Is Thailand likely to see a mass exodus of expats?

[Gecko123]

6 hours ago, truthman said:

 But for many people, America has become virtually unaffordable, especially for those on a pension. Median house price is now $500,000 and rents have risen correspondingly. Bloomberg recently had an article on people making $250,000 a year living paycheck to paycheck. I guess the only solution is not to live too long!

No doubt about it. But the over inflated housing and stock markets are a direct result of the easy money sloshing around, and there's good reason to believe that the Fed is going to be forced to raise interest rates. I'm convinced there won't be a Powell pivot this time around simply because inflation will remain stubbornly persistent. Climate change (drought, flood, ground water depletion, extreme weather) is going to keep agricultural production costs elevated, and with geopolitical tensions between the US and both Russia and China running hot, there's a pretty good chance that trade in oil and other commodities will be weaponized, thus keeping prices high. So the Fed is going to have to keep tightening even in the face of political pressures to take their foot off the gas pedal.

 

Another reason I think that inflation is going to remain high is that deficit-funded entitlement program distributions are inherently inflationary. Think about it. The government is essentially spending borrowed money to retirees who are primarily using it for consumption. In other words, money is being spent for goods and services without any goods or services being produced to meet that consumption. The money was just borrowed, to be paid off at a future date. That's inherently inflationary, and is another reason why I think inflation is going to be around for a lot longer than people think.

 

The Fed raising interest rates à la Paul Volcker is going to: (1) make bonds more competitive with other asset classes, causing both the stock and real estate markets to severely correct, and (2) raise borrowing costs. The higher cost of capital is going to cause over-leveraged and less profitable businesses to go out of business, and will also drive down real estate prices because the higher borrowing costs will lower housing demand and sellers will have to lower their asking prices to adjust for this. Rising interest rates will also increase the Federal government's borrowing costs, putting even more pressure on the deficit and national debt. Very politically unpalatable, but, again, because of these persistent inflationary pressures, the Fed's hand is going to be forced.

 

But suppose for a moment that the Fed and the Federal government decide they can't stomach the political pain of raising rates, consider what would happen then.

 

Inflation would continue to rage because of inflationary pressures and easy money. Housing would continue to go through the roof, causing it to become less and less affordable, further putting pressure on the social fabric, leading to social unrest. Because so much of household wealth is tied up in real estate, those with homes would benefit from rising real estate values, but everyone else, including renters, would suffer, and wealth inequality would increase. But eventually, the easy money fueled bubbles in the stock market and real estate markets would burst because of easy money fueled unsustainable borrowing. When that happens, so much uncontrollable damage will be inflicted on the US economy that government revenues will drop dramatically, wreaking further havoc on the government's finances.  So it's really a question of whether you want to try to manage the popping of the bubble with interest rate hikes, or, dangerously, just let the bubble continue inflating and pop on its own. Inflation rearing it's ugly little head means there's no more kicking the can down the road.

 

I think what's going to happen is that interest rates are going to have to go up considerably (above the nominal rate of inflation), and this is going to have a very detrimental effect on the economy. The economy will slow down dramatically and asset prices will fall. Higher government borrowing costs (due to rising interest rates) as well as reduced government revenues (due to a slowing economy) will put pressure on fiscal finances to such a degree that entitlement programs will have to be scaled back. I ultimately anticipate a Japan-style 'lost decade or two" for the US, entailing deflation, economic stagnation, reduced wages, reduced benefit programs, and higher taxes. In other words, a long period of time is going to be needed to clean up the monetary and fiscal mess we're in now.

 

A gloomy forecast, but this is what I'm seeing lies ahead.

Edited June 9, 2022 by Gecko123

[Caldera]

The headline says expats, but the article is actually about snowbirds. It obviously makes very little sense to mix those up.

[internationalism]

the last few days, over holiday weekend, I went to Jomtien. Certainly, less senior foreign walkers/joggers on the beach than at the end of 2020 and the last year, but more younger one, touristy, in large part Russians.

 

So they went to their home countries, to see their kids and grandchildren, but I have no doubt they will come back faster, than they went. Thailand and the rest of the world are just opening post-covid, giving chance to see families.

I don't think a return airfare of 10k baht higher would prevent anybody long term coming back to thailand.

