U.S. Housing Prices Explosion Making Repatriation a Less Realistic Option for Many?

[Jingthing]

1 hour ago, cmarshall said:

It's only a problem if one accepts the bedrock American attitude that membership in the middle class absolutely requires a house and a car.  I myself would rather put my head in a bucket of varnish that own either one.   While US home ownership reached a high of 67% by 2005, just before the bubble burst, home ownership in wealthy Germany as recently as 2017 was only 51%.  The Germans have never been as gaga about owing a house as Americans.

 

Home ownership in the US has been an important way to accumulate wealth, but that is mostly needed during one's working years.  For most of us, once we have retired it is more important to reduce risk than to seek additional gains since we have more to lose.  Ownership entails risks and costs.  

 

 

I might agree with you but you're ignoring the massively high rents in the U.S. in most anywhere it would be tolerable to live.

[cmarshall]

19 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

I might agree with you but you're ignoring the massively high rents in the U.S. in most anywhere it would be tolerable to live.

Rents are a problem and the government should give more tax advantages to renters since currently all such advantages go to homeowners.  But buying a house is not a very useful solution to high rents.  Seems worse to me.

[cmarshall]

2 hours ago, tonray said:

Never mind the drug dealers and gang activity....because that's what you'll have in those neighborhoods. Crime rates thru the roof and just a miserable existence. Not safe for aging expats for sure

Only in the fevered imaginations of the right-wingers is US crime through any roof.

 

 

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/crime-rate-statistics

[Jeffr2]

5 hours ago, cmarshall said:

It's only a problem if one accepts the bedrock American attitude that membership in the middle class absolutely requires a house and a car.  I myself would rather put my head in a bucket of varnish that own either one.   While US home ownership reached a high of 67% by 2005, just before the bubble burst, home ownership in wealthy Germany as recently as 2017 was only 51%.  The Germans have never been as gaga about owing a house as Americans.

 

Home ownership in the US has been an important way to accumulate wealth, but that is mostly needed during one's working years.  For most of us, once we have retired it is more important to reduce risk than to seek additional gains since we have more to lose.  Ownership entails risks and costs.  

 

 

I guess you missed the part about rising rents? A problem you don't have to worry about if you own. As for risk? There's pretty much none if you don't plan to sell.

[Jingthing]

26 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

I guess you missed the part about rising rents? A problem you don't have to worry about if you own. As for risk? There's pretty much none if you don't plan to sell.

Sure.

But a significant percentage of expats especially retired ones in Thailand sold their U.S. home if they owned one long ago. The topic is about feasibility of repatriation. Obviously many people that thought it was feasible before will be up <deleted>t's crik if they go home now. No not everyone. But definitely lots of people. 

[Jeffr2]

7 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Sure.

But a significant percentage of expats especially retired ones in Thailand sold their U.S. home if they owned one long ago. The topic is about feasibility of repatriation. Obviously many people that thought it was feasible before will be up <deleted>t's crik if they go home now. No not everyone. But definitely lots of people. 

110% agreed!

[Bohemianfish]

If we sold here in the USA and bought in Thailand, which is probable, it would be a concern to move back to the area we presently live in (Seattle area). A lot of compromises. Prices are nuts now.

[HeijoshinCool]

.

 

Two real examples:

 

1) friend in San Fransisco had a dumpy house in ratty condition. Appraised last month at $525k. Insane, but wait, there's more.....

 

She put it on the market for $595k. Within one hour (no exaggeration) a Blackstone, Inc rep called her on the phone and offered her $685k, sight unseen. 

 

2) the 2bdrm/2bthrm house I rented in Florida in a 55+ community (Florida has traditionally had much lower prices than elsewhere), sold for $86k in 2017. In April of this year it sold for $149k. The buyers were from NY, and only asked that the agent do a walk around video, and even bypassed an inspection as others were bidding.

 

In the same development, houses that rented for $1100, are now rented in one day for $1600 and up.

 

This will not pan out good......

 

 

 

 

[gargamon]

52 minutes ago, Bohemianfish said:

If we sold here in the USA and bought in Thailand, which is probable, it would be a concern to move back to the area we presently live in (Seattle area). A lot of compromises. Prices are nuts now.

Don't sell in the US. Rent it out so it's there if you want to return.

Don't buy in Thailand. Rent. 

 

This doesn't work, obviously, if you've already sold. And the "perfect" house/condo  you would have bought in Thailand won't be quite so appealing in 10 or 15 years.

[Jeffr2]

24 minutes ago, gargamon said:

Don't sell in the US. Rent it out so it's there if you want to return.

Don't buy in Thailand. Rent. 

 

This doesn't work, obviously, if you've already sold. And the "perfect" house/condo  you would have bought in Thailand won't be quite so appealing in 10 or 15 years.

