Phuket local infections over seven days tops 200

[webfact]

Image: PPHO

 

By The Phuket News

 

PHUKET: The Phuket Provincial Public Health Office (PPHO) marked 35 new local COVID-19 infections on the island yesterday (July 30), bringing the total number of people recognised as infected with COVID-19 in Phuket since Apr 3 to 1,108.

 

The 35 new local infections bring the total number of new local infections on the island in the past seven days to 209, as follows:

 

July 24 - 11 new cases

July 25 - 28 new cases

July 26 - 23 new cases

July 27 - 38 new cases

July 28 - 24 new cases

July 29 - 50 new cases

July 30 - 35 new cases

 

Full story: https://www.thephuketnews.com/phuket-local-infections-over-seven-days-tops-200-80875.php

 

-- © Copyright Phuket News 2021-07-31

 

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[Robs5ct]

does the sandbox come to a stop now ? lol

 

[Scrotobike]

Is 200 more than 90 in Thai?

 

[pkrv]

4 minutes ago, Scrotobike said:

Is 200 more than 90 in Thai?

 

No you always skim off over half, so things are still AOK for making the $$$!

[Scrotobike]

1 minute ago, pkrv said:

No you always skim off over half, so things are still AOK for making the $$$!

AHA: 200-skim = 90

I assume skim is a variable not a constant

Lovely algebra

 

[skatewash]

One of the metrics monitored for the Phuket Sandbox, number of new infections in a calendar week has exceeded 90 so they are making modifications in Phuket.  This doesn't trigger the automatic end of the Phuket Sandbox and no one ever said it would.  It does recognize where the new infections have been coming from and attempts to reduce that vector.  It leaves international arrivals alone because they have not been the cause of the increase in infections.

 

[kimamey]

1 hour ago, skatewash said:

One of the metrics monitored for the Phuket Sandbox, number of new infections in a calendar week has exceeded 90 so they are making modifications in Phuket.  This doesn't trigger the automatic end of the Phuket Sandbox and no one ever said it would.  It does recognize where the new infections have been coming from and attempts to reduce that vector.  It leaves international arrivals alone because they have not been the cause of the increase in infections.

 

It's good that they're doing it now but they might have avoided a lot of problems if they'd realised this might happen. 

[skatewash]

12 minutes ago, kimamey said:

It's good that they're doing it now but they might have avoided a lot of problems if they'd realised this might happen. 

Yes, it was a point of contention from the beginning.  Some wanted to seal off Phuket to help insure the success of the Sandbox and protect Phuket.  Some recognized that it's politically problematic to prevent Thai citizens from traveling to a part of their own country, not to mention not wanting to forego domestic tourism income.  So there was a compromise.  Now the pendulum is swinging toward sealing off Phuket.  It's not so much that people didn't foresee this problem it's that the people who did were not in a position to  solely determine the Sandbox rules.

[mtls2005]

Time to redefine "a week".

 

Again.

 

 

[skatewash]

9 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

Time to redefine "a week".

 

Again.

 

 

The week was defined to be the standard Thai calendar week, Sunday to Saturday.  That some people wanted to calculate a 7-day moving average is not really something that can be blamed on the original plan.

[mtls2005]

6 minutes ago, skatewash said:

That some people wanted to calculate a 7-day moving average is not really something that can be blamed on the original plan.

 

Well I'm not blaming anybody or anything.

 

So what is the criteria now?

 

Today's total, added to the previous six days total? (I'm guessing.)

 

And until you hit 13 new cases, for 7 days, the total will remain above 90. The current trend is not favorable.

 

Might be better to stop testing, or raise the threshold of 90 to something much larger than 209.

 

 

 

 

[Rhacsyn]

7 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

 

Well I'm not blaming anybody or anything.

 

So what is the criteria now?

 

Today's total, added to the previous six days total? (I'm guessing.)

 

And until you hit 13 new cases, for 7 days, the total will remain above 90. The current trend is not favorable.

 

Might be better to stop testing, or raise the threshold of 90 to something much larger than 209.

 

 

 

 

To be honest I am not sure what the 90 refers to in the original proposal. If it is total infections on the island, then yes, the threshold has been passed and subsequently, as per the proposal, a review and adjustment in Phuket has been made.

[skatewash]

13 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

 

Well I'm not blaming anybody or anything.

 

So what is the criteria now?

 

Today's total, added to the previous six days total? (I'm guessing.)

 

And until you hit 13 new cases, for 7 days, the total will remain above 90. The current trend is not favorable.

 

Might be better to stop testing, or raise the threshold of 90 to something much larger than 209.

 

 

 

 

Again, the metric is a calendar week.  You wait until Sunday, add up all the new cases from the previous Sunday through Saturday.  If that number is greater than 90 than you assess the situation to see if it can be ameliorated.  That's exactly what they have done.  They have tightened domestic access to the island which was where the increase in infections was coming from.  They have left the Sandbox arrivals alone because they were not the source of the increase in infections.

[LivinLOS]

52 minutes ago, skatewash said:

The week was defined to be the standard Thai calendar week, Sunday to Saturday.  That some people wanted to calculate a 7-day moving average is not really something that can be blamed on the original plan.

