Opinion: Thailand has to gradually stop worrying about new infection numbers

[webfact]

 

By Thai Enquirer

 

A few days ago, the parents of my daughter’s friend asked me if the number of cases Thailand was seeing was actually much higher than those we see on the news every morning. They had heard from some doctor friends that the rate of infection was being under reported by the ministry and by the government.

 

The truth of the matter is that we will never know the exact number of people who get infected because the government’s policy isn’t designed to do the so. The vast majority of new cases that we report are those who have come in for testing. Acting case finding is next to nothing and we don’t have a policy or the money in place to do mass testing around the country.

 

And people need to know that there is nothing wrong with that. There is nothing wrong with that because our vaccination program is now fully underway and we are doing quite well in that regard despite earlier hiccups.

 

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-- © Copyright Thai Enquirer 2021-10-11

 

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[metisdead]

An off topic post has been removed.

[RotBenz8888]

Gradually stop worry? It's already forgotten. I went to a Central mall yesterday, AIS had a promotion with Iphones... do I need to describe the stampede? 

[TooMuchTime]

Pretty much.  Going by how they count daily cases Thailand has a death rate of around 1%.  Considering they are under reporting the case count the death rate would logically be much less than 1%.  We all know the most vulnerable (sick, elderly) are the ones to succumb to covid.

 

Time to open up fully as everyone already half ass everything on BTS/MRT and malls.  Drop the facade already, people are just going with the motions for the sake of it.

[placeholder]

23 minutes ago, TooMuchTime said:

Pretty much.  Going by how they count daily cases Thailand has a death rate of around 1%.  Considering they are under reporting the case count the death rate would logically be much less than 1%.  We all know the most vulnerable (sick, elderly) are the ones to succumb to covid.

 

Time to open up fully as everyone already half ass everything on BTS/MRT and malls.  Drop the facade already, people are just going with the motions for the sake of it.

Your assertion takes no account of excess mortality. Thailand hasn't exactly been forthcoming with that figure.

And then there's this article in thaivisa.com

As the following link shows, Thailand will have about 39% fully vaccinated by Nov 1. As the experience of every other nation shows, this is not nearly high enough to stop the rise of covid cases.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/thailand?view=vaccinations&tab=trend

[Pattaya Spotter]

Thailand has to gradually stop worrying about new infection numbers

 

Been saying this for almost a year.

[ALLSEEINGEYE]

New infections should not be the main focus. The virus isn't going away.

 

Focus on the number of seriously ill hospitalized people and the daily death rate. If the daily death rate can get down low, and stay low, then people can go about their lives.

 

Get vaccinated make it mandatory let's get on with life.

[placeholder]

31 minutes ago, ALLSEEINGEYE said:

New infections should not be the main focus. The virus isn't going away.

 

Focus on the number of seriously ill hospitalized people and the daily death rate. If the daily death rate can get down low, and stay low, then people can go about their lives.

 

Get vaccinated make it mandatory let's get on with life.

As we've seen in countries around the world the crucial numbers are deaths and hospitalizations. Deaths especially since even hospitalizations can vary defending on whether rationing of care has been applied. That's why denialists consistently cite cases or infections because those statistics don't take separate account of deaths and hospitalizations. And case statistics are subject to the level of testing. So, obviously, a country like Singapore that mandates a high percentage of employer tests and sends out testing kits to its residents is going to show much higher levels of cases, than say, a country like Thailand.

[metisdead]

Off topic posts and replies about the Covid infection rates in Florida and Texas have been removed.

 

A post bringing a sponsor of the forum into the discussion has been removed"

 

25) No public discussion is allowed with regard to other forum members, as well as to advertisements or sponsors, or methods of blocking advertisements.

[XJPSX]

The numbers are falling exactly as Prayuth predicted 2 months ago.

He is the only leader in the world who has successfully forecasted when his numbers will fall and was even brave enough to say they would be less then 10k by 1st November. Just incredible!

How does he do that? 

[chrisandsu]

Or be like Australia . Have a few cases and the whole country becomes a prison . What are they living on ? Fresh air ? People need to make a living 

[chrisandsu]

33 minutes ago, XJPSX said:

The numbers are falling exactly as Prayuth predicted 2 months ago.

He is the only leader in the world who has successfully forecasted when his numbers will fall and was even brave enough to say they would be less then 10k by 1st November. Just incredible!

How does he do that? 

He borrowed the TAT forecast analysis? 

[placeholder]

13 hours ago, TooMuchTime said:

Pretty much.  Going by how they count daily cases Thailand has a death rate of around 1%.  Considering they are under reporting the case count the death rate would logically be much less than 1%.  We all know the most vulnerable (sick, elderly) are the ones to succumb to covid.

 

Time to open up fully as everyone already half ass everything on BTS/MRT and malls.  Drop the facade already, people are just going with the motions for the sake of it.

