Can we ever rely on high season weather again?

[webfact]

Here in Thailand, February has normally been one of the best months to enjoy no rain, with warm sunshine and cool breezes, all ideal for a great vacation.

Almost like clockwork we got used to celebrating Songkran in mid-April, which signaled the start of the rainy season.

Well, all that seems to have changed as Thailand is currently experiencing a change in seasons.

In Pattaya, for the past week, we have woken up to find dark clouds and no sunshine. 

Then around mid-day, the heavens have opened, and it has been raining constantly for at least 4-5 hrs.

Thunderstorms follow and today we have received a drenching before sunrise.

The forecast for the next ten days predicts thunderstorms, rain mixed with a bit of sun but mainly cloudy.

Changing patterns

Apparently, Thailand has seen a marked increase in temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns over the past thirty years. 

Both changes have a significant effect on food production, particularly rice—the yields of which are essential to national food security.

Thailand is exceptionally vulnerable to minor changes in climate: slightly warmer surface temperatures will destroy the rice crops.

And it is common knowledge that a few centimeters of sea-level rise will submerge the capital city Bangkok and devastate coastal tourism.

Climate Change Impacts 

The impacts of climate change are already evident around the world. 

Thailand, as part of the Mekong River Basin, is struggling to deal with these impacts, which result in part from ecological pressures introduced by large hydropower dams, deforestation, coastal erosion, and urbanization.

In Southeast Asia, Jakarta and Bangkok are sinking fast. 

In fact, the capital of Indonesia is the fastest sinking city in the world—it is sinking at the rate of 6.7 inches per year. 

By 2050, 95% of North Jakarta will be submerged, according to researchers. The region has already sunk 2.5 meters in 10 years and almost half the city is below sea level, which is why they are creating a new capital city elsewhere.

 

Meanwhile, Bangkok, located 0.5–2 metres above sea level, is sinking at a rate of 2–3 centimetres each year.

It is predicted that a large part of the capital city will be underwater by 2030, 2050, or the conservative estimate of 2100.

Are we already experiencing the worst?

The effects of climate change, include higher surface temperatures, floods, droughts, severe storms, and sea level rises.

The damage to agriculture, coastal tourism, and the capital city as consequences of climate change will have enormous economic, cultural, and environmental impacts on Thailand.

Just one degree of warming will destroy the rice crops that are central to the economy, and a few centimeters of sea level rise will submerge the capital city and devastate coastal tourism. 

Thailand’s mitigation and adaptation efforts include a slow shift to organic agriculture, a tsunami warning system along the Andaman Sea, the construction of a flood prevention wall around Bangkok, and an Action Plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles and energy use.

Is it enough though? 

And will the intrepid international vacationer still want to fly away from colder Western climates in the winter, just to arrive to find a lack of sunshine and February downpours in Thailand? 

Could be a great time to set up a shop selling wellington boots, rain capes, and umbrellas!

 

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[timendres]

What is the point of this vapid article?

Weather patterns are just that - patterns.

Guess what? They change from time to time.

[Jenkins9039]

Just going to go out on a limb… I think we are beginning to see the re-rise of the super volcanos (italy-Greece) (pacific) SE-Asia, China sea etc hence some land masses are dropping like stones, and others rising from the depths (entire island rose 50ft in the pacific for example).

Coupled with continued volcanic activity, change of the poles - which would of-course move land masses due to their make up…

Can’t blame everything on global warming, the earth is following its process… just my thoughts…

 

There's even been evidence of volcanic activity in thailand recently under the sea... 

 

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2020/12/new-undersea-supervolcano-possibly-discovered-in-northern-pacific-ocean.html

 

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210730-the-enigma-of-europes-largest-active-volcano

 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2261415/volcanic-pumice-washed-up-on-southern-shore

 

https://www.thedrive.com/news/42802/volcanic-activity-lifts-sunken-wwii-ghost-ships-from-the-ocean-off-iwo-jima

 

https://environment.harvard.edu/news/melting-polar-ice-shifting-earth-itself-not-just-sea-levels

 

https://www.earth.com/news/north-pole-moving/

Edited February 20, 2022 by Jenkins9039

[Kiwithl]

Vapid article. I like that.

Many vapid articles on Asean Now lately.

[rwill]

It can rain any time of the year here in my experience.  Just much more likely in the rainy season.

 

I would also say the last few hot seasons here have not been as hot, less days of 40+ temperatures.  At least where I live.

[VincentRJ]

For anyone who is interested in issues of climate, the first principle to grasp is that climates, or weather patterns, are always changing, and always have throughout the history of our planet. They don't change uniformly across the entire planet. Some areas get more frequent storms, or floods or droughts, during a specified period, whilst other areas get less frequent storms, floods and droughts during the same period.

