Omicron panic decimates Thai tourism "high season" - foreign tourists cancel, events scrapped, flights stopped, insurance woes

[jacko45k]

13 hours ago, Cherrytreeview said:

https://www.nationthailand.com/blogs/in-focus/40010576

 

Don't know if old/new news but Bangkok governor closing bars/entertainment until mid January.

I lose track of whats official or unofficial.

Has it not been said that this is simply an extension of a currently existing order, rather than an immediate closure of venues currently allowed to be open?

[Trip Hop]

9 hours ago, candide said:

I am not medical doctor s o I may be wrong, but my layman assumption is that it may take time to produce enough antigens to be detected, as it is an antigen test.

Something along the lines of this but according to him it’s not just the antigens. It’s something to do with Omicron being that in the initial day or so after being infected, even a PCR would fail to detect? The full thread is here and an interesting guy to follow who appears to know his stuff?

 

 

[Saanim]

46 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Has it not been said that this is simply an extension of a currently existing order, rather than an immediate closure of venues currently allowed to be open?

It's quite a different (not so stressful) life in the other Thailand, the other one than the usual tourists areas many falangs prefer to live in...

[thaiman]

4 hours ago, JensenZ said:

Really? In case you didn't know, covid is a worldwide problem, and things are much worse in many other countries. Using covid as an excuse to bash Thailand? Shame on you!

Thailand reaps what it sows!

[Thunglom]

10 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

I guess this needs more explaining to you, try reading the full thread rather than trolling:

you don't seem to understand that you are merely a one quote wonder who is failing to analyse the stats correctly.

[Bkk Brian]

14 minutes ago, Thunglom said:

you don't seem to understand that you are merely a one quote wonder who is failing to analyse the stats correctly.

Really feel free to make a correct analysis on both studies, looki g forward to reading it......

[Thunglom]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Really feel free to make a correct analysis on both studies, looki g forward to reading it......

OK - your figures ae out of date - they change every day - you are concentrating on South Africa as if that is the only place to look at.

In UK yeaterday

Highest deaths since March, admissions to hospitals up 90% and daily infections risen from 40k lat month to 189,000 yesterday.

conclusion the R factor is so high that it is likely to put a strain on any health system.

[Bkk Brian]

12 minutes ago, Thunglom said:

OK - your figures ae out of date - they change every day - you are concentrating on South Africa as if that is the only place to look at.

In UK yeaterday

Highest deaths since March, admissions to hospitals up 90% and daily infections risen from 40k lat month to 189,000 yesterday.

conclusion the R factor is so high that it is likely to put a strain on any health system.

You missed the study from the UK  SAGE that i posted and commented on then. 

 

Keep up

Edited December 31, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[JensenZ]

8 hours ago, thaiman said:

Thailand reaps what it sows!

If you consider this literally, Thailand is the 2nd biggest rice exporter in the world, so they are reaping very well.

[CG1 Blue]

1 hour ago, Thunglom said:

OK - your figures ae out of date - they change every day - you are concentrating on South Africa as if that is the only place to look at.

In UK yeaterday

Highest deaths since March, admissions to hospitals up 90% and daily infections risen from 40k lat month to 189,000 yesterday.

conclusion the R factor is so high that it is likely to put a strain on any health system.

You say "Highest deaths since March"

 

Not true. Always check the details. On 30th Dec they included a lot of unrecorded deaths for the period 24th-30th Dec. In fact: 

 

'Between 24 December 2021 and 30 December 2021, there have been 701 deaths within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test. This shows a decrease of -10.6% compared to the previous 7 days.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/easy_read

[Thunglom]

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

You missed the study from the UK  SAGE that i posted and commented on then. 

 

Keep up

why do you keep calling your old figures "study"?

[Thunglom]

1 hour ago, CG1 Blue said:

You say "Highest deaths since March"

I don't say - BBC, Sky News and the Guardian quoting government figures say - get up to speed - the figures are going up still.

"The UK has reported its highest number of Covid deaths for seven months, as 223 were recorded within 28 days of a positive test for the virus.

The daily death rate, by date reported, has not been as high since 9 March and brought the weekly toll to 911, a near-15% rise on the week."

tWe are meant to be discussing Omiron in Thailand instead you are degrading the discussion be sealioning.

 

Edited December 31, 2021 by Thunglom

[Scott]

Please stay on topic.  

 

[2009]

Well, boo hoo.

[Cherrytreeview]

This doesn't look as if it will help.

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3161714/covid-19-vaccines-sinovac-recipients-may-need-two-booster-shots

 

[CG1 Blue]

1 hour ago, Thunglom said:

I don't say - BBC, Sky News and the Guardian quoting government figures say - get up to speed - the figures are going up still.

"The UK has reported its highest number of Covid deaths for seven months, as 223 were recorded within 28 days of a positive test for the virus.

The daily death rate, by date reported, has not been as high since 9 March and brought the weekly toll to 911, a near-15% rise on the week."

tWe are meant to be discussing Omiron in Thailand instead you are degrading the discussion be sealioning.