Not they did thurs to thurs week.. because of july 1st.. 1 -7, 8- 15, etc

[AMFWolfie]

4 hours ago, Robs5ct said:

does the sandbox come to a stop now ? lol

 

Been told it all comes to a stop in 7 days but nothing on here or in local news so will see how accurate "sources" are. Never really understood how it could work for any length of time with only a small percentage of the islanders vaccinated for such a short time. If, as the government said they would do and vaccinate the 70,000 islanders starting back in February so all would have had both doses by 1st July, it stood a really good chance of working especially as everyone going to Phuket had to be double dosed AND a negative PCR test, there was little risk of Covid getting in and out of control which it obviously has. As it turns out they let in people from Pattaya and surrounding areas with no vaccinations as well as "workers" from outside also not vaccinated and probably not tested!! Greed simply took over again and now its failed miserably

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, Robs5ct said:

does the sandbox come to a stop now ? lol

 

No, they vow it will continue... just as it will in Samui.

[Cake Monster]

19 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

No, they vow it will continue... just as it will in Samui.

The Authorities have no intention of closing the Sandbox down.

They never have, and they never will

Too much face to be lost, so they will bumble on blindly, with their mistruths, dishonesty, and downright betrayal of the people in order to keep up the appearances of a successful project. 

However, the truth is in plain sight for all to see, and the Authorities fool only themselves.

[Rhacsyn]

39 minutes ago, AMFWolfie said:

Been told it all comes to a stop in 7 days but nothing on here or in local news so will see how accurate "sources" are. Never really understood how it could work for any length of time with only a small percentage of the islanders vaccinated for such a short time. If, as the government said they would do and vaccinate the 70,000 islanders starting back in February so all would have had both doses by 1st July, it stood a really good chance of working especially as everyone going to Phuket had to be double dosed AND a negative PCR test, there was little risk of Covid getting in and out of control which it obviously has. As it turns out they let in people from Pattaya and surrounding areas with no vaccinations as well as "workers" from outside also not vaccinated and probably not tested!! Greed simply took over again and now its failed miserably

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40004009

 

Today's announcement from the Phuket governor stating that the sandbox will continue irrespective of additional screening for Covid-19

[it is what it is]

7 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

The Authorities have no intention of closing the Sandbox down.

They never have, and they never will

Too much face to be lost, so they will bumble on blindly, with their mistruths, dishonesty, and downright betrayal of the people in order to keep up the appearances of a successful project. 

However, the truth is in plain sight for all to see, and the Authorities fool only themselves.

 

they wont need to close it down, it will continue to exist, in name only, unless the situation improves as the number of 'tourists' will gradually reduce to a dribble, leaving only those looking for a reason to return to thailand to live or work making use of the scheme.

[ChipButty]

Would be interesting to see if advance booking are slowing down in Phuket

Edited July 31, 2021 by ChipButty

[Pedrogaz]

Is this a good result or a poor result.....what number of infections was anticipated. Numbers with no context have no meaning.

[Robs5ct]

1 hour ago, Rhacsyn said:

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40004009

 

Today's announcement from the Phuket governor stating that the sandbox will continue irrespective of additional screening for Covid-19

I don't care if they continue or stop the sandbox model. 

But what I learned is if Phuket and TAT officials say if something will happen we will do that .... then it's just a fake statement. At the end of the day their statements are worth nothing.

 

[Espanol]

10 hours ago, ChipButty said:

Would be interesting to see if advance booking are slowing down in Phuket

If you have a look to list of booked nights in Phuket for july, august and september, you will see no new reservations now.

 

Last list was 119,892 room nights booked for July; 9,745 for August; and 1,094 for September but there probably is an updated one.

 

If you divide total number of nights by 11 nights average on each reservation, you get 10,900 in July, 886 in August and 99 in September.

 

New tourists, if coming, are waiting for last minute to book.

 

[oldcpu]

11 hours ago, Espanol said:

Last list was 119,892 room nights booked for July; 9,745 for August; and 1,094 for September but there probably is an updated one.

 

If you divide total number of nights by 11 nights average on each reservation, you get 10,900 in July, 886 in August and 99 in September.

An interesting statistic, and not surprising IMHO.   

 

Not surprise because this is the low season in Phuket, and its during a major global pandemic, and pandemic cases in Thailand (including Phuket) are rising.

 

I do wonder if the demographic(?)/motivation of the international travelers is a factor?   Sometimes I speculate a large % could be a mix of Thai & foreigner who are not 'tourists' per se, but rather had strong family or residency reasons for wanting to return to Thailand, and the 'Phuket sandbox' opened up that opportunity to come to Thailand. 

 

However now that the travelers are in Phuket, with the pandemic now hitting all of Thailand (including Phuket) it may make any travel outside of Phuket by that demographic (the demographic that I 'speculated') somewhat difficult, I think.   Hopefully they all find a good way forward.

 

Edited August 1, 2021 by oldcpu

[Rhacsyn]

11 hours ago, Espanol said:

If you have a look to list of booked nights in Phuket for july, august and september, you will see no new reservations now.

 

Last list was 119,892 room nights booked for July; 9,745 for August; and 1,094 for September but there probably is an updated one.

 

If you divide total number of nights by 11 nights average on each reservation, you get 10,900 in July, 886 in August and 99 in September.

 

New tourists, if coming, are waiting for last minute to book.

 

It was reported yesterday (628 arrivals) that bookings for August are down 5%.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thethaiger.com/news/national/phuket-reservations-slow-down-for-august/amp

[Espanol]

Updated list as of July 31st:

 

192,403 room nights had been booked for July, 98,735 rooms nights were for August, and 7,720 room nights were for September.

 

That means 17,491 bookings in July, 8976 in August and 702 in September.