50 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

The deaths figure in particular is clearly a temporary pause. The numbers in icu and on ventilators continues to rise, so there will be bad news to come in the days ahead on deaths.

 

cases? Who knows. The testing picture is so confused right now that the number can be whatever anyone wants it to be.

Can you provide a link to those icu and ventilator numbers?

Got PCR fit to fly test yesterday, Monday, morning from Bumrungrad. 4700 baht if anyone cares. GF said she saw three people come in and ask for (free I suppose) tests and were turned away. Very professional hard copy results-"not detected"-picked up at 7pm. They even printed a separate page in Japanese to be presented in Tokyo when I change planes. Destination SFO, early flight Thursday. When I booked the flight June 27 things were not this bad here. It's been like something from a novel, the waiting and the final stages. Be safe everyone. I hope I can return in December, but am not very hopeful.

9 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

First shots are certainly outpacing second shots.

Assuming that all the people who are actually at any meaningful risk of Covid (those 70+ and/or w/ severe underlying) are fully vaccinated, maximizing first shots in gen pop at the expense of delayed second shots is actually the right call.

4 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

The crematorium at Wat Khaenok in Nonthaburi Province caught fire due to overuse. Recently they have been cremating 4-5 bodies every day. The temple had to stop using it to do repairs which could cost them millions of baht to repair

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1414767771284504578

 

Wow, wonder if the Sangha council will front money

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

Can you provide a link to those icu and ventilator numbers?

This was up  till yesterday:

 

The number of people in ICU and on VENTILATORS continues to rise every day:

4 July: 2,147/616

5 July: 2,199/603

6 July: 2,350/643

7 July: 2,496/676

8 July: 2,564/698

9 July: 2,685/701

10 July: 2,738/717

11 July: 2,783/728

12 July: 2,895/747 <— Today

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1414460807937622017

 

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

8,685 more infections & 56 more deaths. Only 3,797 recovered so nearly 5,000 more patients to care for. How long the system can take 4,000 to 5,000 additional patients per day before collapsing?

 

https://twitter.com/PravitR/status/1414750829689532437

 

Some Covid infected have been told to stay home and wait for beds to become available for a while now. My niece-in-law and her husband were infected and has just recovered a couple of days ago. While he got a hospital bed after a week, she never did.

54 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

But Germany is doing it, and Now the WHO's poster child for handling Covid, Thailand, is on the verge if mixing Sinovac and AZ. Tell me they are aware the WHO does not approve....

Well, to be fair, Germany, Canada, Spain, etc are doing it in the case of people whose first inoculation was AZ. So they are allowing them to get a second inoculation via an mRNA vaccine. That said, there's evidence now that using 2 different vaccines is very effective. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01359-3

1 hour ago, RandolphGB said:

So cases have leveled off, despite the warnings from the doom mongers yesterday  that it was because of a delay from the weekend.

 

That's just wonderful. We can all relax and take the kids on holiday.

9 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Can you provide a link to those icu and ventilator numbers?

“Early  post in this thread. I guess google would provide official numbers. There’s a graphic from official sources in this thread but I don’t read Thai so can’t read the legends.”
 

“Because of the rapid rise in new COVID cases in Thailand, the country as of Monday was still reporting new record high levels of COVID cases hospitalized (90,578), the share of those in critical condition (2,895), and the share of those requiring ventilators to breathe (747).

 

As of Monday, Thailand's population of hospitalized COVID patients in critical condition had increased daily for 23 days in a row. The share of those requiring ventilators to breathe had increased for seven days in a row.”

Very long queue outside the Thupatemi Stadium in Pathum Thani's Lam Luk Ka district for free #COVID19 swab tests. 500 out of 1,500 tests to be conducted today will be of the Rapid Antigen method. All the 1,500 slots were fully booked up by 9am this morning. #Thailand

https://twitter.com/ThaiPBSWorld/status/1414780060175802375

1 minute ago, anchadian said:

Very long queue outside the Thupatemi Stadium in Pathum Thani's Lam Luk Ka district for free #COVID19 swab tests. 500 out of 1,500 tests to be conducted today will be of the Rapid Antigen method. All the 1,500 slots were fully booked up by 9am this morning. #Thailand

https://twitter.com/ThaiPBSWorld/status/1414780060175802375

Crazy times we live in when testing is limited instead of being open for all.....