 

 

[Andycoops]

I have no intention of going anywhere else unless of course the already absurd immigration laws and visas get even more onerous than they currently are.

[mosan]

On 6/8/2022 at 3:31 PM, bert bloggs said:

Thats because most of those were here working and did not marry the first bar girl who said hello,but women they met other ways,like through work

Describes my situation exactly. Me and mostly every friend I have here are married to Thai women that are within one or three years of our own age. 

[mosan]

On 6/8/2022 at 3:42 PM, JoseThailand said:

The funny thing is that those grandmas are old bar girls lol

As a matter of fact, a lot of them are. However, they are nothing like the old fat arrogant birds found in the US, UK and other western nations! Quite more palatable I might add.

[Hummin]

3 minutes ago, mosan said:

As a matter of fact, a lot of them are. However, they are nothing like the old fat arrogant birds found in the US, UK and other western nations! Quite more palatable I might add.

The thing is, everyone seems to be kicking somewhere, something and somebody to make them feel better! 

 

No matter who it is about!

[peter zwart]

On 6/8/2022 at 5:49 AM, bkk6060 said:

I think it is just the opposite more want, and will come here.

It is literally 4 to 5 times more expensive to live in my home country now then here.  If a person has a fully paid off house or can stay for free with family back home, then I guess they can consider  it   Otherwise, most of the living expenses listed are way way up in western countries now compared to here.  Not to mention, all the political issues with hate being at an all time high.  And for men, younger attractive female company is non existent.

I am very happy remaining here thanks, go back once a year for a month to visit family that is more then enough.

i couldnt agree more

[Wrwest]

On 6/8/2022 at 5:49 AM, bkk6060 said:

I think it is just the opposite more want, and will come here.

It is literally 4 to 5 times more expensive to live in my home country now then here.  If a person has a fully paid off house or can stay for free with family back home, then I guess they can consider  it   Otherwise, most of the living expenses listed are way way up in western countries now compared to here.  Not to mention, all the political issues with hate being at an all time high.  And for men, younger attractive female company is non existent.

I am very happy remaining here thanks, go back once a year for a month to visit family that is more then enough.

Certainly agree that the economic pressures on the working middle class will not abate and thus lower costs countries will not only be attractive but increasingly necessary.

[The Hammer2021]

On 6/8/2022 at 1:25 PM, GrandPapillon said:

I am starting to see expats living 10+ years in Thailand leaving this place in the last 2 years,

 

same in China, in particular Shanghai where it's an absolute nightmare

 

this is what happens when you let authoritarian governments micro-manage your life

Ip understand people leaving China but not Thailand and where dop they go?

[The Hammer2021]

3 hours ago, Andycoops said:

I have no intention of going anywhere else unless of course the already absurd immigration laws and visas get even more onerous than they currently are.

I have top renew mine once a year

[The Hammer2021]

6 hours ago, Gecko123 said:

No doubt about it. But the over inflated housing and stock markets are a direct result of the easy money sloshing around, and there's good reason to believe that the Fed is going to be forced to raise interest rates. I'm convinced there won't be a Powell pivot this time around simply because inflation will remain stubbornly persistent. Climate change (drought, flood, ground water depletion, extreme weather) is going to keep agricultural production costs elevated, and with geopolitical tensions between the US and both Russia and China running hot, there's a pretty good chance that trade in oil and other commodities will be weaponized, thus keeping prices high. So the Fed is going to have to keep tightening even in the face of political pressures to take their foot off the gas pedal.

 

Another reason I think that inflation is going to remain high is that deficit-funded entitlement program distributions are inherently inflationary. Think about it. The government is essentially spending borrowed money to retirees who are primarily using it for consumption. In other words, money is being spent for goods and services without any goods or services being produced to meet that consumption. The money was just borrowed, to be paid off at a future date. That's inherently inflationary, and is another reason why I think inflation is going to be around for a lot longer than people think.

 

The Fed raising interest rates à la Paul Volcker is going to: (1) make bonds more competitive with other asset classes, causing both the stock and real estate markets to severely correct, and (2) raise borrowing costs. The higher cost of capital is going to cause over-leveraged and less profitable businesses to go out of business, and will also drive down real estate prices because the higher borrowing costs will lower housing demand and sellers will have to lower their asking prices to adjust for this. Rising interest rates will also increase the Federal government's borrowing costs, putting even more pressure on the deficit and national debt. Very politically unpalatable, but, again, because of these persistent inflationary pressures, the Fed's hand is going to be forced.

