provinces chart also includes a recap of total cases by province since the start of April.

 

 

 

 

The most useful info in these stats and graphs are the (typical) cartoons.  ????

 

On a serious note, thank you for taking the time to post all the stats, though they are likely wildly inaccurate. Whether the reported numbers are rising or falling is useful to some extent. 

Edited May 7, 2021 by Fex Bluse

[rabas]

21 minutes ago, ourmanflint said:

 

Is that really that unbelievable? 154 million confirmed cases so far

 

But cases are not distributed uniformly was the point, viruses don't work that way. Just because  a sample in Klong Toei is 10% positive doesn't suddenly make 10% of Buriram positive, which was imped in the post.

[Danderman123]

Today's CCSA briefing stated that 26,000 tests will be conducted in Bangkok hot spots. The authorities are prepping 1,300 beds for discovered infections. 

 

Can anyone here calculate the expected positively rate for those tests? 

 

This Active Case Finding will test people randomly selected in hot spots. 

[anchadian]

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40000637

 

Over-60s in Thailand to get Sinovac vaccine

 

 

China’s Sinovac vaccine will be administered to people aged over 60 in Thailand, said Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul after presiding over a National Communicable Disease Committee meeting on Friday.

 

The committee also approved minimum fines of THB1,000 for not wearing a face mask in public.
 

Edited May 7, 2021 by anchadian

[Fex Bluse]

10 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Yeah, you can repeat your mantra over and over, but answer this:

 

Chonburi is extensively tested every day. Why aren't the numbers that high? 

 

How do you know Chonburi is extensively tested every day? Are you part of the testing effort or have you simply chosen to believe something you've been told? That's your answer. ????

 

1. The Thai infrastructure is largely incompetent. I don't think anyone would genuinely be surprised by this -- especially anyone who has lived here for long.

 

2. Thailand has a STRONG incentive to underreport. Haven't you seen the incessant pleas to lure tourists back - even before it's safe to do so? A massive chunk of Thailand's economy is virtually shut down. Previously (and obviously dishonestly) reported to be 9% of GDP but recently admitted to be well over 20% (which is still too low).

Edited May 7, 2021 by Fex Bluse

[ourmanflint]

17 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

But cases are not distributed uniformly was the point, viruses don't work that way. Just because  a sample in Klong Toei is 10% positive doesn't suddenly make 10% of Buriram positive, which was imped in the post.

Actually no, that is exactly how viruses work. If one area has a specific infection rate for a set population density, then you can expect similar sized populations to have similar infection rates, they just won't have them at the same time. There is uniformity over time.

 

edit: Actually we're probably saying the same thing from different angles, all things being equal, infection rates will be very similar

Edited May 7, 2021 by ourmanflint

[Bkk Brian]

4 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Today's CCSA briefing stated that 26,000 tests will be conducted in Bangkok hot spots. The authorities are prepping 1,300 beds for discovered infections. 

 

Can anyone here calculate the expected positively rate for those tests? 

 

This Active Case Finding will test people randomly selected in hot spots. 

Why guess, why not wait until the official public announcement on the results. Do you know when that will be?

 

However feel free to be the first to guess and note it for yourself.

[club]

5 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Worrying no let up with this wave spreading fast in Bangkok.

 

New cluster 160 cases found in Bang Kae after Covid-19 tests at a department store in Bang Kae. from B.P.

With 10 million people in Bangkok I would be mass testing everywhere in Bangkok. The numbers would probably triple.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

18 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Today's CCSA briefing stated that 26,000 tests will be conducted in Bangkok hot spots. The authorities are prepping 1,300 beds for discovered infections. 

 

Can anyone here calculate the expected positively rate for those tests? 

 

 

AFAIK, the way they came to the 1,300+ new hospital beds per week projection was to assume an overall five percent positivity rate -- meaning all those folks would have to find space somewhere in the hospital and related facilities system.

 

[Danderman123]

17 minutes ago, Fex Bluse said:

 

How do you know Chonburi is extensively tested every day? Are you part of the testing effort or have you simply chosen to believe something you've been told? That's your answer. ????

 

1. The Thai infrastructure is largely incompetent. I don't think anyone would genuinely be surprised by this -- especially anyone who has lived here for long.