 

The relevance here is on the global picture, and because the UK is ahead of he curve compared to most countries (including Thailand), it's useful to know the trend in the UK. The panic in Thailand (and other countries) over Omicron may not be justified. The decimation of tourism in Thailand may be made worse if misinformation is being dished out. 

Number of deaths in the UK is down week on week by 10%:

 

No signs of daily deaths rising

There were 332 deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported on Thursday, but that figure included a backlog of deaths in England that occurred over the Christmas period.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

 

A glimmer of hope for Thailand's crushed economy, fingers crossed. 

 

 

 

[Thunglom]

Thailand needs to look around at other countries. Firstly to learn what might happen, than to see how this will affect the tourism industry.

The 2 main approaches seem to be protect trough vaccination and restrictions as in the UK or “zero Covid” as China has been doing. This involves draconian lockdowns and looks like it will eventually fail.

 

Some people are citing single sets of statistics and trying to claim they show that Covid is “on the ay out”.

For instance they claim that their chosen statistics show that hospitalisation is 1/3 lower with Omicron.

However with the massive increase in actual infections (in UK a jump from 30000 to 190000) this means that hospitalisations are actually rising and this looks like taking an even bigger jump when statistics catch up with the post-Christmas gap. (hospital admission were 2400 on 29th Dec.).

 

Admissions to UK hospitals are already up by 90% on last month.

They are now claiming in UK 2.3 million people have been infected in the last week.

If you have been vaccinated you are 81% less likely to end up in hospital but this still has not prevented this dramatic increase. With such high numbers of cases, rise in hospital admissions are inevitable. Prevention is relying not on people being double vaxxed but on those being boosted as well – 14 million people in UK have not had the booster and it takes 2 weeks for the booster to take effect.

 

On top of having to cope with extra admissions, the UK NHS has to cope with 25000 staff absences – almost twice the norm for this time of year.

Thailand, as a country with only partial vaccination and even fewer boosters they are laying themselves open for a iarge rise in cases. This will result in government lockdowns by province and hugely discourage foreign visitors as well as disrupting the nation's home like and the economy

 

[BusyB]

On 12/29/2021 at 9:40 AM, candide said:

It's obvious that Omicron is less lethal than other variants. However, the curves you show should not be innacurately interpreted. Deaths never happen the day people are infected. There is usually a delay of one or two weeks before people actually die. So you cannot compare the number of infected people at one point of time with the number of deaths at the same.

The effect on deaths of the peak shown on the first figure cannot be assessed before at least 10 days.

Not only that, but even if (as seems likely) the death RATE is lower, the sheer number of infections threatens to cancel out that gain, with a corresponding number of carers off out sick as well ... quite apart from the potential effects on the rest of the economy, which in many countries is already short staffed.

Let's hope this is a hint of an easing of the threat in general but let's be cautious till it's proven. The other way round is simply stupid and potentially deadly.

[bangon04]

On 12/29/2021 at 10:44 AM, geisha said:

 How shameful to see photos and reports all over the western news of queues of people spending all day in the sun waiting for food donations. And all that while in other news they want to start a Space program ? They better get their act together as otherwise they will see their tourist dollars going down the drain for a good couple of years. 

You are wrong to mock the Thai Space Program. In fact the prototype was launched just the other day. 

https://www.facebook.com/watch?v=3088904598018225 

[jacko45k]

8 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

Number of deaths in the UK is down week on week by 10%:

True, but the number of positive tests, in a week, exceeding a million, is nevertheless a concern, as is the hospital admissions rising 50% week on week too. While I remain positive that Omicron is the swan song of Covid, let us not throw people under the bus.

[Oracle2022]

12 hours ago, Thunglom said:

OK - your figures ae out of date - they change every day - you are concentrating on South Africa as if that is the only place to look at.

In UK yeaterday

Highest deaths since March, admissions to hospitals up 90% and daily infections risen from 40k lat month to 189,000 yesterday.

conclusion the R factor is so high that it is likely to put a strain on any health system.

Deaths in Europe are always higher in Winter.............old and weak people die in Winter.

 

Hospital admissions is a complete curve ball..............all hospitals check for Covid when you enter, and if Omicron is everywhere then admissions to hospital will increase rapidly..........but not FOR Covid........ eg going to hospital for a broken leg........you are tested on entry, if you are positive you are a "new hospitalisation for Covid for that day".......even though you are not there because of Covid.

 

Also, do not forget, in countries like the UK - Hospital is free - Food in hospital is free......its all free.

 

In Winter many poor and homeless people will try to get into hospital as its warm and they get free food................some old people who are extremely lonely at home alone try to get into hospital to have contact with other people..................Winter "hospitalisations" in countries with a completely FREE welfare system always have a higher level of "abuse of the system" in winter.

 

People in hospital (eg sick and staying there) BECAUSE of Omicron in the UK is less than 1000 people as of yesterday.