 

But suppose for a moment that the Fed and the Federal government decide they can't stomach the political pain of raising rates, consider what would happen then.

 

Inflation would continue to rage because of inflationary pressures and easy money. Housing would continue to go through the roof, causing it to become less and less affordable, further putting pressure on the social fabric, leading to social unrest. Because so much of household wealth is tied up in real estate, those with homes would benefit from rising real estate values, but everyone else, including renters, would suffer, and wealth inequality would increase. But eventually, the easy money fueled bubbles in the stock market and real estate markets would burst because of easy money fueled unsustainable borrowing. When that happens, so much uncontrollable damage will be inflicted on the US economy that government revenues will drop dramatically, wreaking further havoc on the government's finances.  So it's really a question of whether you want to try to manage the popping of the bubble with interest rate hikes, or, dangerously, just let the bubble continue inflating and pop on its own. Inflation rearing it's ugly little head means there's no more kicking the can down the road.

 

I think what's going to happen is that interest rates are going to have to go up considerably (above the nominal rate of inflation), and this is going to have a very detrimental effect on the economy. The economy will slow down dramatically and asset prices will fall. Higher government borrowing costs (due to rising interest rates) as well as reduced government revenues (due to a slowing economy) will put pressure on fiscal finances to such a degree that entitlement programs will have to be scaled back. I ultimately anticipate a Japan-style 'lost decade or two" for the US, entailing deflation, economic stagnation, reduced wages, reduced benefit programs, and higher taxes. In other words, a long period of time is going to be needed to clean up the monetary and fiscal mess we're in now.

 

A gloomy forecast, but this is what I'm seeing lies ahead.

Could  you enlarge  on that  please?

[The Hammer2021]

On 6/8/2022 at 5:49 AM, bkk6060 said:

I think it is just the opposite more want, and will come here.

It is literally 4 to 5 times more expensive to live in my home country now then here.  If a person has a fully paid off house or can stay for free with family back home, then I guess they can consider  it   Otherwise, most of the living expenses listed are way way up in western countries now compared to here.  Not to mention, all the political issues with hate being at an all time high.  And for men, younger attractive female company is non existent.

I am very happy remaining here thanks, go back once a year for a month to visit family that is more then enough.

You are correct more people are coming here. The only people leaving are broke, I'll or failed. UK residents can't retire so easily in Europe now. Britain and Europe getting more expensive and toxic  identitarian  politics making places intolerant. Thailand  remains an all round best option.  AND Expats from Asia  and the Middle  retire  here. The majority  of working expats in the world  are Asian.

[Hummin]

1 hour ago, The Hammer2021 said:

You are correct more people are coming here. The only people leaving are broke, I'll or failed. UK residents can't retire so easily in Europe now. Britain and Europe getting more expensive and toxic  identitarian  politics making places intolerant. Thailand  remains an all round best option.  AND Expats from Asia  and the Middle  retire  here. The majority  of working expats in the world  are Asian.

Or have other options! Doesn't need to be broke leaving Thailand.

 

After a few years there is more reasons to leave than stay, but if you rooted here with a decent girl and a farm, then you have a very good reason to stay at least, but we are now aiming now for more than 180 days back in Europe to secure here permanent stay. 

 

Then we have better options for both us for the future.

[The Hammer2021]

11 minutes ago, Hummin said:

Or have other options! Doesn't need to be broke leaving Thailand.

 

After a few years there is more reasons to leave than stay, but if you rooted here with a decent girl and a farm, then you have a very good reason to stay at least, but we are now aiming now for more than 180 days back in Europe to secure here permanent stay. 

 

Then we have better options for both us for the future.

Thanks for  your reply. I have neither farm or girl. I am retired. But I kept  my house in the UK and return for a summer holiday  every year. But that's not leaving Thailand as part of an exodus.  Do you consider your 180 days a year in Europe as permanently leaving Thailand as part of an Exodus?

[garyk]

14 hours ago, jerrymahoney said:

Good night. Pleasant dreams -- of any place but Thailand.

 

You must remember this
A kiss is just a kiss
A sigh is just a sigh
The fundamental things apply
As long as they aren't Thai

Poor baby, Stuck in Thailand are we..