I've been in my Thai house for almost years. No rent. No landlord. Can do what I want. Love it! But zip price appreciation.  Sadly!

[cmarshall]

It has always been the case that once you have retired you are no longer getting a salary that might be keeping pace with inflation, even the low inflation rates that the US has seen since the 80's.  That is just a fact of retired life.  SS has a COLA, but it isn't really enough and anyway SS is only designed to replace 40% of the worker's working life income at best.  Moving to a low cost of living area such as Thailand is a smart move, but it was always going to get harder and harder to return to the States as the cumulative effects of inflation put our old locations ever more out of reach.  The current housing bubble in the US just exacerbates the problem.

 

Meanwhile the rent we are paying now in the CBD of Bangkok is lower than what we were paying ten years ago for an apartment that was not nearly as nice as our current unit.  And it's looking like SS will get a 5% to 6% increase in next month's announcement.  So, high inflation in the US doesn't really pose a problem for us.

[GinBoy2]

On 9/11/2021 at 7:14 PM, tonray said:

Never mind the drug dealers and gang activity....because that's what you'll have in those neighborhoods. Crime rates thru the roof and just a miserable existence. Not safe for aging expats for sure

If you just need a place to live, there are thousands of small towns that you can live really cheaply. It may be a one horse town, but i'll be pretty much crime free ( let's excuse running the one stop sign in town) and generally folks are just down to earth.

 

Now maybe you won't have a Starbucks, but there will be a bar, general store and equally you aren't going to get shot by some gangbanger

[tonray]

14 minutes ago, GinBoy2 said:

If you just need a place to live, there are thousands of small towns that you can live really cheaply. It may be a one horse town, but i'll be pretty much crime free ( let's excuse running the one stop sign in town) and generally folks are just down to earth.

 

Now maybe you won't have a Starbucks, but there will be a bar, general store and equally you aren't going to get shot by some gangbanger

Have a good trip. Let us know how it works out

[GinBoy2]

9 hours ago, tonray said:

Have a good trip. Let us know how it works out

You make mountains outta molehills.

 

We have two homes one in Thailand one in the USA, neither in some crime infested hellhole which you like to imply.

 

All I was trying say, in response to the OP was that, Yes housing has gone through the roof, but in a huge country there are still places, maybe not ideal, but affordable where you can live a decent life at low cost.

 

There is a member on here who recently moved back to WY who I'm in contact with.

 

Decent place, very cheap and he's happy.

 

You don't need to hate one to love the other.

 

I like both our homes but for different reasons, but the idea that it's impossible to return to the US under any circumstances, I'd dispute that.

[GinBoy2]

On 9/12/2021 at 12:59 AM, Jingthing said:

Sure.

But a significant percentage of expats especially retired ones in Thailand sold their U.S. home if they owned one long ago. The topic is about feasibility of repatriation. Obviously many people that thought it was feasible before will be up <deleted>t's crik if they go home now. No not everyone. But definitely lots of people. 

Well maybe this is a ship that has sailed for many, but maybe a lesson for the newbies.

 

Never ever burn bridges with home. At the end of the day you are nothing but a long stay tourist in Thailand with little to no rights.

 

Make a good life for yourself in Thailand but always have a backup plan if things go south.

I'll never understood those who sell up everything at home and go all in.

 

Keep your house in the US, rent it out that'll give you the income to survive in Thailand and it's the ultimate bolthole if things go tits up, which lets face it is not uncommon for aging expats

[newnative]

12 hours ago, GinBoy2 said:

You make mountains outta molehills.

 

We have two homes one in Thailand one in the USA, neither in some crime infested hellhole which you like to imply.

 

All I was trying say, in response to the OP was that, Yes housing has gone through the roof, but in a huge country there are still places, maybe not ideal, but affordable where you can live a decent life at low cost.

 

There is a member on here who recently moved back to WY who I'm in contact with.

 

Decent place, very cheap and he's happy.

 

You don't need to hate one to love the other.

 

I like both our homes but for different reasons, but the idea that it's impossible to return to the US under any circumstances, I'd dispute that.

      I agree.  I used to live in Reston, Virginia, a 'new town' in northern Virginia outside of DC.  Very pricey area of the US.  In 2009 I sold a 1 bedroom condo at Reston Town Center, one of the priciest parts of the town, for $247,000.  Willow tells me it is now worth around 260,000, although a condo just sold last month in the same project for 269,000.  So, figure a price increase of around $22,000 in those years.   Yes, the price went up but I wouldn't call it skyrocketing.  I could return to Reston and afford to buy a condo there, though not a large, single family home like I have now in Pattaya.

