Baht could sink even further, analyst warns

[scubascuba3]

Almost in free fall now the last week, I'm not buying for a while, use what I have first

[Smithson]

18 hours ago, Falang in Thailand said:

Thailand has over 240 billion usd in Foreign exchange reserves  which it can use  gradually in small amounts  to stimulate the economy , back in 1997 it had only 25 billion USD  so couldnt interfere in the market which led to the Thai Baht depreciate to 50 baht   , i am not saying in the short term  Baht will not depreciate further maybe 34 to max 35 , however dont bet on a huge depreciation .

As I understand it, foreign exchange reserves can't be used to stimulate economy, they are not part of the budget, hence the term 'reserve'.

 

Also, if I'm not mistaken, the Baht was kept at 25 to the US$ for years by the government pegging it to the dollar and using reserves to maintain that position. The Baht was never devalued, it was un-pegged (floated), as the country hard run out of reserves. The fact that everyone know they would eventually float didn't help much.

[placeholder]

4 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

As I have stated before, to summarize:

 

There are countless things the government could be doing, if they wanted to attract the high quality tourists. First they need to figure out a way to attract tourism, WITHOUT quarantine. That is fairly simple. A very reliable lab based test in the home nation, with test results before you board the plane. Then a simple antigen test at the airport. It takes 15 minutes for results. Sure, Thailand would have to invest in the test kits. Some general would have to be willing to part with a few million dollars. Each test itself, only cost $5 with the new Abbott test, which is available now. And accepting only tourists who have been double vaccinated at home, with good vaccines. So far, there have been a minimal number of sandbox tourists who have been found infected. It is mostly Thai transmission, everyone needs to worry about here. 

Then they could get on to reform. Sacrifices need to be made. I do not hear ANY discussion about what sacrifices Thailand is willing to make, to get the tourists, and that multi trillion baht cash cow back. The very first thing would be to repeal the anti foreign wine bill, that was passed by a few very corrupt senators way back when, to protect an anemic local wine industry. They are losing billions of dollars a year in revenue, that would be had from a 100% wine duty, instead of 365%. The five star hotels would have major wine events, and the entire industry would flourish here.

Thailand keeps droning on and on and on, about how they want wealthy tourists. Again, what sacrifices are you willing to make? Rich tourists like to spend money when they travel. And they cannot do that here, as they do not like getting taken for a ride. Most wealthy people are smart with their money. Thailand could be making a fortune on a 25% luxury tax, instead of the 100% of more, which discourages most people from buying. How many people do you see in the luxury stores here? They are almost always completely empty. Inane. Beyond inane.

 

And talk to us about the sacrifices you fools are willing to make, to get tourism back. It is not magic. You will not open your doors and have millions pouring in again. Get that? When you kick an animal that is already ill enough times, it eventually dies. Your industry is dying. You have sabotaged it to no end. And this started long before Covid, so stop with the excuses. Real men take responsibility for their mistakes. Punks, juveniles, and men with undeveloped emotional natures refuse to take responsibility for anything, and it makes them look like more of a fool.

 

If a tourist wanted to venture to an island destination, they are all devastated by this shutdown. Was recently in Samui. 85% of the hotels were closed. Most restaurants, alot of bars, shops and other businesses were closed many permanently. Granted, there are some great hotel bargains right now. But, that environment is fairly depressing, seeing so much hardship. So, the lame authorities here need to wrap their minds around that. Tourists would be coming to a hugely diminished destination. Free quarantine? Might be a good place to start. Make some sacrifices, you incompetents. These issues and problems were becoming apparent long before Covid. And none were being addressed. That is part of my point. Tourism had been declining for years already. The numbers were up. But the quality of tourist was way down. And according to everyone I spoke to last year, the year before and the year before that, income was way, way down. So, "this blame it all on Covid scenario" is somewhat disengenuous. Sure, Covid is huge. And the drop now is stunning. But, my point is there were plenty of issues prior to Covid. And are any of them being addressed? Quantity over quality is never a good thing, unless you are selling one dollar items at a swap meet. It just lowers the quality of the experience for all.
 

