Fears for the baht as it hits a 15-year low and Thai economic performance in the medium term

[AnotherFarang8]

If baht goes down, short-time price will go up because inflation. So who wins?

[robsamui]

4 hours ago, shackleton said:

For those of us who transfer Sterling pounds to Thailand 

I think is wishful thinking for  the Baht rate getting more for the pound

The UK economy  is in a mess cost of living. Fuel food. Now strikes people wanting  more pay 

I can only see the pound suffering against the American $ and Thai Baht 

Hope I am wrong time will tell ????

 

Yep - I've come to this conclusion myself, after wondering for months why the Thai economy is weakening yet I'm still getting the same (or worse!) Sterling EX rate.

All economies are shaky now, what with the effects of Covid and the Ukraine situation, so now everything hinges around which economy is comparatively more fugged, not which one is performing better!

[DjSilver]

Let's go lower ????????????????????

[Kwaibill]

8 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Total garbage article. The baht is not at a 15 years low, it was 36.3 to the US-$ back in October 2015.

I was going to say, that was when I used 35 baht/dollar when estimating finances.

[Sydebolle]

Well, might kick off exports nicely then ........... Question is, how does the trade balance look like. 

[DustyShoes]

7 hours ago, alex8912 said:

This piece of &@$? article just said the baht should get stronger when more tourists come at the end of the year!!  <deleted>!

Actually it said there'd be a "rebound" -- not the same as a stronger baht. What they're saying -- and I agree -- is the baht will have a technical bounce in the near-term (because of the obvious 2009/2015 lows) and it will be convenient to attribute it to tourism because of the timing. The "rebound" will be short-lived, however, as downward pressure kicks back in. This is their bigger concern.

 

The article is primarily looking at the long-term outlook and the 15-year support area being breached. Although the headline is a bit misguided -- the baht isn't at that level just yet, though quickly approaching it -- the concern is not.

 

IMHO, odds favor it WILL bust, then it's look out below!... 3-5yrs of weak baht and shi**y economy. Smaller odds the bounce will catch fire and things turn around. We'll find out soon enough.

[EricTh]

As long as the current government keep posting announcements that they can change their minds frequently, people aren't too confident on the economy.

 

[Saanim]

3 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Time for a change of leadership?

Ask all the exporters whether they complain getting now 10 - 15% more Baht for their shipments and the tourists industries enjoying the increased guests inflow encouraged by the the low Baht.

[Saanim]

11 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand faces significant problems in the medium term with an ageing population, a record level of household debt and ongoing political instability. These issues are believed to be the underlying reason for the kingdom’s lacklustre economic performance since 2018 which, because of the pandemic crisis, has seen the country’s growth stalled since then as its peers in Asia and Southeast Asia move forward.

Wondering how many of the 70 million population are getting this worries?  ("as its peers in Asia and Southeast Asia move forward").

[Kwaibill]

All very confusing to "a bear of little (remaining) brain". I know my wife was happy when I gave her a few thousand more baht than usual this month, and that's what counts; "Happy wife, happy life".

[bkk6060]

I would bet before it hits 40 it will hit 30.  This may be a good time to transfer lump sums if you had large purchases pending.

[hotchilli]

31 minutes ago, Saanim said:

Ask all the exporters whether they complain getting now 10 - 15% more Baht for their shipments and the tourists industries enjoying the increased guests inflow encouraged by the the low Baht.

Not complaining now, but what about the last years they've suffered at the strangely well maintained baht.

[bkk6060]

1 hour ago, AnotherFarang8 said:

So who wins?

People with proper pensions that cover increases in inflation.

[ThailandRyan]

20 minutes ago, Kwaibill said:

All very confusing to "a bear of little (remaining) brain". I know my wife was happy when I gave her a few thousand more baht than usual this month, and that's what counts; "Happy wife, happy life"

Until the day she can no longer get be made happy when the baht returns to being Teflon and our USD goes back to 29 baht per $1.........That will be the time I let the housekeeper go....which won't make my GF happy... 

[Isaan sailor]

Congrats to the Bank of Thailand.  They talked the USD down to 35.29 today.  Gotta love currency manipulation, right?

[ThailandRyan]

Just now, Isaan sailor said:

Congrats to the Bank of Thailand.  They talked the USD down to 35.29 today.  Gotta love currency manipulation, right?

Amazing Thailand.  

[Harveyboy]

10 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Total garbage article. The baht is not at a 15 years low, it was 36.3 to the US-$ back in October 2015.

still terrible against the euro...where is the weak Baht ..please

[Harveyboy]

38 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

People with proper pensions that cover increases in inflation.

not for British..not covered against inflation with our pensions..work us to death give us a pittance 

[Jimjim1]

10 hours ago, jacko45k said:

Then you are missing a few shillings if you think that reflects solely baht performance. 

When did he say that!

I understood him to be generalising.

[ThailandRyan]

40 minutes ago, Harveyboy said:

not for British..not covered against inflation with our pensions..work us to death give us a pittance 

Same with my Government Pension from the US, COLA raise given just once in May of each year....not keeping up with the true inflation there, but thankfully with the current exchange rate its keeping me ahead of the curve here.

[Isaan sailor]

1 hour ago, Harveyboy said:

not for British..not covered against inflation with our pensions..work us to death give us a pittance 

I heard you Brits can return for a pension raise.  If so, why not book a r/t flight and reap your reward.

[Fairynuff]

7 hours ago, crazykopite said:

billions are being invested into the U.K. markets by major companies relocating from overseas

That’s true, but not compared to how much is leaving 

[Autonuaq]

9 hours ago, KhunBENQ said:

And Baht still not weak enough compared to the madhouse Euro.

37.4 would have sound like a nightmare when I left Euroland.

in 2009 the THB was 50 for a Euro. Today is is 37.4 for a Euro

[Saanim]

4 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Not complaining now, but what about the last years they've suffered at the strangely well maintained baht.

Still not so bad as before when the Baht was pegged for the decades with 25 to $, until it was changed one night.  One of "the least complaining" was a certain Mr. T. who happened to be a finance minister.   

[Saanim]

4 hours ago, Harveyboy said:

still terrible against the euro...where is the weak Baht ..please

If one currency is to be very weak, another one should be a strong one... (Or in some cases both of them are weak)

[Dumbfounded]

12 hours ago, Old Croc said:

The AUD was buying 1.05 USD in April 2013.

 

My superannuation scheme has just announced a rise of 3.5% following interest rate rises in Australia.

AUD to THB was above 33 back in 2012 as the GFC took it's toll on the USD. Howard had Aust in surplus and so we leapfrogged the USD for a while, shame it didn't last longer. I moved from Oz in 2013 and was only getting around 28 by then, now just over 24

[Mike k]

15 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

35.46 Thb to $1 this morning, not sure why it dropped, but lets see what happens when the banks open.  Waiting on 36 to transfer a chunk needed for a purchase.

It would be nice if it hit 40 to the dollar by July 3rd 

[Mike k]

5 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Same with my Government Pension from the US, COLA raise given just once in May of each year....not keeping up with the true inflation there, but thankfully with the current exchange rate its keeping me ahead of the curve here.

That's how I am with my SS 

[parafareno]

15 hours ago, KhunBENQ said:

And Baht still not weak enough compared to the madhouse Euro.

37.4 would have sound like a nightmare when I left Euroland.

37 is good for euro...when I was in thailand in 2019 it was 33 thb per euro..i was going crazy

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

16 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

That's a reason to play the FX game and transfer as it rises and then transfer back as it descends.  

you can open a foreign currency account in thailand