Delta variant to replace Alpha strain globally in next 4-5 months – Dr. Yong Poovorawan

[webfact]

 

Respected Thai virologist, Prof. Dr. Yong Poovorawan, of Chulalongkorn University, has predicted that the Delta (Indian) variant of COVID-19 will replace the Alpha (UK) variant as the dominant strain around the world in the next 4-5 months, because it is 1.4 times more transmissible than the Alpha strain.

 

He also said, however, that the severity of the symptoms caused by the two variants are not that different, but the mutated virus has an impact on the efficacy of vaccines produced from the original virus strain from Wuhan in China.

 

To cope more efficiently with the variants, Dr. Yong stressed the need for the development of a second generation of vaccines, which several pharmaceutical companies are now doing and which will take at least six months to roll out.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/delta-variant-will-replace-alpha-strain-globally-in-next-4-5-months-dr-yong-poovorawan/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2021-06-23

 

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[Justgrazing]

3 minutes ago, webfact said:

Respected Thai virologist, Prof. Dr. Yong Poovorawan, of Chulalongkorn University, has predicted that the Delta (Indian) variant of COVID-19 will replace the Alpha (UK) variant as the dominant strain around the world in the next 4-5 months,

 

Doc Yong Thailand's answer to Mystic Meg ..

but if Doc is this all seeing why ain't he clearing up on the lottery every week .. 

[RichardColeman]

The UK has been lucky in that the vaccine program has been rolled out far enough that the Indian variant wont effect us as much as it did India. 

 

if the Indian variant gets in Thailand in mass now before further vaccine roll out - or even with a 3% efficacy vaccine first jab - the mess will like Brutus being pumped after Popeye had eaten his tin of spinach !

[smedly]

we also have Beta variant spreading up from southern Thailand which appears to be just as bad if not worse than Delta

 

I wonder what comes next

[Bkk Brian]

3 minutes ago, smedly said:

we also have Beta variant spreading up from southern Thailand which appears to be just as bad if not worse than Delta

 

I wonder what comes next

Next up is the "Delta Plus" variant.................

 

‘Delta plus’: India declares new COVID-19 variant to be of concern

 

The ministry said Delta plus showed increased transmissibility and advised states to increase testing.

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/7971273/covid-variant-delta-plus-india/

[berrec]

A bit like the annual normal influenza virus that mutates.

 

Why would you not expect COVID to not have the same characteristics.

 

IMHO we will have to learn to live with COVID variants like we do with annual influenza.

[dinsdale]

He predicts it after the rest of the world has stated it to be the case. Ah Thailand. Always To Be Number One but never quite makes there.

[mtls2005]

8 minutes ago, berrec said:

IMHO we will have to learn to live with COVID variants like we do with annual influenza.

 

 

With flu shots, right?

 

 

No need to be humble when stating the obvious end-goal. How that helps us now is questionable.

[smedly]

27 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Next up is the "Delta Plus" variant.................

 

‘Delta plus’: India declares new COVID-19 variant to be of concern

 

The ministry said Delta plus showed increased transmissibility and advised states to increase testing.

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/7971273/covid-variant-delta-plus-india/

OMG

[smedly]

10 minutes ago, berrec said:

A bit like the annual normal influenza virus that mutates.

 

Why would you not expect COVID to not have the same characteristics.

 

IMHO we will have to learn to live with COVID variants like we do with annual influenza.

never once in my life have I been concerned about the Flu 

[rabas]

16 minutes ago, berrec said:

A bit like the annual normal influenza virus that mutates.

 

Why would you not expect COVID to not have the same characteristics.

 

IMHO we will have to learn to live with COVID variants like we do with annual influenza.

 

Not much like a flu yet. Seasonal flu does not mutate several times a year sending wave after deadly wave around the world. They are seasonal and much  milder. Then SARS and SARS2 attack your ACE2 receptors, normal viruses don't do that.

 

Eventually, we have no choice but to learn how to live with it.