Do you think it might just be possible that they're underreporting mortality as well? And given the low vaccination rate in most of the country, why would the outcome of opening up fully be different from what it's been in other countries?. It's not like we don't have examples of the consequences of that in other countries.

[gk10012001]

I agree. I say just open things up and let things run their course.  Mandating tourists arriving being vaccinated while most of the country is not vaccinated is silly.  So many more Thais than tourists.  Those at risk and that are obese, have diabetes, etc.  they should take precautions.  Other than that,  just treat it like a bad flu season and get on with things. Dragging things out just delays the inevitable and in the end you end up with the same over all results.  My opine.  To each their own

[gk10012001]

5 minutes ago, PureBlood said:

If it wasn't for other countries making a fuss Thailand wouldn't have registered a Covid crisis. As a killer, how does Covid rate in Thailand? There are a dozen, or a couple of dozen, bigger killers.

 

Talking about "case numbers" drives the crisis. Imagine if they started talking about flu, cold, or whatever "case numbers".

 

They are over estimating mortality by bundling all sorts of deaths, some respiratory, some totally unrelated, into the Covid figures.

 

Where are the piles of dead bodies? There is no justification for continuing Covid measures on health grounds.

I can already name the members that are going to blast at you.  A good post

[gk10012001]

2 hours ago, XJPSX said:

The numbers are falling exactly as Prayuth predicted 2 months ago.

He is the only leader in the world who has successfully forecasted when his numbers will fall and was even brave enough to say they would be less then 10k by 1st November. Just incredible!

How does he do that? 

Glancing at my calendar and the worldwide weather patterns, snow and cold in the Northern Hemisphere, generally more comfortable weather arriving soon in much of Thailand, historical high season dates....  hmmm

[Meat Pie 47]

13 hours ago, placeholder said:

Your assertion takes no account of excess mortality. Thailand hasn't exactly been forthcoming with that figure.

And then there's this article in thaivisa.com

As the following link shows, Thailand will have about 39% fully vaccinated by Nov 1. As the experience of every other nation shows, this is not nearly high enough to stop the rise of covid cases.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/thailand?view=vaccinations&tab=trend

Infections are soaring in a country where more than 80 per cent of the population are fully vaccinated. But the numbers tell only half the story.

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/cases-skyrocketing-in-heavily-vaccinated-singapore-as-locals-beg-for-more-freedoms/news-story/140d80c6ea19856c13e1268763066965

[Meat Pie 47]

1 hour ago, chrisandsu said:

Or be like Australia . Have a few cases and the whole country becomes a prison . What are they living on ? Fresh air ? People need to make a living 

Nonsense I live in WA and we never had a lock down we just keep those nasty people from the east out.????

 

 

[Tony125]

 

 

Thailand to end quarantine for some vaccinated visitors from Nov - PM

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/thailand-end-quarantine-vaccinated-visitors-133626766.html

[placeholder]

45 minutes ago, PureBlood said:

If it wasn't for other countries making a fuss Thailand wouldn't have registered a Covid crisis. As a killer, how does Covid rate in Thailand? There are a dozen, or a couple of dozen, bigger killers.

 

Talking about "case numbers" drives the crisis. Imagine if they started talking about flu, cold, or whatever "case numbers".

 

They are over estimating mortality by bundling all sorts of deaths, some respiratory, some totally unrelated, into the Covid figures.

 

Where are the piles of dead bodies? There is no justification for continuing Covid measures on health grounds.

So you're claiming that "flu, cold, or whatever "case numbers" rival those of Covid? I'm sure you wouldn't make that claim without having solid evidence to back that claim. Care to share it with us?

 

"They are over estimating mortality by bundling all sorts of deaths, some respiratory, some totally unrelated, into the Covid figures."

So, you have access to the excess mortality figures for Thailand? Or, rather, the lack of them? Can you share a link to that with us?

[CartagenaWarlock]

4 hours ago, Tony125 said:

Thailand to end quarantine for some vaccinated visitors from Nov - PM

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/thailand-end-quarantine-vaccinated-visitors-133626766.html

After witnessing months of exploding infections and death In Singapore, UK, Israel, and not to mention in the USA, somebody must have realized the Western media's propaganda about vaccine efficacy. 

Edited October 11, 2021 by CartagenaWarlock

[SmartyMarty]

8 hours ago, gk10012001 said:

I agree. I say just open things up and let things run their course.  Mandating tourists arriving being vaccinated while most of the country is not vaccinated is silly.  So many more Thais than tourists.  Those at risk and that are obese, have diabetes, etc.  they should take precautions.  Other than that,  just treat it like a bad flu season and get on with things. Dragging things out just delays the inevitable and in the end you end up with the same over all results.  My opine.  To each their own

If only there was logic, science, empathy or common sense to back up your post. But there isn’t. 

