Thailand reports daily record of 9,635 new COVID-19 cases, including jail cluster

[Marvin Hagler]

2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Wow angry much, 

Oops, looks like I upset one of the rose coloured glasses brigade.

 

He’ll be so angry he will fall off his 7/11 concrete bench.

[Been There]

3 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

One would hope so. So hopefully no one in jail has kidney disease or lung disease or diabeties or chronic obesity or any other comorbity that puts you at a higher risk of severe illness or death from covid-19.

Well is that not the same % of people who are not in prison ?

[Bkk Brian]

58 minutes ago, TaoNow said:

 

Please provide evidence, sir.

Looking a the charts it looks out of control to me

[dinsdale]

2 minutes ago, Been There said:

Well is that not the same % of people who are not in prison ?

Maybe not as people from poor socioeconic situations usually have more comorbidities and the majority of prisoners are from poor socioeconomic situations. 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

From AFP:

Thailand virus cases soar with prison clusters

 

Thailand reported a new daily high of nearly 10,000 coronavirus cases on Monday, more than two-thirds of them in prisons, as the kingdom battles its third wave of the pandemic.

 

The kingdom's Covid-19 task force reported 9,635 new cases, 6,853 of which were among prisoners.

Nearly half of 24,000 inmates tested at eight prisons, mainly in Bangkok and its suburbs, including several where prominent democracy activists have been detained, were found to have the virus.

...

Justice Minister Somsak Thepsuthin said he may have to consider special probation for inmates if the prison clusters are not brought under control.

(more)

 

https://www.thejakartapost.com/seasia/2021/05/17/thailand-virus-cases-soar-with-prison-clusters-.html

 

 

Edited May 17, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Been There]

1 minute ago, dinsdale said:

Maybe not as people from poor socioeconic situations usually have more comorbidities and the majority of prisoners are from poor socioeconomic situations. 

There's more elderly people at risk who are not in prison, so if anything ... there should be a lower % of inmates die.

 

[dinsdale]

5 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Looking a the charts it looks out of control to me

From single digits to quadruple digits and almost quintuple digits (maybe soon) in 6 wks. Absolutely no one in their right mind can say this is under control. 

[Miami007]

1 hour ago, Blumpie said:

You forgot about how many will end up on oxygen, and have long term health effects for possibly the rest of their lives.  There's no way to tell, but the number is around 10 percent.  

But hey, let's just look at those death numbers.

By the way, COVID is so transmissible that 25 percent is a pipe dream.  

 

The USA has about 10% of the population who tested positive.

Thailand has 100,000 out of 65 million.  Not even  close to 1%.  Last year we were told that 70 to 80% of the population would be infected in a few months... that never happened.

Also, death rate is 0.23% as per WHO.. Most deaths in old, sick people. 

Long-covid is a hypothesis as covid hasn't been around that long.  As most infections show no or mild symptoms, 10% of all infections being in that category would mean that should half of people who have symptoms fall in that category... seems a tad exaggerated

[Bradmeister]

The prison system was " excluded"?

 

Because it was a "Cluster"?  What kind of non sense is that? 

 

Thats odd.  So, what else may we be excluding ( in the cluster categories) until the next insider becomes an outsider? 

 

Military bases?

Government Centers?

Hospitals and Service Clinics?

Parlament? 

The Monarchy? 

 

To this day, has anyone been appraised of the Current Mutation Designation? 

 

As this allegedly was from China....it has now circulated around 26000 + miles of the planets circumferrence. 

 

Since we are not the top country, well known for genetic nome sequencing.... 

 

Who can really predict how many more will die from our inability to act, and how many more will die from secondary pneumonia? 

[moe666]

11 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Kaboom, there you have it.  The jails, well many of them have reported.  Lets hope they can get a handle on it.  It is not just inmates, everyone that works in or around the facilities are at risk.  Get the vaccinations rolling out. 2782 cases also not related to the prisons, so that number keeps on rolling.  Waiting to see that breakdown of where those cases are throughout Thailand, but of course at least half may be in Bangkok with the newly found clusters amongst construction workers camps.