 

For example, around 10,000 years ago, the Sahara Desert was a flourishing grassland with lots of wildlife.
Some changes in climate are relatively rapid, and some changes are far more gradual. During the past 20,000 years, global sea levels were on average around 120 metres lower than today, which means, on average, sea levels have risen 6 mm per year for the past 20,000 years. However, that's just an average. During certain centuries, sea levels have risen much faster than 6 mm per year, and have fallen by more than 6 mm per year during other centuries in that 20,000 year period.

 

During the past century in our modern era, it is estimated that sea levels have risen between 2 mm and 3 mm per year. That doesn't sound alarming to me. However, when cities close to the sea are sinking at a faster rate than the sea is rising, then that's obviously a problem that has to be tackled, but that has very little to do with 'so-called' man-made climate change, and the idea that we can stop such changes by reducing our CO2 emissions is fanciful propaganda for the uneducated masses. ????

Edited February 21, 2022 by VincentRJ

[spidermike007]

The sceptic will argue that anything we do could not possibly influence the climate, or effect the atmosphere. The planet is simply too large, and the population is too small to have any effect. Let the ships dump whatever they want into the ocean. The ocean is simply too large for anything we do to damage it. 

 

This frees them to buy as many plastic bottles as they please, drive filthy diesel vehicles, and behave as if nothing effects anything. 

 

It's not us. It is just a cycle. We are not responsible. 

Edited February 21, 2022 by spidermike007

[BritManToo]

I prefer it like this.

ZERO pollution in CM so far this year.

But it's only been 'different' for 2 months, a bit soon to be shouting 'the sky is falling'.

[hotchilli]

Buy an EV Jetski... who's worried about BKK sinking?

[KhunLA]

58 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

I prefer it like this.

ZERO pollution in CM so far this year.

But it's only been 'different' for 2 months, a bit soon to be shouting 'the sky is falling'.

Telling the wife the same thing, as very nice air quality this month.  A weekly rain every month, or once a week would be perfect.  Also good for those that rely a bit on saving rainwater.  Everything nice and green again, instead of ugly brown, dusty & crunchy.  

[SAFETY FIRST]

Nothing new. 

 

El Niño impacts weather systems around the globe, triggering predictable disruptions in temperature, rainfall and winds. La Niña is the opposite – a cooling phase of ENSO that tends to have global climate impacts opposite to those of El Niño. 

 

I'm not complaining, I like it 

[shackleton]

It's happening all round the world 

Used to have seasons where weather was the Norm yearly 

Now unpredictable 

One has to adapt 

[2umich]

Don't look up

[Sunnny]

“In Pattaya, for the past week, we have woken up to find dark clouds and no sunshine. “

 

 

Are you really worried about less sunshine in Thailand? Really? If not these (quite rare) cloudy days - the place would be impossible to live in.

 

 

Edited February 21, 2022 by Sunnny

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, VincentRJ said:

For anyone who is interested in issues of climate, the first principle to grasp is that climates, or weather patterns, are always changing, and always have throughout the history of our planet. They don't change uniformly across the entire planet. Some areas get more frequent storms, or floods or droughts, during a specified period, whilst other areas get less frequent storms, floods and droughts during the same period.

 

For example, around 10,000 years ago, the Sahara Desert was a flourishing grassland with lots of wildlife.
Some changes in climate are relatively rapid, and some changes are far more gradual. During the past 20,000 years, global sea levels were on average around 120 metres lower than today, which means, on average, sea levels have risen 6 mm per year for the past 20,000 years. However, that's just an average. During certain centuries, sea levels have risen much faster than 6 mm per year, and have fallen by more than 6 mm per year during other centuries in that 20,000 year period.

 

During the past century in our modern era, it is estimated that sea levels have risen between 2 mm and 3 mm per year. That doesn't sound alarming to me. However, when cities close to the sea are sinking at a faster rate than the sea is rising, then that's obviously a problem that has to be tackled, but that has very little to do with 'so-called' man-made climate change, and the idea that we can stop such changes by reducing our CO2 emissions is fanciful propaganda for the uneducated masses. ????

What's utterly lacking in your comments is the issue of rate of change. Except when it comes to sea levels levels. And there you got it wrong. Badly wrong:

New study finds sea level rise accelerating

The rate of global sea level rise has been accelerating in recent decades, rather than increasing steadily, according to a new study based on 25 years of NASA and European satellite data.