I know I wait on bated breath for your every post. 

Just gosh awful nice to see your here, just gosh awful..

[J Branche]

No time to read all the post.  Inflation and currency fluctuations causing strength or weakness are happening all over the globe.  If you can't afford to live in Thailand than you have to ask why.  Each individual's circumstances are different for choosing why they live somewhere. Climate, quality of life, affordable health care, ability to afford things they otherwise may not be able to afford to buy or do as often in their home country, ability to find a partner, ability to live life without social or government restrictions or pressures.  

 

Thailand is one of the most talked about countries all over the globe.  It will continue to attract tourist, retires, and businesses.  Once you understand the culture, learn some Thai, and understand how things work to some degree life is great.

[mania]

On 6/8/2022 at 2:35 PM, truthman said:

 But for many people, America has become virtually unaffordable, especially for those on a pension. Median house price is now $500,000 and rents have risen correspondingly. Bloomberg recently had an article on people making $250,000 a year living paycheck to paycheck. I guess the only solution is not to live too long!

Yeah but the truth is most who went the classic route of working & buying early are not in any problematic situation now. In fact quite the opposite. They can rent out their paid for home & retire to places like Thailand or elsewhere

 

Folks who complain about the things you just did...are like what? Dropped from the stork when they were 50?

No instead they are usually those who had their cake early in life & now complain it is too expensive back home

 

I am not saying you were wrong to not invest & not work hard when younger but I am saying don't complain now ????

 

 

[Gecko123]

 

 

1 hour ago, mania said:

Yeah but the truth is most who went the classic route of working & buying early are not in any problematic situation now. In fact quite the opposite. They can rent out their paid for home & retire to places like Thailand or elsewhere

 

Folks who complain about the things you just did...are like what? Dropped from the stork when they were 50?

No instead they are usually those who had their cake early in life & now complain it is too expensive back home

 

I am not saying you were wrong to not invest & not work hard when younger but I am saying don't complain now ????

 

 

I found your post laughably self-congratulatory.

 

The US housing market is grotesquely over-inflated by historical standards due to central bank policies, and many extremely hard-working and intelligent people have been priced out of the the market through no fault of their own. As the Fed is forced to reverse it's disastrous zero interest rate and QE policies, hopefully the housing market will have a long over-due correction.

 

As the Fed takes steps to correct its past mistakes, one can only hope that a ripple effect will be that that look of smug self-satisfaction will be wiped off your face as well.

 

Edited June 10, 2022 by Gecko123

[mania]

12 hours ago, Gecko123 said:

As the Fed takes steps to correct its past mistakes, one can only hope that a ripple effect will be that that look of smug self-satisfaction will be wiped off your face as well.

 

555 You think we have not seen this before? You think we have not lived thru insanely overpriced homes? Interest rates so high we actually made money on savings?

You think we have not seen hundreds of banks failing per year while the FED printed 80 billion+ a month over & over & over

Puleeze grow up & wipe the drool off your face as well

[DrPhibes]

On 6/8/2022 at 2:02 PM, Pattaya Spotter said:

I knew my post would bring out the America haters. Funny we're not all still using Nokia phones and driving Volvo/Saab cars, and all our computers and phones running on Erickson networks and software, and everyone shopping at IKEA online. Switzerland the land of chocolate, watches, and bank fraud/tax evasion; and South Korea the suicide capitol of the world...good social model there. Yes, America has 30T in debt BECAUSE foreigners can't get enough of it and every Treasury Department debt auction is massively oversubscribed.  It seems like you are the only one concerned about this debt. The rest of the world knows there's no other place that's a better store of value than the Dollar, which is backed up by the biggest and most innovative economy in the world.

Dated, but still true:

 

 

[Hummin]

14 minutes ago, DrPhibes said:

Dated, but still true:

 

 

Great propaganda, how on earth could USA give away everything for free, and still get the biggest economy in the world? A miracle?

 

 

[DrPhibes]

8 minutes ago, Hummin said:

Great propaganda, how on earth could USA give away everything for free, and still get the biggest economy in the world? A miracle?