Thats were it came from the guards, the maintenace guys, and who else has a reason to visit. They are always behind the 8 ball playing catch up

[Rhacsyn]

37 minutes ago, ourmanflint said:

Quick question, does the Sars-Cov-2 virus behave differently in Thailand for some unknown reason than it does everywhere else in the world, and if not why are you expecting a different outcome?

The virus is of course the same but may be, just may be, the immune system cells of some Thai people have retained a memory from viruses from years gone by

[Skeptic7]

3 hours ago, Scottie12 said:

Phuket has been hit very hard owing to the idiots from the Kolour group organizing a massive rave in Cafe Del Mar, how they got away with this defies belief.

Hit hard? The entire Kingdom has not been "hit hard". Rave On! ????

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, the green light said:

It has been proven in other countries that any preventive measures to contain the virus have not eliminated the spread of the virus .Mask and social distancing just contained the number for skyrocketing.

 

The  number will go down once quick vaccination will start. If local AZ is not available by the first of next month, it will be a problem because the government orders for other vaccines  are in queue and are not  available immediately

 

They may get few millions but not enough to vaccinate 50million people by end of this year.

 

we all hope for the best.

Nonsense, vaccines will not make the numbers will not go down with masks and social distancing alone quickly enough

 

Nobody claims lockdown measures can eliminate the virus, it can however delay and reduce it enough to then ease those measures along with a vaccination roll out.

[Golden Triangle]

4 hours ago, OneeyedJohn said:

Prison hospital?

 

That's a death sentence as soon as they wheel you in there ????

[Golden Triangle]

4 hours ago, AlQaholic said:

Don't commit a crime in Thailand.....

Bottom right corner, 4th one up from the guy in the red shirt, his body don't match his legs, wierd or what ? 

[Miami007]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

Did you miss where i said 2 - 4 weeks. No they do not need to last several months, thats a pure fallacy. The UK lockdown circuit breakers can last from anything from two weeks to 2 months. 

 

"The hope is they are less damaging - to the economy and people's mental health - than a longer lockdown, because people can plan ahead more easily."

 

"A temporary lockdown in New Zealand, which successfully allowed contact tracers to get back on top of the outbreak there, can be seen as a circuit-breaker even though it was not called that." Australia also did a successfull 7 day lockdown.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54206582

 

No 4 week lockdown worked once there was a fairly high level of. Community infection.

 

USA: 15 days to stop the spread.. got extended by 1 month, then another. In Miami, curfews and other restrictions existed 1 year later.

Germany implemented the lockdown in November.. still going on. Initially people were told that it would last 1 month.

Similar situation in other European countries which had 6 months during the winter.

 

Lockdowns need to be permanent or severe (nobody works or goes outside, food gets delivered by the government) to work. Otherwise, it only suppresses and delays infections. 

Even the Wuhan or Melbourne Lockdowns lasted for several months. 

 

Lockdowns are not a strategy to eradicate a virus, just suppress infections to give time to upscale medical capacity. 

Zero covid is an illusion unless you are on an island and close contact with the outside world before the virus gets there.  And then remain closed

[ThailandRyan]

21 minutes ago, Miami007 said:

The USA has about 10% of the population who tested positive.

Thailand has 100,000 out of 65 million.  Not even  close to 1%.  Last year we were told that 70 to 80% of the population would be infected in a few months... that never happened.

Also, death rate is 0.23% as per WHO.. Most deaths in old, sick people. 

Long-covid is a hypothesis as covid hasn't been around that long.  As most infections show no or mild symptoms, 10% of all infections being in that category would mean that should half of people who have symptoms fall in that category... seems a tad exaggerated

Only in your view is it exaggerated. Unfortunately I know folks who a year later are still struggling. One is a nurse who is 28 and a good friend of my daughter who was infected at the hospital.  My former work partner who up until covid hit him was a triathlete and is just starting to walk again he was on a ventilator for 52 days.  Go preach your beliefs on the mountain.  I know what I know and believe. By the way the nurse is a traveling nurse from Florida

Edited May 17, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[Miami007]

4 hours ago, rozand said:

as a medical professional cases for me still represent sick people. How should i interpret these numbers?