     When I lived in Reston I thought I might retire somewhere like Myrtle Beach, SC.  Checked Realtor.com and I could buy a 2 bedroom/2 bath condo in what look like nice projects for around $150,000.  Some were listed in the $130,000s.   That was just a quick look, likely others for less.  Again, affordable and a 1 bedroom would be cheaper.  There likely are places that prices may be skyrocketing but there are plenty of others where the values are going up more normally.  

[Jingthing]

1 hour ago, GinBoy2 said:

Well maybe this is a ship that has sailed for many, but maybe a lesson for the newbies.

 

Never ever burn bridges with home. At the end of the day you are nothing but a long stay tourist in Thailand with little to no rights.

 

Make a good life for yourself in Thailand but always have a backup plan if things go south.

I'll never understood those who sell up everything at home and go all in.

 

Keep your house in the US, rent it out that'll give you the income to survive in Thailand and it's the ultimate bolthole if things go tits up, which lets face it is not uncommon for aging expats

You forget that there are more than two opinions. Thailand and the U.S. are not the only two countries in the world last time I checked.

[EVENKEEL]

For most the thought of going back to the US after years in Thailand can be daunting. Unfortunately the OP gave no income parameters of himself of an example.

 

If you were to return to US with say $1500/mo SS and nothing else, well your options are dearly limited. With a bit of money you can buy an old travel trailer in an RV park. Space rent I've seen near a beach in Fla for $350/mo. Some may laugh at this but not such a bad option.

 

I've been a home owner most my life, with 2 rentals in Ca, but if I were to return not really wild about staying there. I checked out rentals in Florida. Nice 1 br with extras for $800/mo $1200 will get something way nice location. Renting a room in a nice house is an option for living in a nice zip code on limited funds.

 

For an expat returning to the US with thoughts of buying a house, well good idea if you have a wad of savings. Property tax in Florida is near 2%, with I'm sure insane insurance premiums I'm sure it will cost $1000 or more monthly just for that.

 

 

[Jeffr2]

5 hours ago, newnative said:

      I agree.  I used to live in Reston, Virginia, a 'new town' in northern Virginia outside of DC.  Very pricey area of the US.  In 2009 I sold a 1 bedroom condo at Reston Town Center, one of the priciest parts of the town, for $247,000.  Willow tells me it is now worth around 260,000, although a condo just sold last month in the same project for 269,000.  So, figure a price increase of around $22,000 in those years.   Yes, the price went up but I wouldn't call it skyrocketing.  I could return to Reston and afford to buy a condo there, though not a large, single family home like I have now in Pattaya.

     When I lived in Reston I thought I might retire somewhere like Myrtle Beach, SC.  Checked Realtor.com and I could buy a 2 bedroom/2 bath condo in what look like nice projects for around $150,000.  Some were listed in the $130,000s.   That was just a quick look, likely others for less.  Again, affordable and a 1 bedroom would be cheaper.  There likely are places that prices may be skyrocketing but there are plenty of others where the values are going up more normally.  

My friends bought a house in Seattle 5 years ago for 300k. It's worth 550k now. Houses are selling like hotcakes. Literally.

 

Same is true in Colorado. Was just there recently and the increases make your eyes water!

[GinBoy2]

4 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

My friends bought a house in Seattle 5 years ago for 300k. It's worth 550k now. Houses are selling like hotcakes. Literally.

 

Same is true in Colorado. Was just there recently and the increases make your eyes water!

I know nothing about the Seattle market, but Denver I do.

 

My eldest daughter and my Thai son both live there.

My son and his girlfriend have been trying to buy something for months and it's damn hard. They are down to the point where they are thinking about moving up to Fort Collins just to be able to start somewhere

[Jingthing]

The 30k house I grew up in just sold for a cool million. I really can't go home again!

[GinBoy2]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

The 30k house I grew up in just sold for a cool million. I really can't go home again!

Let's put this into some sort of perspective

 

The red hot markets tend to be where job growth is going through the roof, Coastal California, NE Coast, Denver, NW, TX etc.

 

But for a retiree you aren't looking for somewhere with hot job possibilities.

 

That's where the likes of Wyoming come into play.

 

As I mentioned earlier a guy from this group moved to Wyoming, Gillette to be precise.

The average house price is $278K, so obviously there are homes way below that, in a smallish city, but pretty nice with an airport and decent infrastructure.

 

So you really can't have a one brush approach to this.

 

It's a little but like saying all of Thailand looks like the downtown Sukhumvit housing market!

[Jeffr2]

2 hours ago, GinBoy2 said:

I know nothing about the Seattle market, but Denver I do.

 

My eldest daughter and my Thai son both live there.

My son and his girlfriend have been trying to buy something for months and it's damn hard. They are down to the point where they are thinking about moving up to Fort Collins just to be able to start somewhere

Forgot Fort Collins. It's worse than Denver. I was just there for a few weeks. Crazy!

 

Denver has more affordable housing.