17 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

 

“Early  post in this thread. I guess google would provide official numbers. There’s a graphic from official sources in this thread but I don’t read Thai so can’t read the legends.”
 

“Because of the rapid rise in new COVID cases in Thailand, the country as of Monday was still reporting new record high levels of COVID cases hospitalized (90,578), the share of those in critical condition (2,895), and the share of those requiring ventilators to breathe (747).

 

As of Monday, Thailand's population of hospitalized COVID patients in critical condition had increased daily for 23 days in a row. The share of those requiring ventilators to breathe had increased for seven days in a row.”

It seems so unfair that I'm actually required to read the articles in order to acquire information from them.

Majority of over 50 cases of fake news being probed pertain to Covid

 

“In June, the government started encouraging people to work from home and avoid travelling in order to contain the virus from spreading. It was also a period when more fake news emerged, as people were spending more time on the internet and social media,” he said.

 

“Of over 50 cases of fake news that the police are pursuing legal actions, more than 30 are related to Covid-19.”

 

The latest example of these fake news is a claim that the government was hiking import tax on Moderna vaccine to more than 100 per cent. The Customs Department has already clarified that the information was not true.

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40003173

 

12 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Crazy times we live in when testing is limited instead of being open for all.....

Why get tested if you have been practicing social distancing, mask wearing, and have no symptoms?  

Also, you can be tested, then on your way out you touch something that one of the other 1499 people touched and one of them has Covid and you contract it... Why take that risk. 

1 hour ago, brewsterbudgen said:

 

Is the decline in the death count anything to be positive about?  I had assumed death rates would rise, reflecting the increase in infection rates 2-3 weeks earlier.  Do you think we can expect to see the fatality rate continue to decline, or is it just blip, and rates will rise again, due to the very high number of infections in recent days?

With a 3 week lag deaths are almost certain to rise in the coming weeks.

Back in the relatively low vaccination days in the UK, infection peaked at about 60K and deaths at 9K, mortality being about 15% of infection.

On a pro rata basis we should be expecting deaths to be around 150/day in a couple of weeks. Obviously many are expecting that figure to be a lot higher but only time will tell.

3 minutes ago, placeholder said:

It seems so unfair that I'm actually required to read the articles in order to acquire information from them.

No need for that here.. Its all summarised with action required by inhouse TVF advisors.  You know itmakes sense! 

Here's a little anecdote that could be a totally isolated incident, or could suggest the real number of infections is considerably higher.

 

I know of a company where the boss came down with Covid and is now in Bumrungrad undergoing treatment. The boss failed to inform the staff of the infection. The boss, when already feeling ill, held several face-to-face meetings with both staff and customers.

 

A number of the staff have become ill (don't know anything about customers being sick or not), but since they don't know of the boss' diagnosis, nor even that the boss is in Bumrungrad, the ill are attributing it to last week's rain.

 

Perhaps some of the sick are just suffering from last week's rain, but they fear now (informed well after the fact) getting tested lest they are forced to go to a field hospital.

 

Obviously the boss was woefully irresponsible. The various shutdowns and their effects on business has put the boss in a bad financial situation, not wanting to risk additional loss by being absent or forced to shut everything as a new 'cluster'. That, of course, is no excuse.

 

The boss, diagnosed with Covid, is in the stats. None of the now-sick staff, having not been tested, is in the stats.

 

Isolated or a common occurrence? Each of us will decide based on our biases.

The home use of antigen self-test kit for Covid is now approved in Thailand, the Royal Gazette announced. The health ministry said these kits should be available to buy at drug stores by next week.

https://twitter.com/ThaiEnquirer/status/1414785818858688513

 

5 minutes ago, Skallywag said:

Why get tested if you have been practicing social distancing, mask wearing, and have no symptoms?  