My brother in law is chief of a department in a major hospital.

My niece had covid and no symptoms.. according to him, she was healthy until she becomes sick and needs a doctor.

 

A strange disease when you need a test to tell you that you are sick - because you wouldn't know otherwise in most cases. 

[Bkk Brian]

13 minutes ago, Miami007 said:

No 4 week lockdown worked once there was a fairly high level of. Community infection.

 

USA: 15 days to stop the spread.. got extended by 1 month, then another. In Miami, curfews and other restrictions existed 1 year later.

Germany implemented the lockdown in November.. still going on. Initially people were told that it would last 1 month.

Similar situation in other European countries which had 6 months during the winter.

 

Lockdowns need to be permanent or severe (nobody works or goes outside, food gets delivered by the government) to work. Otherwise, it only suppresses and delays infections. 

Even the Wuhan or Melbourne Lockdowns lasted for several months. 

 

Lockdowns are not a strategy to eradicate a virus, just suppress infections to give time to upscale medical capacity. 

Zero covid is an illusion unless you are on an island and close contact with the outside world before the virus gets there.  And then remain closed

I just have to assume you didn't read my post fully. I'm specifically talking about short circuit breaker lockdowns look at the BBC link I posted

 

The examples you gave are not of lockdowns but of strict measures, for example : Germany: Under the amended law, the government in Berlin will be able to impose an overnight curfew and shut schools wherever infection rates rise too high.

 

On a separate note a study was done on the success of Thailands 6 week soft lockdown last year https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7305760/

Edited May 17, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[TaoNow]

36 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Looking a the charts it looks out of control to me

 

 

 

Brian, my pal, as I mentioned earlier in this thread, and as Danderman and I have suggested:  Look at the national Covid-29 mortality data over time.

 

"dinsdale" has already gone to the trouble of checking out his local Thai hospital to see if bed occupancy is reaching capacity.  

That would be the best indicator if the situation is 'out of control.'

 

Please encourage all your brethren to check their local hospital for bed occupancy and report back.

 

That is the only empirical evidence we have since very few people on this forum believe the government data.

[Bkk Brian]

5 minutes ago, TaoNow said:

 

Brian, my pal, as I mentioned earlier in this thread, and as Danderman and I have suggested:  Look at the national Covid-29 mortality data over time.

 

"dinsdale" has already gone to the trouble of checking out his local Thai hospital to see if bed occupancy is reaching capacity.  

That would be the best indicator if the situation is 'out of control.'

 

Please encourage all your brethren to check their local hospital for bed occupancy and report back.

 

That is the only empirical evidence we have since very few people on this forum believe the government data.

Looking at mortality rate is a little late in the game to stop the spread and people dying my pal.

 

The hospital or lack or hospital beds in ICU and covid wards is posted at least every other day on these threads, you may want to check yourself, its not pretty reading. As for my local area I already check and last week they were at critical stage for ICU admission because of covid patients.

Edited May 17, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[Golden Triangle]

4 hours ago, anchadian said:

PM tells Corrections Dept. to treat infected inmates humanely as cases in prisons soar

 

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has instructed Thailand’s Corrections Department to step up active screening of prison inmates and to treat sick prisoners humanely, like any other patient, as the COVID-19 surge continues in prisons, said Government Deputy Spokesperson Traisulee Traisoranakul today (Monday).

 

She said that the prime minister is concerned over the situation in prisons, because of their cramped conditions and limited space, which are ideal for the spread of the disease, adding that he has instructed the Corrections Department to work closely with the Public Health Ministry in the efforts to contain the disease and to treat the infected inmates.

 

Meanwhile, Corrections Department Director-General Ayut Sinthopphan assured the public today that the department has not, and will not conceal the actual number of COVID-19 infections among prison inmates. The disease has already spread to eight prisons and 9,783 inmates have, so far, been infected.