And before the pandemic 40 million tourists came here despite those issues. Why wouldn't they come back once this is in the rearview mirror?

[Pattaya Spotter]

This works out well for me as there's a big wad of dollars I've wanted to move into Thailand for some time and now may be the opportune time to do it.

[spidermike007]

32 minutes ago, placeholder said:

And before the pandemic 40 million tourists came here despite those issues. Why wouldn't they come back once this is in the rearview mirror?

At least a dozen very good reasons, which I have stated repeatedly on previous posts. In addition to the major sabotage inflicted upon the industry in the past 18 months. Have you been to the islands? It is like an apocalyptic vision right now. So many businesses have been crippled, and they will not re-open as they spent their life savings trying to keep their business alive, and unlike in many other countries, where the government actually cares, they got little to no assistance. 

 

Tourism will come back. But, it will be a pale shadow of what it was before. The industry has been permanently damaged. Perhaps even sabotaged. 

[Golden Triangle]

56 minutes ago, placeholder said:

And before the pandemic 40 million tourists came here despite those issues. Why wouldn't they come back once this is in the rearview mirror?

And just how long until this is in the rearview mirror ? It ain't gonna be this year or next year that's for sure.

[rott]

On 8/5/2021 at 8:21 AM, mikecha said:

They loose all  or the whole family has to pay this back  later 

put on the street  take the car   ruthless these days 

 

our first  day 1 policy here  no dept  no money lending No financing    just pay cash  or transfer  within your means 

 

then never loose anything  

 

 

 but  Thai  people like dept  show new car

show

new this that  never understand this 

 

 

loose is when your trousers are a size too big. Just saying. 

[placeholder]

15 minutes ago, Golden Triangle said:

And just how long until this is in the rearview mirror ? It ain't gonna be this year or next year that's for sure.

That depends on how quickly thailand gets its citizens sufficiently vaccinated or that a simple and highly effective treatment for Covid is found or devised. Keep in mind that I was responding to a clearly baseless claim that Thailand's tourism sector is ruined forever. 

[rott]

7 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

These analysts are pathetic. Who are they anyway? Of course the baht will fall further. They need high paid people to tell them that? 

 

Nearly everything that is coming from these bank analysts is looking more and more inaccurate, more like guesswork, and less like professional, good quality forecasting every day. Of course the baht will fall more. Nothing will be normal next year, or the year after. Thailand is now heading towards an economic catastrophe that will make 1997 look mild. And it will last a half decade or longer. There is a high chance of a major depression here, and nobody knows how high unemployment is, if you take into account the cash economy. 40%? More? And the goons who are saying the economy will only grow by 1% this year are lost in space. Contract by 8% maybe. And then you have the "exports are way up" crowd chiming in. Alot of fake news out there, no doubt alot of it is administration supported subterfuge, disinformation, and just plain lies. 

 

And when you consider that tourism made up a full 20% of the economy, or 110,000,000,000,000 baht that is alot of cash that is gone, baby gone, and not returning anytime soon. I do not think it will ever return. I predict after 5 years, the tourism industry will be 15% of what it was before, or 5 million arrivals, at most. Too much sabotage. Too much punishment. Too much destruction. Too little support. Too long a shutdown. 

I think you're a bit over the top sm but I like to hear it and think well it could be true. 

Not wishing economic catastrophe on anybody but a substantially weaker baht would be a welcome change. 

Edited August 6, 2021 by rott

[placeholder]

I think the reason that the Thai govt has lowered the limit is very clear: it doesn't want people parking their money in Thai banks. That drives up the value of the baht.

[Golden Triangle]

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

That depends on how quickly thailand gets its citizens sufficiently vaccinated or that a simple and highly effective treatment for Covid is found or devised. Keep in mind that I was responding to a clearly baseless claim that Thailand's tourism sector is ruined forever. 

I personally don't see spidermike007's post as baseless, a slight stretch of a fertile imagination maybe, however, there are more than a multitude of businesses that have gone belly up & this virus isn't finished with us yet, the figures get worse day by day, everyday more people are chucked onto the scrapheap of life through no fault of their own. 