 

[smedly]

I wonder how the numbers are going to look today 

[Excel]

4 minutes ago, smedly said:

I wonder how the numbers are going to look today 

The crystal ball is as we speak is starting to clear. But perhaps as interesting will be the Chonburi figures

[clivebaxter]

15 minutes ago, smedly said:

I wonder how the numbers are going to look today 

which ones?

Infections

tests done

vaccines produced

vaccinated persons

lies told

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

To cope more efficiently with the variants, Dr. Yong stressed the need for the development of a second generation of vaccines

Send the memo to Prayut he might place an order at Siam Bioscience to get ready this time around.

[hotchilli]

40 minutes ago, smedly said:

I wonder how the numbers are going to look today 

2,500-4,000 with 25-ish deaths.

Same as it's been for the last 2 months every day.

Amazing Thailand.

[DrJack54]

Today 3174 new case. 

[jacko45k]

Just now, DrJack54 said:

Today 3174 new case. 

Sad but I find something positive in that!

[NCC1701A]

Everything so far has just been a drill for what is to come in the next 12 months. 

 

Get the field hospitals ready again as Thais because sick and die off in mass without any vaccines.  

 

Oh and get ready to open Phuket. 

[FarFlungFalang]

An article in BP saying all critical care beds in state run hospitals in Bangkok are now fully occupied.This doesn't bode well.

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, FarFlungFalang said:

An article in BP saying all critical care beds in state run hospitals in Bangkok are now fully occupied.This doesn't bode well.

Yea saw that, and 51 deaths today

[mtls2005]

1 hour ago, smedly said:

I wonder how the numbers are going to look today 

 

23 June: 3,174 - 51 dead 

[mrfill]

4 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

The UK has been lucky in that the vaccine program has been rolled out far enough that the Indian variant wont effect us as much as it did India. 

 

if the Indian variant gets in Thailand in mass now before further vaccine roll out - or even with a 3% efficacy vaccine first jab - the mess will like Brutus being pumped after Popeye had eaten his tin of spinach !

Brutus was one of the murderers of Julius Caesar.

I think you're after Bluto

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, rabas said:

 

Not much like a flu yet. Seasonal flu does not mutate several times a year sending wave after deadly wave around the world. They are seasonal and much  milder. Then SARS and SARS2 attack your ACE2 receptors, normal viruses don't do that.

 

Eventually, we have no choice but to learn how to live with it.

 

Like the flu we have no choice but to learn to live with it as it is in Thailand the death rate of covid is currently similar to the flu here in 2005.

[poskat]

allow me to be the first to warn of the epsilon variant that should be emerging just in time for the festive season

[Excel]

2 minutes ago, poskat said:

allow me to be the first to warn of the epsilon variant that should be emerging just in time for the festive season

Could that be the one that will spread person to person as a result of kissing under the mistletoe or Santa with his infected sack ?????????

[placeholder]

52 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Like the flu we have no choice but to learn to live with it as it is in Thailand the death rate of covid is currently similar to the flu here in 2005.

But the flu is nowhere nearly as contagious.

[sawadee1947]

6 hours ago, smedly said:

I wonder how the numbers are going to look today 

Better ask: how the numbers should be today? 

Or do you believe the reported cases gives a real picture of infected people in Thailand? 

The less you test the less you'll find. 

Easy as that. Fact ????

[bluedoc]

7 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

 

The ministry said Delta plus showed increased transmissibility and advised states to increase testing

Increased testing ????????????????????

[smedly]

1 hour ago, sawadee1947 said:

Better ask: how the numbers should be today? 

Or do you believe the reported cases gives a real picture of infected people in Thailand? 

The less you test the less you'll find. 

Easy as that. Fact ????

fully aware of that and have been saying it for over a year 

 

it is not in their interests to disclose the true infection spread but it is in the interests of the people to know

 

Not sure what their daily testing capacity limit is but I don't think it is much betond 15k a day 

 

The first thing the UK did last year was ramp up testing capacity reaching a level of 1 million tests a day 

 

I posed a hypothetical question on here a couple of weeks ago 

 

If Thailand tested every single person in the country tomorrow - how many infected would they find and if they did the same for antibody tests how many would be positive already having been infected - now that would be interesting and very useful