[GinBoy2]

2 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Forgot Fort Collins. It's worse than Denver. I was just there for a few weeks. Crazy!

 

Denver has more affordable housing.

Not sure about that.

 

My daughter lives in City Park and our son lives in RINO. They would both like to buy something in City Park, but it's super expensive.

 

My son and his girlfriend are ready to start a family, so they wanna move out of the apartment world of RINO. 

 

Fort Collins ain't cheap, but equally it's not Denver, or worst still Boulder, which I must admit, I've contemplated cashing out my rentals and buying something there.

 

Fort Collins is turning into a Denver commute hub. Yep it's getting pricey, but we were looking at what they could afford for a young family, better than Denver, and you suck it up and do the I-25 commute.

 

After that you're pushing it up to Cheyenne, which is very affordable but a commute too far for most into Denver.

 

But as a retiree, Cheyanne ain't a bad choice either

[Jeffr2]

23 minutes ago, GinBoy2 said:

Not sure about that.

 

My daughter lives in City Park and our son lives in RINO. They would both like to buy something in City Park, but it's super expensive.

 

My son and his girlfriend are ready to start a family, so they wanna move out of the apartment world of RINO. 

 

Fort Collins ain't cheap, but equally it's not Denver, or worst still Boulder, which I must admit, I've contemplated cashing out my rentals and buying something there.

 

Fort Collins is turning into a Denver commute hub. Yep it's getting pricey, but we were looking at what they could afford for a young family, better than Denver, and you suck it up and do the I-25 commute.

 

After that you're pushing it up to Cheyenne, which is very affordable but a commute too far for most into Denver.

 

But as a retiree, Cheyanne ain't a bad choice either

I lived in Denver in the early 80s. Returned for the first time this past summer. WOW! What a change.

 

As you say, it's becoming one big suburb from Cheyenne to Colorado Springs. Sad!

 

My friend lives downtown Fort Collins. The prices there are stunning for what you get.

[GinBoy2]

13 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

I lived in Denver in the early 80s. Returned for the first time this past summer. WOW! What a change.

 

As you say, it's becoming one big suburb from Cheyenne to Colorado Springs. Sad!

 

My friend lives downtown Fort Collins. The prices there are stunning for what you get.

Thing is I could live in The Springs, Boulder, parts of Denver, Breck, Vail, all of them fantastic places.

 

it's just could I justify the price?

 

We live in the Black Hills of South Dakota. Driving distance to Denver, equally stunning landscape at a fraction of the price.

 

Every time we go to Boulder my wife and I have this battle over whether we should move there. It's fabulous, but 4x expensive from where we live

[Jeffr2]

5 minutes ago, GinBoy2 said:

Thing is I could live in The Springs, Boulder, parts of Denver, Breck, Vail, all of them fantastic places.

 

it's just could I justify the price?

 

We live in the Black Hills of South Dakota. Driving distance to Denver, equally stunning landscape at a fraction of the price.

 

Every time we go to Boulder my wife and I have this battle over whether we should move there. It's fabulous, but 4x expensive from where we live

And the traffic is insane now in Boulder. As well all up and down the front range.

 

I'm sure that the black hills are beautiful. Lucky you!

[GinBoy2]

3 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

And the traffic is insane now in Boulder. As well all up and down the front range.

 

I'm sure that the black hills are beautiful. Lucky you!

Hmm, traffic don't miss any of that.

 

I lived in San Diego for years, where when you looked at Google maps the traffic algorithm would show red when traffic was backed up for 10 miles.

 

Here in Rapid City, 5 cars stopped at a red light is enough to generate a red on google traffic maps!

 

No, i'm happy with South Dakota traffic 'backup's'

[frantick]

1 hour ago, GinBoy2 said:

Hmm, traffic don't miss any of that.

 

I lived in San Diego for years, where when you looked at Google maps the traffic algorithm would show red when traffic was backed up for 10 miles.

 

Here in Rapid City, 5 cars stopped at a red light is enough to generate a red on google traffic maps!

 

No, i'm happy with South Dakota traffic 'backup's'

Now that you can't drag race on 8th Street (aka Mt. Rushmore Rd)!

Used to be bumper to bumper on Friday and Saturday nights in the 60's and 70's.

[Jeffr2]

2 hours ago, GinBoy2 said:

Hmm, traffic don't miss any of that.

 

I lived in San Diego for years, where when you looked at Google maps the traffic algorithm would show red when traffic was backed up for 10 miles.

 

Here in Rapid City, 5 cars stopped at a red light is enough to generate a red on google traffic maps!

 

No, i'm happy with South Dakota traffic 'backup's'

I lived in Carlsbad from '88 until about 2000. Loved it but heard that the traffic is insane in north county now. Ugh.

 

That's where I want to be.  5 cars at a red light!  55555