 

 

More:

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/pm-tells-corrections-dept-to-treat-infected-inmates-humanely-as-cases-in-prisons-soar/

Even hell is to good for the people that run these institutions, how they can allow people to live under these conditions is beyond reprehensible. ????????

[riparian]

22 minutes ago, Golden Triangle said:

Bottom right corner, 4th one up from the guy in the red shirt, his body don't match his legs, wierd or what ? 

Tattoo?

[ExpatOilWorker]

24 minutes ago, Golden Triangle said:

Bottom right corner, 4th one up from the guy in the red shirt, his body don't match his legs, wierd or what ? 

I think he is wearing a dark T-shirt.

[TaoNow]

1 hour ago, ourmanflint said:

Quick question, does the Sars-Cov-2 virus behave differently in Thailand for some unknown reason than it does everywhere else in the world, and if not why are you expecting a different outcome?

Outmanflint:  Thanks for the question. 

 

That is the issue that many of my colleagues around the world have been discussing. 

 

Was it the masks in the early stages? 

Was it the international border closures? 

Was it the lock-downs and travel restrictions? 

Was it some pre-existing protection from exposure to other ARI pathogens that has kept Thai mortality low for Covid-19?

 

The fact is we don't know what explains Thailand's current level of Covid mortality. 

 

And I have no idea what the outcome will be of the path of this virus (in the absence of widespread vaccine coverage).

 

That is why I am appealing to posters to refrain from jumping to conclusions (e.g., that the Thai epidemic is out of control, that the government is falsifying case reports, that the data are being suppressed or manipulated).

 

There is no evidence that the Thai government is falsifying data.  Although there might be some irregularities in case reporting.

 

I think everyone should remain calm and as open-minded as possible, especially since this is a public forum, viewable by all. 

 

Until then, we should focus on the most empirical data availble, which is Covid deaths and Covid hospitalizations to assess the seriousness of the Thai Covid situation.

[daveAustin]

28 minutes ago, Golden Triangle said:

Bottom right corner, 4th one up from the guy in the red shirt, his body don't match his legs, wierd or what ? 

Back tatties, sun tan... ?

[TaoNow]

7 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Looking at mortality rate is a little late in the game to stop the spread and people dying my pal.

 

The hospital or lack or hospital beds in ICU and covid wards is posted at least every other day on these threads, you may want to check yourself, its not pretty reading. As for my local area I already check and last week they were at critical stage for ICU admission because of covid patients.

 

Brian:  Could you name your local hospital?  That would prevent duplication by other members who want to check their local hospitals.  Plus, if Covid beds and Covid ICU beds are increasing, that would surely have a strong correlation with Covid deaths.  Are you seeing them in the national data?

 

Also, when Covid kills, it kills fairly rapidly, so I don't think it is "too late in the game" to consider mortality as an indicator.

 

Surely, you would examine the trend lines in deaths (if you believe the data) if you wanted to assess the severity of the situation.

 

That would only support your argument of out-of-control spread, wouldn't it?

[Bkk Brian]

17 minutes ago, TaoNow said:

 

Brian:  Could you name your local hospital?  That would prevent duplication by other members who want to check their local hospitals.  Plus, if Covid beds and Covid ICU beds are increasing, that would surely have a strong correlation with Covid deaths.  Are you seeing them in the national data?

 

Also, when Covid kills, it kills fairly rapidly, so I don't think it is "too late in the game" to consider mortality as an indicator.

 

Surely, you would examine the trend lines in deaths (if you believe the data) if you wanted to assess the severity of the situation.

 

That would only support your argument of out-of-control spread, wouldn't it?

I do wonder why you differ in your opinion to the many Health Experts nationally that have expressed their concern.

 

Preventative measure are the only way, not monitoring death rates, getting data from death rates is a little late to have avoided them in the first place. Death rate data is great for assessing the impact of the virus but thats all.