[Dogmatix]

Gradually stop worrying.  When you are dead of COVID already, no need to worry any more. 

[metisdead]

Some off topic posts about increasing numbers of infections in the US have been removed.

[KhaoYai]

On 10/11/2021 at 7:18 AM, ALLSEEINGEYE said:

Focus on the number of seriously ill hospitalized people and the daily death rate. If the daily death rate can get down low, and stay low, then people can go about their lives.

Absolutely! The only 2 figures that matter.  Just about the only thing I ever agreed with Donald Trump on (note to self, wipe your mouth) - the more you test, the more positives you'll find.

[Knocker33]

It's about time the media stopped reporting them every few hours.

 

[Kadilo]

24 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

Absolutely! The only 2 figures that matter.  Just about the only thing I ever agreed with Donald Trump on (note to self, wipe your mouth) - the more you test, the more positives you'll find.

Death rate of 9 people/ million of population over the past week. 
Patients in a serious condition falling along with he numbers on ventilators. 

[Trvlr55]

On 10/11/2021 at 2:18 AM, ALLSEEINGEYE said:

New infections should not be the main focus. The virus isn't going away.

 

Focus on the number of seriously ill hospitalized people and the daily death rate. If the daily death rate can get down low, and stay low, then people can go about their lives.

 

Get vaccinated make it mandatory let's get on with life.

agreed, most people are not going to pay to get a PCR test, especially being that a large amount of people are struggling for money due to the lock downs and restrictions. Sure, if they're really sick many will "some still do not". Then some panic due to the high positive rate; not surprising, as almost anyone getting tested "unless a job requirement", is because they are sick! Who wants those very long swabs jammed up your nose, and the high cost, if you're not really sick. And then to be carted off to a field hospital, if tested positive.

 

The home test kits have a very high rate of false negatives, and false positive, not much better than flipping a coin. PCR test is the only way to really know, and has to be a much larger daily testing pool to even have any idea. Recent article in Bangkok post stated one inaccuracy on the home test kits was people that have the flu will give a false positive... actually I recall they stated it was a "limitation" of the kit, not inaccuracy .

 

most cases are asymptomatic or mild cases, similar to having the flu. No real point in attempting to calculate a death rate %, when the infection rate is completely unknown. Do we worry about asymptomatic of flu or phenomena? Do people die of flu or phenomena?? Yes, more die from these than from covid every year.

 

With the vaccination rate getting better daily, is a good sign.

Restricting travel, and lock-downs did little to nothing, time to move on, and open the economy back up again.

 

[ALLSEEINGEYE]

3 hours ago, Trvlr55 said:

agreed, most people are not going to pay to get a PCR test, especially being that a large amount of people are struggling for money due to the lock downs and restrictions. Sure, if they're really sick many will "some still do not". Then some panic due to the high positive rate; not surprising, as almost anyone getting tested "unless a job requirement", is because they are sick! Who wants those very long swabs jammed up your nose, and the high cost, if you're not really sick. And then to be carted off to a field hospital, if tested positive.

 

The home test kits have a very high rate of false negatives, and false positive, not much better than flipping a coin. PCR test is the only way to really know, and has to be a much larger daily testing pool to even have any idea. Recent article in Bangkok post stated one inaccuracy on the home test kits was people that have the flu will give a false positive... actually I recall they stated it was a "limitation" of the kit, not inaccuracy .

 

most cases are asymptomatic or mild cases, similar to having the flu. No real point in attempting to calculate a death rate %, when the infection rate is completely unknown. Do we worry about asymptomatic of flu or phenomena? Do people die of flu or phenomena?? Yes, more die from these than from covid every year.

 

With the vaccination rate getting better daily, is a good sign.

Restricting travel, and lock-downs did little to nothing, time to move on, and open the economy back up again.

 

I agreed with you right up until you said that more people die from the annual flu than from COVID sorry but that is completely false.

[Trvlr55]

12 hours ago, ALLSEEINGEYE said:

I agreed with you right up until you said that more people die from the annual flu than from COVID sorry but that is completely false.

not really!

https://www.who.int/news/item/13-12-2017-up-to-650-000-people-die-of-respiratory-diseases-linked-to-seasonal-flu-each-year

 

OK. I was only thinking US as I don't track global, and was projecting a bit ahead of it now, but the vaccine was only starting to be marginally available late January this year, and slowing released to more of the US population, vs. the flu where there's always vaccines available.

 

650k vs 719k,

so not really that far off, and this "now that US has 3 very good vaccines available to anyone over 12 and older, is very rapidly falling.

 

also in US due to how insurance and other things, many not really covid deaths are counted. Anyone dies, of anything, and had covid, it's a covid death. Any dies, and they had the flu, not counted the same.