This acceleration, driven mainly by increased melting in Greenland and Antarctica, has the potential to double the total sea level rise projected by 2100 when compared to projections that assume a constant rate of sea level rise, according to lead author Steve Nerem

Nerem is a professor of Aerospace Engineering Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder, a fellow at Colorado's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), and a member of NASA's Sea Level Change team.

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2680/new-study-finds-sea-level-rise-accelerating/

 

Who exactly is saying that "we can stop such changes by reducing our CO2 emissions is fanciful propaganda for the uneducated masses."? Stop distorting what climatologist are saying. 

 

And of course your implicit denial that rising greenhouse gas levels aren't warming the atmosphere and oceans is nonsense in denial of 19 century science when the greenhouse effect of CO2 was first discovered.

[Freddy42OZ]

37 minutes ago, Sunnny said:

“In Pattaya, for the past week, we have woken up to find dark clouds and no sunshine. “

 

 

Are you really worried about less sunshine in Thailand? Really? If not these (quite rare) cloudy days - the place would be impossible to live in.

 

 

Ironic that your name is Sunnny. 

I'd prefer it if there was sunshine all the time, makes it nicer to be outside, warms the water in the pool so it's not too cold to swim, nice to lay in the sun and get a nice tan.  

 

[Whale]

At least the Brit expats will finally have more to talk about :+)

[KannikaP]

1 hour ago, Freddy42OZ said:

nice to lay in the sun and get a nice tan.

And skin cancer.

 

[connda]

Up here in Northern Thailand the weather has been very nice.
By now the air is usually horrid.  But we've been blessed with sunny days with puffy white clouds and relatively good air quality compared to the last decade.  It's pleasant.  Then occasional rain to clean the air. 

Personally, I don't ever want to see "Old Normal" High Season weather again.  Let's just leave it like this! 

[khunPer]

Odd season heavy rain is part of weather, not a climate change. There was also a case in 2011 in Southern part of Thailand, which was said to equalize, or just beat, a 100 year old record, so there were also heavy rain 100 years earlier...

[internationalism]

I see only an advantage to less air pollution, lower temperatures, greenery (including faster and cheaper food production).

I don't think any tourists do complain, as there are non in the country now (that excluding phuket sandboxers).

If thailand is heading for moderate temperatures and precipitation all throughout the year, it would make country more welcoming to tourists through all seasons, not only an overcrowded high season

[placeholder]

5 minutes ago, khunPer said:

Odd season heavy rain is part of weather, not a climate change. There was also a case in 2011 in Southern part of Thailand, which was said to equalize, or just beat, a 100 year old record, so there were also heavy rain 100 years earlier...

Too soon to know one way or the other.

[rott]

10 hours ago, timendres said:

What is the point of this vapid article?

Weather patterns are just that - patterns.

Guess what? They change from time to time.

No, no, we're all doomed to a future of wellies, plastic macs and brollies. The good news is it will be the same for the Russians, Chinese and Indians. We won't be suffering alone. 

[Sunnny]

2 hours ago, Freddy42OZ said:

Ironic that your name is Sunnny. 

I'd prefer it if there was sunshine all the time, makes it nicer to be outside, warms the water in the pool so it's not too cold to swim, nice to lay in the sun and get a nice tan.  

 

Do you live in Thailand permanently?

[HAPPYNUFF]

Today,in NakonNowhere, and  predicted to be the same  for the  next two days, its cold, with a bleak cold wind as well. Ive   got   long pants on, a pullover, and  slippers on, and Im inside the house.Grey skies, but no rain.

[Kinnock]

6 hours ago, Kiwithl said:

Vapid article. I like that.

Many vapid articles on Asean Now lately.

I guess if you're scared of defamation laws, then all that's left is vapidity. (Is that a real word .... it should be).

 

Where are the investigative reporters with guts?

[mancub]

2 hours ago, Whale said:

At least the Brit expats will finally have more to talk about :+)

Yes, turned out nice again today ! 

[jacko45k]

Just now, mancub said:

Yes, turned out nice again today ! 

Been very mild in Pattaya area.. about 30....dark clouds and thunder about now. 

[unblocktheplanet]

Where can I buy one of those inflateables? (No, not her!)

[rickudon]

Reality - in the 12 years i have lived in Thailand, this is at least the 3rd time we have had a prolonged cold spell in February. No other month in my experience has prolonged cold periods, only 2-3 days at most. In fact, the lowest temperature record for Isaan was set during the last few years in February; if i remember that time the cloudy weather lasted 2 weeks.

 

What has been changing is the rainfall pattern and the end of most of the cool nights in the dry season. Watching Thais warm themselves in the morning by a roadside fire just doesn't seem to happen anymore. The tropics have seen little impact from global warming, mainly impacts the temperate and polar regions.