 

As WHO says, TEST TEST TEST followed by all the other basic measure that do not need repeating again.

 

My local hospital: Here you can have a few links:

 

https://www.thephuketnews.com/phuket-health-officials-concerned-over-icu-bed-shortage-79903.php

 

https://thethaiger.com/news/phuket/icu-beds-for-covid-19-patients-in-phuket-are-close-to-a-critical-low

 

But that gives a very narrow picture of just one province, as I mentioned the national ICU and covid ward availability is normally posted here every two or 3 days direct from the official CCSA daily briefings.

Edited May 17, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[TaoNow]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I do wonder why you differ in your opinion to the many Health Experts nationally that have expressed their concern.

 

Preventative measure are the only way, not monitoring death rates, getting data from death rates is a little late to have avoided them in the first place. Death rate data is great for assessing the impact of the virus but thats all.

 

As WHO says, TEST TEST TEST followed by all the other basic measure that do not need repeating again.

 

My local hospital: Here you can have a few links:

 

https://www.thephuketnews.com/phuket-health-officials-concerned-over-icu-bed-shortage-79903.php

 

https://thethaiger.com/news/phuket/icu-beds-for-covid-19-patients-in-phuket-are-close-to-a-critical-low

 

https://www.thephuketnews.com/phuket-health-officials-concerned-over-icu-bed-shortage-79903.php

 

But that give a very narrow picture of just one province, as I mentioned the national ICU and covid ward availability is normally posted here every two or 3 days direct from the officall CCSA daily briefings.

Thank you Brian.  I love Phuket and lived there during 2008-2011.  Perhaps we crossed paths?

 

I am as frustrated as you and others about the inconsistency of the government Covid case report data. 

 

I have been imploring my erstwhile contacts with the MOPH to release the national time series of Covid sentinel surveillance data they presumably have on risk populations.  At least that would give some impartial indication of the levels and trends in spread.

 

Until then, all we have are the daily, new case reports which seem strangely constant to me too. 

 

And then you have the sudden data dumps of prisoner Covid, which may have been the result of testing conducted over many weeks.

 

With all these uncertainties and irregularities in the Thai testing and reporting system, I am appealing to you and others on the forum to focus on trends in Covid mortality and the hospital-bed occupancy rate as more reliable indicators to assess the severity of the epidemic -- even if we are somewhat behind the curve.

 

And even if we are late in our assessment, it won't change the government's Covid control strategy. 

 

So what is gained by crying foul?

 

 

 

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, TaoNow said:

Thank you Brian.  I love Phuket and lived there during 2008-2011.  Perhaps we crossed paths?

 

I am as frustrated as you and others about the inconsistency of the government Covid case report data. 

 

I have been imploring my erstwhile contacts with the MOPH to release the national time series of Covid sentinel surveillance data they presumably have on risk populations.  At least that would give some impartial indication of the levels and trends in spread.

 

Until then, all we have are the daily, new case reports which seem strangely constant to me too. 

 

And then you have the sudden data dumps of prisoner Covid, which may have been the result of testing conducted over many weeks.

 

With all these uncertainties and irregularities in the Thai testing and reporting system, I am appealing to you and others on the forum to focus on trends in Covid mortality and the hospital-bed occupancy rate as more reliable indicators to assess the severity of the epidemic -- even if we are somewhat behind the curve.

 

And even if we are late in our assessment, it won't change the government's Covid control strategy. 

 

So what is gained by crying foul?

 

 

 

 

 

Crying foul? Just repeating the words of these wise gentleman:

 

You should check out what they have to say publicly and officially: 

 

Thailand’s top virologist, Dr. Yong Poovorawan

Opas Karnkawinpong from the Disease Control Department

Dr. Prasit Watanapha, Dean of the Faculty of Medicine at Siriraj Hospital

Dr Sophon Iamsirithaworn Department of Disease Control (DDC) deputy director-general

 

Links to these have been posted countless times so if you'd like them just send me a PM so this thread does not get derailed. Good day to you