 

2. Thailand has a STRONG incentive to underreport. Haven't you seen the incessant pleas to lure tourists back - even before it's safe to do so? A massive chunk of Thailand's economy is virtually shut down. Previously (and obviously dishonestly) reported to be 9% of GDP but recently admitted to be well over 20% (which is still too low).

The Chonburi active case findings numbers are published daily, along with other significant data. 
 

Do you think the Chonburi data is fake?

[Excel]

49 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

While the nation sits by waiting for the chosen firm to start producing vaccines to try and reverse this trend.

I think that there will more interest in filling their pockets than filling peoples arms unfortunately

[ourmanflint]

11 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

AFAIK, the way they came to the 1,300+ new hospital beds per week projection was to assume an overall five percent positivity rate -- meaning all those folks would have to find space somewhere in the hospital and related facilities system.

 

A 5% positivity rate was the worst London had during our peak back In January and February. 5% is extremely serious

 

edit: Sorry 5% infection rate, positivity was 25%

 

edit: UK went into 4 month lockdown at 5% positivity

Edited May 7, 2021 by ourmanflint

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Details on the 27 new COVID fatalities reported on Friday:

 

15 men, 12 women. Age range 30 to 90.  Median age 61

 

Locations:

18 in Bangkok

2 each from Samut Prakan and Nonthaburi

 

13 of the total were believed to have become infected from contacts with infected family members.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/thaimoph/posts/303565664586677

 

 

Edited May 7, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Danderman123]

6 minutes ago, Excel said:

I think that there will more interest in filling their pockets than filling peoples arms unfortunately

Obviously, the vaccine fiasco is going to result in long term damage to the country.

 

They can contain the epidemic, but they can’t stop it without the vaccine.

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Obviously, the vaccine fiasco is going to result in long term damage to the country.

 

They can contain the epidemic, but they can’t stop it without the vaccine.

Exactly so it can spike again at any time, despite your prediction that the peak is over.

 

They are struggling to have any form of control now and its not getting better in the last week in Bangkok, only worse.

[Excel]

8 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Obviously, the vaccine fiasco is going to result in long term damage to the country.

 

They can contain the epidemic, but they can’t stop it without the vaccine.

Currently they can not contain the epidemic, why do you say they can ? If they could contain it then there would be no outbreaks outside already infected areas. Almost weekly they find "hot spot" in different locales so to say they can contain it is a nonsense like almost all of your posts on this subject.

Edited May 7, 2021 by Excel

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

An update and further details on the announcement earlier that Thailand will be receiving Pfizer vaccines in the second half of the year:

 

"The Ministry of Public Health has now asked Pfizer to submit the necessary documents and data to the Food and Drugs Administration for approval of the emergency use of their vaccine, as the company has insisted the vaccine deal can only be made with the government or a government agency.

 

Thailand is now in talks with several vaccine manufacturers to secure more COVID-19 vaccine supplies, in addition to Sinovac and AstraZeneca vaccines.

 

The vaccine procurement task force chaired by Dr Piyasakol Sakolsatayadorn, has reached a conclusion that the government will be procuring more vaccines from Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, and the Gamaleya Research Institute which produces Sputnik V vaccine.

 

The task force has urged the Food and Drugs Administration to encourage more vaccine manufacturers and distributors to file for regulatory approval of their vaccines in Thailand."

 

https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/posts/10157999836887050

 

The government previously has said publicly that it plans to mainly use its future Pfizer vaccines on teenagers and youngsters.

 

 

Edited May 7, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[anchadian]

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40000639

 

Sputnik V should be approved for use in Thailand next month: FDA

The reason Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine has not been registered for use in Thailand is because the importer Kingen Biotech Ltd has not yet submitted full documentation for registration, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said on Friday.

[rabas]

10 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

The Ministry of Public Health has now asked Pfizer to submit the necessary documents and data to the Food and Drugs Administration for approval of the emergency use of their vaccine, as the company has insisted the vaccine deal can only be made with the government or a government agency.

 

Pfizer must be just ecstatic, must look like NASA control when they landed on Mars.

 

The second half of the year is a very long way away for the current outbreak. Even next week is.

 

Edited May 7, 2021 by rabas