Also, you can be tested, then on your way out you touch something that one of the other 1499 people touched and one of them has Covid and you contract it... Why take that risk. 

Two words, test, trace.

It took Japan just two weeks to deliver the 1.05 million doses of vaccines to Thailand following Tokyo’s pledge to donate the shots

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/op-ed-japan-helps-thailand-to-better-fight-covid-19/

They are managing the numbers again AND not testing enough.

 

There are probably multiple times the number of daily new cases.

1 hour ago, wensiensheng said:

Is it nit picking to call into question the whole basis on which your comment is based?

 

sounds kind of fundamental to me.

I get it that you like to debate on the internet. But you are adding to the noise here.

 

everyone knows that the official numbers are not accurate, but they do have some significance. After all, if the official numbers double over a week or so, people here and in the Real World.

 

Therefore, understanding the movement of the Official Numbers has some value.

 

As an example, until recently, the number of hospital walk-in admissions was predictive of future near term case numbers.

 

Now the official numbers are telling us that hospitals are nearing absolute capacity.

 

If you have something useful to add to the analysis of the official numbers, or have some other dataset that is useful, please contribute.

12 minutes ago, Fex Bluse said:

They are managing the numbers again AND not testing enough.

 

There are probably multiple times the number of daily new cases.

Technically, they aren’t cases unless they test positive. And, it’s true in virtually every country that there are massive numbers of undetected infecteds.

 

Your contention is that the numbers are being managed. Apart from the oft repeated statement that there isn’t enough testing, how are the numbers being managed?

6 minutes ago, anchadian said:

It took Japan just two weeks to deliver the 1.05 million doses of vaccines to Thailand following Tokyo’s pledge to donate the shots

Yes, very good, just put them there  for now... I will get to the paperwork when I can, and put it on the next guys desk. Oh, look at the time already, time to head home.

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

Somehow, the rumor got started that the tallies for monday and tuesday were affected by the weekend. If you actually go back and look at the graph and tally up  the various days of the week you'll see that this is not the case.

That was mostly me.

 

The tallies were low due to low hospitalization numbers.

New measures must be working. We've passed the peak .

4 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Technically, they aren’t cases unless they test positive. And, it’s true in virtually every country that there are massive numbers of undetected cases.

 

Your contention is that the numbers are being managed. Apart from the oft repeated statement that there isn’t enough testing, how are the numbers being managed?

I suspect the Thai government is deliberately underreporting the numbers to be below neighbors like Malaysia and also so as not to cause panic with 10K+ numbers.

21 minutes ago, anchadian said:

The home use of antigen self-test kit for Covid is now approved in Thailand, the Royal Gazette announced. The health ministry said these kits should be available to buy at drug stores by next week.

https://twitter.com/ThaiEnquirer/status/1414785818858688513

 

Are these the same kits that have been available on Lazada for around 700 baht?

2 minutes ago, Fex Bluse said:

I suspect the Thai government is deliberately underreporting the numbers to be below neighbors like Malaysia and also so as not to cause panic with 10K+ numbers.

Apart from insufficient testing, how are the numbers being underreported?

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

Begs the question, why the hell had a doctor on the frontline not been vaccinated?

Interesting. Didn't think asthma or allergies procludes someone from being vaccinated against covid-19.

 

“Phicheat or Dr Neung was never vaccinated as he has chronic diseases: allergy and asthma,” said Dr Naresrit Khatthasima, chief of the Samut Sakhon public health office.

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40003169

 

"People with asthma, including people with severe asthma, should feel confident about accessing these vaccines alongside other Australians."

https://asthma.org.au/covid-19-vaccine-and-asthma/

 

Being a natural born sceptic I wonder if what we are being told now about this doctor is true regarding not being vaccinated to suit the Sinovac agenda. It's all a misunderstanding is something we often hear from this so-called government. As you say @Bkk Brianwhy wasn't he vaccinated?  Or maybe he was.