 

No one wants to see this country suffer, but the current leadership ( or lack of ) have inflicted this on their countrymen & women but profess to love them & want to help them, well they could have done that by banning interprovincial travel back in April for Songkran, or preventing their political mates going to dodgy nightclubs in Thonglor, buying quality vaccines, not some Sino rubbish that they were all getting a backhander from CP everytime they ordered a few million jabs, not proven but highly suspected by a very large majority of people.

 

So although I would love to share your optimism I'm afraid I can't, and as the news today and everyday proves, humans are a very selfish animal, many think that the rules don't apply to them, that this is just a flu, and while that mindset exists this pandemic will continue unabated, I don't want to have an argument or disagreement with you, I generally agree with a lot of what you say, I'm just calling it as I see it, I haven't really been out of the house since minor surgery on Feb 17th, I could do with a change of scenery, I might get that next week when I get my first AZ vaccine ???? 

[placeholder]

9 minutes ago, Golden Triangle said:

I personally don't see spidermike007's post as baseless, a slight stretch of a fertile imagination maybe, however, there are more than a multitude of businesses that have gone belly up & this virus isn't finished with us yet, the figures get worse day by day, everyday more people are chucked onto the scrapheap of life through no fault of their own. 

 

No one wants to see this country suffer, but the current leadership ( or lack of ) have inflicted this on their countrymen & women but profess to love them & want to help them, well they could have done that by banning interprovincial travel back in April for Songkran, or preventing their political mates going to dodgy nightclubs in Thonglor, buying quality vaccines, not some Sino rubbish that they were all getting a backhander from CP everytime they ordered a few million jabs, not proven but highly suspected by a very large majority of people.

 

So although I would love to share your optimism I'm afraid I can't, and as the news today and everyday proves, humans are a very selfish animal, many think that the rules don't apply to them, that this is just a flu, and while that mindset exists this pandemic will continue unabated, I don't want to have an argument or disagreement with you, I generally agree with a lot of what you say, I'm just calling it as I see it, I haven't really been out of the house since minor surgery on Feb 17th, I could do with a change of scenery, I might get that next week when I get my first AZ vaccine ???? 

What has any of this got to do with the future of the tourism industry in Thailand? Especially SpiderMike's dire predictions for it?

[Advocate]

24 minutes ago, placeholder said:

What has any of this got to do with the future of the tourism industry in Thailand? Especially SpiderMike's dire predictions for it?

SpiderMike and his ilk are captives of the British pension system and they keep dreaming that some magic event or process will rescue them by making the GBP soar against other currencies. Unfortunately for SpiderMike history suggests that the GBP will not rise because there is no evident reason for it to do so.

 

The reason the Thai Baht has fallen is because the Thai government and business leaders wants it to fall.

 

The GBP has been consistently and continuously falling against the Thai Baht since 1995 and UK productivity growth has flatlined since 2005. Nothing that is happening in the UK is likely to change that. In fact, the UK has probably lost many multiples more of GDP from tourism than Thailand has.

 

Perhaps the UK needs its army of dreamers in Thailand to return and fix the UK.

 

 

[Golden Triangle]

30 minutes ago, Advocate said:

SpiderMike and his ilk are captives of the British pension system and they keep dreaming that some magic event or process will rescue them by making the GBP soar against other currencies. Unfortunately for SpiderMike history suggests that the GBP will not rise because there is no evident reason for it to do so.

 

The reason the Thai Baht has fallen is because the Thai government and business leaders wants it to fall.

 

The GBP has been consistently and continuously falling against the Thai Baht since 1995 and UK productivity growth has flatlined since 2005. Nothing that is happening in the UK is likely to change that. In fact, the UK has probably lost many multiples more of GDP from tourism than Thailand has.

 

Perhaps the UK needs its army of dreamers in Thailand to return and fix the UK.

You have seen spidermike007's signature line, 0 for your observation skills, crawl back into your hole.