 

 

Yes, a miracle. A miracle called a fair chance at a better life.  The US is the center of innovation because it promises the opportunity to work hard/SMART and be rewarded for your efforts with a better life than the country you left.  That better life comes back to the US in the way of taxes on your earnings that fuel the efforts world wide of promoting a better life in the US indirectly through the US efforts to help abroad.  There is a kind of morality in this.  The smart and motivated come to the US for that very reason.  It is generally a fair deal.  One they do not generally get in their home countries.  I have financed 2 of my wife's brothers in college here in Thailand only to find there are very few jobs they can use their education for at graduation.  This is because they are not "connected".  A lot of jobs here are obtained by who you know, not what you know (government jobs especially).  Thailand is not singular in this respect. 

 

Wife just watched an interview yesterday of Thais graduating from colleges overseas and if they were going to return to help Thailand progress, while polite in their response, none interviewed were coming back.  Did you know that at one time the US provided pencils to Russia because the communist system could not provide nearly enough for their schools.  The pencils had the Statue of Liberty embossed on them! 

 

The US is not perfect, no society has ever been.  But it has been instrumental at the promotion of the progress of the world.  Had there not been a certain amount of moral obligation in the US society to do this the US could have set itself up as the only advanced civilization after world war ll and suppressed all others from ever developing.  It's geographical location and natural resources could have easily created such a scenario. 

 

Yes right now there are problems in the US, all societies go through ups and downs, but generally, Americans are a decent bunch.

 

Hope all well with everyone!

[Hummin]

1 minute ago, DrPhibes said:

Yes, a miracle. A miracle called a fair chance at a better life.  The US is the center of innovation because it promises the opportunity to work hard/SMART and be rewarded for your efforts with a better life than the country you left.  That better life comes back to the US in the way of taxes on your earnings that fuel the efforts world wide of promoting a better life in the US indirectly through the US efforts to help abroad.  There is a kind of morality in this.  The smart and motivated come to the US for that very reason.  It is generally a fair deal.  One they do not generally get in their home countries.  I have financed 2 of my wife's brothers in college here in Thailand only to find there are very few jobs they can use their education for at graduation.  This is because they are not "connected".  A lot of jobs here are obtained by who you know, not what you know (government jobs especially).  Thailand is not singular in this respect. 

 

Wife just watched an interview yesterday of Thais graduating from colleges overseas and if they were going to return to help Thailand progress, while polite in their response, none interviewed were coming back.  Did you know that at one time the US provided pencils to Russia because the communist system could not provide nearly enough for their schools.  The pencils had the Statue of Liberty embossed on them! 

 

The US is not perfect, no society has ever been.  But it has been instrumental at the promotion of the progress of the world.  Had there not been a certain amount of moral obligation in the US society to do this the US could have set itself up as the only advanced civilization after world war ll and suppressed all others from ever developing.  It's geographical location and natural resources could have easily created such a scenario. 

 

Yes right now there are problems in the US, all societies go through ups and downs, but generally, Americans are a decent bunch.

 

Hope all well with everyone!

Great post, but we all benefits from each other in way or other, so solely stand alone is not how you grow! 

 

Unfortunate we sold out to India, China and more, that's what made us weaker, not greater

[mania]

7 hours ago, DrPhibes said:

  That better life comes back to the US in the way of taxes on your earnings that fuel the efforts world wide of promoting a better life in the US indirectly through the US efforts to help abroad.  There is a kind of morality in this.  The smart and motivated come to the US for that very reason.  It is generally a fair deal. 

Very True

My wife even before she became a US citizen was immediately give a work permit & SS# way back when she was just on a 2 year green card(temp residence)

 

That is how the US rolls & as you say it comes back to them in a form of taxes

 

Same later in her 3rd year which was one year into her 10 year green card (permanent residence) she was allowed to take the US citizenship test which she did & passed.

She now has been a Dual US/Thai citizen for over 12 years & will gain some benefits of that later in life thru her US SS income not to mention everything she has been given in rights & benefits, stimulus etc etc since then

[jerrymahoney]

On 6/9/2022 at 10:24 PM, garyk said:

Poor baby, Stuck in Thailand are we..

I know I wait on bated breath for your every post. 

Just gosh awful nice to see your here, just gosh awful..

Not stuck. Korean Air business class to Atlanta any time I want. (after next one, I get a freebee)

 

But I do look forward to your near daily Thailand put-down almost like a jones.