 

The only real "show" of Covid in hospitals is the numbers of patients on Incubators/oxygen support.   Watch only those figures.......thats the tell.

 

Everything else is incidental.

Edited January 1, 2022 by Oracle2022

[Oracle2022]

Lastest data from England.  So cases are pretty much all "incidental"...... Covid is not the cause of nearly all hospitalisations........they are a secondary finding. 

 

".....The number of #Covid19 patients in critical care beds in England is down over the past week - 827 in 7 days to 28/12 vs 878 a week earlier......."

 

 

Omicron should be the beginning of the end for Covid-19 and is the start of the move to being Endemic.   Current day "Flu" is actually the weak mutations of 1918 Spanish Flu..........and in 2122 its highly likely their "flu" will be the weak mutations of 2020 Covid-19.  And so it will be again in 2222 when a new virus from around 2120 will have weakened down again............History repeats itself, that is one thing you can learn from history.

 

It looks like countries need to fully open now - get as much Omicron in as possible - spread it as fast as possible.  The quicker it spreads and everyone gets Omicron the less chance for a new dangerous mutant variant.

 

 

 

 

 

[Thunglom]

7 minutes ago, Oracle2022 said:

he quicker it spreads and everyone gets Omicron the less chance for a new dangerous mutant variant.

Spreading is exactly how it multiplies and then mutates. Te more who catch it, the more chances it has of changing.

Edited January 1, 2022 by Thunglom

[Thunglom]

Just now, Thunglom said:

Spreading is exactly how it multiplies and then mutates.

 

8 minutes ago, Oracle2022 said:

History repeats itself, that is one thing you can learn from history.

if you ever learn from history, you know that is not the case.

[Thunglom]

2 hours ago, Oracle2022 said:

old and weak people die in Winter.

Currently the main people infected with Omicron are the younger age groups. It has not spread to the older over 60s in any numbers yet....wait for a week or two.

[Oracle2022]

22 minutes ago, Thunglom said:

Spreading is exactly how it multiplies and then mutates. Te more who catch it, the more chances it has of changing.

It needs time and the right conditions to mutate.  Why do you think Spanish Flu in 1918 was done in 2 waves ?????

 

No lockdowns.......spread........burn itself out. All over.

 

This is now a 4th wave for Covid - so actually lockdowns are driving more mutations by keeping the virus hanging around. Giving it time to mutate.

 

If you take the very basic and of course, not politically correct, view that had Covid simply been allowed to spread and kill in 2020, its very possible it would all have been over by now......the weak would have perished and the human race would now be stronger.  This "weak" perish has happened many times over in the past many thousands of years.........and has proven effective in the survival of the human race.,

 

 

[Oracle2022]

27 minutes ago, Thunglom said:

 

if you ever learn from history, you know that is not the case.

Depends on your timescale.  100 years, 1000 years......10,000 years.............   

[Cherrytreeview]

41 minutes ago, Oracle2022 said:

It needs time and the right conditions to mutate.  Why do you think Spanish Flu in 1918 was done in 2 waves ?????

 

No lockdowns.......spread........burn itself out. All over.

 

This is now a 4th wave for Covid - so actually lockdowns are driving more mutations by keeping the virus hanging around. Giving it time to mutate.

 

If you take the very basic and of course, not politically correct, view that had Covid simply been allowed to spread and kill in 2020, its very possible it would all have been over by now......the weak would have perished and the human race would now be stronger.  This "weak" perish has happened many times over in the past many thousands of years.........and has proven effective in the survival of the human race.,

 

 

Another day, another series of posts by someone who hasn't a clue what he's talking about.

Bashing the keyboard, giving us all the benefit of his ignorance.

The 1918 pandemic was officially a 3 wave pandemic.

Although some people think it was actually 4, with the fourth wave being the exit wave.

Some people, who actually know what they are talking about, hope this bodes well for this fourth covid wave.

The narrative of viruses always becoming weaker is a false one. I have heard many epidemiologists say that there biggest concern is a mutation as contagious as omicron but much more pathogenic.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/three-waves.htm

 

Feel free now to fill up these cyber pages with more of your "knowledge".

Edited January 1, 2022 by Cherrytreeview
Edit

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, Oracle2022 said:

Lastest data from England.  So cases are pretty much all "incidental"...... Covid is not the cause of nearly all hospitalisations........they are a secondary finding. 

 

Simply not true, links already posted in this thread, incidental covid admissions are running at around 30% max

 

1 hour ago, Oracle2022 said:

It looks like countries need to fully open now - get as much Omicron in as possible - spread it as fast as possible.  The quicker it spreads and everyone gets Omicron the less chance for a new dangerous mutant variant.

No words aside from delusional 

[Thunglom]

33 minutes ago, Oracle2022 said:

It needs time and the right conditions to mutate.  Why do you think Spanish Flu in 1918 was done in 2 waves ?????

There were 3 waves (possibly 4) of Spanish flu with the  R₀ of 1.80 

the  R₀ of omicron Covid is between 3 and 5.