30 minutes ago, Advocate said:

 

 

Wrong on so many fronts

Edited August 6, 2021 by Golden Triangle

[Golden Triangle]

33 minutes ago, Advocate said:

SpiderMike and his ilk are captives of the British pension system and they keep dreaming that some magic event or process will rescue them by making the GBP soar against other currencies. Unfortunately for SpiderMike history suggests that the GBP will not rise because there is no evident reason for it to do so.

 

The reason the Thai Baht has fallen is because the Thai government and business leaders wants it to fall.

 

The GBP has been consistently and continuously falling against the Thai Baht since 1995 and UK productivity growth has flatlined since 2005. Nothing that is happening in the UK is likely to change that. In fact, the UK has probably lost many multiples more of GDP from tourism than Thailand has.

 

Perhaps the UK needs its army of dreamers in Thailand to return and fix the UK.

 

 

Wow, a whole 279 posts, go man go. ????

[Golden Triangle]

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

What has any of this got to do with the future of the tourism industry in Thailand? Especially SpiderMike's dire predictions for it?

So you think it's gonna be rock & roll time just after Christmas ? Really, come on, don't be daft, anyone can see that tourism is cattle trucked, you'll be lucky to any significant arrivals before Christmas 2022. I always thought you had a balanced outlook, how wrong can someone be.

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, Golden Triangle said:

So you think it's gonna be rock & roll time just after Christmas ? Really, come on, don't be daft, anyone can see that tourism is cattle trucked, you'll be lucky to any significant arrivals before Christmas 2022. I always thought you had a balanced outlook, how wrong can someone be.

You should read the original comment I was replying to. The poster claimed that tourism in Thailand was finished and done for. I clearly stated that it depends on vaccination or possibly a simple and effective treatment..  I gave no timetable for that. I don't expect vaccination to be sufficiently accomplished to rescue high season 2021-2022. Maybe by low season 2022.

[Advocate]

6 hours ago, Golden Triangle said:

You have seen spidermike007's signature line, 0 for your observation skills, crawl back into your hole.

Wrong on so many fronts

Have you appointed yourself SpiderMike's spokesperson?

 

Is there any evidence that SpiderMike's signature line is true, or that it is even relevant to the matters under debate?

 

This debate is about the fall of the Baht and where it is headed. Most of the people complaining about the GBP/Baht rate are UK expats living on GBP pension payments while the Baht appreciated considerably against the GBP over the period 2005-2019 falling from 75 to 40 Baht/GBP in that period.

[Johnny English]

Best news in years

[bert bloggs]

4 hours ago, Advocate said:

Have you appointed yourself SpiderMike's spokesperson?

 

Is there any evidence that SpiderMike's signature line is true, or that it is even relevant to the matters under debate?

 

This debate is about the fall of the Baht and where it is headed. Most of the people complaining about the GBP/Baht rate are UK expats living on GBP pension payments while the Baht appreciated considerably against the GBP over the period 2005-2019 falling from 75 to 40 Baht/GBP in that period.

What evidance do you have that most expats are UK pensoners living on a UK pension? I have quite a few British friends and not one of them relies on just the UK pension.

 

Edited August 7, 2021 by bert bloggs

[Advocate]

53 minutes ago, bert bloggs said:

What evidance do you have that most expats are UK pensoners living on a UK pension? I have quite a few British friends and not one of them relies on just the UK pension.

 

There you go changing the scope of the argument again "not one of them relies on just the UK pension".

[spidermike007]

16 hours ago, rott said:

I think you're a bit over the top sm but I like to hear it and think well it could be true. 

Not wishing economic catastrophe on anybody but a substantially weaker baht would be a welcome change. 

Well, it might be a rather interesting twist of fate. Many of us feel the government deliberately allowed the cat out of the bag, so to speak, to prevent the protests from swelling. No doubt there would be millions on the street right now, if it were not for Covid, and the ensuing laws that prevent the gatherings now. How very convenient. How ironic would it be, if the same actions, or should we say lack of actions, are what brought this administration down, due to a collapsed economy. 

