Consider why the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit is being sent from Japan, and not any of the other MEUs currently in the US. Its the only permanently forward deployed MEU. This is because Korea, Taiwan and the South China Sea are places where a crisis could literally erupt in days. The time to deploy a unit from the US takes weeks. But now this unit is going to take a few weeks to redeploy to the Persian Gulf region (to use the official name, not the unofficial name enforced by Saudi Arabia). A crisis could still erupt in Korea, Taiwan and the South China Sea, and arguably the chances of that have risen over the last week. If this was part of careful planning (Hegseth insists that the entire operation is meticulously and perfectly planned), one of the US based MEUs could have started the deployment weeks ago, and relocated their Tiltrotor Squadrons to Saudi Arabia. The MEU being sent consists onsists of a company-sized command element, a battalion landing team, a medium tiltrotor squadron and a combat logistics battalion. Its being reportedly redeployed for contingency reasons (evacuation). But it sounds like a reactionary deployment (unplanned) due to changing facts on the ground, because of the risk it exposes troops in the Pacific theatre to. If there was an invasion of Kharg Island planned, then you could look at Operation Urgent Fury (the invasion of Grenada); a combined air-sea invasion, about 7-9000 marines against a force of maybe 7-800 paramilitaries from Cuba. The technology has changed a little (the Ospreys weren't around then),, but the approach would be similar; sieze the airfield on the Eastern side of the island, to secure against inevitable attempts by the Iranians to reinforce. The planning would also have to include counter-demolitions thinking, in case the Iranians use scorched earth tactics as Iraq tried in 1991 (setting the island ablaze, causing environmental devastation). The range of the Ospreys means they are right at the edge of their range if the unit deployed to the Gulf of Oman or the Red Sea. The battalion landing team have amphibious equipment, with range of a few kms. So, if the MEU is intended to support operations against Kharg, it will have to pass through Hormuz. And the War Department, while boasting it will keep close to its chest details of planning, have announced to the world, the deployment of this very distinctive mini armada. There is no element of surprise. The USS Tripoli will be target Numero Uno, and the Iranians know when its going to arrive, and be prepared. Here's a Trumpian reasoning why Kharg Island. Its nothing to do with securing the objective of regime change. In fact it would be regime protection. In normal times, Kharg would support 90% of Iranian oil exports. Right its doing jack. Iranian oil isn't getting out of the Gulf, and it had few customers (one very large important one). A purpose would be to seize Kharg for the purposes of supervised export. Essentially America would run the island for Iran; maintain, repair the facilities (which are probably mostly American made anyhow). Revenue is escrowed or partially released under agreed conditions. Why would Iran agree to such a thing, rather than launch unlimited and highly motivated waves of suicide bombers at it? Iran knows the US cannot maintain the tempo of air operations against Iran that it has been doing. A read of the headlines shows it will bankrupt the country, deplete military stocks. When Trump refers to unlimited bombs, its unlimited in the same way Russian munitions are unlimited; falling back on 1970s, 1960s, even 1950s stocks stashed in some American desert facility. Under Trump, relationships with the outside world has become transactional. The US is no longer allied with other nations because of shared values, friendship. The US is no longer a friend of Europe or the UK. Maybe it never was. It maintains an alliance because it suits American interests. And similarly, it has no genuine friendship with Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States or indeed Israel (a country that spends less on defence, as a percentage of GDP, than the target set for NATO members.....). Iranian foreign policy is driven by a fear of the Imperialist; it has a recent history of meddling by the Great Powers. It is a neighbour to Arab nations, Arab nations who view their co-religionists with contempt because the Shia hold the heretical view that the Prophet designated his Son-in-law as his successor on earth (its a much deeper schism than Catholics versus Protestants). Throw into the mix a bit of Iranian nationalism, and Persian Empire stuff. This is why the Shah and then the Mullahs wanted the bomb ultimately. It was a big stick to support willy waving. The deal the Americans could offer is to become allies of the Islamic Republic, and become a guarantor for Iranian independance. Ultimately, Trump's America doesn't care what goes on inside Iran. It never cared what went on inside Saudi Arabia. It doesn't really care what goes on inside Israel; all those Kibbutz's are basically communist colonies. Iran could be so much better for American business than the Arabs. Take away their oil, and the Gulf Arabs are nothing more than uneducated Bedu, as Lawrence found. Iran though is actually a proper country, with a proper economy. Yes, it earns a lot from oil, but there is so much going on there. There is a lot more that is in America's interest. In Venezuela, the Americans have effectively installed a vociferously Anti-American Vice-President as President. The Bolivar revolution continues, probably to the disappointment of the opposition (they ain't seeing power anytime soon). When Trump talks about having a candidate in mind as leader of Iran, he's thinking about one of the Mullahs, not that joker Pretender, the Shah, who would last about 10 minutes after arrival before swinging from a handy JCB. And he wouldn't trust an Iranian electorate to vote for anyone; look what happened in Iraq, when you let foreign people have a say. It becomes unpredictable, and you end up with a government who isn't exactly grateful. US does play to type, with a foreign policy that happily supports dictatorships. Precedence: Vietnam. Its still a communist country, with banners everywhere. The same mob who beat the Americans and threw their allies into re-education camps. Across America, you still see POW-MIA flags flying everywhere, because there are still Americans who think 80 year old downed pilots are still being held in some Vietnamese hellhole, and Chuck Norris/Rambo will rescue them. Saigon is still called Ho Chi Minh City, and there are museums showing captured American war trophies, and lurid illustrations of American capitalist war crimes. But US and Communist Vietnam have become best buds, with Vietnam enjoying preferential trading terms. There are people on this forum who probably served during the Vietnam war who are regularly making border runs to Vietnam. On the other hand, Trumpm doesn't know his arse from his elbow, let alone what day of the week it is. The 31st MEU might might deploying to support the primary mission its trained for most recently, humanitarian relief, as the US anticipates things going turbo tits up, as the desalination plants are bombed, and cholera breaks out in the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and the US needs to get its people the <deleted> out of Dodge quick.
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