 

I agree, I do not like seeing the Thai people in pain. However they were already in pain two years ago. On so many levels, as the goon leadership has been moving the nation backwards for quite some time. Sometimes pain is required to bring about change and growth. 

[wasabi]

The country's economy is collapsing under the weight of their failed vaccine rollout. Recovery is a long ways off and the Baht should be falling much faster to reflect this.

[theoldgit]

1 hour ago, bert bloggs said:

What evidance do you have that most expats are UK pensoners living on a UK pension? I have quite a few British friends and not one of them relies on just the UK pension.

 

I, on the other hand, know a few that are surviving on just their UK State Pension, and really struggling, whilst having to use an "agent" to circumnavigate the financial requirement to extend their stay, which in turn add to their woes. 

[Mac Mickmanus]

1 hour ago, bert bloggs said:

What evidance do you have that most expats are UK pensoners living on a UK pension? I have quite a few British friends and not one of them relies on just the UK pension.

 

Although your "quite a few friends" is hardly conclusive, is it ?

[jacko45k]

3 hours ago, bert bloggs said:

What evidance do you have that most expats are UK pensoners living on a UK pension? I have quite a few British friends and not one of them relies on just the UK pension.

 

He did not say necessarily a single UK pension, but used the plural payments. Many I know have multiple pensions, the State one and one from some employment they held for many years.

[sandyf]

On 8/5/2021 at 11:52 AM, Boomer6969 said:

Indeed.

You would have to show me where i said refuse collection had improved, most of that is redundant landlines.

I live out in the sticks and had fiber before my son that lives in a fairly large UK city, but then quite difficult to see what is going on from a bar stool.

[spidermike007]

10 hours ago, placeholder said:

You should read the original comment I was replying to. The poster claimed that tourism in Thailand was finished and done for. I clearly stated that it depends on vaccination or possibly a simple and effective treatment..  I gave no timetable for that. I don't expect vaccination to be sufficiently accomplished to rescue high season 2021-2022. Maybe by low season 2022.

You have a consistent habit of under estimating the amount of damage done here, and over estimating the capability of the leadership here. 

 

I would suspect 80% in the tourism sector would disagree with you. 

 

Thailand was facing horrendous tourism issues long before Covid came along. Numbers were up, yet revenue was way, way down. The lower to lower middle income earners from China, India and Malaysia was never going to be a solution. Simply a bandaid applied by inept and incapable men. 

 

And even with the tourism break, no effort is being made on any level to address the pre-Covid issues. None. Nunca. Nada. Zero. 

 

One might have hoped the authorities would gain some humility and perspective from all this. It appears they are a very inferior human subset, and are not capable of learning adapting or improving. 

 

Woe is Thailand. 

Edited August 7, 2021 by spidermike007

[Albert Zweistein]

On 8/5/2021 at 2:34 AM, kg1947 said:

agreed  USD = 40.00   and   CAD = 30.00  sounds just about right  .....

not sure about EUR ....  GBP = 50.00  

my opinion  DMK ( Deutsche Mark ) might return after ReValuation , also Italian LIRA ,

Greek DRACHMA  ....  

Soon only gold will be accepted for payment or bartertrade, 1 pig for 100 chicken.

[Mac Mickmanus]

Just now, spidermike007 said:

I would suspect 80% in the tourism sector would disagree with you. 

 

Thailand was facing horrendous tourism issues long before Covid came along. Numbers were up, yet revenue was way, way down. The lower to lower middle income earners from China, India and Malaysia was never going to be a solution. Simply a bandaid applied by inept and incapable men. 

 

And even with the tourism break, no effort is being made on any level to address the pre-Covid issues. None. Nunca. Nada. Zero. 

 

One might have hoped the authorities would gain some humility and perspective from all this. It appears they are a very inferior human subset, and are not capable of learning adapting or improving. 

 

Woe is Thailand. 

Were those tourist arrival figures reliable ?

Every year for the past 7 or so years , you could see a noticeable decline in the tourist numbers .

   The high season used to be from September to March and that changed to having a high season in December and January and yet the stated tourist figures increased every year (by record numbers) .

   Could it be possible that the tourist figures were not accurate ?